moonslav59

Guess who will be the number one complainer, if Crochet goes on to greatness, and we "low-balled" him, when we had the chance to extend him. For those of us suggesting we offer him an unprecedented extension, based on his limited MLB IP, I for one am ready to admit to a major blunder, if he comes up way short. It is a major risk/gamble. I think we all know that. We tried to get Betts to extend before he was a year from free agency. He said no, and look how his asking price jumper out of JH's range. This may or may not happen with crochet, if we wait, and there is merit to waiting, but we should be prepared to lose someone great, if we do so- just as we should be prepared to be let down, if we extend him, and he comes up little.

Strider was drafted by ATL in 2020, so if we count him as part of the "recent wave" of Braves pitching prospects, then can't we also count: Slaten, Fitts and Priester, although not in our system from day 1. Couldn't these guys be counted in the first wave 2017-2021? Houck, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock (NYY system), Wink (KCR/BOS systems) and Perales

Baseball America says we have signing agreements with these players (not official yet) Dorian Soto, SS, Dominican Republic Harold Rivas, OF, Venezuela Eliezer Alfonzo, SS, Venezuela Hector Ramos, SS, Dominican Republic Sadbiel Delzine, RHP, Venezuela Christopher Cordero, RHP, Dominican Republic Jhorman Bravo, SS, Venezuela

I did not think of this, and Cochet may not want to go this route, but it's worth a try. Maybe if he insists on an opt out or two, we can counter with a lower guarantee with performance bonuses to hedge our bet, too.

I hope we get a catcher. Helsley would be great, but I don't want to overpay for 1 year. If he is the balancing act for Arenado, okay, but I still want STL to pay down some of Arenado's deal or take Yoshida + $8M x 3 years. We'd save $10M on Yoshida and pay in a sense, take $10M off Arenado's deal, which already has COL paying $5M x 2, and deferments brining the actual cost down lower than it looks on paper. Herrera, Helsley and Arenado would solve 3-4 of our top 5-6 weak areas. RHB, Catcher, 3B defense and maybe 1B defense, mildly. If we dump Yoshida, I'd be thrilled and count that as another weak area addressed. While I have major concerns on Arenado's bat falling off a cliff, and maybe not fixing the RHB issue, I'd still like Herrera and 1 year of Helsley. (Maybe we extend him, too.)

Indeed. Maybe, after this year, we might have 1-3 that we start those sorts of debates about, If Perales can finally get healthy, he could be one. Guys like Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Early and Sandlin need to do things we have not seen them do, before. That does happen, sometimes, but usually there are some early signs of high skills, such as one to two nasty pitchers already developed. The younger pitchers have a more wide-open future outlook. Tolle is 22, but starts his first professional season in 2025. Valera, Cason and Reyes are just 18. Others are 19-20ish.

Pujols, Goldschmidt, Miggy, and many more dropped off significantly and some, quite early in their new deals.

Yes, okay. Crochet might have total confidence that he will be an ace for 7-10 more years, but he has to worry about a major injury, and that is why he should take less than open market prices starting 2 years from now. I think he might take a similar offer to what we have suggested. The sticking point might be on opt-outs and when they are.

I'm not saying expect it to happen, but to me, gambling on a 25 year old is 10 times better than gambling on a 30-32 year old for 7-8 years. We could be pissed after just one year. I get it. Really, I do. We could be upset 3-4 years into a 7 year deal, like with Price. We could be pissed 1-3 years into an extension, like Sale's, then get doubly pissed when he wins a Cy Young, they year we finally give up on him, once and for all. The risk is always there. I like the Crochet risk more than the Burnes, Fried, Price, Sale and many others' risk. You don't. That is fine and understandable, but I'm not sure why you'd have been happier signing Fried or Burnes than the Crochet, or would you be?

He is the exact case to make my point. Guys over 30-31 don't bounce back and give a lot of value after an injury. Freakishly, he did give 1 Cy Young season under the years of that extension, but his overall value was a big dud. If Crochet has a major injury, I like his chances of still giving some value, afterwards much more than if Burnes or Fried get hurt year 1, 2 or 3. I've said over and over, this is major risk and gamble. Signing Fried and Burnes has major risks, too. They also have an almost certain age-related decline projected.

All of it, unless we can talk him into team options with buy-outs. I fully realize, he could not do so great in the next 2 years, and I'd have egg on my face, and maybe he will take less than what I'm putting out here, but I'm thinking the highest I'd go, and I still think it is less than he'd get, if a teams could sign him right now, as a FA, but with the contract starting in 2027. Look what Yamo got, and he had no MLB experience. It's more about age and skill level vs risk, and I think younger players have a better chance at bouncing back from injury or a couple down years than a 30-32 year SP'er signing for 7-8 years. Maybe he takes $120/6 plus $20M for the 2 arb years ($140M/8.) Maybe he won't go past 4-5 years, in hopes of a mega payday, later. I'm just saying I'd try to lock him up until age 30-31. Go prime not post-prime.

I am doing exactly this. I'd say his current FA market price (if he was 27) might be $28M x 8. I'm offeri ng an extension at $20M x 6, maybe up to $25M x 7. It is LESS!

Agreed, but a TJS at age 33 or 34 for Burnes or Fried, seems more dangerous, in terms of expecting very little, if anything, afterwards, than if Crochet has another major injury at age 27 or 28. We could still salvage some value, years 6-8.

I think Bregman's price and years has to drop for the Sox to bite. I doubt they go $200M/8. Maybe $156-162M/6 is the best he can get, so we might go there. He could get an opt out after 3-4 years, too. I might even give him one after 2 years. Maybe we have the Campbell-Mayer situation figured out, by then. (Story's gone after 3.)

I was thinking in terms of the lowest probable cost and shortest probable contracts of players still on the market. That's why I guessed on them.

Those two did have longer histories of success, as did Betts and others. Crochet is unique, and it's hard to know what he's thinking and what his agent is telling him about his future value.

They are "light" on top pitching prospects, when compared to the Braves and many other MLB farm systems, but I do think the turn-around has begun. While only 1 top 7 prospect is a pitcher (Perales at #4,) pitchers dominate the mid and lower levels of our prospect rankings list. After the top 7, 13 of the next 19 are pitchers. 18 of the bottom 36 are also pitchers. I think there is a good chance we see some of these guys jump in the rankings, while many will fall or stay even. (I'm not counting moving up due to top prospects graduating in 2025.) The addition of pitchers on the farm and the bigs goes beyond just prospects. Brez non-prospect pitcher additions also include: Crochet (younger than some ranked prospects,) Slaten, Criswell, Priester, Weissert, plus Buehler, Giolito, Sandoval, Chapman, Hendriks, Fulmer, Wilson and several others.

Yates will probably get just 1 year, so the Sox could be all over that. I could see Yates and Grichuk to end the off season.

This is how I see it, and sometimes giving a relatively "lower paid" arb guy more money up front, than he would have made in arbs, will get him to sign for less in the latter part of the contract. The AAV becomes lower, which can help going forward, if we ever need a little budget wiggle room. Unless we sign Bregman or take on Arenado's full contact, we can afford his contract, this year, and stay under the tax line, and then have a lower tax line over the rest of his time, here- in theory. Waiting makes sense, only if he gets hurt or regresses. I guess with our track record on picking players to add, that makes some sense, but to me, go with the 25 year old and cross your fingers.

You think that is is max ceiling? (I'm not disagreeing- just wondering why.)

No, you are right, asking what an arb guy would make, right now is NOT "100 relevant," but the point I was getting at was that if Crochet would get $20M a year, now, as a FA, and I think he'd get more, due to his age, then how can giving him an AAV starting in 2 years be some sort of gross overpay. If teams were allowed to sign guys 2 years ahead of their current contract as FAs, IMO, he'd easily get more than $20M x 5 or 6 years. He'd probably get $25M x 6. That's how I choose to look at it- fully realizing it is based on speculation more than proven success- much like Yamo's contract was. So, buy out the arb years ay about $20M/2 ($4M + $16M) and add $150M/6 and you come to $170M/8. To make sure it get's done, and to discourage opt-outs, I'd go $180M/8, maybe more. It's not a perfect method to determine future value, but the amount seems fair, to me, and more importantly, might seem fair to Crochet. We can't keep low-balling our best players as they near their walk time.

If only... (Nice work!)

That was my point from day one. #1 priority is to maximize years of control on the 25 year old. Don't go insane, but be fair and generous. Front end load it some to entice him take a little less, later to lower the AAV. Insist on no opt-outs, but if the numbers get insane, start working backwards on the year he gets an opt out. We might have to settle on 2029, or even 2028, but we need as many as possible. I fully realize the risk. He could be the next Whitlock or Strasburg and kills us in several different ways, but we gotta commit to someone: put the money on the young guy.

They lost me, if they don't lock him up. They might as well have just punted to 2027 with Teel and the Gang. For years, I have been saying we need to add 3 SP'ers, but we'll be lucky if we add one. I guess I should be happy we added Crochet, Buehler and Gio (in a roundabout way) and Sandoval (in an about-round way.) I am, actually, although I'm sick these rehab-type signings. Our rotation is top 2-3 in the AL and maybe top 5 in MLB. That is not an easy thing to do, when we went into 2024 with Gio as out lone hope, and Houck was forced into the 5 slot, when he went down. The D still sucks, and please, no "But Story is...." The pen was okay, last year, but the worst over the second half, and we lost our best pen arms. Adding Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson does not move the needle mush, for me. The offense may need a group effort and better health to just break even. There is still time to fix 2-3 of our top 4-5 higher need areas, but we may need cash or some shrewd trading by the Brezman. I keep moving between mild optimism and near total pessimism, checking in on MLBTR in vain hopes I see something that excites me, and trying to keep some slivers of hope alive. I think our team is better. I do not see other AL teams making big leaps and bounds to pass us or widen the gap that may already exist. Our team is younger than most. We have more ML ready top prospects than everyone else. We have a solid rotation and 5 pitcher rotation depth (Crawford, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins & Fulmer.) We have about 20 RP'ers with varying levels of promise, but not enough we can count on to be "the man," when we need it most. We have some very nice offensive players, some with serious split flaws or defensive liabilities, but a few platoons might work out well. OOooops, there I go again- putting the pie in the sky. Nevermind.

Never heard the "car wreck" line. They were right to let Jake and many others walk.