moonslav59

Out of the top 60 MLB players by fWAR, one can say each team should have 2 players (2 x 30 teams=60 or 2 per team.) We have 3 players in the top 40! There is a big drop off after them, however: 24 Duran 1.9 29 Abreu 1.7 40 Devers 1.4 Next is #85 O'Neill

Very interesting, and here we thought our 7-9 slots batting .578 was as bad as it can get. According to modern line-up metrics, the 5 slot is worth more than the 3 slot, and the 5 slot (.606) for us has been worse than 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6 and almost as bad as the 7 slot at .600. 4 slot: .861 (mostly Devers, Abreu & Casas) 6 slot is more spread out, with Dominic having the most PAs (52 and a .603 OPS up 6th) Surprisingly, Yoshi hi 1.109 in the 6 slot and has the second most PAs (28), there. .881 by Copper in 21 PAs. (Wong, O'Neill, Romy, Casas & Abreu have been monsters in the 6 slot, but with few PAs.)

Not over this, I hope. Kavadas has a very high chance of not doing well. Personally, I think Smith's is equally high, if not higher, but I do think our scouts and guys watching Kavadas closely, know more than I do. It's too early to talk of canning Brez, Bailey and the "whole crew." Bailey could probably win the governorship in MA, if an election was held, today. Brez seems to have made a difference, already. He added arms to the farm and the 40. He's got us at .500, when many expected worse. He was forced to cut a budget than many felt needed an increase to compete in 2024. The CB Tax budget was $226M, last year according to cots, and is at $208M, now. That cut of $18M had to come from somewhere, especially when you consider his failed attempt at bring some stability and durability to the rotation by spending $19.3M x 2 on Gio. The Devers extension kicked in, too, adding $12M to the CBT line. While O'Neill's addition about cancelled out the savings from the Dugo trade, I think Brez did pretty good, looking past the swing and miss with Gio (and Grissom/I Campbell, so far). O'Neill Slaten Weissert Criswell Booser Fitts Sandlin I think Brez, Bailey & Cora look like keepers, to me.

Many disliked the deal, at the time, so hindsight is not really a factor for some. However, I don't recall a single poster expressing glee at the fact that Sale ended the 2023 season and pitching okay to decently. Nobody was talking about extending him or even taking the $20M 2025 option. Now that he's doing very well, and Grissom is sucking, it sure makes the deal look worse, if not outright bad. I do think poster like Bell and others realize why we made the trade, and hoping against hope for Sale to return was wearing thin on Sox brass and many fans. He was no sure bet for 2024, and it didn't look like 2024 was the main focus, this winter, anyway. The addition of Grissom was about 5 years, not just 2024. The signing of Gio, at that money, does counter that idea, but I don't think a single baseball fan in America would have bet on Sale starting more games in 2024 or "24+'25 than Gio. IMO, that was the reason for signing Gio. The Sale trade was not the only one about money: so was the Dugo and Urias trades. The O'Neill trade added salary, but with so few FAs signed, he was hardly a dent in a budget that was actually cut from 2023. It's hard to justify the money aspect of the Sale trade, when we signed Gio, only to watch him miss the season, but if Gio was just 5-4 with a 4.00 ERA, and Grissom was hitting .690, this discussion would not be so heated. I don't think the fact that Gio and Grissom have given us less than nothing, while Sale has pitched like vintage Sale for 1/3 a season is enough to give the trade a final grade, there is certainly enough to go on to speak out against it. I may be in a minority, but I think Grissom will end up being a plus for us. He should be plus on O and near average on D, hopefully sooner rather than later. (BTW, just average or slightly below average on D is better than we've seen in years, at 2B.) I wish the best for Sale. I loved seeing him in a Sox uni. I loved the tarde for him, since day one. I was shocked we got him and pronounced, "We got freakin' Sale1" It's sad it ended like this, for us. It would have been nice to see him quiet some critics and bring us some wins, even if this is to be a "lost season." He is a true professional. We sure could have used him, this year. All this being said, I still think the trade made sense. It saved JH the money he wanted- like it or not. It gave us a very good chance at solving the 2B issue this team has had for 3-4 years, and it took away the uncertainty of another pitcher known for being close friends with the IL, something this team has been all about since 2018. The trade has blown up, so far, but there is a long way to go.

It does look good.

Kavadas loses all platoon benefits, when Casas returns. (Cooper matches up better as the back-up 1Bman. To me, the time for Kavadas is now or maybe never. It's just my opinion, and I am not going to say Brez is wrong not to do it. He's knows more than I do. The ones closest to Kavadas know best.

Suddenly, a guy is "ready." I trust Brez, too, but he may be close to making the call. Maybe not.

Yup. These types of signings are gambles but less costly than gambles on Story, Yoshida or adding all the one year signings up.

Once a young player proves he can hit, the price goes way up. That is a valid reason, right?

Im not saying I’m happy with the amounts, but it is way to early to know. Your opinion is valid, especially on the dollar amounts, but I like locking up promising young players, knowing some will not work out. I wish we had locked up Casas, Houck and Crawford early, but there were doubts about them, too.

Will he? Why not try to win in the next 3 or more weeks, ?

fWAR -0.2 Cooper -0.4 Smith

In the context of bringing up Kavadas, replacing the LHB Smith makes more sense. Plus she sucks on D. The debate on Cooper is vs Dalbec, and choosing Cooper is a valid choice.

Well stated.

After less than 2 months on Rafaela? lol! Bello is doing worse than I hoped for in his 8 GS sample size. Whoop-Dee- freaking- do

Better than the far and away worst D in the league does not make it fun. I wouldn't say more fun, either. I'd say "less painful."

Can you stop with the 50-60 PA talk? How about his last 1308 PAs? .660 OPS and 84 OPS+ While this is better than Dalbec's last 2 season's, Dalbec's last 1010 (career) PAs is at .723 and 92 OPS+. (I'm not advocating for Dalbec over Smith or Cooper. I'd like to see Kavadas replace Smith.)

...and again, this is not just a one month slump for Smith. I don't get the faith placed in Smith. He hasn't been good since his 199 PA season of 2020. Yes, 2020, for God's sake! .667 in '21 (83 OPS+) Even Dalbec was way, way, way better that year .560 in '22 (62 OPS+) Dalbec was at .652 and 80 OPS+ .692 in '23 (94 OPS+) was an improvement but still really bad for a 1Bman. .556 in '24 (57 OPS+) He sucks on D. He is below replacement value, yet we worry about not being able to replace him, if Kavadas sucks, too? LOL

Worse than Smith cannot make a significant difference, unless he goes 1 for 40. You think there are no more Smith's out there? Hell, Smith himself will likely be available, again in a month or two, assuming Casas is not back by then.

Yes. I also likes Imanga and Seth Lugo more than Gio and others. I also thought a short deal for Sonny Gray made sense. I was not high on Stroman, and I felt he was like Gio, but he'd have been a better pick, in hindsight.

Neither Cooper or Smith have done much for 2-3 years. This not about one bad month with the Sox. They have both sucked for about as long as Dalbec or even longer. Their declines began 3-4 years ago. I'm fine with keeping Dalbec in AAA, or even DFA'ing him, if we need a slot on the 40, but I think Kavadas should get a chance to at least platoon with Copper at 1B. Can we please stop DH'ing Cooper and Smith? I'd rather see DHam, Wong/McGuire or Romy DH, as yucky as that sounds.

The long and sustained success by the Astros followed a similar path. The Sox never hit the rock bottom those two teams did, so we did not get the #1-#3 picks, year after year, like they did. Our farm is not as good as theirs was, which is understandable. Some wise picks by DD & Bloom and a few losing seasons have helped build up the farm and the young/younger core of the 26 man roster, but it does not seem to be enough, even if a lot goes right with the kids. We will almost certainly need some big spending or a massive change in luck or whatever you want to call it on choosing who we spend moderately on. Had Sale gotten hurt, again and Gio returned to 90% of his form or Grissom was at a .780 OPS, which all seemed possible in March, the talk would be much different, right now. We've made some very bad choices, of which number one was not keeping Betts. It seems like that choice jinxed us. You also get what you pay for and trying to strike gold with $10M/1 deals for SP'ers is asking for trouble. The Story and Yoshida signings hurt, badly, and not just because of their failure to produce. The budget space they ate up, prevented gains in other areas. Gio is like Kluber + Richards. It's hard to blame Brez for choosing Gio over someone like maybe Stroman. He got one signing wrong, but it was his biggest signing. His next biggest deal was Sale & $$$ for Grissom. That is not looking good, so far. Like Bloom, his lesser deals seem to be working better. I hope his results don't mirror Bloom's.

This makes sense. I'm not sure about the Bello/Rafaela comment, but time will tell. We bet on their future, not just a couple months.

The 2015 Royals were not "bottom 5," but they spent about half as much as #2 NYY and significantly less than half of the #1 LAD. The spent $25M more than the top of the bottom 5 teams and almost $60M less than the bottom of the top 5 spenders. Nobody is saying money doesn't matter. Spending does improve the odds, most seasons. The vast majority of playoff teams are top 10-15 spenders, over the years. How a team spends seems to be more important than how much, and a healthy mix of low-cost, home-grown players on the team is just about as essential as spending wisely.

...and once in it's a crapshoot, right?