moonslav59

I'm not, but he wasn't very good in 2023, either, and he has not earned an inside track over DHam and Romy.

They should be "fill-ins" until Campbell wins the job, which could happen by opening day. This is about DHam/Romy vs Grissom or DHam/Romy vs DHam/Grissom, IMO. DHam played the best D at 2B out of the 3. DHam stole 33 bases in just 313 PAs. (Romy stole 11 in 216.) While going by just 2024 numbers is not the way to make a choice, Grissom has done poorly for 2 straight years. (.545 OPS '23-'24) Last 2 years: Romy .680 and DHam .671 overall 2024 Splits: v R: . .729 DHam .498 Romy (.460 in '23) 425 Grissom (.770 in '23) v L: . .879 Romy (.666 in '23) .619 Grissom (.522 in '23) .532 DHam I would not say anyone is locked into any role at 2B to start 2025, and this is even beyond the Campbell option, but I'd go with a DHam-Romy 2B platoon, unless something jumps out during ST'ing or Campbell wins the job.

I think Grissom will get a long hard look in ST'ing and with all things looking even, might get the nod over Romy v LHPs, but I can't see why we'd start him vs RHPs over DHam, who plays much better 2B D and can steal 50-60 bases over 160 games. (Also, Romy was one of our better hitters vs LHPs, in 2024.) Who is Herbandez?

I never really trust a treatment of "building up the muscles around" the problem area, but that seems to be the rough idea, here. I'm worried, too, but if surgery was not a cure, what else can be done?

On away games, Ref in RF is fine with me. At home, I prefer someone/anyone esle. I can't see what Cora did home and away, but my guess is Ref started more games in LF at Fenway than RF. On the road, it was likely flipped.

What is encouraging about Goldschmidt's track record? What about Cabrera and LeMahieu replacing Torres? Am I missing the track record, there? I do think Bellinger will have a good year, but his track record is spotty. He has a track record more in line with Verdugo than Soto. Last 4 years: .725 Verdugo (6.9 bWAR) .724 Bellinger (6.3 bWAR) So, count Bellinger as Verdugo's replacement. Goldy for Rizzo, then this... Cabrera & LeMahieu for Torres and Mr. Diddly for Soto, yet somehow us losing O'Neall comes close to this? I'm flabbergasted.

Steamers projects .756 for Bellinger & Goldschmidt. Who is replacing Torres? .699 Cabrera .681 LeMahieu (I'm assuming Chisholm plays 3B.) They project these OPS, too: .958 Soto .734 Torres .703 Rizzo These are "objective numbers," too. We lost a guy STEAMER projects to have a .751 OPS in 2025.

We lost a guy who only played 2/3 a season. It was a big loss, I agree, and it was a loss in an area where we sucked to begin with. but losing Soto, Torres, Dugo and Rizzo is massive vs LHPs and RHPs. Bellinger should do well, but he is a huge "what if?" and Goldy has been falling off a cliff by more than Arenado, on offense. Why are you giving them the benefit of the doubt, but not our 24-29 year old players?

Goldschmidt turns 101 in September (38 in Dog years.) His OPS dropped 171 points, 2 years ago and 94 points in 2024. He had a 98 OPS+. I'm not sure why you expect improvement from a 38 year ols, and suggest I am being overly optimistic by saying I project improvement by our whole group of pre-prime, peak prime and prime players, who are basically everybody but Ref. While the 1B position was a mess for NYY, last year and a .716 repeat OPS bt Goldschmidt would still be a nice gain from 2024, I'm not seeing Goldy making up for the loss of Soto, Torres and Dugo. Bellinger has a much better chance to make a dent in the losses, but no way he and Goldy come close to what they lost. Anytime a lefty joins NYY, you have to think they could have a big year, and Cody just might, but the guy has been all over the map. I'd say he has as many or more questions as our Sox players do. His OPS over the last 4 years: .542 in '21 (44 OPS+) .654 in '22 (81) .881 in '23 (139) .751 in '24 (111) Verdugo's last 4 OPS+ 107>102>100>81 Torres last 4: 93>113>118>101 Soto: 158>127>155>178 Rizzo: 110>130>94>81

We essentially added Giolito to the rotation, too. You failed to point out who was lost from the rotation. We lost Paxton: they lost Cortes, so I give us the edge on improving that area. We also added Hendriks to the pen. Yes, we lost Jansen and Martin, but also a lot of scrubs that look like addition by subtraction. The Yanks lost Holmes, Trivino and Kahlne. I still agree, though- advantage NYY by a hair. (You claimed "not even close?") On batting: The Yanks lost a ton of offense in Soto, some with Torres and a little with Verdugo & Rizzo. To me they lost a lot more than they gained with Bellinger and Goldschmidt, who might be slightly better than Rizzo. We lost O'Neall and McGuire/Jansen and gained nobody. I say we lost less than NYY did: edge BOS.

I can't find any recent reports on his shoulder(s.) Back in September, they said it was "nothing structural," and that off season workout is all that is needed. I, too, have my doubts. It's not like our medical team has a great record. Devers has said both shoulders bothered him, but the left one was the worst and "hurt" all season. It's pretty amazing that he was on his way to his best career OPS into mis August, despite the injury. It seems like just about every Sox player has some sort of lingering question(s.)

With no Anthony or an addition like Grichuk on the opening day line-up, I'd say Ref is the LF platoon. This assumes Yoshida is healthy. Even if we add Grichuk/Laureano or Anthony to the roster, Ref should start every game vs LHPs, even if it means platooning Yoshida at DH. I see our opening day OF configuration as such: LF: Duran v R/ Ref v L CF: Rafaela v R/ Duran v L RF: Abreu v R/ Rafaela v L (As you can see, Duran and RAF play FT, while Abreu and Ref platoon.) If Yoshida is hurt, we might see Romy platoon with Abreu in RF and Ref DH or platoon DH with ____?

If the MLB 13 man pitching staff begins with Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Wink, Wilson, Weissert and Guerrero, these would be the pitchers lined up to make the 14 man AAA staff. (Assuming Sandoval, Murphy & Perales begin the season on the 60 Day IL.) SP: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Fulmer, Gambrell, Drohan RP: Bernardino, Penrod, Kelly, I Campbell, Mata, A Adams, J Moran Noah Davis, Wyatt Mills, Robert Stock, Brian Van Belle, Hobie Haris, S Newcomb, Wyatt Olds, Jose Adames That looks like pretty decent AAA pitching depth, for once.

Is this how we start the season? vs RHP 1. L Duran LF 2. L DHam 2B 3. L Casas 1B 4. L Devers 3B 5. R Story SS 6. L Abreu RF 7. L Yoshida DH 8. R Wong C 9. Rafaela CF vs LHPs 1. L Duran CF 2. R Refsnyder LF 3. R Story SS 4. L Devers 3B 5. L Casas 1B 6. R Romy 2B 7. L Yoshida DH 8. R Wong C 9. Rafaela RF SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito, Crawford RP: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Weissert, Guerrero If Campbell makes the 26, he coudl bat 2nd FT and play 2B. Ref could bat 3rd vs LHPs, and Story 5th...

Solid post, again. I don't think Yoshida is tradeable, and throwing in a good player to dump him is a hard thing to do. I don't think we'd call up Mayer or any of the big 3 to be a sub. We've all lost confidence in our FO. Their lack of actions, wrong actions are bad enough, but the lies and deceptions just drive it into our hearts.

Here is a look at the ALE and top AL contenders' winter pluses and minuses: BOS: Lost Pivetta, Jansen, Martin, O'Neill, D Jansen/McGuire, L Garcia/Sims Added: Crochet, Buehler, Chapman, Sandoval, Wilson, Narvaez, J Moran NYY: Lost Soto, Torres, Cortes, Holmes, Verdugo, Rizzo, Kahnle, Berti, Trevino, Poteet Added: Fried, D Willimas, Bellinger, Goldschmidt, Loaisiga, F Cruz BAL: Lost Burnes, Santander, Means, McCann, E Jimenez, A Slater, J Webb & Coulombe Added: O'Neill, Morton, G Sanchez, Kittredge, D Carlson & T Sugano TBR: Lost Springs, Carlson, Siri, Poche & T Alexander Added: H-S Kim, D Jansen & E Jimenez TOR: Lost Yarbrough, Tate, Horwitz & Romano Added: Santander, Scherzer, Hoffman, Y Garcia, Straw, A Gimenez, N Sandlin & J Walker HOU: Lost Tucker, Bregman (?) Kikuchi, Pressly, Verlander, Urguidy, Neris, Graveman, Gamel, C Ferguson, Heywood Added: Paredes, Walker, Wesneski CLE: Lost Boyd, Cobb, Naylor, Straw, Gimenez, Sandlin & Morgan Add: Santana, Sewald, Luis Ortiz, Cecconi DET: Lost nobody at all Added: G Torres, Cobb & Kahnle KCR: Lost Singer, Y Gurriel, Frazier, W Smith, Pham, DeJong & Grossman Add: India, Estevez, Lorenzen, Wiemer SEA: Lost Y Garcia, Josh Rojas, J Turner, Urias, Chargois, Voth & Haggerty Added: Polanco, Solano & Mastrobuoni MIN: Lost Margot, Santana, DeSclafani, Kepler, Farmer, Thielbar & Moran Added: nobody at all To me, only TOR, DET and BOS clearly got better. BAL, HOU and MIN got worse The others stayed about even or maybe got worse.

Ref should. They guy has been a lefty killer for 3 years in a row. Only 11 batters in all of MLB have a higher OPS vs LHPs and more PAs than Ref since 2022. He's at .910. Yoshida has an .810 OPS vs RHPs, career- not great but pretty good. If Ref hits .910 and Yoshida .810, our DH might hit .845-.850. That would have placed them 5th in 2024 DH OPS. We placed 13th, last year at .742.

I told myself to expect no more spending, but then that damn Soto thing got to me.

Yes, I have fond memories of signing that song in February.

Ohtani to pitch in May.

They did talk about Yoshida playing some OF, but that does not have to be opening day or even in April. I'm thinking he'll be the opening day DH, unless we face a lefty, and we decide to start Ref at DH, not the OF. The reports I see say Yoshi should be ready by the first day of ST'ing or by opening day.

When you try to take an optimistic view of our pitching staff, while remaining somewhat realistic and objective, we can think that health could be the number one issue with the idea that all of our pitchers under he age of 32 could maybe just repeat or come close to their best single season years since 2017 (last 7 full seasons.) In this light, here are the best fWAR seasons by our current pitchers. 5.6 Buehler '21 (5.1 in '19 & 3.1 in '18) 5.2 Giolito '19 (4.1 in '21, 2.0 in the short '20 season & 1.8 in '22) 4.7 Crochet '24 (1.4 in '21) 3.9 Houck '24 (2.3 in '21) 3.7 Sandoval '22 (2.3 in '23) 3.6 Fulmer '17 (1.5 in '18 & '21) 2.4 Crawford '23 (1.9 in '24) 1.6 Bello '23 (1.3 in '24) 1.1 Criswell '24 Pen: 3.9 Hendriks '19 (2.7 in '21 & 1.6 in '22) * turns 36 soon 2.1 Chapman '19 (1.8 in '18 & '23) * turns 37 soon 1.6 Whitlock '21 (1.4 '22) 1.5 Slaten '24 There is no way all of these guys approach their season highs in 2025, especially Hendriks, Chapman and maybe Giolito & Fulmer, but I do not think coming close is any wild expectation or wish. We could see.... Buehler & Crochet: 4-5.5 Houck & Giolito: 3-4.5 Crawford & Bello: 1.5-3 Criswell 0.8-1.3 & Sandoval for a half season of 0.8-1.3 Pen: Slaten & Whitlock: 1.5- 2.5 Hendriks & Chapman: 1.0-2.0 We won't see all these guys meet these lofty possibilities, but one or two could even exceed the range listed, here, and we might just need 3-4 of our starters to meet these ranges to have a nice season. The pen may need to go 3-4 or 4-4, unless some other pen arm steps up.

I seriously doubt we get to opening day with the unbalanced 40 man roster. When we add Murphy, Perales and Sandoval to the 60 day IL, I'm thinking we add at least 2 everyday players to the 40. One might be Campbell or Anthony- maybe both, but we will not allow it to get to a point where JH arcia gets the call before being ML ready. I think one will be Eaton, and if we end up having to DFA him, later, and lose him, it won't be a big deal. Once we add Campbell and Anthony, they are locked into a slot on the 40, and someone else will need to be DFA'd if we need to add someone else. This is the advantage of adding guys like Eaton, Toro or Sykes. It won't be Hickey or Binelas, so who else is on the AAA roster that could be #40?

Did we ever get a clear diagnosis? If it was structural, like a rotator cuff and needs surgery, at some point, but some issues do heal with just rest. I'm worried.

I'm not sure we need them to be that good, but we do need quite a few things to go right. Many are based almost totally on health, although someone like Story could play 150 games but hit just .650. IMO, that would still give us a boost, but not enough to make a big difference. (Our SS position hit a surprising .761 in 2024.) I think we may start Campbell at 2B, in part because the kid has been a monster, but also because our unbalanced line-up. We keep Anthony in AAA for just long enough to gain the extra year of control (mid May?) and Mayer stays in AAA, until needed. If our OF is doing fine, we may hold off on an Anthony promotion even longer.