moonslav59

I've talked about the depth and quality of our everyday players on the 40 and near ML ready non 40 prospects, and now I will talk about our pitching situation, going forward. While our staff is now 2nd in fWAR in all or MLB, I sill think it looks weaker, looking at 2025 and beyond than the other side of the plate. Of course, I believe our fielding is the weakest link of all, but pitching and batting matter most of all. (Baserunning is probably 4th.) As most of us know, we have some key pitchers reaching free agency, this winter, and perhaps others may never match this year's numbers again, but I won't speak to career highs or outliers, now. FAs to be by current IP: 81 Pivetta 3.87 (110 ERA+ and 3.66 FIP) 49 Anderson 4.59 (4 really bad games out of 23) 33 Jansen 2.16 (25 svs) 26 Martin 3.42 (on IL) It's hard to project what Giolito, Whitlock, Hendriks and even I Campbell & Murphy might give us in 2025, and maybe it might be enough to replace what we are losing, but the closer slot is very worrisome for 2025. Perhaps Fitts can help from the farm, but he's about all we have, there, for 2025. Returning staff: 117 Houck 2.54 (hard to know what he will do in 2025, but looking good) 113 Crawford 3.04 (looking good, too) 90 Bello 5.32 (We need him to look more like 2023) 58 Criswell 4.50 (Maybe our Long man in '25?) 43 Slaten 3.38 (Could be key for 2025 success) 42 Weissert 4.32 (Hard to project) 41 Wink 3.27 (Tough to project) 37 Kelly 1.96 (Looking good, this year) 32 Bernardino 2.53 (a couple bad games should not shadow over a good '24) 31 Booser 2.90 (perhaps a fluke) 18 Whitlock 1.96 (looked great in 4 GS) 7 I Campbell 16.20 (was supposed to be pretty good) 0 Giolito, Hendriks & Murphy For 2025, I hope to see this: SP1 Houck SP2 __FA__ (or trade) SP3 Crawford SP4 Giolito SP5 Bello LR/SP Criswell (Fitts) Closer __FA__ (or trade) RP2 Whitlock RP3 Hendriks RP4 Slaten RP5 Kelly RP6 Winckowski RP7 Bernardino (or RP7 Criswell: see SP6) Weissert, I Campbell, Fulmer, Booser, Dobbins Horn, Murphy, Mata, Walter, Guerrero Needing just 2 pitchers does not sound like much, but the 2 needed are big needs: #2 SP and a Closer.

YES! Perhaps the shocker in all of MLB, when it comes to team WAR. Maybe, almost as surprising: SP 11.7 PHI (2nd in IP by SP'ers) 10.1 KCR (3rd in SP IP) 9.8 SEA (1st in SP IP) 9.8 ATL (6th) 9.5 DET (16th) 9.1 BOS (6th) 21st in IP, when IP is a big part of fWAR RP 5.0 CLE (9th in RP IP) 4.8 PHI (27th in RP IP) 4.1 CIN (16th in IP) 4.0 BOS 4th (10th in RP IP, and IP is a big driver of fWAR) 3.7 MIA (3rd) 3.1 MIN (26th)

I said I hope it is not a momentum stopper. It will take 2-3 more losses in the next 3-4 games for me to think the momentum has swung. If that happens, I suppose it might mean last night's loss was the start of a momentum change, but we would not know if it might have swung, even if we had won 1-0. I do not think one game, alone determines momentum in MLB. Other sports, maybe.

1 game might not mean they have changed the momentum, just as our loss last night, may not change ours.

Hard to blame the loss on one pitch.

It's one thing I go against what studies show.

C 3.6 NYY 3.1 LAD 15. BOS 1.8 1B 4.8 PHI 3.3 LAD 3.2 AZ 17. BOS 0.4 (Better than I thought) 2B 3.7 AZ 3.0 TOR & MIL 30. BOS -1.4 (Been the thorn in our side since Pedey) SS 6.3 BAL 6.0 KCR 4.9 MIN 4.7 CIN, LAD, PHI 19. BOS 1.3 3B 3.8 CLE 3.2 MIN 3.1 TEX 8. BOS 2.4 LF 4.4 CLE 3.2 BOS 2.7 MIL CF 5.6 NYY 3.2 COL 2.5 MIN 7. BOS 1.8 RF 6.3 NYY 3.8 HOU 3.5 BAL 2.8 BOS DH 5.2 LAD (Will a DH only win the MVP?) 3.2 ATL 2.6 AZ 23. BOS -0.4 (Sad, sad, SAD!) OF as a whole: 12.7 NYY 7.8 BOS Not long ago, this was a weak link for the Sox. 6.8 MIL, SDP

Team fWAR (Pitching, Everyday Players) 35.6 PHI (16.6, 19.0) Clearly the best 30.7 BAL (11.2, 19.5) Tough team to beat 29.4 LAD (9.4, 20.0) Barely better than MIN? Wow! 29.0 MIN (10.7, 18.3) Surprises me they are 4th best 28.3 NYY (7.8, 20.5) Will their decline continue? 25.0 BOS (13.1, 11.9) 6th best in MLB and rising 24.9 MIL (6.3, 18.6) Thought pitching was better, despite losing Burnes 22.9 KCR (11.2, 11.7) Still surprising. 22.7 ATL (12.6, 10.1) Overrated? 22.3 CLE (7.9, 14.6) Tito= Manager of the Year 21.5 HOU (6.6, 14.9) This team has the best chance to pass us. 20.3 SEA (11.6, 8.7) May lose the division to HOU (or TEX) 20.3 DET (10.4, 9.9) House of cards is crumbling down. 3 ALE teams in the top 6!

66 Games to go and here are the bWAR/fWAR averages: AVG Player (bWAR, fWAR) with about 40% of the season to go, projects to about... 4.6 Duran (5.2, 3.9) 6.5 projected 3.4 Devers (3.2, 3.5) 4.8 1.8 Abreu (1.9, 1.6) 2.5 1.7 O'Neill (1.7, 1.7) 2.4 1.5 Wong (1.8, 1.2) 2.1 1.5 DHam (1.6, 1.3) 2.1 1.1 Rafaela (1.6, 0.5) 1.5 0.8 Resnyder (0.7, 0.8) 1.2 0.4 Casas (0.2, 0.5) 0.5 (if he hardly plays) 0.3 Romy (0.5, 0.1) 0.4 0.2 McGuire (0.1, 0.3) 0.3 0.0 Yoshida (0.1, -0.2) 0.0 -0.1 SMith (-0.2, 0.0) -0.1 -0.3 Valdez (-0.4, -0.2) -0.4 -0.7 Grissom (-0.5, -0.9) -1.1 Pitching 3.2 Houck (2.9, 3.4) 4.4 projected 2.5 Crawford (2.6, 2.3) 3.5 1.5 Pivetta (1.5, 1.5) 2.1 1.4 Jansen (1.5, 1.3) 2.0 0.9 Bern (1.1, 0.6) 1.3 0.9 Slaten (0.5, 1.3) 1.3 0.8 Kelly (1.2, 0.3) 1.4 0.6 Whit (0.9, 0.3) 0.6 (out for season) 0.6 Booser (0.7, 0.5) 0.8 0.4 Criswell (0.0, 0.8) 0.6 0.4 Wink (0.4, 0.3) 0.6 0.2 Bello (-0.4, 0.7) 0.2 0.2 Martin (0.2, 0.1) 0.2 0.0 Ander. (0.2, -0.3) -0.1 -0.2 Weiss. (-0.4, 0.1) -0.2

Still not over it?

I just hope a tough loss like this, to a very good team, does not derail the momentum this team has established.

Time for him to see Woo.

I disagree on O'Neill. He's streaky. While his BAbip is .341, that is lower than Duran, Abreu, Wong, Ref and DHam's. His Hard Hit% is 48.1 (3rd best on team) He will get hot, again- maybe twice.

We need 2 SP'ers and a RP'er. (At worst, 1 very good SP'er and 2 RP'ers.) Forget the RHB. 2.54 Houck 3.04 Crawford 3.87 Pivetta Then what? 4.50 Criswell 5.32 Bello (3.27 Wink, but just 5 GS) Martin and Slaten are on the IL. 2.16 Jansen 1.96 Kelly 2.53 Bernardino (slump) 2.90 Booser (sustainable?) 3.27 Wink (needed in rotation?) 4.32 Weissert 4.59 Anderson

Farm Records: DSL Red 25-9 (+119 run diff) DSL Blue 12-18 (-45) Salem A- 46-42 (+3) Grnvll A+ 38-49 (-36) Prtlnd AA 47-39 (+20) Woo AAA 45-48 (+69!!!)

2025

Snake bite game. Missed opportunities. O'Neill's lack of hustle. (I also thought he did not run all out on the double down the line.) The pen is hurting without Martin and Slaten. Gotta bunch our hits better.

Woo wong big. 3-6 Meidroth w HR 2-6 Valdez w HR & 2B 3-5 Yorke w HR 2-5 Sogard w HR & BB 3-5 Dalbec w 2B 2-4 Alvarez w 3B & BB 0-3 Kavadas w 2BB & SF Gambrell 5 IP, 3H, 1 ER, 2BB, 4K POR won 6-2 I Coffey 5IP, 4H, 1ER, 2BB, 4K 3-3 Mayer w HR & BB 1-3 Teel w BB 1-4 Anthony w 3B 2-4 Jordan w HR 1-4 Campbell w 2rbi Salem won 6-5 3-4 Anderson w 3B 2-5 Alcantara FCL won 5-3 1-3 w BB Arias 2-4 Nunez 1=2 w BB Riemer DSL Red won 4-0 as Beltre & Payano combined for a no-hitter!

Can they keep up with us? JUN>JUL 24-13 BOS (25-13 since May 31st) 22-19 BAL 18-21 NYY

Slaten might be our next closer.

2023 Deadline trades: Flaherty for Prieto, Showalter & Rom Verlander for Clifford & Gilbert 2022: Luis Castillo for EArroyo, Moore, Marte & Stoudt The Sox traded Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber (tough comp, since he was not a pitcher and was injured.)

I’m sure some top prospects have been traded for 2 month rentals before but for guys like Flaherty, we could probably get him for Monegro or Paulino and Wikelman.

My response was somewhat tongue in cheek, but other than Vladdy's one big season, he has been very good but not great. Take out 2021 and his numbers vs Sox pitching, and what is his OPS? Good but not great. Of course, I'd prefer him over D Smith at 1B for 2024 (and maybe shared DH, with Casas when he returns) and Yoshida at DH in 2025, but that means eating Yoshi's contract- making Valddy very expensive.

Agreed. We should and will not trade a top 6 prospect for a rental, and all the prospects below 6, except maybe pitchers, would not be taking a dent out of the longer term future. Sure, we could trade a mid level prospect and watch them do great, but we have a solid 11-12 everyday players returning for 2025 and 4-6 top prospects who should be ML ready by 2025, so we already look to have bottlenecks at certain positions. Our OF is loaded and LHB centric: 2025 control or longer... L Duran L Abreu R Rafaela (SS/2B) R Refsnyder (2025 only) L Anthony R Campbell R Lugo R Yorke (2B) and maybe Valdez to LF 2026 or later: Bleis, Jh Garcia, Castro, Coffey, Taylor, Yuten, Asencio SS/2B lacks in top quality, but excels in quantity of players/prospects with some promise: Story Rafaela (CF) Mayer Campblell (LF) DHam Grissom Yorke Valdez (LF?) Romy (1B/OF) Meidroth, Paulino, Westbrook, Sogard, Alvarez, McDonough 2026 or beyond: Cespedes, Zanetello, Arias, Romero, Anderson, Alcantara, Nunez, Ravelo C/DH (C: Wong, McGuire '25 only & Teel) Jo Garcia, Hickey, Brannon, Gasper (1B) DH: Valdez, Lugo, Kavadas (1B,) Yorke, Jordan, Encarnacion & J Gonzalez (1B) The only 2 positions we do not have extensive depth happen to be the two positions with top 3 quality players: 3B: Devers 1B: Casas Our pitching depth is thin in the minors, but we have thought that for over 6 years, and we currently have a very nice staff of many homegrown pitchers + pitchers acquired as prospects or recent grads. While it would be great to have a 5 deep OF core on the 26 (Duran, Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu & Campbell,) when you have high need areas, like pitching, it makes sense to trade one. Our middle IF is not top heavy, like the OF is, but we can afford to trade depth for a rental.

How Soon Is Now?