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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. No. The prospects might be more ready to contribute. There is no guarantee there will be a minor league season in 2021, and there is absolutely no guarantee any of them will get better. And really, how many high ceiling prospects do the Sox have above A ball that might be able to step in? And the FA class for 2022 is really not all that much better, and we only know who is scheduled to be in it, not who will be. The biggest name might be McCullers, but not if Houston extends him. And even if they don't, he has never thrown 130 IP in a season. Exactly how is that class better than one that has the reigning Cy Young winner? If the Sox take a pass on this year, we will be having this same conversation one year from now, but instead talking about the 2023 free agent class...
  2. You're begining to sound a lot like Jacko with the whole "wait until 2022" thing. What exactly will be different in 2022? The free agent pitchers aren't necessarily going toi be better. Sure, Lance McCullers is mega-talented arm under 30. Is he worth it? He's never thrown 130 IP in a single season. Between him and Eovaldi, the Sox might be able to get 200 IP for a mere $40 million. Kershaw is available but he will be 34. What, besides one less year of control for Devers, Bogaerts, etc. will be different? The arrival of Jeter Downs? Or Bryan Mata? Is that worth throwing away a full season over? If the goal is "wait until next season," might as well just sign Bauer now. He'd presumably still be on the team in 2022. The Sox will be in the exact same boat in 2022 if they just go lightly and take a cheap CF and 2B and get some filler arms to wear their uniforms, and we will be having this exact same exchange one year from now. You don't improve by standing still. But you do get hit by trains that way...
  3. Jon Lester is going to turn 37 in a few weeks. At this point, he is well aware no one is giving him 3 years, and he might even struggle to get 2. Odirizzi, Paxton and Walker are all upgrades for the Sox, and the oldest one is Paxton, who turned 32 a couple weeks back. All of them will be looking for long deals, but might take short ones if the market is weak (which it has not been to date). One thng for certain, pitchers looking for one year pillow contracts to rebuild value rarely choose Boston, as we have two distinct disadvantages - small ballpark and a league with a DH...
  4. Not even for PR? A forum like this where we talk baseball 24-7 is really not for casual fans. We’re all addicts. Some of us know it. And even here, we have baseball junkies questioning Bloom’s ability to build a team based on last season’s results. Another year is going to entrench the notion this team needs to spend $250 million to be successful and anything less is Henry being cheap. And THAT is the addicts thinking. Can you imagine Casual Fans? The type of people who get their insights from Gerry Callahan and Tony Masserotti?
  5. Go heavy on the bullpen!! Bring in two from Hand, Bradley and Robles! Or all three. Shorten those games! And do the Sox need two MLB starters? Right now, they have ERod, Eovaldi, Pivetta and Houck. That’s 4. They need a fifth guy to round out the rotation and then more Andriese types for depth...
  6. Pitching prospects is a tough call. Every team needs them. So few teams give up good ones (the Sox couldn’t get one for Betts). Yet no prospects fail in the Majors with greater frequency. The league wide desire to hoard pitching prospects actually makes little sense as it’s like deciding to hoard scratch tickets over cash. Anyway, the Sox will struggle in any deal where the other team wants pitching prospects. We have no ranked ones. And maybe half a dozen total who might see MLB. So how do the Sox upgrade starting pitching?
  7. Word also is Pitt wants pitching prospects....
  8. My “Vazquez as trade bait” scenarios really died out when the Rays signed Zunino. As of now, I think the Sox might have Jeter Downs as their most expendable trade piece...
  9. Per my back and forth posts with Bitzer, they use multiple sites for projected performance and salary. So it’s those sites that must have faith in Castillo. Now they do often include other external criteria, like Q-factor, but I doubt either Castillo or Torres have much of an impact there...
  10. Or St. Louis? Vazquez for Harrison Bader and former top prospect Anthony Reyes? Or CF Lane Thomas and Reyes. Reyes just feels like he could be Boston’s version of Glasgow...
  11. The value would also depend on their projected salaries. If Torres projects to make more money than Castillo through the arbitration process, then it would affect his trade value...
  12. Very likely
  13. Because the owners will fight it to reduce expenses...
  14. And that is how he and I differ. I live for digging into these baseball numbers, while he prefers frivolous activities like saving other people's lives...
  15. Boston is reportedly "looming" per MLBTR and Joel Sherman, but the Jays and Padres are the front runners...
  16. So are you saying your personal evaluations are better than not only the site itself, but also the 2 people capable of getting the position of MLB GM who happened to both agree it as a fair deal? Saying the Padres got "ripped off" is a very strong statement about the ability of AJ Preller to evaluate this trade and do what is best for his team. And all because the site refuses to acknowledge that no player should have more trade value than Gleyber Torres?
  17. However, I think the Sox should hold on to Martinez. I think he can bounce back. I don't like the idea of paying Martinez to play for someone else and then going out and paying someone else to fill his role...
  18. All the players I mentioned are also long term assets, too. I think Tatis is the closest to free agency and he is not up until 2025. I also don't think the Red Sox - or any MLB team - ever operates on the assumption that they are one year away or two years away. That's Outsider Logic. Only 20% separates the best teams from the worst teams, and anything can happen any year. No GM wants to hold back because he has conceded the division to, say, the Yankees, only to watch of their 3 or 4 key players become lost to injury. Resetting is one thing. No one likes paying anything called a "tax". But once teams juggle their payroll to minimize that aspect of the game, there are just cheap teams and big budget teams, and both operate in their respective categories the rest of the time. The Sox have reset before. But how many times have they reset the tax and stayed cheap the following season?
  19. You need to make your mind up about Snell, about whether or not he is an underpriced dominant pitcher or a fragile bullpen killer. BTW, the label "bullpen killer" might be a tad unfair given the Rays' strategy of deploying the bullpen very quickly in games. Even prior to employing the opener strategy, they were among the last in the league in IP/start, and not because they had bad starters...
  20. The weird thing about Kim is the most interested teams right now are probably the two teams in MLB that least need an infielder. The Blue Jays (Biggio, Bichette, Guerrero) and the Padres (Cronenworth, Tatis, Machado) have both either made offers or are deep in talks. I would like to see Boston get involved...
  21. Well, don’t forget Carlos Santana, who really doesn’t have a defensive position either (Yeah! He’s below average at the easiest position to field!!), yet he signed for roughly $8.8 million with a small market team that no one expects to compete!! So I have doubts about your statement. It just comes down to whether or not the Sox should trade JDM...
  22. Per Bob Uecker....
  23. Per BTV, the Padres gave up $60.90 million in surplus value and acquired $52.90 million in surplus value....
  24. The Rays also held Kiermaier. Not sure if this means they prefer to hold him or San Diego wanted no part...
  25. Patino, McClanahan and Baz could be a very powerful front load on the Rays’ rotation for a few seasons...
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