notin
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Everything posted by notin
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As we might be seeing with Bogaerts and Eovaldi, some players ask for the moon to avoid free agency when this close. Get them early and there are more risks, you can get a good deal. But waiting too long turns free agency a viable backup plan into an effective bargaining chip. Like when JD Martinez was in AZ. In half a year there, he became an absolute legend. When extension talks came, his agent asked for $200 mill. AZ walked. Boras than showed the rest of ownship his huge treatise about why the King King of Slug was worth $200mill. And no one bought it. JD had to “settle” for a paltry 5 year $125mill. Will we see the same scenario with Bogaerts and Eovaldi? And then will fans think whatever they get was the demand all along?
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Bednar is a closer. Not saying it’s not a need, but I am saying he’s not an alternative to Eovaldi…
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And as probably the most vocal critic of the Eovaldi deal, my issue was never about talent. Eovaldi is in the 4th year of a contract and has performed with an ERA+ of 113 on this deal. But he’s also only thrown 286 IP in the 2.3 seasons before this, carries a lengthy injury history, and might be pricing himself into the 5 year $110 mill range. Gausman is a good comp. Both were late bloomers. Eovaldi is a year older but also a better pitcher. Would you be in for 5 years? Bear in mind this team still control Sale for 2 more years at $55mill total / $25mill AAV…
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Betts clearly wanted out of Boston, or at least to try free agency. There is no GM in Sox history more willing to spend heavily and meet a player’s demands than Dave Dombrowski, an honor he holds in multiple organizations. And even he couldn’t keep Betts here. If Dombrowski was unable to keep him in Boston, it’s very likely because nobody would have been able to…
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I would take my chances with alternatives. The Sox are loaded at middle infield with prospects, and really, how many do we need? In the right deal, Nick Yorke is absolutely available IMO...
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And as for trades, while very few GMs talk to me about who is available, certainly there are a few teams you must have noticed that are pumping out MLB-caliber arms left ad right but not so much with the position prospects. (Although I am flabbergasted - yes flabbergasted - that neither Montas nor Manaea made it to Boston.) Most notably, Miami and Cleveland. And one of the most talented arms in Miami might be the one most easily available in Elieser Hernandez. His injuries make him somewhat of a risk, but Miami's incredible (and growing) pitching depth makes him all but expendable. BTV gives him a surpolus value of $5.2million (or, roughly, Matthew Lugo), but this is probably because most of the sites projecting his performance don't anticipate him playing much, thus keeping his fWAR down. I do imagine he would cost more than that. But if he stays healthy, he would be an absolute steal overa wide range of prices...
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Gausman has been outstanding. But do you really think he will be for 5 years. He’s another one where 2021 (4.8 fWAR) looked a lot like an outlier. But if you think he and Eovaldi are both late bloomers, do you think Eovaldi should get a 5 yea nine figure contract? Gausman got one and his pre-2021 wasn’t any better than Eovaldi’s. So we can safely assume at least one GM would give Eovaldi 5 years / $110mill. Should Boston be that team?
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The risks with free agency are just much greater. At least for the top tier players. And the risks are in the years. The whole premise of this thread shows this. Not one person has selected more than 4 years. And the big issue is a lot of people are looking at the Eovaldi Glass and saying “it’s been half full lately.” Even the normally sardonic 5Gold tried to paint the rosiest picture possible of Eovaldi, calling him the Sox best pitcher of the last 3years. Sure, if you like thinking 2020 is some sort of equal representative. And if you assume he finishes 2021 still holding that title. The reality is, it was a way to try desperately to not make 2021 look like an outlier. The problem is, that’s exactly what it was. 5.6 fWAR season for a 31yo pitcher who never topped 3.3 fWAR before (and that was from 8 years ago). It would be very unwise for the Sox to even go to 4 years with Eovaldi, let alone 4 or 5. And to say “there’s no one else” is just a justification, not a reason…
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As Tom Jones would say “It’s not unusual. It was f***ing stupid to sign an injured pitcher to a five-year nine figure contract.” Or something like that. He’s not the best lyricist, but sometimes he does hit the nail on the head…
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I forgot. You like to go cheap at closer
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The safest guideline seems to be fewest years. Even Eovaldi is straight up Recency Effect. His 2019 was awful. He was good in 2020, but he was limited to 9 starts and 48 IP. Not really the best year to evaluate anybody. (Even you, JD.) And he was outstanding in 2021. So at what point did he become “excellent”? For one season plus 88 IP on a 4 year deal? And if he was excellent, why only 4 years? This is his last real contract. What if he wants six? And Sale produced great on the seasons the Sox traded him for. His 5 year extension has been a complete payroll albatross…
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5/13 SOX @ Rangers 8:05PM ET
notin replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
So - ghost runner. Also I would think intentional pass is it own answer now that they no longer go through the dog and pony show of actually throwing the pitches. I mean, without 4 balls, is it still a walk? -
5/13 SOX @ Rangers 8:05PM ET
notin replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Ok so if you look up all the waits a batter (yes, batter) can reach first base, most sites list 7 ways. And one of them is “defensive indifference.” Not sure I can think of how DI can be used to reach first base… -
Trades and farm system. Unless you like how Price is pitching this season…
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The problem with free agent starters is never the salary as much as it is the years. As a free agent, the goal of starting pitcher (and his agent) is to get a contract that pays you for more years than you have left as a good starter. If Eovaldi is the rare commodity of a decent SP, why do people think he will settle for 4 years? He’s peak marketable right now. If the Sox go crazy spending, go get Edwin Diaz. Closers/high leverage relief arms rarely (re: never) command 6 or 7 year deals…
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And he can take the spot Price vacates right next to Sale on the IL. By the way, what makes anyone think 4 years is even an option for the “best pitcher each of the last 3 years”? What if he wants 5? Or 6? Maybe free agency isn’t the best place to get SP. A bullpen? A closer if you prefer? Absolutely.
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If you get a $300mill contract, you’re allowed to start counting again…
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… says the fan of a team that used Joey Gallo as a DH last year…
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If they offer him $300mill, he will LOVE Boston. He might even name his first born John Henry Devers…
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That’s because there’s no comma. It’s two separate sentences…
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Are the Red Sox doing so well that you need to find other subjects to troll on? Either do your trolling right or don’t do it at all!!! The hitters can’t hit. The bullpen pitchers can’t pitch. And now even the trolls can’t troll. Truly a snake it season…
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Only if Story is still worth his $23mill AAV…
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He actually might be a close fit as an overall player, but he will never hit like Bogaerts. That he was signed at all might be an indication of what was expected in negotiations with Bogaerts…
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It really does. Most pitchers throw about 600 IP before a second TJ. Very very few have taken Eovaldi’s career and peaked after the second one. There are absolutely exceptions, notably Adam Wainwright. But while his career was certainly long, he has not been as dominant. And roughly 3 years and just over those 600 IP after missing a season for TJ, he had his scheduled “missed season” where he threw just 28 IP…
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1. Doubtful the Sox go into a prolonged rebuild, just like the Yankees didn’t after being deadline sellers in 2016. 2. Rebuilding teams still have to sign marquee names when they’ve available. 3. Teams that do go into prolonged rebuilds are usually driven by finances. The Sox have resources and things can turn around fast in MLB since the difference between the best winning percentage and the worst winning percentage is only around 20%…
