moonslav59

Looking at the Sox pitching staffs since 2003, there are some eye-opening numbers, here... With 66 games still to play, the staff already has a higher fWAR (13.0) than 5 Sox teams (2012, 14, 15, 20 and 22.) 3.61 ERA is the best in 22 seasons (so far.) 3.73 2017 3.75 2018 3.79 2013 3.87 2007 (2004 was 4.19) 3.77 xFIP is #1 3.87 2014 3.89 2013 3.91 2017 3.92 2018 (2004 was 4.21) ERA- 82 2017 83 2007 84 2018 85 2024 89 2004 & 2008 90 2013 SIERA 3.79 the 2024 Sox are tops WHIP 1.19 the 2024 Sox (1.25 is 2nd '18 & '17) K/BB 3.4 2017 3.3 2024 3rd in K-BB% 3.0 2018 The 2024 Sox have the second lowest BAbip in 22 years, despite having awful defense behind them. UnEarned Runs: 98 2004 78 2003 73 2021 66 2010 & 2022 62 2014 60 2019 59 2024 Lead MLB & projects to about the second worst in 22 years. 58 2023 57 2011 55 2015 54 2016 53 2017 52 2005 & 2006 49 2012 43 2013 41 2009 39 2018 & 2008 (26 in 2020: prorated to about 65)

That is disputable! No cases are ever laid to rest on this site!

What "rule" prevents Mayer from joining "the list."

I don't know enough to have an opinion, but this does sound concerning. Thanks for the insights.

Texas did win 7 of 9 going into the AS break vs TBR, LAA and HOU. They have 11 games before the deadline, and they could get into the race, if they go 7-4 or better: 3 v BAL 4 v CWS 3 @ TOR 1 of 3 @STL (at deadline) They are 7.5 from the last WC slot, and 5 teams are between them, including the Sox and HOU.

Maybe Heaney, who we apparently kicked the tires on, before (twice?) (Bloom kicked the Eflin tires, but I'm not sure Brez thinks as highly of him.)

I think it is of approx value to get him, but yes, it depends on what the other GM wants.

For Crochet, maybe they take Anthony + [Fitts/Sandlin] + [Yorke/Lugo/Meidroth] +[Castro/Paulino/E R-C]

I'm not sure the deadline is the time to make big deals like this, but if the CWS are looking to trade Crochet, now, then we should make a strong offer. I doubt we do, but we have to face the music, someday, IMO. Our top 6 prospects are all non pitchers, and our 9 batting slots look pretty solid for 2025. Not that some cannot be improved upon, especially a big RHB and a more dependable middle IF'er, but this is not too shabby: C: Wong, McGuire (Teel, if not traded) 1B: Casas 2B: Story, DHam/Grissom/Romy/Yorke/Vadlez... SS: Mayer, if not traded, Story/DHam/Romy 3B: Devers LF: Duran/Refsnyder (Yoshida) CF: Rafaela (Duran) Anthony, if not traded RF: Abreu (Refsnyder) Anthony, if not traded DH: Yoshida, Refsnyder, Valdez (Lugo) Top 6 prospects: Anthony (We look pretty set in the OF, especially with LHBs) Mayer (We need help in middle IF more than OF and C, although Mayer is another LHB.) Teel (Teams always need catchers, and Teel might be able to DH or play 1B. Yet another LHB.) Campbell (Finally, a RHB, but not a plus defender at 2B/SS. If he ends up in the OF, we may have to trade Abreu or Refsnyder. Anthony is also in the OF mix.) Cespedes (RHB and position?) and Bleis (RHB and CF)- My position on these two is that we'd be selling low on them. Teams no longer value faraway prospects as highly as they once did. I tend to view them as the guys who will add minor league depth after we trade Anthony, Mayer or Campbell. Any prospect below #6 is open season, but trading pitching prospects have to be in a package that brings back a better pitcher.

Could we get one of your trio of pitchers for Lugo + Valdez/Paulino/Castro/Meidroth/Jordan? Maybe Yorke, Lugo and Meidroth could get us Flaherty or Fedde?

These might be our best targets at the deadline (2024 fWAR): Note: this is not the list I think we might realistically make strong offers for. SP 3.9 Crochet 3.4 Skubal 2.7 Fedde 2.5 Gore (not likely available) 2.3 R Olsen 2.1 Flaherty 2.0 Kikuchi 2.0 Bassitt 1.9 J Gray 1.7 Nate 1.8 Irvin 1.7 T Williams 1.6 Eflin 1.6 Gausman 1.7 Feltner (3.99 FIP) 1.4 Heaney 1.5 Littell 1.5 M Parker 1.3 Sandoval 1.3 Pepiot 1.2 T Anderson 1.3 Mize 1.0 Bradley (not likely available) 1.1 Floro 1.0 Soriano SS 2.2 CJ Abrams (not likely available) 2.1 E Tovar (Good on D) 2.0 I Kiner-Falefa 1.4 Chisholm (2B) 0.9 DeJong (2B) 2B (see SS, too) 2.5 M Semien (not likely available) RHB 3.0 Rooker (corner OF) 2.9 B Doyle (CF) Rafaela at SS FT in 2024. 1.5 Vlad (1B) 1.2 Roberts Jr (CF) Rafaela at SS FT in 2024. 0.4 Arozarena (LF) RP 1.8 M Miller 1.4 Robertson 1.3 K Yates Possibles on borderline sellers: SP 2.9 L Webb (not likely available) 2.3 H Greene (not likely available) 2.5 Imanaga (not likely available) 1.8 Steele 1.7 M Keller 1.5 J Jones 1.6 N Martinez 1.5 Taillon 1.3 B Brown 1.3 Lodolo 1.2 L Ortiz 1.0 F Cruz 0.9 Leiter Jr (not likely available) SS 4.4 E de la Cruz (Not likely available at age 22) 1.7 O Cruz (LHB who is not likely available at age 25) 1.2 Swanson 2B 2.4 India 2.0 Hoerner RP 1.0 R Walker RHB 2.4 M Chapman (3B, maybe 1B?) 2.4 H Ramos (OF, not likely available) 2.0 Happ (LF switch hitter) 2.0 B Reynolds (LF switch hitter) 1.4 Suzuki (RF)

I missed the fact he is a LHB. Pass, although the guy is a good defender.

I'm thinking the same for the Rule 5 eligible Yorke, or we move Valdez, the LHB. We may also look to trade Lugo, who is also Rule 5 eligible. Castro & Paulino are, too, but may not be selected, if left unprotected. I just listed over 10 players who play or pretend to play 2B/SS. It's time to weed some out of the system and try to go more quality over quantity, there.

Valdez is worse. Yorke is not very good on D. I'm not sure KC's D puts him behind either. I still think we roll with the DHam/Romy platoon, until it shows it no longer works. A Mayer call-up and Story return to health would squeeze that platoon out. Using Rafaela at SS or 2B, so we can play Duran, Refsnyder and Abreu (Anthony/KC/Lugo) in the OF in 2025 might also squeeze out DHam/Romy from starting roles. Ideally, we should improve on Rafaela, DHam and Romy at middle infield. We should look to make Rafaela the near FT CF'er, anyway. We could possibly trade Abreu and try to bring back O'Neill of the next 1 year guy in line with O'Neill, Duvall, Renfroe. Since Campbell bats RH'd, he might have a leg up on being added to the 40 and 26 as a LF'er and back-up or platoon 2Bman with DHam, assuming Grissom continues fizzling out. We need reliable/solid middle infielders not massive quantities of wings and prayers or flawed in certain areas: Story- injured most of the time and struggling at the plate when healthy. Grissom- injured and struggling since mid 2023 on O. Questions of his D moving from SS to 2B. Rafaela- not great on infield D and is much better in CF. Bat is still in question, too. Valdez- sucks on D and batting vs LHPs DHam- not great on D and struggles vs LHPs Romy- not great on D and struggles vs RHPs Mayer- still in AA K Campbell- sill in AA Yorke- in AAA, but struggled for a long time, until his recent promotion to AAA Meidroth, Sogard, Westbrook (sucks vs RHPs,) Alvarez look to be minor league depth That's close to 10 guys with some hopes- some slim to very slim.

What are the rules, and if they were made by our resident troll, count me out.

I mnetioned KC on another thread on who might be ahead of Yorke. I'm thinking KC might be mis season in MLB '25.

Good to see you back. This does look like a possible trade, but I kinda like the DHam-Romy platoon at 2B, assuming Rafaela stays at SS near FT.

Sounds like a top 2-3 scenario. If you had to guess, who gets the most innings at 2B in 2025, if... Mayer plays SS FT: _____ (I assume Story then DHam) Story plays SS FT: _____ (I'd assume a DHam-Grissom platoon.)

The Sox are 25-13 since May 31st. In those 38 games, nearly 1/4th of the season, here are some numbers: fWAR Player OPS 7.7 Red Sox batters .808 OPS (121 wRC+) 2.1 Duran .908 2.0 Devers 1.060 0.9 Rafaela .837 0.8 DHam .750 0.7 Valdez .973 (demoted) 0.7 O'Neill .834 0.6 Smith .824 0.5 Wong .790 0.2 Abreu .712 (was out for some time) 0.1 Refsnyder .777 & Romy .733 -0.1 Westbrook .693 -0.2 McGuire .458, Dalbec .469 (demoted), Yoshida .662 & Cooper (DFA'd) 11 Batters over .750, including EValdez who was demoted. Pitching fWAR Pitcher ERA- 4.3 Red Sox 94 (95 xFIP-) 0.9 Pivetta 100 0.9 Houck 83 0.7 Jansen 27 0.5 Crawford 58 0.4 Kelly 34 0.3 Booser 56 0.3 Bello 155 0.2 Criswell 87 0.2 Bernardino 94 0.2 Martin 0 (IL) 0.1 Slaten 101 0.1 Winkowski 75 0.0 Keller 100 & Horn 58 -0.2 Anderson 114 -0.3 Weissert 176 12 pitchers with a plus fWAR

Only 5 teams have less losses than the Sox 42, and look how close to 42 some are: 41 LAD 40 NYY 38 BAL 37 CLE (34 PHI is not really 'close.")

Pivetta going Friday v LAA Crawford Saturday. Bello Sunday Houck Monday v COL (Maybe Criswell Tuesday)

No Mayer? (Oh yes, you already traded him.)

If an .804 OPS (.814 vs LHPs as compared to Abreu's is shockingly better) is below his "potential," I'll take it. .845 OPS from '23-'24 .838 since 2021. Career: .963 vs LHPs +2.6 dWAR career

ML or near ML ready prospects/players in the minors with a better OPS than Yorke. Not many are worse on D than he is, either: 1.046 K Campbell (A+/AA, so may not be quite ready) 1.015 Kavadas (DH/1B) .984 M Lugo (DH/LF, but used to be infielder) .851 Westbrook (.693 but .818 OPS in MLB vs LHPs) .851 Dalbec (DH/1B/OF- not good at 2B) .844 Grissom (probably better on D at 2B than Yorke) .839 Mayer (SS in AA) .827 Alvarez (2B in AAA and bats LH'd) .823 Valdez (.783 career v LHPs & was red hot before demotion. Horrible D) .816 Sogard (AAA and bats RH'd. He can play 2B better than Yorke.) .808 Meidroth (AAA, where 2B is likely his best defensive position) .792 Yorke Plus... Romy was 1.088 in AAA and is .746 vs LHPs in MLB in 2024. DHam was .750 in AAA, but is at .745 in MLB w 23 SBs in 63 times on 1 or 2nd base. Platoon: .805 v RHP DHam .818 v LHP Westbrook or .746 v LHP Romy I'm not saying all the guys in red should be called up or added to the 40 before Yorke, but he is clearly not the obvious choice.

They say he will be, but go ahead and sub in Wink or Booser for him.