notin
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Everything posted by notin
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If talks for Kelly we’re going anywhere at the time, the Sox likely wouldn’t have pivoted to Dustin May…
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Like when they gave away Christian Vazquez and received nothing in return except Wilyer Abreu…
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
notin replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
And it’s acceptable for a one hit wonder band. But how good is it for a switch-hitting lawnmower? -
Did Schwarber change anything? His K% and O-Swing% are both within a 3% range over the last 5 years. His K% is down 0.5% from last year, but his chase percentage is slightly up. Schwarber has always been a patient hitter with decent plate discipline, which is why his OBP is usually .100 or so more than his BA. But he does still have significant swing and miss in his game…
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Or move to Antarctica, where the nights are 6 months long…
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Most players who improve take years to do so. It’s not like the coaching staff can just say “today we’re going to work on cutting down our chase rates.” Slower MLB pitchers throw the ball across the plate in 0.4 seconds, meaning a hitter really has maybe 0.2 seconds to decide if a pitch is hittable. It’s not just a matter of coaching to get hitters to make better decisions in a 0.2 second window when they’ve been doing this most of their lives. If it was as easy as just coaching them, it would have already been done and no one would ever swing at a bad pitch…
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“Every table has a stupidest player…”
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LOL It’s like getting poker advice from Kenny Rogers. ”You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.” No s***…
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Wha about those supported by AI? I’ve learned recently ChatGPT, for example is remarkably bad at selective baseball stats. I didn’t have time to check every player later, but I looked at two on Fangraphs and found the numbers in that response to be fictional. Dansby Swanson, for example, has a K% of 28% this year, up (not down) from 24% last year. His chase rate was not significantly down, either, going from 24.2% to 24%. Pete Alonso’s K% is slightly down this year, but his O-Swing is up. But both are hovering right around his career norms. Your conclusion is not supported by the provided facts…
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It’s really the same thing. Hitters are swinging at bad pitches because they don’t have time to realize they are bad pitches until it’s too late. But your solution is “start realizing it sooner!!” ? Can it be done? Maybe , but it’s far from being that simple.. Hundreds of hitters have tried it and the results are almost universally what I said would happen. I wasn’t making a prediction; I was recapping history…
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They are more likely to miss than they are to be Vlad Guerrero Sr. This is true. But hitters have tried to change their approach before by reducing chase rate. And this gets implemented by taking more pitches. It’s all they can really do. When hitters take more pitches, they also take more strikes. You’re probably going to cut down on swinging third strikes, but also increase taken third strikes. But on the bright side - lower chase rate!
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Those are two different asks - reducing chase rate AND striking out less. They are not related, and reducing chase rate is more likely to increase strike outs than decrease them. They are not problem here is you expect one type of hitter to seamlessly morph into a completely different type of hitter. This is more likely to go wrong than go right…
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
notin replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
That’s because ZiPS is useless. Not as useless as PECOTA. Steamer is pretty bad, too. The only good projection system ever developed is the WAPM. I think we can (and should) all agree on that… -
But would that have stopped Cora from platooning Williams, hyperbolically speaking?
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He’s their Roman Anthony. Bear in mind the A’s expect to open the 2028 season in Las Vegas and shed their small market economy. As Kurtz will either be in his first arb year that year or the next, they might not have as much fear about affording him as they would if they stayed in Oakland. Simply put, Kurtz is not a solution for the Sox any time soon…
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Except that most hitters reduce their chase rate by taking more pitches, which includes taking more strikes along with more balls. In the end, they often simply replace swinging third strikes with called third strikes…
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Moderators can put people on ignore?
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Or anyone else. His contract demands were never insane, but no one ever met them. San Diego had a couple team-friendly team options and they still declined him. Either his health history is very frightening or he is one insufferable SOB…
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No one talked about OPS in 1939. Stop ruining the hyperbolic examples…
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Does this attitude make the collapses more tolerable or just allow you to say “I told you so?” I get the George Will benefits of pessimism - that you’re constantly either proven correct or pleasantly surprised. But if you follow that credo, it does mean you’re prioritizing being proven correct over personal enjoyment. Personally, I’d rather enjoy the good times. The bad times are going to suck regardless of whether or not I expect them…
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As long as we have Cora, Abreu will be platooned. Cora has some religious convictions about letting left-handed hitters face left-handed pitchers if it can be avoided. If Cora had managed the Sox in the 1940s, I truly believe he would have platooned Ted Williams in LF with Pete Fox…
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Toro’s success was brief, as it is every year. But Romy has been a revelation…
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Well I did a Google search on “David Hamilton Luis Castillo trade” and my top match was a Talksox thread about Seattle exploring Castillo trades. David Hamilton did eventually get mentioned by drewski (who, as far as I know, works for neither team) but not so much as a legitimate proposal. And there were numerous replies from harmony extolling the virtues of Dylan Moore. I have serious doubts this trade was ever proposed by either team, and might just be something we fabricated here…
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As opposed to Eaton and Nick Sogard?
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No way they included Reynolds on that offer!!
