moonslav59

Property taxes are 1.14% in BOS vs 1.4% in NYC, but maybe Soto will rent. Cost of living is significantly lower in Boston. One site says NYV is 60% higher. By state: Sales Tax: 6.25% MA and 4% NY Income Tax: MA 5% (increases to 9% on income over $1M) NY 10.9% CNN Money article that lists Tax Dollars state by state. It lists New York as the #1 state for total taxes per $1,000. This is compared to Massachusetts which they had ranked as #40. To be fair, this is because of the low sales and excise tax rankings. When you are just looking at personal income, then New York is number 1 with Massachusetts coming in at number 8.

Okay, that statement did caste doubt about the legitimacy of the 2020 ring. You are right. But to me, this all started with a claim made that the Dodgers are "two steps ahead." I still think they are not. Maybe one step ahead, if you set the time frame at exactly 1 year or 5 years (2020-2024.) It is tainted, IMO, but still legit. The Dodgers are the only team that has 2 rings in 5 years, 6 years or 7 years. One could argue that puts them one step ahead. On spending, maybe 2 or 3 steps ahead of almost every other team. If you go to 8 years, it's 2 for LAD & HOU although one could "taint" the 2017 Astros ring, too. You have to go back to 2013 to add the next 2 ring team. That is a 12 year period: LAD, HOU & BOS. Go to 13 years and add SFG. Go to 15 years and SFG has 3, BOS, HOU & LAD with 2. Go to 18 years: 3 BOS & SFG, 2 HOU & LAD. Go to 21 years: 4 BOS, 3 SFG, 2 STL, HOU, LAD You need to go back 27 years (1998) to get a team to match 4 rings (NYY). 29 years to get a 5 win team (NYY.) Nobody can argue the Yanks or Sox are 2 steps ahead, or even 1. Time frame matters, of course. The Dodger have been way ahead in top money signings over the past few years, and they are one step ahead in rings over the last 1-7 years. I grant them that. They made two of the highest paid contract signings, ever, last winter, while also having the third highest contract (Betts) already on the books. (Freeman was a top 50 signing back in 2022.) They just signed Snell, giving them 2 of the top 4 $/yr and 4+ year deals in MLB history and 4 in the top 20- plus the Yamo signing. Highest value/year all time (more than 3 years) 1. Ohtani $46M LAD 2. Judge $40M 3. deGrom $37M 4. Snell $36.4M LAD 5. Cole $36M 6. Trout $35.5M 7. Strasburg $35M 8. Rendon $35M 9. Lindor $34.1M 10, Correa $33,3M 11. Greinke $32,5M 12. Arenado & Seager $32.5M 14. Machado $31.8M 15. Devers $31.5M 16. Miggy & Price $31M 18. Kershaw $30.7M LAD 19. Betts $30.4M LAD 20. Scherzer, Machado $30M

Excellent point, and this goes to the core position I have held for over 5 decades about the Sox and what made us winners vs losers. For 3 decades, we seemed to always be 1-2 quality pitchers away from winning a ring. 1972, 1975, 1978 and 1986 were key examples, IMO. It wasn't until JH and Theo came along, that this philosophy came into being. Dan D brought us Pedro, but it wasn't until we added Schilling that the first ring came to us. Later, when Pedro was gone, we added Beckett to ensure a ring. Although Lackey was not an ace, I don't think we win in 2013 without him. Sale & Price in 2018 were the difference makers. It's hard as hell for the Sox to win with just one top pitcher. Other teams did it. We did have several years where we had 2 quality SP'ers and did not win a ring, but IMO, we never won a ring with just one. 1972: Siebert 3.80 & Marty Pattin 3.24 (Curtis 3.73 & McGlothen 3.41) was awesome, but that was the year the strike allowed us to miss the pennant by 1/2 game due to the unbalanced schedule the league allowed. 1975: Tiant 4.02, Bill Le 3.95 and Wise 3.95 was a nice 3. We went 7 games. 1986: Clemens was a god at 2.48. Hurst 2.99 and Boyd 3.78 were damn good, too. We went 7 games. 2003: Pedro at 2.22 was godlike, too, but no other SP'er was under 4.09 (Wake) Several seasons between 2005 and 2019 had teams with 2 or more quality SP'ers and we got no ring. It is no guarantee, just as '72, '75, '86 were close calls, but all of our 4 ring seasons, we saw 2 high quality SP'er and either a really good closer or a 3rd quality SP'er, too. The Yanks have known this for many decades.

Exactly, and although I am as high on Anthony as anybody in the world, and I'm not "for" trading him, he could be the best trading chip in MLB, right now for a top SP'er, including guys like Skubal, Skenes, Kirby and Gilbert. (not by himself, but any team would listen, if you opened your offer with Anthony as the headline- maybe Duran, as well.) Both of these, Duranless or Anthonyless OFs still look awesome: LF Soto CF Duran RF Abreu/Rafaela platoon (Campbell?) or LF Soto CF Anthony RF Abreu/Rafaela platoon (Campbell?) Trading for a younger pitcher is safer than signing Burnes or Fried to a 6 or 7 years deal.

I said I think the ring is legit but not as valued as champs from 150+ seasons. What is wrong with that position? What's the beef? Isn't saying the ring is legit, the same position you hold?

I liked Holmes, too. Apparently, he was signed to be given a shot at starting. I'm not sure if that was a major reason for choosing where he signed, but we'd have needed him in the pen. Scott is the only big name RP'er left. Estevez is okay. Maybe yates has another good year left.

Good point. I forgot how young Vladdy is. I do think Casas is a damn good hitter, and Vladdy is no whiz on D, but better than Casas. OPS+ 2022-2024 138 Vladdy 125 Casas OPS+ 2023-2024 141 Vladdy 126 Casas Ages 23-24: 126 Casas (just 745 PAs) 125 Vladdy

LOL, now who is pie-charting something? I'm not sure how much less I value it. I do think it takes 150+ games to get the proper teams identified for the baseball playoffs. 60 falls way short. I do think the Dodgers and Rays were good enough to make the playoffs in 2020, had it been 150+ games, but maybe their seed would have been different, and they'd have played different teams in the playoffs. To me, the 2020 ring counts less than any other season in the modern era. By how much? I don't know or even care. If you put a gun to my head, maybe I'd say about 10-20% less, which isn't a lot. Do you think the batting champs and HR leaders should be fully recognized, too?

I would not count Wilson as a RP'er signing. He's one step ahead of being a minor league depth signing. Our pen was awful over the second half of 2024. Adding Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson does not even equal the loss of Jansen and Martin, IMO. Adding 2 SP'ers would push Crawford to the pen, and I guess we could count Whitlock as a pen addition, too, but someone will get hurt. I'm not sure Scott is still in play, for us, as Chapman and Wilson are both lefties, but I think I'd rather have Fried and Scott than Fried and Nate. Scott will be cheaper, too, and maybe the savings can go towards another pen arm or upgrading what we can spend on a RHB and or catcher. Who is your back-up or starting catcher? Wong & Gasper?

Roki Sasaki will be posted soon. He's only 23 and will be all next season. He did pitch 129 IP at age 20 and 111, this year. He has 2.02 career ERA, which dipped to 2.35 in 2024. His WHIP is a mind-blowing 0.883 and was about 0.770 from 2022-2023. It also dipped, this year (1.036) His career 4.03 K:BB rate is very nice. In 2024, he had a 10.5 K/9 rate and 2.6 BB/9 rate, both worse than 2022 and 2023, but still very nice. This could be a major signing that addresses the here and now, as well as the extended future.

Yes, I know abt other strike shortened seasons. I can't forget the '72 season, where we finished 1/2 game out to the Tigers due to unbalanced schedule, but that was a 155 games long. 1981 was almost 120 games (almost double 2020's length.) I think '94 was about 105 games long. I would say those season champs were slightly tainted, but not by as much as 2020. I'm t buying the part about them being really good before and after 2020. Sox fans should be well aware how teams can vary from one season to the next. Again, I am saying the 2020 WS is legit, but I don't count it as equal to a 162 game season champ. The Dodgers did have to win a best of 3 (MIL), a best of 5 (SDP), a best of 7 (ATL) and best of 7 series (TBR) to be champs, and that is not easy. It counts- just not as much. I can understand your position, and agree it is "legit," but can you really not understand why someone might think it has lesser value?

I'd rather trade for Pablo Lopez and sign a better defensive guy to play 3B (Adames or Bregman) and moce Devers to 1B/DH. To me, we don't need a 1Bman. (We don't really need a LF'er either, but Soto's bat is a major upgrade. I'm not sure that even if we extend Vladdy, he will outhit Casas over the next 5 years, combined.)

Normally, I'd say it could have just been a fluke, but we hit .651 in Sept 2023, so it may be more than an outlier. The Devers injury was big (.496 in SEP w 7th most PAs.) The big bomb was Duran leading the team in SEPT PAs and also having a .596 OPS. Yoshida hit .633, Rafaela .512 and Abreu .517- all were top 9 in PAs Ref had only 19 PAs in Sept (1.186,) and nobody had over 30 PAs and an OPS over Tristan's .790 mark. That suggests a total team meltdown. Our hitting is a big concern, but IMO, our ace and closer slots are far bigger concerns. We also have help on the way, from the farm, on offense (and defense.) We don't have much, in terms of pitching, except a pretty large amount of pitchers that are decent AAAA type depth guys. We need top quality pitchers, and just two is likely not going to be enough. I think that unless we have a very large winter budget, there will not be enough to spend on bats. Much depends on our willingness to pull off a major trade or two, as well.

I can honestly say, I'd argue it "counts" but not as much as a full season championship. I have always highly valued the 162 game season as needed to vet out the best of the best.

Wow, you did not dismiss this trade, out of hand. I think, a first. 🙃

Good point: maybe sub Bleis or Perales for one of the SSs. I'd hesitate to trade Montgomery.

I did say "I can't see us getting both," but I do think, if we lose out on Soto, the fans will settle for nothing less than one of the two. My guess is Fried and I'm thinking maybe they go with Adames or Bregman. The major issue I have with signing a 3Bman is this: I love the idea of moving Devers to share 1B/DH with Casas, and adding one of Bregman or Adames does the trick, but with Yoshida entrenched at DH, trading Casas would likely happen. To me, losing Casas negates the gains made by improving 3B defense. I really like Tristan's bat, too much. This is a big reason I have spent so much time exploring ways to dump some of Yoshida's contract, even if it means taking on a bigger contract in return, but for a position of need (P or 3B) so we can keep Casas. I don't see this as a solution: C: Wong & ____ 1B/DH: Devers/Casas 2B: Campbell/Mayer (DHam/Grissom) SS: Story/Mayer 3B: Bregman/Adames/Arenado LF: Yoshida/Refsnyder CF: Duran RF: Anthony/Campbell (Trade Abreu and or Rafaela for pitching)

One guy I hoped we'd sign, if no Scott, is Jeff Hoffman. Apparently, he is about to re-sign with PHI. He has really improved over the last 3 years. First 7 years combined: 5.96 ERA/5.49 FIP/1.61 WHIP/1.8 K:BB (8.2 K/9 to 4.5 BB/9) 2022 (age 29): 3.83/4.30/1.41/1.96 (9.1 to 4.6) 2023 (age 30): 2.41/2.57/0.92/3.63 (11.9 to 3.3) 2024 (age 31): 2.17/2.52/0.96/5.56 (12.1 to 2.2) I doubt we'll sign Scott, and with Holmes gone, I'm not seeing much left, except via trade. Maybe Estevez could work out?

Unless we sign Scott or trade for a top closer, I don't see that much top pen help on the FA market. It's a lot cheaper to sign Scott than a second top SP, so it makes sense to sign Fried and Scott over Burnes and Fried, in terms of budget cost. In theory, we could stay under the second tax line with this: $30M x 7 Burnes $27M x 7 Fried $17M x 5 Scott $6M x 1 Carson Kelly (This would also push Crawford to the pen for another improvement there.) I just can't see us getting both pitching prizes, but with the money apparently available for Soto, it makes me wonder. Probably, pie-in-the sky might be Fried, Adames, Hoffman, C Kelly.

Yes.

Right, you are. Thanks for setting me straight.

I think all the minor league rotations look very interesting and mostly promising. We don't need all to step up a notch or two- just 2-3 per level.

MLBTR is saying the Soto deal may reach $700M (beating Ohtani's $461M) and go to 14 years (one more than Harper's record 13 year deal.) Nit sure about referrals or opt-outs. $50M x 14 seems beyond an "overpay," and if we could get Burnes at $245M/7, Fried at $210M/7 and Scott at $80M/5, we'd be saving $70M. However, the AAV would be $76M v $50M.

Soto, Burnes, Bregman, Manaea and O'neill but not Fried.

I thought I read somewhere that SEA was talking to STL about Arenado. To me the inclusion of Yoshida would be the sticking point in the trade, and it one big plus for the Sox to get rid of most of his contract. Castillo may be in decline, but I'd rather pay him and Garver than Yoshida. Helsley seals the deal for BOS. I've been thinking more and more about Pablo Lopez, who seems like a better pitcher, going forward, than Castillo, AND he pitches for a team looking to trade salary. I've suggested deals for Lopez and Jhoan Duran, but I have no idea who MN likes or what they need. My guess is, they would want near ML ready top prospects, like... Mayer, Abreu, Priester, Fitts and Cespedes for the two. That may not be enough. They might insist on including Teel and adding Vaz or Jeffers to the return.