moonslav59

While it's true, not many AA players are selected Rule 5, Drohan did start off in AA in 2023. Thad Ward was drafted first in 2022. He started out in A-, went to A+ and spend teh rest of '22 in AA. He never played for Woo. I don't think it is worth the risk of losing Jh Garcia over some of the names I mentioned.

Exactly. None of us know. I, for one, am not counting on it. I'll believe it, if and when I see it. I will say JH has a long history of splurging, then going tight, rinse and repeat. His increase from 2020 to 2022 was one of his biggest in his 2 decades, in Boston. Yes, we can look at the time from 2018 to today as one long and deep cut, but it has not been steady. The Story and Yoshida signings may not match Price's deal, but Story's matches the Sale extension, pretty closely, and Yoshida comes close to the Bogey 3 year opt-out deal. The Devers extensions blows all other signings out of the water. I'm not sugar coating anything. I'm pissed, too. The Story and Yoshida signings did not nearly make up for the guys we lost. This has been one long cluster, but there is no evidence to say JH will not spend again. Hell, the Devers extension kicked in just this year, yet people act like he hasn't gone large and long since Price, Sale, Nate, Bogey and JD. I have no idea what he will do. I hope he spends big, soon, but I'm not holding my breath. I'll be surprised, if he does, this winter. I'll be mildly surprised if he does for 2026 or 2027. I won't be surprised, if he cuts, this year.

Change the subject- fine. I'm not down on Bogey. I wish we had kept him. I asked a question, "Would Sox Nation be happy with the last 2 years of Bogey had we signed him for $180M/6 or $220M/8?" I guess, I'll put you down as a firm YES. BTW, my views on Bogey have barely changed. I always wanted him on our team. I thought his defense was pretty bad, his offense was great and he was a clear net plus. At his age, I worried about decline and felt a change of position was needed. (I felt that when we signed Story, too.) I'll always have very fond memories of his offense.

In all fairness, when you look at the 40 man roster for 2020, that ended up missing Sale and ERod for the full season, you can see why building the 40 man roster depth (bottom up) over signing big ticket items, only to have no supporting cast. My issue has been that once we got the 40 man roster depth to an acceptable level (maybe by 2021 or 2022,) we went from building the bottom to building the middle with one and done players, sprinkled with a few 2 years guys like Kike, Sawamura, Diekman, and wait for it,,, the big splash Gio. (Actually Jansen & martin were good signings, but that came in 2023. Take a look at some of the names on the 2020 opening day roster, and tell me building the bottom should not have been the priority: Lucroy, Plawecki, Chavis, Arauz, Lin Weber, Hall, Covey, Brice, Osich, Brewer, P Valdez, Hembree, Walden & Brasier That's 15 from the 40. The mediocre guys were: Moreland, Pillar, Martin Perez, Springs, Workman and some thought Barnes, too. Basically the whole pen and all the rotation, except Nate were scubs or mediocre. By 2021, Perez went from our 2nd SP'er to our #5, although Richards pitched worse. Pivetta and Houck also were added. We added Ottavino, Whitlock and Schreiber to the pen. We went from 1 decent pitcher to 6 or 7, not counting Sale & ERod, who started 2021 on the IL. We did have Cordero and Dalbec in the starting 9, but had Arroto on the bench, who beat Arauz with a club. I count 6 scrubs and maybe 4-5 mediocres on this opening day 40- a big jump from 2020, and the results showed. Then, I think JH got too full of himself, and believed his own sham- thinking we can win without spending, and we've stayed pretty even since 2022. Even at mediocrity. I will say the 2022 season started out with a decent looking rotation, on paper: Nate, Houck, Pivetta, Wacha and Hill. The pen had Whitlock, Strahm and Barnes, but precious little more. The JBJ trade back-fired and Kike nosedived.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, on my part, and I'll say again that I do NOT expect big spending from JH, but it is possible that the kids start to shine brightly, and we look a piece or two away from a ring, and JH decides to splurge, once again. I doubt it is this winter, but just spending the same as last year is a pretty big chunk of AAV.

Key words, "all that much." Pablito did have post season success in 2012 and 2014, but he also had a .794 OPS with SFG, during the regular season, His 123 OPS+ was six better than Bogey's 117 w the Sox. All the warning signs were there, however: 130 OPS+ first 1869 PAs w SFG 116 OPS+ last 1664 w SFG (still near Bogey's career OPS+ w BOS)

I'm not sure player's stock goes up all that much over some post season success. He does fit the Sox profile for being a pitcher who has had great success but has missed so much time with injuries.

I don't doubt the budget goes down, again, but you seem so sure it will. At least you won't be let down. (I'm not expecting an increase, but I do think it may stay near the same, which would actually give Brez a pretty hefty winter spending budget.

Happy Halloween! Booooo Yankees!

CWS pay Moncada $5M option rather than $25M option. Twins decline Margot's $12M option and pay $2M buyout. ATL traded for another pitcher: Jorge Soler (owed $26M/2) for Griffin Canning (1 arb year left.) Gibson and Lynn's options declined.

I'm so sick of waiting for pitchers who had some kind of glory in the past to get healthy. Then the one we get rid of, wins the Cy Young.

I loved the Dugo trade, and I'm hopeful Fitts fills a role we need: an innings eating decent SP'er.

I do not think we have a set-in-stone number of pitching slots on the 40. I also think having guys on the 40 that won't sniff the bigs in 2025, like Wikelman might be as expendable or more than Jh Garica. Also, I'd take Jh Garcia over Gasper, Sogard and maybe even E Valdez, who we could probably trade for a single A prospect.

A Soto trade would remind me of the Manny signing. It would be about as bold as we can be. I'd consider it as more of a blockbuster move than the Price signing and the Sale trade. I think it would go a long way at repairing the hurt feelings from losing Betts, but nothing more than a ring would really help heal that open wound.

The left-handed tilt of the Sox 13 everyday players might be greatly changed by adding Campbell and a good splits in the minors, Anthony, plus the return of Story. Here are the worst splits vs LHPs in 2024 with 50+ PAs: .532 DHam (another guy, I've mentioned as trade bait, since we can add Campbell and or Grissom to the 26.) .532 Abreu (Ref platoon in '25?) .565 Yoshida (Ref platoon in '25?) .669 career begs for a platoon as a DH. .603 Rafaela (revers splits doesn't help) .665 Duran (gotta hope he improves.) .686 Devers (.739 career- not a concern) .748 Casas (.772 career- not a concern) Grissom is .727 career vs LHPs, so maybe a DHam-Grissom 2B platoon could work well.

Then, you woke up.

117 may have been his career BOS OPS, but as you pointed out on another thread, that includes his first years, as he struggled to adjust at a young age. I do not think those who were most upset at losing Bogey expected a 117 OPS+, year one, and knowing his SS D was not great, to be kind. His OPS+ since the 2017 year you mentioned: 135, 139, 128, 129 and 131 (2018-2022 w BOS.) Even if he bounces back to near 117 at age 32 and beyond, I still think that falls short of what the biggest Bogey fans envisioned. I could easily see him having an OPS+ at or below 117 for the remainder of his time with SD, combined.

I think some scrub team will take Garcia, so I'd protect him. While I like our roster depth, I think, even if we add 3-4 free agents, Jh garcia will still be better than out #39 or 40 on the roster. I know it sucks bruning 40 man roster slots on guys with no hopes of playing in the bigs, next year, but this guy is too good to risk losing, IMO. I'd rather trade or cut Wikelman. My guess is Mata, Gasper and Murphy will already be gone by opening day, but I'd also rather have Jh Garcia over Shugart, Horn, Sogard and maybe Penrod & Booser, too. We should have the roster space for Jh Garcia and Dobbins.

I've always liked Pivetta, but I think we can get better on a $20M AAV. The issue is years. I doubt JH is ready to give $20M x 4+ years, so maybe Pivetta is the best we can get for $20M/1. Hell, Gio got nearly that for 2 years.

I've been mentioning his name for months, as a trade candidate. His splits are awful, and we have Anthony as ML ready. One can argue Rafaela should be the odd man out, and his splits are pretty even, so he is no LHP killer, but I think Abreu brings back a better pitcher, and Rafaela's CF defense may be second to none. The fact that Duran plays excellent CF defense, and Anthony might, too, may make the point moot. I'd be happy with... LF: Abreu- Ref platoon CF: Duran RF: Anthony

Per MLB.com Five of Boston’s Top 30 Prospects must be protected to avoid inclusion in the Rule 5 Draft: OF Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 12), OF Allan Castro (No. 19), RHP Hunter Dobbins (No. 21), RHP Yordanny Monegro (No. 25) and 3B/1B Blaze Jordan (No. 26). The deadline for clubs to add players to their 40-man roster and protect them from the Rule 5 Draft is Nov. 19 at 6 p.m. ET.

I hate the Dodgers, but it was nice seeing the Yanks lose, and lose this way.

I know a lot of people think we could have gotten Bogey to sign for $160M/6, long ago. I'm not so sure, but for argument's sake, let's say we got him to sign for $180M/6 or $220M/8, how would Sox Nation be talking about that extension, right now, assuming he put up the same numbers as he did with the Padres? .747 OPS (106 OPS+ vs 117 with BOS and 133 from '18-'22) per 650: .276 17 60 These are Yoshi-like numbers. All the talk of how we messed up the Bogey extension MAY HAVE BEEN premature. (Emphasis on "MAY.")

Good point, and that was Bloom not Brez that chose to spend on the pen, and not the rotation. Bloom also likely chose to spend on Story and Yoshida over the rotation, but maybe JH directed him not to spend large and long on any SP'ers, except Bello, which was more long than large, anyway.

I don't think we choose to spend really big on a SP'er like Burnes or Fried. Neither seems to jump out at "the guy," to me, and even if JH & Co really like one, they always set a price that gets beat by someone else, anyway. If there is one thing these guys have consistently done, they never go above the price they set as reasonable. To me, the best bet for getting a #1 or #2, or whatever you want to call it, is by trade, but I'm doubtful we give up on the long term plan and farm building, this year. IMO, getting a young SP'er with 3-4 years of control is not like trading away the future to get. 4 years is about as much time as a prospect can give us, anyway. Giving up 3 prospects with 5-6 years of control is taking a big chunk out of the future promise, but it is just "promise." I've spoke of bottlenecks and duplicated values, a lot, and I realize much of this is based on the belief that most of our top prospects are going to pan out. It's just speculation, and we can see many examples of underachieving from our top farm prospects, in the past: the prospects DD traded jump to mind, but also guys like Lars Anderson, Casey Kelly, Michael Bowden, Kalish & Middy, Swihart and Cecchini, Owens and Groome. However, our everyday player roster is loaded with good to decent players or promising to very promising players, along with guys like EValdez, Gasper, Sogard, Hickey and others that still hold some remote hopes of being helpful. All these guys have 3 or more years of control: C: Wong 4, Teel 5+, Jo. Garcia 5+ (Brannon) 1B: Casas 4, Romy 4 (Ju Gonzalez) 2B: Campbell 5+, Grissom 5, DHam 5, Cespedes 5+ (Nunez) SS: Story 3-4, Mayer 5+, Arias & Romero 5+ (Cason) 3B: Devers 9, Meidroth 5+ (Nunez) LF: Abreu 4, Jh Garcia 5+, Ehrhard 5+ (Castro, Asencio) CF: Duran 4, Rafaela 7, Bleis 5+ (Fermin) RF: Anthony 5+, Montgomery 5+ (Yuten) DH: Yoshida 3, %+: B Gonzalez , Jordan, W Turner Our pitchers don't look all that great, but many of our best have 3+ Years, too: (Whitlock has 2.) 3: Houck 4: Crawford, Wink, Kelly 5+ Bello, Slaten, Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Guerrero, Weissert, Sandlin, Campbell & more