moonslav59

It's all on Soto's choice. If we don't spend on him or others, Sox Nation will erupt!

He's 32.

Carson Kelly should be affordable, especially if our $690M Soto offer is turned down.

Fried + Burnes will be cheaper than just Soto. Even the AAV might end up close.

$700/15 or 16 (ig MLB allows 16) is already too high. Just make the top offer and walk away.

There has to be a drop dead point for the Sox, and $700M seems higher than that.

Nobody should be.

If the $730M off to Soto is correct, we need to move on. We are NOT going to get Burnes and Fried, and I kinda think Scott is not a choice, so I'm not seeing a big second guy. Fried, Estevez, Carson Kelly and Bregman? (Trade Yoshida and Casas/Devers at DH/1B) Fried and Scott + Carson Kelly Fried, Flaherty or Nate, Estevez and Kelly? Trade Abreu and DHam for a RHB.

I do not think an 11-2 Texas deserves to be seeded ahead of 11-1 ND. 1. Oregon 12-0 or Penn St. 11-1 2. Georgia 11-2 3. SMU 11-1 or Boise St 12-1 4. Boise St 12-1 (or AZ St. if SMU loses) 5. ND 11-1 or Oregon, if they lose. 6. Texas 11-2 7. Penn St (if they lose) 8. Ohio St 10-2 9, Tennessee 10-2 10. Indiana 11-1 11. Alabama 12. AZ St or Clemson (if they beat SMU) 10.

If the Sox offer $730/15, do the Mets add $50M?

It could end up being AZ St at ND.

He is a RHB, and we could play Anthony in CF with Duran in LF, but I'd rather trade for a SP or RP+C.

That's a lot of money.

I like Fried more than Burnes. I'm not sure why.

Signed FAs: (ranked by MLBTR) 4. Snell $182M/5 5. Adames $182M/7 12. Kikuchi $63M/3 15. Severino $67M/3 21. Holmes $38M/3 23. Boyd $29M/2 27. Montas $34M/2 30. D Jansen $8.5M/1 36. Higgy $13.5M/2 44. Bieber $26M/2 d"Arnaud $12M/1 Chapman $10.75M/1 Remaining: 1. Soto 2. Burnes 3. Bregman 6. Fried NR Roki Sasaki 7 Alonso, 8 Flaherty, 9 Santander, 10 Manaea, 11 Teoscar 13 Walker, 14 Scott, 16 Profar, 17 Eovaldi, 18 Hoffman, 19 O'Neall 20 Torres, 22 Estevez 24 Pederson, 25 Heaney, 26 H Kim, 28 Pivetta 31 Quintana, 32 Conforto, 33 Scherzer, 34 Minter, 35 Goldschmidt 37 Buehler, 38 Yates, 39 Soroka, 40, Kittredge, 41 Gibson, 42 Kahlne 43 H-S Kim, 45 Verlander, 46. Sugano, 47 Robertson, 48 Ogasawara 49 Bader, 50 Turnbull, NR K Jansen, C Martin, C Morton, C Kelly

I saw Adames as a possible plan B for missing out on Soto (Devers to 1B/DH.) At that money, he's not the inpact guy Soto would be, so using the money for pitching makes more sense. Does this mean Bregman gets $200M/7? (HOU offered him $156M/6.)

If the Cards decide to go full reload, maybe a blockbuster could be made. To BOS: Sonny Gray $25M, $35M, $30M or $5M buyout ($25M AAV) $65M/2 or $90M/3 Arenado: $27M, $22M, $15M (AAV $25.6M x 2 and $30.6M in '27) counting $5M COL payment in 2025 and 2026. Helsley: $7M last arb Total Money: $49M in '25, $47M in '26, $20M in '27 (no Gray) AAV ($58M, $51M, $15M) To STL: Yoshida: $56M/ 3 (AAV $18M x 3) Crawford, Abreu, Cespedes and Fitts (Maybe we need to sub Mayer for someone.) The net cost to the Sox for a SP, 3Bman and Closer would be: $31M in '25, $29M in '26 and $2M in '27 AAV: $40M in '25, $33M in '26 and +$3M in '27

#10 Boise St won their conference title, so they will likely be seeded #3 or #4- sad, but true. If #8 SMU beats #17 Clemson, I think they get the #3 slot. If Clemson wins, I'm not sure if they get the #4 slot or #15 AZ St does. AZ St beat #16 IA St 45-19, today. Update projected: 1. Oregon- Penn St winner 2. Texas or Georgia 3. SMU (if they beat Clemson) or Boise St 4. Boise St or Clemson/AZ St 5. Notre Dame or Oregon (if Penn St wins) 6. Penn St or ND (assuming ORE wins) 7. Texas, if they lose to Georgia 8. Ohio St (up one, if GA loses) 9. Tennessee (up one, if GA loses) 10. Indiana (up one, if GA loses) Georgia might be 10th, if they lose 11. Alabama or SMU, if they lose to Clemson 12. AZ St or Clemson Miami has a case to be made over ALA, maybe So Carolina and Ole Miss, too.

Olney reported on X ... ...the Cardinals will probably have to cover some of Arenado’s salary or take back another unfavorable contract as a salary offset....It isn’t known whether or not the Cardinals would be open to eating money or taking an unwanted contract back, which could be a further obstacle towards a trade being completed.

I think it really comes down to trading Yoshida, at whatever loss it comes to, but we probably should wait until he is healthy, and hopefully is showing he can hit near .800 for a while. That might mean he starts the season on the non 60 day IL and then plays for 3-4 weeks + before we trade him. I've looked long and hard for a trade partner, this winter. The best hopes might be for Arenado, assuming STL takes his contract. We'd have to include some nice prospects, but not a top 4 or even 5. Maybe Arias or Cespedes & Bleis. Would you give Cespedes, Bleis & Yoshida for Arenado with no money involved? Arenado is owed $69M/3 with $10M paid by COL, so $59M /3 (22, 22 & 15) Yoshida is owed $54M/3- almost the exact same as Arenado. The tax number is: Yoshida: 18-18-18 Arenado: 26.5, 26.5, 30.5 (The difference here is notable to the Sox, esp 2027) Our D would be greatly improved, but we'd be taking on a declining 3Bman. He will be 34 to start 2025 and 36 his last year. He had an OPS+ of 125 from ages 23-30. It was 151 in 2022 at age 31, but then 108 in 2023 and 101, this year. Shocker: although he is a RHB with power, he his .646 vs LHPs in 2024. This was not a fluke, as he hit .665 v LHPs in 2023. Defense 2023-2024 DRS +7 Arenado vs -18 Devers OAA +15 Arenado vs -14 Devers Last 5 years: DRS +45 vs -41 OAA +44 vs -33

Same as anyone: he'll be 31 and wants a 6-7 year deal. They rarely sign over 30 SP'ers to longer term deals. Their longest SP deals now are ... $75M/6 Strider (pre-arb deal) $38M/2 Sale $30M/3 R Lopez (signed at 29-30 yrs old) Before that $20M/1 Morton 110 yrs old $32M/6 Teheran (signed at age 23) I can't remember them signing a big name FA pitcher to a long term deal.

I'm hoping Oregon beats Penn St for selfish reasons. If that happens, I think the seeding would go like this: 1. Oregon 2. Texas (assuming they beat TX A&M) 3. SMU or Boise St 4. Boise St or AZ St/IA St winner (or Clemson/UNLV assuming they upset SMU or Boise St) 5. Notre Dame vs worst big 5 champ 6. Penn St vs Alabama 7. Georgia vs IN 8. Ohio St vs TN 9. Tennessee 10. Indiana 11. Alabama 12. Worst big Conference winner In terms of best match-ups: ND vs IN

Yes, adding one SP'er like Fried, would give us Fried, Houck, Bello, Giolito & Crawford. That's not bad. We'd also have Criswell, Priester, Fitts and Dobbins as AAA depth, and maybe Wink as a spot starter. If we sign Fried and trade for someone like Pablo Lopez, we could improve the pen by moving Crawford there, or include him in that trade or another one that brings us a RHB or good RP+a one year catcher.

One key will be to identify which player to trade, and we better get that right. Trading at peak value is key, as well. Our OF currently as Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, Refsnyder, Yoshida, Campbell and eventually JH Garcia, Montgomery and maybe Cespedes. Or middle IF has Story, Mayer, Campbell, DHam, Grissom, Romy, Sogard and eventually Arias, Romero and maybe Meidroth or Cespedes. Our corner IF has Devers, Casas and Meidroth. Our catching has Wong and Teel (late '24/early '25) I may be in a distinct minority, but I'd be fine starting the year with a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. Keeping Mayer over Campbell, since he can play SS well makes sense, but I absolutely love Campbell (and Anthony.) Campbell may also play CF or RF. Keeping Teel seems like a no-brainer, since Wong sucks on D. If we have to trade one from Anthony, Campbell and Mayer, I'd go with Mayer and hope Story can stay healthy enough to bridge us to Arias or Romero. In the OF, I'd love to keep Duran and Anthony, and since I'm keeping Campbell, we should be set enough to trade Abreu and or Rafaela. If we sign Soto, that changes everything in the OF. We could go all times best: LF Soto, CF Duran, RF Anthony, or trade Duran or Anthony in a package for an ace, and go with an Abreu-Rafaela platoon in CF-RF. With no Soto, I'd feel comfortable trading Mayer, Abreu and some mid level prospects for the best pitcher we can get.

I'm liking Casas, more and more, despite the injury issues and awful defense. I'd like to see him DH 80% and play 1B 20%. Devers 1B 80% and DH 20%. By DH'ing so much, he may need less days off. This ould mean trading Yoshida or play him in LF (no Soto) or bench him. I'm all for Carson Kelly on a 1 year deal. Casas is one of the few lefty hitters we have that hits lefties well. Career vs R/L OPS .846/.772 Casas .910/.739 Devers .831/.632 Duran (.910/,665 in '24) .842/.514 Abreu .695/.539 DHam (.729/.532 in '24)