moonslav59

How about a doily for Christmas?

It's too long a shot for me. I was done with Sale, too. I understood the Grissom-Sale trade. It back-fired, spectacularly, but I'm not basing future moves on the one in a hundred that worked out for ATL.

Cohen may not be in on the Burnes bidding, but there may be another GM out there that simply will not be outbid on him. I doubt that guy is Brez-JH, but I'm leaning towards really hoping he is. I know it's a big risk. I know he showed some signs of decline, already. The gap between Burnes and Flaherty/Manaea/Pivetta is too big. If we really want to go bold, as the Soto bidding indicated, we could go Burnes and Bregman and trade Abreu & Crawford for a decent RP'er and Catcher. C: _____, Wong (Narvaez) 1B & DH: Devers & Casas (Yoshida-Refsnyder) 2B: Campbell (DHam-Grissom, Rafaela) SS: Story (Romy, Rafaela, Mayer) 3B: Bregman (Devers, Romy, Campbell, Grissom) LF: Duran, Refsnyder CF: Rafaela (Duran) RF: Anthony (Refsnyder) SP: Burnes, Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito (Criswell, Fulmer, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins) RP: ______, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Guerrero, Wilson (Fulmer, Guerrero, Bernardino, Penrod, Shugart, Kelly, Weissert, Booser, Campbell, Mata.) This looks like a contender, to me. I realize the AAV his higher than Soto, but I think we can do this and still be under the tax line or barely over it. If we can save $4-6M by trading Yoshida, we can be under and have a more balanced and flexible 26 man roster.

I think Pablo Lopez might be the most likely trade asset, but I agree with others: we had money to give Soto, so keep our remaining top prospects and sign a couple arms- one from each group: Burnes, Flaherty (Manaea, Pivetta) Scott, Hoffman, Estevez (Yates) Not 2 in parenthesis. To me, this, along with adding a catcher, is the minimum we need to do. A big RHB would be nice, but I put that behind SP, RP and C. Getting Bregman to play 3B ONLY, would be a way to improve the pitching without signing one. He'd improve all our pitchers' outcomes by greatly improving our corner IF defense.

I'm done pinning hopes on guys with so few IP in the last 2-3 years, due to injury.

Crochet is our "stitch in time." "Darn," that was a pretty good one! I "laced" it!

He could end up a decent #2, but his ceiling is probably an okay #3.

On another thread, I compared the last 3 and 5 years of Buehler, Richards and Kluber. Tell me who was better and worse by those numbers. Yes, the age factor is big and in Buehler's favor, but the guy has barely pitched in 3 seasons. Sure, he could pull a Sale, and I would like him as Starter depth, but I do not think paying a $16-17M AAV is the way we need to go on filling a rotation slot for 2025. We need someone with better hopes on durability and IP. That's all I'm saying.

True. I thought he had surgery earlier than he did. He is expected back in July 2025, but we know how that always goes for the Sox.

True on both counts, but... Kluber had a 5 year stretch of over 200 IP and 5 top 10 CYAs, including 2 awards and had pitched 164 innings the year before with decent numbers (3.57 FIP.) Missing so much time from 2918-2022, the 5 years before signing with BOS meant his arm was not maxed out for his career. When he did pitch, he showed that he was aging rather well (111 ERA+ and 3.46 FIP in those previous 5 seasons with just under 500 IP.) That history and even recent history beats out Buehler's. Buehler is much younger than either of thse two, but has had just one 200 IP season (4 years ago- almost as long ao as Kluber's was) and one with 182 IP and 137 IP. His previous 5 seasons (385 IP) had more than 100 IP less than Kluber's 5. His 122 ERA+ is better than Kluber's during those 5, but his FIP of 3.85 is worse.) His last 3 seasons are scary: just 140 IP with a 4.74 FIP and 83 ERA+. Richards was never the horse Kluber was, and like Buehler, only had 1 season with 200 IP. (His next highest were 169, 145 and 137, which compares to Buehler.) He was 33 when he came to BOS in 2021. He was also 5 years removed from that 200 IP season. You are right, he went 5 seasons with no IP total more than 77 in that stretch. His 137 IP was more than could be expected. His numbers were decent, when he did pitch and almost identical to Buehler's numbers: 119 ERA+ and 3.86 FIP but with just under 200 IP in those 5 seasons.) While these three had some differences, most notably age, their previous 5 year sample sizes were pretty close. The previous 3 seasons were like this: ERA+/FIP in IP 93/3.66 in 245 IP Kluber 103/4.29 in 137 IP Richards 83/4.7 4in 138 IP Buehler Buehler was the worst of the three.

Good for these 4. I think this set up is good for younger players that do well. It should be expanded, next contract time.

With the Astros trading Tucker, they could really us a LH'd OF'er, and we have Abreu. The GM spoke, today and said they are not looking to trade Framber Valdez, but will listen. He's due about $18M, this year. I do not think we'll offer a trade for 1 year of Valdez, and working on a Crochet extension would likely rule out a Valdez extension, too. I don't see HOU looking to take Yoshida as part of a trade, but they do have some contracts, they'd like to unload. I'm not sure any fit Boston's needs, but some are pitchers: Ryan Pressly: $14M/1 (He is 34 and looks over-the-hill. I guess we could hope for a bounce back season at a position we need more than DH) Cristian Javier: $53M/3 owed (but just $12.8 on tax line) He turns 28, soon and used to be pretty good. He has a career 115 ERA+, but was out most of last year. Josh Hader $76M/4 ($19M x 4 and 19M on tax line.) He'd be a very nice closer, but is expensive. So is Yoshida, but why would HOU take Yoshida, unless we added pieces- more than Abreu for this guy. They also have Yordan Alvarez, who is best suited to DH. (Yoshida does not seem like a fit.) Lance McCullers $34M/2 would be a total salary dump ($17M AAV) Victor Caratini $6M/1 would be a nice back-up catcher, and the Astros have Yainer Diaz with 4 years of team control. Players the Sox would like, but are not on the block: Hunter Brown (4 yrs) Ronel Blanco (5 yrs) Arrighetti (5 yrs) Would HOU take Abreu & Yoshida for Javier? (Javier + Pressly or Caratini?) How about Abreu, Yoshida and Rafaela for Javier, Pressly & Caratini? Okay, no Yoshida: Abreu, Casas and Kelly or Fitts for Javier, Caratini & Hader plus cash? (How much cash?) These 3 contracts= $35.4M in '25 (all 3) $41M in '26 & '27 (Hader & Javier) and $19M in '28 (just Hader) The AAV would be $37.8 '25, $31.8 in '26 & '27 and $19 in '28. That's a lot of money, if Javier does not work out. We'd need HOU to pay something like $10M in '25 and $5M from "26-'28. That's $25M total. I don't know, if there is a fit, but I do think HOU would love Abreu and or Casas.

I think he might miss part of April. CBS says "ready for start of season" ESPN says Feb 1st,

It almost seems too good to be true. Something like Dobbins for Narvaez might be more reasonable. It would be nice, if he ends up better than Kelly.

Our advantage in extension talks is this: 1. Crochet is due about $3M for this winter's arb. Give him a hefty signing bonus and or start the extension in 2025 with significantly more than $3M. Let him start living the high life earlier than if he waits to free agency. (His arb, next year won't be a lot of money either.) 2. His lack of long term success and success as a SP'er is not a selling point. Sure, he can bet on himself and wait it out, but there has to be doubts. 3. His injury history is real and a concern, not just to us, but also to him and his agent. Signing an extension guarantees his family a sizeable legacy by taking the sure money. 4. Give him fair money for the 4-6 years beyond the two years of control. Don't short him, despite all of the above. Don't overpay, but don't pull a Lester. Let's say the fair rate is $27.5M/yr x 6. That's $165M + $3M arb +12M arb estimate comes to about $$180M/8. Offer $190M/8 and our AAV for taxes is just $23.75M. Even if we offer $200M/8, it's just $25M AAV.

I wanted Kelly, but not getting him is no big deal. Narvaez is a good defensive catcher, and we can find someone else, easily. Spend the money on pitching.

I think STL said no, but they may be rebuilding and he has 1 year left.

It's silly. Carson Kelly is not a significant target.

Are we really fretting over not getting Carson Kelly?

Soxprospects.com has the projected 26 man roster with 4 open slots for "acquisitions:" SP2 (Behind Crochet and ahead of Houck) Closer (with Hendriks and Chapman as the 8th inning guys) DH (with Yoshida starting the year on the IL) Back Up Catcher (with Narvaez starting the year in AAA) They have Campbell breaking camp as the starting 2Bman with DHam , Ref and Romy on the bench. Grissom, Mayer and Anthony are the notables placed in AAA. I think we'll get by without adding a DH and may go with Narvaez as the #2 catcher, but I hope we get a solid #1 or #2 SP'er and quality RP'er. Burnes and Estevez? Flaherty and Hoffman? Manaea and Scott? Trade for Casillo or Pablo Lopez or Jh Duran or Helsley?

I guess this Narvaez is the real deal on defense. After listening to the soxprospects.com podcast, I'm kind of excited. He's ML ready, cheap and has many years of team control. He hit 21 HRs in 627 ABs in AAA, so maybe we get some plus on O. (.247 BA but .371 OBP, but 196 Ks in 762 PAs is a bit scary.)

soxprospects.com was really talking up Narvaez on their podcast. They spoke of how Elmer Rodriguez was, at best, a RP'er who just "did not have the look" of a major leaguer." (Too skinny.) They think Narvaez might be top 30 to 35 on the next rankings. (Remember, 5 top 30 are gone.)

One thing that might get Crochett to sign an extension would be to give him more money on the front end than his arbs would get him- maybe even a big signing bonus. Starting it now would lower the overall AAV, which might help us down the line, but if the plan is to get close to the line, this year, maybe we want to wait to sign the extension, like we did with AGon, after that trade.

I heard the rumors of Casas to SEA are false. I also heard they are seeking a RHB 1Bman. Maybe some sort of 3 way deal can be worked out, but if it's for a SEA pitcher, it will be Castillo- not Miller or Woo. Time to move on to other names.

I never said we'd extend him at under $20M AAV. I'm putting the odds over 50-50 that we extend him mid April- probably earlier. We don't trade that package for 4 years. We never have.