moonslav59

I like your list, too. I think Lugo would have been a good gamble at $15M x 3. The better than nothing category: Stroman $18.5M x 2 M Wacha $16M x 2 Maybe Montas at $14M x 1 (I might prefer Paxton at $10M x 1)

Fair enough. I was thinking they will not bring back much and have a better chance at improving their current trade value in 2024 than what we'd get for them, now. As demanded throw-ins to a trade that nets us a solid SP'er with 4+ years of control, sure. I like Abreu more than his current BTV value has him.

He did choose well on who to keep and who to trade. I'm not sure how much was being "astute," but GM are always bashed in hindsight, so it make sense to praise them when things work out well, in hindsight, too. The sheer number of top or once top prospects trades was astounding, but I've never felt he "emptied the farm" or left it "barren." I loved DD and had no issues with the choices he made to sacrifice some of the extended future for a nice 3 year window (that coulda-shoulda been longer.) The fact that we went from the Devers call-up in 2017 to the Casas and Bello call-ups in '22 & '23 with no noteworthy farm infusion beyond Houck has to fall, at least partially, on DD's shoulders. That being said, he did keep and or add: Devers, ERod, Bello, Casas, Houck, Crawford, Rafaela, Beni and Mata, Wikelman, Perales, Murphy & Walter (a large chunk of our best pitching prospects.) Traded prospects (w top SP's ranking) 1. Moncada, Swihart 3. Espinoza, Margot 5. Kopech, Beeks, RanaudoCecchini 6. Guerra, Brentz 8. Basabe, Chatham 9. Dubon, Lakins 12. W Rijos, Marrero 13. Logan Allen 15. Light, Longhi 17. S Anderson, Buttrey, Jerez 18, The other Basabe 19. Acosta 20, Nogosek Espinal, Gregory Santos, Aro, Asuage, G Bautista, Callahan, Pennington, TShaw (not a prospect, when traded) Note: I am not trying to inflate the value of these guys traded away. Many were traded after they dropped out of the top 10 or 20. My point was to show the numbers of prospects traded away.

Indeed. Even when we had Nate, ERod and Sale, we were never sure, if they would give us a full season of #1-#2 pitching. Nate did fine, but he missed some starts. (35 out of a possible 110 from '19-'22) The 5.99 ERA in 2019 was not impressive, as well. ERod did well one year, missed 2020 and did not do well in '21. Sale was hardly around. Our top SP'ers by GS since 2019: 2019 (ERA as SP'er only) 34 ERod 3.81 32 Porcello 5.52 25 C Sale 4.40 22 Price 4.28 12 Nate 6.13 8 Velazquez 6.95, 7 B Johnson 5.09, 6 Cashner 8.01, 5 Chacin 7.90 2020 (60 game season) 12 Perez 4.50 9 Nate 3.72 7 Godley 9.49 6 Mazza 5.01 5 Weber 7.11 4 Brewer 6.91, 3 Houck 0.53, 3 Hart 13.00 2021 32 Nate 3.75 31 ERod 4.77 30 Pivetta 4.56 22 Perez 4.77 22 Richards 5.22 13 Houck 3.68, 9 Sale 3.19 2022 (4.49 SP ERA was exact same as 2021.) 33 Pivetta 4.56 26 R Hill 4.27 23 Wacha 3.32 20 Nate 3.87 14 Wink 5.75, 12 Crawford 5.43, 11 Bello 4.15, 9 Whitlock 4.15 2023 (4.68 ERA) 28 Bello 4.24 23 Crawford 4.51 21 Houck 5.01 20 Sale 4.30 19 Paxton 4.50, 16 Pivetta 4.66, 10 Whitlock 5.23 (Interesting to note that 5 of our top starters by GS finished with an ERA better than the rotation as a whole. Houck, Whitlock and the scrubs were the main reason for a worse SP ERA than 2021 and 2022.) The team had a 4.49 ERA in '21 and '22: 106 GS: 4.24 Bello 4.30 Sale 4.50 Paxton 4.51 Crawford 4.66 Pivetta

And, along with those 6, these players will be here for the next 4 years: Duran Story Yoshida Wong Rafaela Abreu That's 12 everyday players/prospects to come up with 9 starters. C: Teel, Wong 1B: Casas 2B: Grissom (Story) SS: Story, Mayer 3B: Devers LF: Duran CF: Anthony (Bleis) RF: Rafaela, Abreu DH: Yoshida (EVladez/Yorke) Fringe promises: 2B/DH: EValdez, Yorke 3B: Meidroth, A Anderson SS: Romero, Zanetello, Cespedes OF: Bleis, Castro, Rosier, Yuten, Riemer C: Jo Garcia, Hickey It's the pitching the has holes and projects to have more holes. 1B/DH: Dalbec, Jordan, Kavadas, K Campbell

Largest signing bonuses for IFA: $Millions (2013>>>) Red= top signing that year 31.5 Moncada 2B '14-'15 5.4 Rusney Castillo OF '14-'15 4.0 D Hinojosa P '13 3.1 Daniel Flores C '17 1.8 A Espinoza P '14-'15 1.6 Danny Diaz SS '17 1,5 R Devers 3B '13 1.5 C Acosta P '14-'15 1.5 Bleis OF '21 1.4 Antoni Flores SS '17 1.4 Cespedes SS '23 1.2 E Lopez OF '18 1.2 F de Leon SS '22 1.1 F Encarnacion SS '22 1.0 Asencio OF '24 .90 J Chacon OF '19 .85 E Lira C '21 .85 Jo. Garcia C '22 .75 C-J Liu P '19 .60 Santana SS '22 .55 Vaughn CF '18 .55 Ravelo SS '21 .53 F Arias SS '23 .50 Gonzalez OF '18 .50 Y Ruiz SS '23 .46 G Santana '18 .45 N Abreu SS '17 .45 J Paez P '21 .45 D Reyes P '24 .45 Liendo 2B '21 .44 James IF '19 .41 R Avila C '19 .40 A Feliz OF '18 .40 J Salazar SS '20 .40 N Yuten CF '22 .40 Paniagua OF '22 .40 Fermin IF '24 .35 N Marcano C '18 .35 G Jackson P '18 .35 Jh, Garcia SS '19 .30 K Diaz SS '19 .30 Mejias P '21 .30 C Lee P '23 .30 7 players in 2015, including 2 Ps. .03 H Velazquez '16 (Penalty season) Pre-2013 notables 6.3 Iggy SS '09 2.0 Dice K P '06 + massive posting fee 2.0 T-W Lin SS '12 1.8 Tazawa P '08 1.5 M Almanzar 3B '07 .80 Margot OF '12 .41 Bogey '09 .75 J C Linares OF '10 .61 Jose Almonte P '12-'13 .15 Doubront P '04 .08 F Montas P '09

I'm not sure how much other GMs value these guys on the Sox, but to me, these are the ones I'd look to deal for a pitcher with 4+ years of team control: BTV Values 34 Duran (I can see why many do not want to deal him away.) 24 Crawford (seems counterintuitive to trade a promising young pitcher) 22 Houck (I'd rather trade Houck than Crawford, right now.) 22 Bleis (Would likely be trading at a low point in his value) 13 Yorke (Top of my trade list) 10 Schreiber 9 Pivetta (unless we can extend him) 6 Wikelman & O'Neill (deadline) 4 Walter 8.1 EValdez 3 Yoshida 2 McGuire 0 Martin (deadline?) -2 Jansen -66 Story I would strongly avoid trading: 51 Casas 45 Mayer 42 Anthony 18 Teel 17 Grissom 12 Rafaela (Would consider trading him, if we keep Duran and get a solid SP.) 9 Winckowski 8 Abreu 7 Cespedes 4 Romero (let him try to build back value), Perales & Zanetello

Agreed. I think we have to roll the dice and hope Bleis shows some value, this season. To me, I'm not even sure trading for a 3 year pitcher is worth it, unless the plan is to spend more in 1-2 years. I'd look for 4-6 year pitchers or punt on the idea, for now. Trading Jansen (or Yoshida) to make budget room for Monty would be okay with me, but it's kind of a waste, if we don't build support around him during his first 2-3 years.

To me, he's a tweener. I get the argument that just about every pitcher looks better as a RP'er han a SP'er, but to me, Crawford would be better used as a RP'er (long man,) as does Whitlock, Houck and maybe even Pivetta. Pivetta looks like the first choice to be in the rotation, to me. With Crawford and Whitlock both in the pen, I feel better with Houck as the SP'er over Crawford, but with the plan to pull him after the first 18 batters. Some numbers: Crawford in 2023 4.51 as SP (108 IP) .706 OPS Against 1.66 as RP (22 IP) .471 OPS Against (Career: 5.05 to 3.35 and .757 to .592) This bothers me more than those splits: Yes, he had a horrible first start (7 ER in 4 IP,) and his numbers were decent after that, but he also dropped off, towards the end of the season. Once he became a FT SP'er: 3.71 ERA/3.92 FIP (15 GS and 70 IP) 5.40/2.94 (6 GS and 28 IP) or 3.68/3.67 first 11 GS (51 IP) once becoming a FT SP'er. 4.75/3.62 last 10 GS (47 IP)

Hey! We got a top 100 pitcher!

It's not happening, unless this is some sort of Story, come to Jesus moment by the front office. Giolito. LMAO! I like the Grissom, Fitts and Campbell additions. They fit better into "Rays' Way." They can't even do that right.

About like EValdez. DH, maybe?

We may have to do so.

Sale is useless for a team tanking in 2024. I like Grisson, a lot. I'm not sure about Yorke. Maybe he's trade bait, now. Maybe he's utility or a back-up for Grissom.

What teams have signed the most top FAs, so far? (MLBTR rankings) LAD 1. Ohtani 3. Yamamoto 12. Teoscar 42. Heywood CIN 13. Candelario 32. N Martinez 44. Montas AZ 11. ERod 14. L Gurriel PHI 5. Nola (re-sign) SFG 15. Lee J-H 21. Hicks, J KCR 19. Lugo 24. Wacha NR Renfroe STL 9. Gray (NR: K Gibson & L Lynn) CHC 10. Imanaga DET 22. Flaherty 25. Maeda BOS 17. Giolito NYY 18. Stroman NYM 35. Manaea 36. H Bader 48. Severino SEA 23. Garver ATL 29. Lopez TOR 31. Kiermaier SDP 43. Y Matsui BAL NR Kimbrel Top teams with zero: TEX HOU TBR MIL MIN

Certainly, some of the players that look good or promising, now, may not be doing well in 2-3 years. Certainly, some of the prospects that look promising or very promising, now, will not come through, as hoped. What encourages me is that we have someone (or two to three) at nearly every key position, except the rotation. 2025-2026: SP1 _____ SP2 _____ SP3 Bello SP4 Crawford SP5 Houck (Fitts, Wikelman, Perales, Gambrell) RP1 Whitlock RP2 Winckowski RP3 Schreiber RP4 Fitts/Wikelman/Perales/Mata RP5 Bernardino RP6 Campbell RP7-8 Weissert/Slaten/Guerrero/Kelly/Murphy/Walter Monegro/Benitez/Oliveras C Wong, Teel (Hickey) 1B Casas (Jordan, Kavadas 2B Grissom/Story (Yorke) SS Story/Mayer (DHam, Romero) 3B Devers (Meidroth) LF Duran, Refsnyder (Rosier) CF Rafaela/Anthony RF Abreu (Castro) DH Yoshida/ EValdez

Back to the age thing. I'm not bragging on the "foundation" like it is stacked with studs or promising studs, but when you look back at the rosters of 2020 and even 2021, the lack of young and promising players was pretty noticeable. When I am talking about foundation, here, I'm not talking foundations of core studs like Betts, Bogey, JBJ and Devers. I'm talking about depth of a roster of decent players, role players and organizational depth that can support a winning team, if a few holes are plugged with stars- perhaps added from outside the organization at key moments. It's not the best "foundation" in MLB. It's not good enough to carry a team void of enough stars to be fave for the playoffs, but IMO, it is pretty good, and it's better than we had before. Many of these foundational players have 3+ years of control and are in prime, the beginning of prime or are pre-prime. There is a chance enough improve as they near or go through prime to create a situation where our FO gets off their asses and realizes a couple key additions could get us to some sort of glory, again. (That's not a prediction or projection, or even an expectation, but I do hope that day comes, sooner rather than later.) I laid out the core of younger pitchers- homegrown and otherwise, by age, but here is a look at the whole roster by age: Pitching: 24 Bello 5, Mata 6, M Castillo 5 25 Winckowski 5 & Murphy 26 Slaten & Campbell 5 27 Crawford 5, Houck 4, Whitlock 4 & Walter 6 28 Schreiber 3, Kelly 6 & Weissert 5 (Most with 4-6 years of control) 30 Pivetta (1) Everyday "core" 23 Grissom 5, Rafaela 5 24 Casas 5, Abreu 5 25 E Valdez 5 26 27 Duran 5, Wong 28 Devers 10, McGuire 29 30Yoshida 4, 31 Story 4 I left out all the prospects, but there are plenty that could add to this core- just not many pitchers.

While Gio might be an innings eater, he won't even replace Paxton + Sale's innings. We are left with Bello, Gio and 3 tweeners, again. Maybe Pivetta can give us 170-180 IP and it's 2 tweeners- all better utilized in the pen and likely wasted as SP'ers.

Or, in neutral, which is not good for the car's engine.

It's like a slight improvement on Kluber, Wacha/Hill, Richards and Martin Perez- like it's by enough to fool us, again. NOT!

We've heard a lot about the "state of pitching on the farm," and I totally agree with the belief that it is in shambles and needs to be a top priority by ownership. Perhaps a change has already begun, but this is te type of thing that takes years to even notice improvement and then a few more to see tangible results. Our winning teams dating back to 2004 were largely made up of SP'ers and closers acquired by trade or free agency. Nothing has come close to the years of Clemens, Hurst and Tudor. The Lester, Buchholz and Masterson stretch seems like an outlier. Not much has changed, in this area. I will say that, as bad as our farm looks, right now, for pitching, we do have a nicer core of young pitchers on the MLB staff that are homegrown or who came to the system as prospects. It might be the best core in a decade or more. 24 Bello, Mata 25 Winckowski, Murphy 26 Slaten 27 Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Walter 28 Kelly Plus some added as non prospects: 24 Max Castillo 26 I Campbell, 28 Schreiber, Weissert 30 Pivetta We've had better pitchers than the 5 I highlighted, but when was the last time we had 5 that were all as good as these 5? Now, 5 is not nearly enough, but it is better than we had before

The "full throttle" statement was the dagger in the heart, and it might be the pinnacle of all sham statements made in the last 4-5 years. To me, for this ownership group to get back some of the trust of the fanbase, they need to have a deep dive huddle and come to a consensus on what the plan is and then aligning the messaging with that plan, whether they think the fans will approve or not. The gigi is up on these guys. They simply cannot keep believing the fans are buying their BS. It has to start here.

I can see both sides to this issue and kind of agree with both. I was a big Brewers fan starting their first year in Milwaukee, where my family and I lived. I became a huge Tommy Harper fan, and when he was traded to Boston, not long after my family and I moved to Maine, I switched to being a Red Sox fan. Players and stars do matter. To me, they matter a bit more when your team is losing (as in not winning rings.) It hurt like hell, when the Sox dismantled that team of the mid to late 70's. Not winning as many games, seemed to hurt less. I remember, on that "other site," a guy named softlaw was irate over the dismantling of the 2004 championship team and called for Theo's firing. He berated the rest of us as being "Theo apologists" and the whole pink glasses thing. While many fans did not like seeing Sox stars go elsewhere, the new rings sure quieted them. The 2013 ring season is the epic example of a team, nearly completely overhauled from previous seasons, yet we hardly heard a peep from those of us who "love stars" and long term players with one team. When teams lose, it comes out. Many other issues come out, as well, like not spending. Funny how that 2013 had just dumped a massive amount of contract costs on LAD and spent about $20M less than 2012. Who complained? It mostly comes out, when we lose. I loved watching that 2013 season by Vic, Napoli and other non stars. As much as the idea of boycotting the Sox in 2024 has appeal, I'm going to watch every Sox game, again- just like I have for decades. I'm going to root for every player. I'm going to get excited and optimistic about some of our younger and improving players. I'm going to be pissed, when we lose, and that should be more often than I had hoped for, after last season. While I know nothing is for certain about prospects, I like what I see. I wish we had more young pitchers on the farm, but I do think the core or pitchers on the big club that started in the Sox system or came to us as prospects i as good as its been, in a long time. I know that is not saying much, but I think we have a decent core of younger pitchers, but still have several gaping holes in our rotation. This team is pretty young. We have several promising young and pre-prime players, as well as nationally ranked top prospects. We can choose to be optimistic about that or not. We can choose to point out the long range hole in the pitching area. I won't argue there isn't one. We can argue other teams have more young stars plus prospects than we do, but I truly believe we have more than we did a few years back, and that is a sign of moving the team in the right direction, despite JH seemingly sabotaging the teams of today. I'm not forgiving him for this, or turning the other way. It sucks what he's doing. I can feel optimistic about the extended future while being disgusted by the here and now, without being hypocritical- I think.

They should just go total sell off, at this point. It's all out in the open. No need to hide, anymore, turtles. No need for the sham, anymore.

That's all factored in. (Yes, I should have added the words "modern day" or "metrics.")