While clearly predicting these things is not my strong suit, I just think there are too many teams who can easily outbid the Reds. And if Bauer stays true to his "one year contracts" decision, it does prevent a lot of heavy-spending teams from shying away. The only risk is if you sign him for one season, and that season never happens.
The only reason I think the Reds have a chance at signing him is teams might be hesitant to give up a draft pick for him and then have a non-season at all, or an injury-plagued season from Bauer...