moonslav59

A look at the 2024 Red Sox pen: I'll leave the talk of Pivetta, Houck and Crawford as possible relief pitchers and assume Whitlock and the "stretched out" Winckowski and Criswell will likely start off in the pen. I'll leave out talk of trading Jansen or adding pen pieces. Here is what we appear to have, right now: Closer: Jansen saw his numbers slip some at age 35, and now he's a year older. I still think he is a plus closer, and should help us hold down games handed over to him. Top Set-up (back up Closer:) Martin will turn 38 in April, but has not shown any signs of decline. In fact, his last two seasons are among his best back-to-back seasons in his career, if not the best. The 51 IP was his 3rd highest of his career. I'm hopeful he can hold off age decline for one more season. RP3: I have Winckowski here, but soxprospects.com has him as the #1 SP for AAA to start 2024. Wink was one of our best RP'ers in 2024, despite having a 3.3 BB/9 and a WHIP of 1.42 and an FIP of 3.91. I hope we keep him in the pen. RP4: Whitlock was one of the best RP'ers in MLB in 2021 (1.96 ERA/2,84 FIP and 1.105 WHIP) Many feel they messed him up by starting him, and it looks like he will be in the pen to start 2024. Let's hope he can return to close to what he was in '21. RP5: Schreiber looked pretty good in 2022 and battled some injuries in '23. Maybe he can get back to his '22 level. RP6: Bernardino might be just a flash in the pan, as many RP'ers are, but he looks like he has some real promise. RP7: Slaten is supposed to be a very promising pitcher. Only time will tell. RP8: Mata is out of options, so will be given a look before a decision is made to trade or DFA him, if he is struggling. This kid had some high hopes, several years ago, before all the injuries and rehabs. He might surprise us all. Depth: Campbell should get plenty of chances to earn a slot on the 26. He is likely better than 2-3 listed on the MLB staff. Criswell is probably a crap shoot. I'm not counting on much, but RP'ers are often a dice roll away from being useful or not. Murphy surprised a bit in 2023. He could win the lefty role. Weissert turns 29, soon and has some ML experience with a 4.29 FIP and 1.28 WHIP. Kelly showed some promise before getting hurt for 2023. Maybe he can get that back. Guerrero could be a surprise, this year. AAA SP'ers (Castillo, Walter, Fitts, Gambrell) This group may see some time in the pen in 2024 with the big club. I like Fitts quite a bit. Extended depth (Weiss, Jacques, Benitez, Olivares, Hagenman, Politi, Booser, Hoppe & Troye) Let's hope we don't need to go this deep, but there is hope 1 or 2 might rise up and get a look-see. All-in-all, our pen looks about average. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I feel it could be top 10, if 2 out of the 3 I listed above, Houck, Crawford & Pivetta, can spend more time in the pen than the rotation, or stop being jerked back and forth and just stay in the pen, all year.

I like this guy's chances at being a nice plus.

If you have 2-3 guys in your pen who can go 3-5 innings, then you can afford to have a quick hook, early in games, before it becomes "mop up." Take Houck: he has issues after facing batters twice. He really needs to be yanked after 18 batters, almost every game. If we have Pivetta, Crawford and Whitlock in the pen, it's no problem.

Out of Pivetta, Crawford, Houck and Whitlock, none have put together a full season of pitching like a solid #3 or better. All have a nice stretch or two of 8-20 or even 24 starts in a row pitching like a 2 or 3, but it's too much to expect most of them to do something they have never done for a whole season. We are also asking 3 of the 4 I listed to blow past their highest MLB IP total AND at a better or equal pace to their best stretch. Hoping one can might be asking too much. Hoping two can is a very long shot. Hoping 3 can is setting yourself up for a major disappointment.

Agreed. While we have some hopes for 5-6 pitchers, and all have had some nice stretches of doing well as starters, we will need a perfect storm of everyone doing their career best or matching it, all at the same time, to have a real chance. Okay, maybe just 4 of them. We have very little wiggle room, and must be healthy, too. To me, it's too much to ask, as of now, and the way these guys are talking, I'm not encouraged about any major additions to the rotation by opening day.

Well, the Sox used Pivetta that way: His first 11 RP outings: 4 times he went ito his 3rd inning or completed 3 innings, then he went... 3.1 4.0 5.0 1.0 5.0 Then started a game for 7.1 4.0 in the pen then started 2 games (4.1 & 5.0), then 5.0 0.2 2.0 3.0 Then he finished the season starting. In 2022, Houck had these outing from the pen: 3.0 4.0 3.0 before becoming the finisher and 8th inning guy. In 2021, Whitlock pitched numerous games into or up to 3 IP, but most were 1-2 IP.In 2022, after being demoted from the rotation, he pitched many games of 2-2.2 IP. In 2022, Crawford only pitched 9 games in relief, but that included: 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 5.1, In 2023, these in relief: 3.0, 6.1, 4.0, 2.1

At least they are usually not $15-25M a year/

With the 2024 rotation, I foresee many more opportunities for 3-5 inning relief jobs.

I'm not thinking Jordan, Paulino or Mata will amount to much, but there is a risk they might. I like Urquidy's ability to eat innings and allow Houck or Crawford to be in the pen, more often. I wish we could do better, but at $3.8M arb, he fits the profile, IMO.

He'd be a 3-5 innings guy in the pen, so it's like starting, anyway.

I suggested Jordan, because he seems blocked. Giving Paulino & Jordan would be a gross overpay according to BTV, but I might do it. (If they want Mata, I'd go Jordan & Mata.)

Not every pitcher he has acquired, this winter are high K guys.

The value of Craw in the pen is worth it, IMO. If the guy sucks, DFA him and then move Craw to the rotation.

^Yes, he was hurt and apparently pitched while injured, for a while. I know he's not a high K man, and you and Brez value that more than I do, but from 2021-2022, he posted these numbers: 21-11 3.81 (1.098 WHIP) 4.42 FIP 48 GS and 271 IP 105 ERA+ 3.9 K:BB He's pretty close to Houck, and having Houck in the pen is a big plus.

Trade or DFA Mate. Trade for Slaten, so he can go to AAA. Start bernardino in AAA. 1-2 will be on the IL. Push Houck and Crawford to the pen. It wouldn't hurt to start Schreiber in the AAA pen, either.

He may not fit the Brez profile, but he's better than many we have, right now, and if he can push Houck to the pen, he's worth it.

There have been rumors of an Urquidy trade for months, down here. They do have SP'er depth, so I could see them trading him for a prospect. Urquidy for Jordan and or Paulino?

That's probably the right price range they are looking at. Hey, sign 2-3 like him, and maybe 1 will be trade worthy at the deadline.

I would be fine with it, especially Anthony and Teel.

I'm guessing Paxton, but maybe Lorenzen or Junis gets the nod.

Agreed. That's why I think Criswell takes his slot. (I did not even list him on my SP depth chart.)

Locking up Bello and Casas makes a lot of sense. I might also try to extend Pivetta to 2-3 more years, but I'm not sure what he'd agree to. Everyone else seems too risky to lock up beyond their years of control (Wong, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Crawford, Houck, Wink...)

I would not be surprised, if they try to get under the $20M line, this season by trading the guy they know they will not re-sign (Tucker, Breg or Altuve) or maybe even Verlander. Trading Urquidy puts them under the 2nd line, too.

Maybe Criswell replaces Van Belle to start 2024. I wasn't trying to say we have great depth. I was just pointing out where Criswell might fall in that depth chart. (9th to 12th?)

Maybe Brez will swoop in on some last minute bargains... or not.