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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    If the Sox sweep the Tigers and even the H2H record at 3-3, it will come down to how each team fared in the previous series. Sox are 30-19 in division games; Detroit is 29-20. So Boston needs to have won as many game as Detroit. If both teams end up 32-20 or 33-19 in division games, Detroit holds the tiebreaker for AL games, currently up by 6. No way Boston can rely on that tiebreaker. (If Detroit loses out, it won’t be necessary.)
  2. notin
    Then do not read this; 1. Head to head 2. Intradivisional record (regardless of whether or not both teams on in the same division) 3. Intraleague record 4. Intraleague record in the second half 5. Outcome of previous Intraleague game on schedule, counting back until tie is broken
  3. notin
    Rafaela ($37.2) plus Crawford ($6.7) for Mitch Keller ($12.6) is a massive overpay per BTV, and probably in real life as well Campbell ($29.7), Sandlin ($4.8), Paez ($2.9) and Hicks -$19.1) for Marte ($70.5) is an equally massive underpay on BTV. Not every team (re:probably none) uses BTV for trade evaluations, but they all probably do use something similar. Interestingly, these two deal can probably be re-arranangrd to work, but the Sox have to keep Hicks. Campbell, Rafaela and Paez for Marte. Crawford and Sandlin for Keller. If I’m the DBacks, I probably pass on the top deal, unless Marte is more of a PIA than I realize and just has to go. (Maybe he’s so bad they take Hicks?) If I’m the Pirates, I jump at the bottom deal…
  4. notin
    It’s no so easy to convince another team to take on multiple Rule 5 eligible players before the draft. But the Sox also don’t have many eligible players that other teams figure to target, either. Anyone below AA (Jedixson Paez, for example) is unlikely to be selected. The Rule 5 draft does have a huge downside for teams that make selections because they take a player who is going to lose a year if development in the minors and lose a year of control in the majors. I don’t think the Sox have to or will protect very many…
  5. notin
    Grissom is probably about 90% likely to be DFAd and released…
  6. notin
    He kind of stands out on the short list of Rule 5 eligible players worth protecting, which doesn’t say much. The only candidates IMO are him, Mullins and maybe (finally?) Noah Song…
  7. notin
    For Yoshida, either money or a prospect. For Hicks, nope. They save $20mill plus get the more useful player. Also, you’d package Sandlin over Uberstine? Uberstine strikes me as a fungible AAAA player every team has several of. Sandlin is no elite prospect but he appears to be the more useful of that pair. The Sox will protect Sandlin. Maybe Mullins. Not Uberstine…
  8. notin
    Wondering if it makes sense for the Sox to investigate a past target I’ve thrown out there (and they’ve not been connected to publicly) by moving either Yoshida (2 yr $37.2mill) or Hicks (2 yrs $25mill) to Atlanta for C Sean Murphy (3yrs $45mill). BTV gives Murphy a surplus value of minus $25mill, Yoshida a surplus value of minus $31.1mill and Hicks a surplus of minus $19mill. Drake Baldwin is likely NL ROY or NL ROY runner up. Atlanta will likely lose Marcell Ozuna to free agency. Murphy is an option to replace him, but he’s not close to the same hitter. And possibly less of one than Yoshida at this point. But if I’m GM of Atlanta, I’d still prefer Hicks. Bigger financial savings, lower AAV, and he does still throw really, really hard. And it might be as simple as keeping him out of the rotation to get him back to the reliever he used to be…
  9. notin
    No. In fact, fans who do not like a CBO excuse away any good move he makes as “lucky” or it “fell into his lap.” “Luck” is an excuse to justify further criticism…
  10. notin
    I like the attitude…
  11. notin
    From 2020 through 2023, the rhetoric was “you can’t count on Sale.” But once he got traded, it suddenly morphed into “they should have counted on Sale.” Not sure why anyone thinks it’s so painfully obvious Sale was going to be the first starting pitcher to accrue more WAR at age 35 than he did from ages 29 through 34 combined. But if Sale had stayed and flipped again, folks would have been all over Breslow for NOT trading him, just like they were when Bloom didn’t trade him to Texas in 2022. Sometimes it feels like people don’t want smart CBOs or crafty CBOs; they want psychics…
  12. notin
    A lot of people wanted Anthony called up earlier. You’re hardly alone on that list. The only issue was the Sox didn’t need OF/DH types. They did have issues at 1b and eventually at 2b. But Anthony solved none of these…
  13. notin
    Upon further review, this post has been overturned…
  14. notin
    Just starting pitchers? Imagine if he had unloaded Story this off-season…
  15. notin
    Not relevant. My point is if we tie with Cleveland for the last spot, the Sox are in and Cleveland is not.If we tie with Setroit for the last playoff spot, we’re out. And Cleveland isnt trying to catch the Sox; they are aiming for Detroit. (They’ll settle for passing Boston.)
  16. notin
    Fan interest?! Those DEMONS!!
  17. notin
    The Sox do have to hope Cleveland doesn’t overtake Detroit and leave us needing to beat the Tigers for a WC slot, as they currently have a 0-3 record against Detroit…
  18. notin
    Missing the postseason altogether would be far, far worse. There is no reason to believe road games in Houston or Seattle are automatic losses, and even less reason to believe being eliminated by a two game losing for a lineup still potentially starting half the bench would create any situation beyond a positive one, regardless of the brief trip. Don’t forget the Sox split the season series with Seattle and won it vs Houston. (So go Seattle -take the West!) You can’t argue this team is not playoff worthy while at the same time, exalting other teams with basically the same records overall, but a losing one against Boston. Also important - Boston owns the tiebreaker with Cleveland…
  19. notin
    It believe it was 2011 that had the lead entering September and then just fell apart that last month, reportedly due to being forced to play a makeup game on a scheduled off day. The 2012 team faltered to the end because in late August, they traded away AGon, Crawford, Beckett and Punto for a pocketful of change and a basketful of dreams…
  20. notin
    Anthony was called up 6 days before Devers was traded. At the time the Sox still had Duran-Rafaela-Abreu in the OF. Whether or not he is worth one more win than any of those three over the first 2 months of the season is debatable. Now if Devers had been a team player and said (in Spanish) “I will take over first base since Casas is now injured”, that would have at least opened up a DH slot for him and been a much better lineup capable of a few more wins. But Devers was still a petulant child at that time..:
  21. notin
    Romy and Refsnyder are fine as weak side platoon hitters. But lately both have seen that role expand out of necessity…
  22. notin
    Which team didnt get a real bat that they had to pay d for all season? The Red Sox committed $40mil to Bregman. The Cubs traded for Kyle Tucker. The Blue Jays had a fairly inactive offseason, although they did give a massive extension to their star slugger, and that current roster was vmcertainly built through anyone’s definition of trying. The Red Sox did everything fans usually associate with trying to win. They brought in expensive talent (Bregman). They traded prospects for key players (Crochet, Narvaez). They signed other key role players (Chapman, Wilson). They traded away Devers because he openly stated he was not going to be a team player. And they did unload Priester for reasons I didn’t understand, and it’s made worse by his sudden emergence to relevance…
  23. notin
    Likely not, but he hopefully doesn’t have to…
  24. notin
    Romy is among the bench starters. The Sox weren’t and shouldn’t have been counting on him to carry them either…
  25. notin
    You don’t think the Cubs are trying? Or the Blue Jays? Really, I don’t get the argument that the Red Sox are not. I think Theyre clearly trying to win, just not in a way many fans like…
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