moonslav59

If Yorke did not bat RH'd, I might wonder why he is on this list. The DHam-Romy platoon at 2B is doing okay. (Rafaela at SS.) Valdez has already shown he can hit (RH'd pitchers.) I'd ass Mayer to the 40, then 26, before Yorke.

I'd trade a big 3 in a deadline deal. In fact I'd trade 2 top 4 like this... Mayer (2) Abreu (swap LHB OF for RHB OF) Bleis (4) any 2 from: Fitts, Sandlin, Winckowski, Valdez, Yorke, Lugo, Meidroth, Paulino, Castro For CF Luis Roberts Jr RHB ('25:$15M, '26:$20M club option ,'27:$20M club option) LHP Garrett Crochet SP (2 arbs remaining) 1. L Duran LF 2. R Roberts CF 3. L Devers 3B 4. R O'Neill RF 5. L Casas 1B (D Smith bench LHB) 6. R Refsnyder- L Yoshida DH 7. L DHam- R Romy 2B 8. R Wong C (McGuire LHB) 9. R Rafaela SS SP: Houck, Crawford, Crochet, Pivetta, Bello (Criswell- 6 man rotation/Long Releif) RP: Jansen, Martin, Hendriks, Slaten, Bernardino, Kelly, Weissert

Top Sox OPS from 2023 to 2024 (250+ PAs, unless noted) 1.019 Campbell .973 Cespedes .956 Gasper .948 Arias .935 Abreu .913 Dalbec (44 HRs) .885 Asencio (234 PAs) .883 Kavadas (38 HRs) .925 OPS from 2022-2024 .877 Teel .875 Asigen (206) .869 Rafaela (36 SBs) .864 Jo Garcia .851 Westbrook .851 Valdez .840 Anthony .834 Alvarez .818 Nunez .817 Salazar (240) .815 Jh Garcia .803 Meidroth (151 BB/138 Ks) .802 Jordan .799 DHam (57 SBs) .798 Musett .797 Hickey (28 HRs) .788 Yorke .786 Sogard .785 Mayer .783 Castro .777 Brannon

There are 8 or 9 players with a better OPS than Yorke, and Yorke sucks on D. Those are the undisputed facts.

2025 (assuming no O'Neill & DSmith) C: Wong, McGuire/Teel 1B: Casas (Romy) 2B: Grissom/DHam/Romy/Valdez/Yorke SS: Story (Rafaela/DHam/Romy/Mayer) 3B: Devers (Romy) LF: Duran (Ref) CF: Rafaela/Anthony RF: Abreu (Anthony/Ref) DH: Ref and Valdez platoon While I think adding a RHB would help our offense, unless the guy adds to our defense, too, I'm not seeing the need as being as great as pitching.

Refsnyder is one of the top 30 OPS guys, this year and top 30 vs LHPs for the last 3 years combined. He can DH, and will have to, if Rafaela ends up back in CF FT in 2025. (Duran-Rafaela-Abreu in OF with Anthony banging on the door.) We also have Valdez, who would be a nice DH vs RHPs. Having a platoon DH is not ideal, especially since both offer nothing on D, when they are not DH'ing, but they'd be way cheaper than Vladdy and may out OPS him in 2025.

What might work out well is that the Sox took some HS players high in the draft under Bloom (Mayer, Anthony, Yorke, Romero, Jordan, E R-C, Zanetello, Anderson) and then started taking college players afterwards (Teel, Campbell, Duffy and now Monmtgomery and picks 2-6th, so maybe they all start maturing about the same time- like in 2-4 years.

Bell, there should be at least one category between big bucks contracts and dumpster dives. Id' say about $20M AAV for 3+ years is one. $10-20M for $3+ years is another. $10-20M/1 or $5-10M for 3+ years is another $4 or 5-9M/1 is close to dumpster, but I would not use the term there. $700K-3-4M sounds about right, to me.

How did drafting Groome and TBall in the first round work out? I'm not saying those two failures should mean we never draft a pitcher, highly again, but taking the best player available is what most GMs do, and for good reason. The idea of trading everyday prospects for pitching is a good strategy, and there is plenty of evidence it works. The problem is, we haven't done it in a long while. The Pedro trade involved trading two top pitching prospects (Nate for Beeks, too), but these relied on or mostly on everyday prospects: Schilling Beckett Sale Lesser pitchers: Peavy for Iggy This winter, we should do it again.

I do think there was a conscious effort to draft more pitchers in the later rounds (5-20th rounds,) but to me, after the 4th round, so many players are valued very closely, so it's hard to tell if they actually drafted more pitchers, on purpose, of it they truly had them as "the best player" in those slots. The fact is, we drafted 2 position players in the top 4 rounds. Is that much different than this? 3 of 4 in '23, '22, '21, '18 2 of 4 in '20, '19, '17, '16 (Groome 1st rd), '14 Yes, different from... 1 of 4 in 2013 (TBall in 1st and Stanky in 2nd)

Deadline deals... (2 months + maybe playoffs)

If you had to guess, if and when healthy, does he win the 2B job from DHam/Valdez/Romy/Yorke in 2025? (assuming Story at SS not DHam/Romy/Mayer)

Here is a list or players on teams that might be sellers. It does not mean they are available or worth trading for: (In order of games behind WC slot and with 2024 fWAR 1.0+ pitchers/ 2.0+ batter w some notables under 2.0) -27.5 CWS 3.9 Crochet 2.7 Fedde 1.2 Robert Jr. 0.9 DeJong -17.5 OAK 1.8 M Miller 3.0 Rooker 1.4 Bleday -16.5 MIA 1.4 Chisholm -16.0 COL 1.7 Feltner 2.9 B Doyle 2.2 McMahon 2.1 Tovar -12.5 LAA 1.3 Sandoval 1.2 T Anderson 1.0 Soriano -9.5 TOR 2.0 Kikuchi 2.0 Bassitt 1.6 Gausman 0.2 Berrios 2.1 Varsho 2.0 I Kiner-Falefa 1.5 Vlad -7.5 TEX 1.9 J Gray 1.7 Nate 1.4 Heaney 1.4 Robertson 1.3 K Yates 3.2 Josh Smith 2.5 C Seager 2.5 M Semien -7.0 DET 3.4 Skubal 2.3 R Olsen 2.1 Flaherty 1.3 Mize 3.0 R Greene -6.0 WSH 2.5 Gore 1.8 Irvin 1.7 T Williams 1.5 M Parker 1.1 Floro 2.2 CJ Abrams 1.8 L Garcia Jr 0.6 Winker -5.5 TBR 1.6 Eflin 1.5 Littell 1.3 Pepiot 1.0 Bradley 3.0 Paredes 0.4 Arozarena Possible: -3.5 CHC 2.5 Imanaga 1.8 Steele 1.5 Taillon 1.3 B Brown 0.9 Leiter Jr 2.2 M Busch 2.0 Hoerner 2.0 Happ 1.4 Suzuki 1.2 Swanson 0,8 Bellinger -3.0 SFG 2.9 L Webb 1.0 R Walker 3.5 P Bailey 2.4 M Chapman 2.4 H Ramos 1.1 Yaz -3.0 CIN 2.3 H Greene 1.6 N Martinez 1.3 Lodolo 1.0 F Cruz 4.4 E de la Cruz 2.4 India -1.5 PIT 1.7 M Keller 1.5 J Jones 1.2 L Ortiz 2.0 B Reynolds 1.7 O Cruz

What would be the cost of a TOTR rental? IMO, not a top 3, and maybe not a top 5 or 6, either.

I think rentals might be gotten for Paulino or Casstro or maybe Lugo + Valdez/Jordan.

I'm a big fan of Abreu, and I loved the Vaz trade, but I also think other GMs like him, too. We appear to have some blocked prospects that are ML or near ML ready and some young ML'ers we could package together to get a better player than Abreu, but who bats RH'd. We lose O'Neill, this winter, so it would help for 2025 and beyond, too. Abreu plus a combination of 1-3 from these guys for a RHB who plays RF: Valdez McGuire Yorke Lugo Meidroth Paulino Castro Romero Kavadas Hickey, Jordan, Wikelman, Guerrero, ICoffey, T Miller, McDonough, Decker Mata (out of options and would be nice to trade, soon) Winckowski (for the right guy, and if he is still half in the doghouse)

I'm worried about Casas for 2024. While DSmith has been doing better, improving on him would be nice. I still think SP, SP, SS/2B ans RP are higher priorities, I'd be fine with an add like him. If JH would agree to a budget bump, we could probably get a SP'er and Turner from TOR without giving up top prospects. (AAV without pro-rating 2024) $22M x 2.3 Gausman $22M x 1.3 Bassitt $19M x 4.3 Berrios $13M x 0.3 Turner $10M x 0.3 Kikuchi Rentals Kikuchi and Turner should not cost a top 6-9 prospect, well maybe Fitts or Sandlin. Getting Berrios and Turner would be costly, and Jose just turned 30, so I worry about 4 years from ages 30-34. Bassit is 35, but 1.3 years is not too scary and shouldn't be too costly. Gausman and Turner would likely cost us Campbell or Cespedes or maybe Cespedes & Bleis plus others, minimum, and might cost a top 3. I'd prefer a deal like these to Vladdy.

Yes, I basically said that in my last paragraph. I would like to see us do it, this winter. Any top 3 prospect plus 2-3 prospects from #7 down for a solid SP with 3+ years of control without going over age 31. I might even be okay with trading a top 4 plus Bleis or Cespedes and Fitts or Sandlin for an ace with 3+ years of control. That's a 1-4 + a 5-6 + a 7+.

No, and I went a few times 5-50 years ago.

Agreed. In terms of new pitcher additions, we swung and missed on many dumpster dives and mid-level signings and trades, after the Sale/Nate extensions. Here are the ones who worked out okay or better, some "borderline" okay. (We missed on the "timing" with Perez I and II and Springs.) Trades: Pivetta & Winckowski Rule 5: Whitlock FAs: Wacha, Hill, Paxton, Criswell (Perez had the same ERA as Bello has.) Our homegrowns have done better: Houck, Crawford, Bello

When we draft a pitcher in the first round, I will be convinced, but you are correct in noting a change was made. We did still draft an everyday player in 2 of the top 4 picks (1 and 4.) The lower picks are not as significant, and "best available" is not such a clear thing. They all have very similar value, with some having more "sure value" vs others with more "upside value." (Pitchers seem to have more upside value.) I like this draft, on paper.

Agreed. Both Bleis and Cespedes have too much upside potential value to trade, now. I also like keeping Anthony and Teel over Mayer and Campbell, but I'd like to keep all 6. You have to give to get, and I'd trade any of the top 6, plus 2-3 from the below #6 prospects for a solid SP'er with 3 or more years of team control below age 30-31. Those type of deals are way more common during the winter- not at deadlines.

Agreed. He has not come close to the numbers he put up in 2021. He may come close, someday, but he's too risky. Plus, we have a 1Bman (Casas) and DH (Yoshida/Ref/Valdez/O'Neill) It would make more sense to get a big RHB that plays middle IF or even OF, if we swap out Ref or Abreu plus prospects for a better RHB one.

Why 2B over SS? A DHam-Romy (Valdez/Grissom) works okay at 2B. While using Rafaela at SS works well, in terms of getting ABs for Duran, O'Neill, Abreu and Refsnyder, both Abreu and Ref bat LH'd, so we kinda need Rafaela in CF vs LHPs. In theory, we could not spend a penny or a prospect on a RHB in the OF. We could either add a SS (RHB) and play Rafaela in CF FT, or just swap Ref or Abreu for an equal OF'er who bats RH'd. I'd add a few more to your list of acceptable SP'er additions, and I'd shoot for 2 SP'ers aove the "depth level." I realize we won't do that, but with so many of our SP'er, already maxing out on career IP in a season, we need to manage their workloads, going forward. If we want to win in 2024, resting Houck, Crawford and Bello seems to go against that, but we may need to do just that to get to the playoffs with out 3 burnt out starters. We may want a 6 man rotation for the last 2 months: Houck Nate (Crochet) Crawford 1 from Eflin/Kikuchi/Anderson/Flaherty/Bassitt/Irvin/Sandoval/Fetner/ TWilliams/Fedde/Greene/Gore/Olson/Littell/JJones Pivetta Bello (Criswell as the 7th SP'er and "depth.)

It helps that JH allowed DD to sign Price to the biggest contract in Sox history by about 50% (until Devers.) JH also allowed him to sign Sale & Nate (over Betts.) JH also allowed the Porcello and Beckett extensions and Lackey signing. I do not think he allowed Bloom to go higher than what was offered to Eflin and Nate, and we missed out on both. Chances are, there might have been others like those two, but nothing gigantic.