moonslav59

Good thing players don't make the trades.

Agreed, but not many of us were clamouring for those a couple years or more ago.

With so many teams in the playoff hunt, many need dependable SP'ers, and would jump at a SP'er with a 4.05 ERA since 2013 (110 ERA+) 4.09 FIP 1.13 WHIP Take a look at some rotations of contending teams. I'm not saying he'd net us a top 5 or 10 prospect, but I think he would bring back more than some seem to think he will. I do agree that Martin is a better pitcher, but he has some concerns, and not just about age decline, and he is not a closer. Pivetta can easily triple the IP Martin will et over the last 2 months of 2024. That has real value.

I'm not sure how many teams have a SP with an ERA+ of 103 (Pivetta's with the Sox) and a 4.24 FIP as their 4-5 SP'er. For many teams, these numbers beat their #3 SP'er. From 2023-2024 (27 GS and 22 RP games,) he has an ERA+ of 110 and an FIP of 4.09 (ERA 4.04.) That is worth something to many teams in contention and short a SP'er or two. From July 8 to today, there are 76 pitchers with 130+ IP. Here is where Nick ranks: 5th in K-BB% at 25.2% (just below Sale by 0.1%) 9th in xFIP at 3.13 (one of your favorite stats) 22nd in ERA- at 83 (just ahead of Gallen and Crawford) 26th in ERA at 3.63 31st in FIP at 3.78 (same as Crawford) 39th in fWAR at 2.2 My point was also about having a good 5-6 next starts to bring back his value, and not about his last few starts since returning from the IL.

I totally agree. If Cora leaves over money, I'm jumping on the anti-JH bandwagon.

This isn't about what others have gotten: your point was that if he hits .750, it would be an overpay. It would not, IMO. While the amount of errors he has made is frightening, the amount of plays he has made that maybe nobody or precious few would even make in their dreams numbers was more than 9. He's still listed as being a +4 OAA in CF. I tend to think he will get a grip on the errors, over time, and maybe playing less SS would help him improve in CF, but I guess we will have to agree to disagree on CR.

Yes, he'd be a good platoon guy with Valdez and or DHam. I agreed and still do.

Try re-reading my post. I said WE would eat 75-85%, meaning the other team 15-25%. If they get wink, they'd pay 25-35%. How is that 50% more?

.750 with his D, an overpay? I strongly disagree, especially as we know prices are going up and up. I'd say .700-.725 is worth it. His ability to play CF and SS well is of great value.

It won't be easy replacing Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill's production at the same cost they were in 2024, but it should not take a lot more money to do so. Of course, with the bad luck/skills our GMs have had on spending, it's no sure bet we can spend double those 4 cost and even break even. One of the best parts about our upcoming budget is the lack of major arb raises in 2025. Many of our best players are still pre-arb, thanks to the significant farm infusion over the past 3 years (thanks DD and Bloom.) Nothing is for certain on these kids continuing to do well or the expected infusion of more top prospects onto the 26 and 40, but it sure looks better than it did in 2020, or even last year. IMO, JH is going to have to spend, and likely large and long on one or two players in the next 1-2 years, if we are going to have a real chance at being a top 3-4 team, again. If not, we will have to count on Brez being a genius to get us over the hump. We can't look at our roster and future roster and assume 100% health and continued growth for a big chunk of our players. It seems natural to expect some step backs, next year from some of these kids doing very well, this year. To me, our everyday players look set. We have depth at just about every position, except 1B. In some cases, counting top prospects in the mix, we go 3-4 deep. I do not think we can assume our pitching staff can keep this up without some major additions, and there don't seem to be a lot of top pitching prospects banging on the 26 man door. (Perales is out for over a year, and maybe Fitts is our best hope.) Losing Pivetta, Jansen and Martin will hurt. I'm not sure Pivetta has gotten the credit he deserves for being the most reliable and durable pitchers this team has had since we traded for him in 2020. He has not been great, and even was not very good for some stretches, but he took the ball every 5 days and gave the team a chance to win in a big chunk of his starts. While the team has mostly sucked, since Pivetta joined, the teams W-L record is 47-45 in his starts.

He's been at a .722 clip, the last 3 years, and his power dropped in these years, too. I'm not sure that is what we need, but he does kill lefties, so maybe he fits the need. A platoon with Valdez or DHam might work well. I'm thinking, if we are buyers, we'd look for SP'er depth, so we don't need any more pen games. With Campbell, Wink and Hendriks (Aug 1st?) around, maybe we don't look to add a pen arm. A lot can happen between now and then, and our needs could change, but as of now, I'd say they are: 1. SP (a solid #3 type or better would be ideal, but perhaps too costly for Brez to get) 2. RHB who plays 2B or SS 3. SP depth Trading a LHB OF for a RHB might be a possibility, but nobody wants to see Abreu or Duran dealt away.

Well, the Rafaela extension is looking better, now, than it was a month ago. Bello needs to have a summer like 2023 to bring up the talk on him.

I'm thinking it will take us eating 75-85% of the contract for there to be a taker. Now, maybe we include Winckowski and get a team to pay 25-35%.

The Yanks just picked up JD Davis. Ld-dee-freakin-dah!

He still gets maybe 5-6 more starts before the deadline. If he does well in those starts, he gets more than O'Neill and probably Martin will get. Jansen looks to be the big prize, right now, but more and more, it looks like we won't be sellers, anyway.

We are just about halfway through the minor league season. Despite some setbacks to guys like Perales, Johanfran Garcia and others due to injury and a few prospects that dropped off the top rankings lists, like Drohan, Wikelman, Mata and others, I do not think I'm being a "homer" by saying our farm is looking as strong as it has in many, many years. Our top 3 prospects are highly ranked by almost every ranking site around. I do not think it's a wearing rose-colored glasses type of situation, here. These three look for real. Of course, many "for real" prospects end up not impressing, and it might be likely one or maybe even two of these three that don't reach expectations, but all three look legit, and all three will likely be in the bigs within a year or maybe 1.5 seasons. The next group of three prospects, Perales, Bleis and Cespedes are farther away and carry greater risk than the big three, but there is a ton of potential in these guys. Perales was looking really good, before the major injury. He has a ways to go to come back, but the promise is still there. Bleis and Cespedes are multi-tolled players who have gotten more notice, especially Cespedes. I'm super high on Cespedes, and I like the odds on 1 or 2 of these guys becoming pretty special. The next 3, Fitts, Zanetello and Campbell, to me, are super promising. Maybe I'm being a homer, here- maybe not. Campbell is a shooting star, right now, but the other two are hopeful, too. I'm thinking these three might have the same chances of success as the second group of 3. Together, the top 3 groups of 3 might very well might produce 5-6 very productive ML players. Is thinking 5 of 9 will being a homer? To me, there is a big drop off after 9-10, but there is hope in numbers. Sandlin, E R-C, Monegro, Dobbins, Guerrero, Early and others might produce a couple keepers for the staff. I'm not that high on Yorke, Castro, Paulino as some others, but maybe I'm higher on Meidroth, Lugo and the Garcia brothers than some are. In short, I think we have a lot to be optimistic about on the farm, but on top of this, many of the farm infusions will be joining the bigs within the window of recent grads and extended players still being under team control for so many more seasons. We went through a pretty long stretch with no major impactful players being called up from our farm. I've noted the time period between Devers in 2017 to Houck, who graduated in late '21 and Duran in '22 as being particularly empty of help, but in reality, the true impact of Houck and Duran is just now being realized. That was about a 7-8 year timeframe. I don't mean to minimize the recent impact of graduated prospects: it goes beyond just Houck & Duran. We have Crawford, Bello, Wong, Casas, Rafaela, Whitlock, Abreu, Valdez, Slaten, and a few others like Wink, Kelly, Bernardino, DHam and Booser, too. Combine the two large groups together and add Devers, and maybe we can reach the promise land sooner than many think we will.

Duran has really been an incredible story and turnaround in almost every aspect of the game. You'd have to try hard to not become a big fan of his. That great catch he made was not a fluke. He has remade himself into an excellent defender in an amazingly short timespan. I don't remember a young player who tweaked and readjusted his batting approach, stance and attitude more than Duran. Add the baserunning maturity and aggressiveness and we have one of baseball's best all around players in less than 2 full seasons. He's not a young kid, anymore. He turns 28, soon, which is considered prime. We are so blessed to have him for 4 arb years (through 2028.)

Sox OPS by Month .739 MAR/APR (8th) .683 MAY (19th) .823 JUN (5th) So far

The offense has come a long way, since the first few weeks of 2024. We are now top 7 in OBP, SLG. We are first in the AL in SBs. You'd think with all this we'd be better than 10th in runs scored, but we are pretty close to top 7 (just 5 runs away.) The offense is certainly trending upwards, and I guess it's safe to project a better second half of hitting, since Casas returns and Abreu just returned. Replacing Arroyo, Reyes, Valdez I and DHam I, plus Grissom and Short at MI with DHam II, Valdez II and Romy has done wonders, not to mention some time from Rafaela there, too. Upticks from the OF/DH has been the main driving factor in the offensive gains. When you think of how bad our OF has looked in some recent seasons, it's a big turnaround.

Some of these bargain basement additions from the past have started to pay off for us. Some of this year's, too. On Kelly, before tonight, he had the best OPS Against on the team at .450. Only Jansen (.499) and Houck (.528) are even close. What might be surprising to some is that he has more PAs Against (batters faced) than Jansen and Martin and almost as much as Booser and Bernardino. While the 13 BBs is concerning, the .125 BA Against makes up for it. He's only let up 3 XBHs in 88 ABs.

The Yoshida Issue may end up solving itself, if he does nothing over the next 1-3 weeks. It's hard to imagine the leash being longer than that, if he keeps doing little or nothing. It would be one thing, if he was replacing players hitting in the 5 or 6 hundreds, but he's not, and I'm not just talking "hot hand," here. Some of these guys are hitting better than he is and better than his career .754 for this full season. Of course, we have to realize some of the guys hitting better than him may be on unsustainable paths, and can come crashing down to earth, at any moment. If they do, even Yoshida at .600 to .650 might be an upgrade, but it's hard to project this to happen, right now. Valdez, DHam and Romy don't seem to be letting up. Ref and O'Neill are both hitting like they deserve a FT slot in the order. Abreu is back off the IL and absolutely kills RHPs. If Yoshida could play 1B, we could play him there, until Casas returns, but he doesn't. Our OF is already squeezed with the Abreu return and Ref going nutty, again. Moving Rafaela to SS helps a bit, and squeezing Vadlez/DHam/Romy looks to be better than squeezing Duran/O'Neill/Abreu/Refsnyder. It looks like DH is the only place for him, but it had been a place to get Ref, O'Neill, Valdez and others some more playing time, and they have been rocking the joint. To me, when healthy, these guys need to play almost exclusively FT: Devers 3B Wong C (as much as we can without burning out his legs) Casas 1B Duran LF (CF when Rafaela plays SS) Rafaela CF/SS O'Neill LF/RF/DH Refsnyder DH/LF/CF That's seven slots taken. Abreu should start vs all RHPs, and Valdez & DHam have done well enough to keep playing vs RHPs, too, but Yoshida will get the look over them, if possible. Since Yoshida does not play 2B, he won't beat them out, there. Sadly, it will come down to benching an OF'er vs RHPs, so Yoshida can DH. Oddly, Yoshida has a better situation to DH vs LHPs, due to the unbalanced nature of our batters, especially the OF. Since Abreu sucks vs LHPs, he's an easy platoon choice. Valdez has not earned the right to start vs LHPs, either, so DHam and Romy can play 2B or 2B & SS, as Rafaela plays CF (or SS.) We could play Rafaela at SS, Duran in CF, Refsnyder in LF and O'Neill in RF with Yoshida at DH. It's too early for me to say we should DFA him, if nobody takes him off our hands at 10-20% of his cost, or even 5%. He could still find a groove and redeem himself, but at whose expense?

We passed KCR, today and are in the WC3 slot by o.5 games (on KC.) We have the 10th best record in MLB. (-1 from #9 MN and -2 from #8 SEA. -2.5 from ATL and -3 from MIL#6. That being said, we are also just 4.5 games from the bottom 10 in MLB.

Of course. I see it more as the pace we have been playing at and not as projecting the exact same thing to happen over the second half of the season. Not long ago, we looked like we were destined to be a .500 team. At times, it looked like getting to .500 at the 162 game mark would be very difficult. Yes, one game at a time. We have a lot of tough series ahead of us, many against teams looking to make the playoffs, at our expense. A lot can happen, but this has been fun, so far.

Our pace is 87 wins, right now, and we are looking at this, right after our best stretch of the year. It still counts, of course, and there is no reason to think we can't keep up a .538 win %. To get to 92 wins on the year, we'd have to go 50-34 or almost a 60% win%. While that does not seem impossible, that is a pretty significant step up from what we have done, so far. A 6-7% improvement is a lot in MLB. It's not impossible, for sure. As of now, we are the 3rd WC team, 1/2 game ahead of KCR and 4.5 ahead of the streaking Astros, who we have yet to face- twice. Current Pace to win: 103 BAL (#1 WC) 88 MIN (#2 WC) 87 BOS (#3) 86 KCR (outside looking in by 1 game) Maybe 87-89 wins is all a team needs to grab the last slot. Look for HOU to make a strong run. (I wish we played them, earlier in the season.) As of now, we rank as such in the AL: 5th in Runs Scored (4 behind MN and 1 ahead of KCR) 4th in OPS (.002 behind HOU and .003 ahead of MN) 2nd in OBP/ 5th in SLG 1st in SBs & Triples (2nd in 2Bs) 5th in ERA (0.07 from BAL and 0.11 from LAD/ +0.02 on CLE) 5th in WHIP (0.01 from BAL and 0.01 up on CLE & 0.02 on NYY) 7th in ERs Allowed but 21st in Runs Allowed thanks to crappy D. 24th in Outs Above Replacement (13th in DRS & 17th in UZR/150) I'd put our D in the bottom 10, but perhaps it belongs between 15-20th. Usually, a top 5 Offense and top 5 Pitching staff is enough to make a team a cinch to make the playoffs, and even a bottom 10 Defense can change that, but we are still clearly on the bubble. If we keep playing like this, we are in. It's hard to know, if we will do that. I'm hopeful. I'm optimistic. I'm also concerned we may not. The holes we had in April and May, are still there. Our rotation is not as strong as it was over the first 5-6 weeks. Our bats go hot and cold on a dime. Our poor D still shows up, from time to time, although less often, of late. Our pen has been a strength, but now we have had a few pen games that really tax the staff. We are looking at Criswell returning. Wink and Campbell have looked good in AAA, recently, and Hendriks is kin of a wild card for the last 2 months of the season. Maybe Fitts earns a shot. Maybe Crawford, Pivetta and or Crawford bounce back, a bit. Maybe Bello pitches like he did, last June, July and August. We still have some big ifs, but there is more to be optimistic about than pessimistic, right now.

While he is 5th in fWAR among OF'ers, there is also this: He was 0.1 behind Tucker, before today. He may be tied, now. He is T7th in overall AL fWAR, which is a pretty good tool for measuring the overall value of players. I think he belongs, along with Wong and Houck, but it would not surprise me, if Houck is our only rep. I do not think fWAR is what most fans look at before voting.