notin
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Everything posted by notin
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Moneyball and the mechanization and computerization of MLB
notin replied to Maxbialystock's topic in Other Baseball
Ah great. The Illuminati Conspiracy Theories come to baseball. While teams do use and, in some cases, overuse analytics, to think they have become the sole decision making tactic and that teams are paying millions of dollars to managers to act as figureheads is just silly. But this is how many people lash out against strategies they don’t understand and are therefore skeptical of... -
Moneyball and the mechanization and computerization of MLB
notin replied to Maxbialystock's topic in Other Baseball
So why even have a manager? Scapegoat reasons? -
Oh I think it was obvious the Dodgers did not want to include a pitching prospect. Heck, they didn’t seem to want to give up anyone whose path to playing time wasn’t blocked (Verdugo by Betts. Downs by Lux)....
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Oh. I though your post said “doesn’t.” Can you go back and edit it to say “doesn’t” so my response makes more sense? Thanks in advance...
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He should be on the radar. Not sure I go all in to $100 mill for a KBO player, though...
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No. You should spend it when you need to, but not just because. Should the Yankees go all in for, say, Bauer, Springer and Realmuto without considering future arb/extension costs for Judge and Torres?
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Well, you can only trade him to a team that wants him. Was anyone else interested? (Unlike Lester, Mookie already had a prohibitive $25 mill salary.) And do you think they should have avoided te Dodgers even if their offer was far superior to any others?
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Well, not exactly. The thought process was the Sox best chance to sign him to an extension was to trade him first, because they were not going to be able to afford him without resetting and they were not going to be able to reset without dealing Mookie, Price or both. That's not really the same as saying "we can deal him and re-sign him." The fallacy (given everything we know/suspect) was that the Sox could NOT deal him and just re-sign him...
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What prospects do the Sox have at third? Dalbec is already in MLB and likely to start in the opposite corner spot than Devers (align them how you like). Blaze Jordan in 17 and has yet to make a single professional at-bat. If he makes the majors, it won't be for so long, Devers might already reach free agency. And that assumes he makes it at all...
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Why not? Lindor has one season left. Carrasco has 2 plus a team option. Lindor plays a position the Sox have filled for a minimum of 2 more seasons. Carrasco fills their biggest need. Lindor will undoubtedly cost more in prospects than Carrasco, although both might be out of the Sox price range in this department. (BTV lists Lindor's value surplus at $36 million and Carrasco's at $4.9 million). Lindor is certainly the far better player and much more capable of making an impact, but his shorter deal and much higher salary makes for a tough argument for the last place Sox who still need a ton of pitching help...
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This is very possible. He might have simply wanted out for any of a number of reasons. In which case, Bloom made a tremendous move. However, unless Mookie had this attitude early on, which he may or may not have, should a GM take into consideration his potential future earnings when budgeting the team?
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I could go back and find all of his payrolls. Although at some point a $170 mill payroll itself becomes excessive. And it also matters what is considered a successful season. But would you agree that a good M can build a team with a budgets of $180 milliion or less?
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Moneyball and the mechanization and computerization of MLB
notin replied to Maxbialystock's topic in Other Baseball
Your original premise was thw it was all based on the computer. From your OP: What did matter is that the computer told him that the third time through the batting order is fraught with peril--indeed, hopeless--no matter how well the starter is pitching. The computer also did not care that Anderson, the guy who came in, was tired and had an ERA of over 7 (which became 9) in this WS. And, if the computer didn't care, Kevin Cash didn't either. And neither does the Rays hierarchy. What was it Humphrey Bogart said near the end of the movie, The African Queen? "The Germans have their systems and they sticks to 'em." Also - the title of the thread. Situational awareness aside, do you think Cash lived and died by what his computer said? Or did he just make bad calls based on the previous outcomes and how he managed all season long? -
None of which counters my point...
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I started this whole "Won't be able to sign Betts" point when Price signed. But yes, that also should have been a consideration....
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I've been spinning that angle since December, 2015. And guess what? It happened...
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He did do something no other Cubs GM/President has been able to do since Teddy Roosevelt was President and the United States had only 46 states in it..
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While possible, I do not think either player would welcome the move. And really, while Lindor absolutely is getting dealt, he is not going to be given away (unlike Hand, apparently). Not sure the Sox can outbid some of the other teams that should be interested. Like the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers. Now Carrasco fills a bigger need for the Sox and might be available...
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Exactly my point/theory...
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How? now whether or not Betts was willing to sign is one thing, but you cannot argue that the previous budget was irrelevant to signing him. If the Sox had a much lower payroll - say one without Price and Sale - do you think it is possible that they meet Betts' initial demands? Or were they walking away no matter without taking that in to consideration?
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While they both spent oodles of money, both have also built winners without spending $180 million. Friedman built some extremely good teams in Tampa for far less. The 2016 Cubs had a payroll closer to $170 million, and had only 3 players on the team inherited by Epstein (Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, and Matt Cszur)...
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Henry has always said he is a Basebell Guy. But at the end of the day, he does not want to spend $240mill and miss the post-season. And at some point, pouring more money on to Betts makes a situation where even making the post-season still creates a money-losing venture. I don't know where Henry stands agaist other owners regarding net worth. But his willingness to spend has been a godsend for this franchise, and if he suddenly reaches that limit and won't allow any more spending - which he has done before - I really can't blame him. And as Dombrowski is an experienced GM, he needs to know how far he can take an owner's budget. And since he has worked with Henry before, he shouldn't be too surprised when Henry says he has spent enough and needs to dial back. Honestly, if a GM needs more than $180 million to build a winning team, exactly how good is he?
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It also might be possible for ownership to stop DD short of re-signing Betts at all costs because they decided he had spent his allowance. I know you take the position that Betts’ contract is independent of the ones given to Price, Sale and Eovaldi, but that doesn’t mean Henry felt that way. His attitude might be “Hey I’d have another $362 million to spend, but you already doled that out to Price and Sale”.
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I think you throw around the phrase “need to rebuild” rather freely. It doesn’t always apply just because a team won less than 95 games...
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What GM can’t sign a player if ownership is willing to pay “whatever it took”? Making the budget work is a big part of being a GM...
