moonslav59

Would you be okay, if I had worded it like this? I'm not happy with the direction of our budget, but let's not pretend JH has been anywhere near like some other owners. In the last 2 years, alone... Adjusted for inflation... 1. signed Devers to one of the largest 2-3 contract in Red Sox history! 2. signed Story to one of the 6th or 7th largest AAV in Red Sox history and to 6 years, a length not often given by him. (only 5 players at 6+ Devers, Price, AGon, CC, Story) 3. signed Yoshida and paid a fee that put the total cost over $100M, which I believe, when adjusted for inflation is top 25 in Red Sox history of money spent on one contract period. That's not "headed towards Pittsburgh."

You brought up inflation, not me. I agree that some past big contracts are likely higher than Story's, when adjusted for inflation. I'm not sure more than 1 or 2, if any, beat Devers. I'm sure several have topped Yoshi. As for our spending budgets, how does inflation adjustments make 2022 and 2023's budgets look, in comparison? I'm not doing the math. I've said I think we should spend more and can spend more. We dropped down, a lot after 2019, despite the Sale, nate and Bogey deals inked that winter. (Not bringing Kimbrell & Kelly back was really the start, to me, and that was after 2018, and then we dumped Price on the betts trade. No doubt, we slashed budget, like never before. My point is, we are not even close to looking like PITT of even 10-14 other teams. Our spending has not been all that much different from times in the past, except for the big dip in 2020, where we still were 3rd ranked. Hell, Steve the Ump had us still 3rd in 2021. The main reason we have dropped in the rankings, is that other teams have begun to spend more or way more, while we have stayed about the same, with repeated fluctuations and trends. Seperate yourself from the emotions of watching us not go up in spending, when we need to and "can afford to" do so. Pretend you are a non Sox fan looking at these numbers to determine what the main reason is for the Sox drop in spending ranking... I'll just start at 2021: (2022>2023) 1. LAD 235 (1. 277> 5. 218) -17M (2>5 2. NYY 191 (3. 240> 2. 269) +78M (2=2) 3. BOS 180 (6. 195> 13. 176) -4M (3>13) 4. LAA 177 (9. 169> 7. 204) +27M (4>7) 5. PHI 174 (4. 222> 4. 232) 58M (5>4) 6. SDP 172 (5. 209> 3. 269) +97M (6>3) 7. HOU 171 (11. 164> 11. 181) +10M (7>10) 8. NYM 167 (2. 253> 1. 334) +167M (8>1) 9. WSH 161 (19. 115> 24. 80) -81M (9>24) 10. CHC 150 (15. 131> 12. 180) +30M (10>12) 11. TOR 137 (10. 168> 6. 206) +49M (11>6) 12. STL 135 (12. 150> 16. 148) +13M (12>16) 13. ATL 134 (8. 174> 8. 200) +66M (13>8) 14. SFG 128 (13. 142>14. 176) +38M (14=14) 15. CWS 126 (7. 182> 10. 181) +55M (15>10) 16. MIN 121 (20. 111>17. 141) +20M (16>17) 17. CIN 119 (21. 100> 22. 86) -33M (17>22) Big drop 22. TEX 85 (14. 135> 9. 184) +99M (22>9) We added $15M from 2021 to 2022 and still dropped from 3rd to 6th. The cut from '212 to '22 was certainly a factor in our drop, but if we stayed at the 2021 level of spending in 2023, we'd have placed 9th (just behind ATL and above TEX). 6 place drop. had we stayed at the 2021 number, we'd have been ranked 10th. (7 place drop) We dropped 10 spots, in reality. Once could say 6-7 were because others spent way more and 3-4, because we leveled off or dropped, a little. I live near HOU. While people complain about the Astros not spending to keep their stars (sound familiar?), I don't here any calls for the owner's head. Why? Because they still win, despite spending about the same as us. The major issues are how we spend our money and other teams going nutty with spending and jumping over us. That's not to say, our lack of spending is not a major issue.

It seems you can multiply your investment by 6 without adding any.

I was talking about my small business ventures, not a business like the Sox. I will say, I don't think JH is much different from other business owners making tons of money. Not only does he make tons of money, every year, the value of his investment has increased by near 500% in 20 years.

I shoulda forked over $751M in 2001.

JH has seemed to spend big in short spurts. 2007: lots of big deals signed or extended- Drew, Papi, Beckett, Lugo, Dice-K 2008-2009: off (Lowell 2008) 2010: basically, Lackey 2011: Crawford & beckett extension and 2012: AGon extension 2013-2014: off 2015: HRam & Pablito, plus the Porcello extensión followed by Price the following winter (2016). 2017 off JD in 2018, then the Sale, Bogey and Nate extensions/resignings (2019>) 2020 and 2021 off Story in '22, Yoshida in '23 and Devers extension in '23, but kicks in in '24. While I see other teams passing us in the spendings rankings, we are still spending bigly on 2 players in 2 years, if you cont from March 2021 to Aril 2024 as 2. It looks like a pattern of 1-2 years of spending followed by 1-2 of not spending. That has not changed all that much, in terms of big and or long contracts. No doubt, others are passing us, and we expect JH to spend more. Maybe not match the top teams, but at least step it up. I don't disagree, but we are not on the highway to Pittsburgh.

Agreed. BTW, I wasn't really trying to hype Bello by saying nobody in our system is likely to match him. It was more about how bad our system is. We may get 1 or 2 to match Crawford or Houck, who I failed to mention, before.

Fine. Does it equate to the brian Reynolds extension, though?

I figured everyone knew about inflation, but I should have mentioned it. Even with inflation, Devers is a top 2-4 signing, since and including Manny. (Manny, Price... AGon?) Story is still likely a top 10 signing, maybe top 12. Okay, Yoshida might fall to 20th or 25th, if you go back to 2000. (I'm not doing the math from that far back.) People point to our spending ranking to prove we are spending way less. IMO, much of that is because other teams are spending way more. Do the math, how much is our CBT number of $236M in 2022 compared to $192 in 2017? $178 in 2013? Even if it's less, I doubt we are looking like we are on a path to Pittsburgh. (BTW, I wrote $225 as Breslow's first year. It was 2023 and Bloom's final year. My bad.)

Luckily, we have very few, this year. (We lost Dugo, Arroyo and maybe more) 3 of 3 Pivetta $5.4M 3 of 3 O'Neill $ 5.0M >est $5.9M 2 of 3 McGuire $1.2 > est $2.0M 1 of 3 Schreiber $750K> est $1.5M

I agree, but think we'll be lucky to get 2 pitchers from this group as good as Bello & Crawford. (Most rate to be RP'ers, anyway.) It will take years for Breslow's group to be formulated, developed, promoted and then matured. In the mean time, there are precious few options at improving the rotation. FA blockbuster trade under-the-radar trade Rule5, Waivers, MiLFA are too rare to even consider Draft & IFA are for the next group: 3-6 or more years away.

I used to run a kiosk (4 employees + myself), when I lived in Mexico City. I also ran a small English as a Second Language class. I won't count day-trader as one.

Don't we hardly ever go to ARBs?

If you are still making money, hand over fist, you stay in the game. Maybe you hire someone to handle the BS, and maybe hit cruise control. Maybe I sell, as the asking price should be high.

I'm not happy with the direction of our budget, but let's not pretend JH has been anywhere near like some other owners. In the last 2 years, alone... 1. signed Devers to the largest contract in Red Sox history by over $80M! 2. signed Story to the 4th largest AAV in Red Sox history and to 6 years, a length not often given by him. (only 5 players at 6+ Devers, Price, AGon, CC, Story) 3. signed Yoshida and paid a fee that put the total cost over $100M, which I believe is top 10 in Red Sox history of money spent on one contract period. That's not "headed towards Pittsburgh." Final CBT Numbers since 2012: in 100Ms 178 (Ben takes charge) 178 (2013 ring) 186 199 204 (DD begins) 192 239 (2018 ring) 244 185 (Bloom begins- prorated for covid season) 208 236 (at 225, now, per cots) Breslo begins

That is terribly bleak, and for as much grief as DD got for "leaving the farm barren," guys like Bello and Crawford look way better than we can expect any two, in our system now, to ever become. (Yes, Bloom brought us Whitlock & Wink- maybe both not really starters- in other ways, but our pitcher development system has been broken. Maybe recent changes will help, but only a long time will tell.) Thus, the need to sign or trade for top SP'ers, while we wait to see.

Hardly any teams spend less than before, consistently. The Astros did from 2011 to about 2016-2017. The Brave, a little bit, for a little while, after they were sold. I'm not saying it happens, often, and we might not end up being like PIT, but the new owner could spend less or the same as JH, right?

Agreed. My point was, it will be hard for us to ever go up as much as some teams can, due to park size differences.

What if they sell to an owner like Pittsburgh's?

I hardly listen to any, except the soxprospects.com one and some random ones, here and there. On attendance from '22 to '23, our increase of 581 people per game ranked 21st, so we are not doing all that great. The small park does limit the amount we can increase. PHI went up 6.6K, CIN 7.9 and BAL 7.0. Our park could not hold such an increase.

You mean lower floor, as in 0-10 IP possible?

I've been all for trading for a longer term controlled 1/2 type SP'er, since I was 15. If they can get it done, now- pull the trigger. 2-3 year pitchers are no longer looking all that good to me. If we trade for Luzardo (3 yrs,) and we tank this year, we'll have to spend big, next year or hope a few rookies play like Lynn and Rice.

Not a lie, if I did not intentionally mislead anyone. I heard it on a podcast somewhere. I guess I passed on faulty information. My apologies.

Our list might look like this: Soler (Duvall as fall back) Paxton or YRod I went into this winter with zero expectations, but all this is less than zero.

Agreed. They may try to trade for a SP'er with 5 years of control, but even that risks losing 1 of those 5 years to a tank year 1.