moonslav59

I did not have high expectations, this year. My W-L prediction seems very close to being exact. I'm NOT spinning this season into a success story. It was not. Saying there were a lot of fun tings to watch is not the same as saying we did well or were a success. I have been calling the FO a sham since winter. It was "avoidable." There was a lot of fun things to watch. Two different things.

Despite Whitlock's struggles in 2023, here are the numbers over his first 3 years in MLB (2021-2023) 158 Pitchers with 220+ IP SIERA: T8 Whitlock 3.27 (w Nola) xFIP: 16th Whitlock (Just below Franber and above P Lopez/Eflin) ERA-: T28 Whitlock 80 (w Steele & Peralta) The guy can pitch. He had 3 straight years over 70 IP. O GS in 2021 (46 as RP) 9 GS in '22 (23 RP) 10 GS in '23 (12 RP) He had a 1.96 ERA in his 4 GS in '24 (.616 OPSA). He has a career .693 career OPSA. (.695 v RHB/.689 v LHB) .593 High Leverage/.613 Late & Close 3.39 ERA/1.146 WHIP

I guess I wrongly assumed that most SSs can transition into at least acceptable defense at 2B. I'm ready to give up on Grissom at 2B, but we really have no room for him in the OF. To me, it's 2B or a trade.

I agree. My top dozen prospects are: 1. Anthony 2. Campbell 3. Mayer 4. Teel ( I see the gap between he and Mayer as about the same as Campbell & Mayer) 5. Arias (Biggest gap in top 10 is between he and Teel) 6. Montgomery 7. Perales 8. Cespedes 9. Jh Garcia 10. Bleis 11. Meidroth 12. Fitts

Word is that Teel is a plus defender, which keeps him top 4, in my book. I'd add Arias and maybe even Cespedes as stiff competition with Belies, Perales and Monty as the next top 4-5 prospect.

They could move Rafaela and have Campbell in LF, Duran CF and Anthony/Abreu in RF.

I do think Rafaela as the inside edge on the CF job, but I agree. Since I see Abreu being traded, I think that increases the odds on Rafaela being the FT CF'er. An O'Neill extension and/or Anthony promotion could change everything.

Not even a cursory Anthony mention. You have Romy over DHam. I think it's a toss-up, unless Story gets hurt- then Romy gets the nod.

Right in line with my repeated "Trade Abreu & DHam" suggestion. Both are LHBs. Both are in bottle-necked positions. I think we can fill a couple pen slots or get one really good set-up man for the package.

Save the hip: keep both!

I know, but he question my agreement with you and my "exactly" reply.

If we assume this, then what? Anthony, Campbell and Mayer (if healthy) have a starting or major playing slot on the 26 by mid summer 2025, and Teel is held back until 2026. (Meidroth is held back as injury insurance at 3B or other IF positions.) The 13 man everyday player roster might look like this, assuming all healthy: C: Wong + one year addition or Gasper/Heineman 1B: Casas (Romy AAA) 2B: Campbell, Grissom (DHam/Romy) SS: Story, DHam (Romy, Sogard AAA) 3B: Devers (Romy AAA) LF: Duran, Refsnyder CF: Rafaela/Anthony RF: Abreu/Anthony DH: Yoshida (Refsnyder/ E Valdez AAA) The problem: This is 14 players. If Ref retires, it's 13, but our RHBs are weak. (No O'Neill or Ref, but added Story & Campbell.) I suppose we can keep DHam in AAA and go with just Grissom as infield depth, but that is not ideal. If Ref stays another year, trading Abreu or Rafaela makes some sense. Even if he retires, trading Abreu may make sense.

I agreed that we cannot count on Houck, Bello and Crawford to start 90+ games in 2025. I do think pitchers who have long injury histories are more likely to get hurt than those without. I don't see anything in the post I said "exactly" to refutes anything I believe in.

Exactly. We have the trade capital to add 2-3 solid pitchers without adversely affecting our starting 9 at all, or much. (Hurting the depth or future, yes.) Even if we keep the budget the same or cut it a little, we have enough to add 2 solid pitchers or one really good one, as in better than Gio was, on paper, last winter.

I'd be happy with .760, GG defense and 550+ PAs.

I'd say the odds are against adding even even solid 1 SP and 1 solid RP. At best, maybe 2 solid RP'ers, one being a lefty might be peak expectation. In my opinion, at minimum, we need a 1-2 slot SP'er and 2 solid RP'ers (one being a closer type or one of the best set-up men in the game.)

He looked like a Cy Young candidate after 4 starts, but it's never been about his pitching skills. When he is "on," he has some of the nastiest stuff in MLB. It's about his durability and health.

I don't have high hopes, at all, but I will continue suggesting what I think is essential for us to become a serious contender (add 2-3 solid pitchers) or a serious WC contender (1-2 solid pitchers added.)

I simple cannot possibly disagree anymore. In fact, I think we need 2 solid SP'ers- an ace and a #3 type. 1. Ace added 2. Houck 3. #3 added 4. & 5. Bello, Crawford & Gio (We can be 99% sure, someone will be on the IL, so we need these three for 2 slots.) AAA Depth (or long relief) Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins Don't be surprised if Gio starts the season on the IL.

It is a bit scary to think we may very well pin a big chunk of our hopes on Story at SS, one more time. Sure, Mayer offers better depth than we've had since Bogey & Story were here and thought to be healthy, but Mayer is part of the Frequent IL Club, too. If Story and Mayer can just work out a schedule, where only one is on the IL, at the same time, maybe we can cobble together a full season of plus-plus SS play.

The only people who whose opinion matters is Brez, Bailey & JH & Co. I doubt anyone here thinks Whit should start in '25. Hardly any wanted it, this year. Our need for good pen arms gives us another good reason to make it happen, once and for all.

Indeed, but here is where I think we differ: 1. We have some very valuable everyday players and or prospects we can trade for one or two, without opening a gaping hole in the line-up. 2. Even if JH skimps on the winter budget, we should have more money to spend than most of those teams you were referring to. I'm not saying we do it. I'm just saying we have the resources to do it. (Hell, we have the resources to add 3.)

I think losing sucks, too, so I'm not sure we disagree on that. Did you really not have fun watching the games, this year, at least some of the time? Half the time? Some games were really fun, until the pen imploded. Do those games not count as being partially fun to watch?

At the risk of some thinking I'm only helping JH & Co make their sham case, I will say, I had a lot of fun watching this year's team. We had a few nice stretches, where we seemed to put it all together, and many more stretches where 1 or 2 aspects of out game were doing well or very well. For almost the whole season, our D sucked. For too much of the season, our pen sucked. Our rotation started our like a mythical beast, morphed into earthlings, then ended up doing okay. The offense was, pardon the expression, "hit or miss." We failed to get the key hit way too often. We had a nicely balanced line-up, by the numbers, but it didn't work out to enough runs to make up for the weak spots. Anybody that doesn't think it was fun as hell watching Duran, was not watching the same games I was. The Abreu-Refsnyder platoon was one of MLB's best, if not the best. Devers was about to break his career best OPS season, in a year when hitting was down, but that got derailed by an injury, he tried to play through. The multitude of injuries hurt our chances, but we did get some decent depth play from DHam, Romy and even D Smith. Yoshida came back and did okay. I feel better about Story after his return. Wong showed he was a top 10 hitting catcher, but his D was not fun to watch. We saw Rafaela struggle with the K Zone, but WOW did he make some very impressive plays on D, while also amazing us with so many RBIs with so few hits. Gotta hand it to Houck, who was viewed as the 6th starter by many. We lost Gio for 33 starts, Whitlock for 29 starts and others for a few, here and there. Considering this, the rotation did okay. They were mostly fun to watch. Slaten and Jansen were about the only good things from the pen. A couple other guys had good stretches, here and there, but not enough of them. I'm sure someone will disagree with me and claim it's no fun watching a team lose 3 years in a row, and so there is that aspect to consider, too. That part sucked. I will say, I feel much better about our 26 and 40 man rosters . right now, that I have since before the 2019 season. I feel much better about the farm- top to bottom, now more than any time since the start of the DD era. Call me a pink hat, rose colored glasses homer, if you must, but there is a lot to be optimistic about, and there really was some fun baseball, this year.

Don't forget Whitlock and Slaten. That being said, the Astros lost more than we did to injury.