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Everything posted by notin
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The “act fast” trading method only works if you blow the other team away with your offer. Otherwise most teams just wait out for the best return
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My autocorrect confuses Mr. Perez and Mr. Gonzalez a lot, too. But then, my autocorrect is clearly a Yankee fan…
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Actually Red Sox first basemen this year have a .618 OPS, worst in MLB. The Yankee 1b have a combined .671 OPS, which ranks 24th…
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2021 MLB draft
notin replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Maybe he won’t. But his agent will… -
Dalbec’s .673 ranks 26th of 28 first basemen with 250 or more PA. The only two players fairing worse on Fangraphs are Josh Fuentes and Miguel Cabrera, neither of whom actually play 1b. While every team has a worst hitter and every team has a 9th place hitter, Dalbec as a 1b is not doing a good job at the plate relative to his counterparts…
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Agreed. At age 31, Barnes just made his first all star team. By his age 31 season, Kimbrel had been selected 7 times…
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It is. But with only 64 IP, every earned run drops that ERA+ down by about 4. And as Barnes wasn’t the closer, that number can be drastically influenced by the ability of subsequent relievers to hold his IR. Really, these ERA numbers for relief pitchers are tenuous at best due to sample size and role…
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I do think starter depth is a big deal. Both Eovaldi and Richards have significant injury histories. ERod is charting unnavigated waters heath-wise. If the Sox do have any health issues in the rotation, they don’t have a lot of places to turn for replacements. Houck - not healthy himself - can only fill one spot in the rotation. Sale isn’t ready yet either and has his own health question marks. So who takes the starts if someone goes down in the next couple weeks?
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But your example of Doug Mientkiewicz in 2004 didn’t involve getting a bat. And the request for LHH 1b with a good glove didn’t emphasize it either.
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If they add a LHH 1b, that’s not a big deal. Sure Dalbec isn’t the biggest problem, but that’s also likely to be the easiest and least costly fix. Adding a starter is a bigger need IMO, but it’s also a lot more difficult to pull off…
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And because they hype anything they can think of,they emphasize a very small window at the deadline as if it’s all that matters. For example, Tampa has made a deal for two relievers and promoted a consensus top prospect. They might very well do nothing in the July 30/31 timeframe. If so, they’ll fall into the trade deadline “losers” column for the crime of being proactive. Had they added Feyereisen a few weeks later, they’d be listed as “winners.” Milwaukee added Willy Adames, who has posted all star numbers and played stellar overall, but if they do nothing at the end of July, they’ll also be listed as “trade deadline losers”. Again, their crime is being proactive. (They also added Rowdy Tellez in a deal tat should absolutely thrill Red Sox fans. He’ll be forgotten amidst the July 31st media hype, too.)
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It’s a real deadline. But the media attitude is ridiculous many times about inactive teams. Almost every year there’s some team that pulls of a deal in late June or early July and does nothing else at the end of the month and is labeled “inactive” and questioned about it. Milwaukee is a prime candidate to receive said attention this season…
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An argument could be made for Archie Bradley, who is having a subpar year but is younger and has had a career very comparable to Barnes…
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The thing about Duran that bothers me is every time he has a good season, there seems to be some reason not related to his skillset. In A ball, his numbers were inflated by ridiculous BABIP. In AAA, Polar Park could be a big factor. On the other hand, he has launched up the rankings unlike some of his teammates, most notably Wilson who has similar numbers and age, and that means scouts actually watching him play are impressed by something not on his stat page. So there are reasons to both doubt and have faith in him in my eyes…
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Per BTV - and their model seems to work more often than not - Berrios has a surplus value of 40.8. Duran has a surplus value of 44.5. A straight up trade is accepted on that site. To package a deal around Downs (20), the Sox would also need to include Jimenez (10.8) and Houck (10.5). Mata (9.9) could replace Houck, but I think his current health status makes him a lot less desirable…
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Reportedly the price for Berrios is very high. If it’s Duran, we’ll have to see if Bloom walks. But it’s likely he does. It’s also very possible that the price for Berrios has to include Duran. But as Thad Levine doesn’t return my texts, I will probably never know…
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I think it's a tough call, but for Berrios, you probably have to give up something you're uncomfortable giving up...
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To be fair, he said Downs is expendable in the right deal. And he is, in the right deal...
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If they insist on Duran, do you pull the trigger?
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Other than Berrios, they're basically in the same category. And the word to date is Berrios will cost a haul...
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Maybe the Connecticut native Barnes decided to stay local. I doubt he would have gotten that much more in free agency…
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The rental market looks pretty thin, too. Unless you like Jon Gray or Chris Archer...
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The Sox position so far seems to be “Duran needs to play every day.” For that to happen in Boston, that would require an injury or a starter being traded (which isn’t very likely). Just because many people feel that Duran will be treated this way largely because most top prospects are doesn’t make them “anti-Duran.” There are several prospects ranked above him also not getting called up…
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Ward has no value right now and Chavis doesn’t make up much difference. A pitcher who might be the most sought after trade target this month is going to cost more than a TJ recovery, an oft-injured A-baller and a positionless K-machine
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They clearly want Duran playing ever day. That’s why he is still in Worcester. If they need a PR/4th outfielder, they’ll bring up Marcus Wilson, who’s already on 40 man roster and who’s OPS is only 0.012 less than Duran’s. Or more likely, they’ll bring back Franchy Cordero…
