moonslav59

This has to be viewed as the beginning of a playoff run or something I do not want to even think about. "Just win, baby!"

Will old threads be available for viewing and posting?

I was hoping we'd be closer to a playoff slot than we are now, but the next two weeks might be out best shot at getting us into the dance. We play 5 vs TOR in 4 days, then 3 at DET and 3 at NYM, before coming back home for 3 vs the CWS, after a day off. That's 14 games in 14 days. We are 4 games down in the loss column to KCR and MIN. The KCR play 7 v CLE, 4 @HOU, 3 v MIN and 3 @ NYY in the next 17 days. MIN has it a little easier, but they end the year with 4@CLE, 3 @ BOS and 3 vs BAL out of their last 13 games. There is still hope, but we will have to see some pen arms turn it around, and our SP'er get through the 4-6 inning mark. GO SOX!

Really quite unexplainable, as is maybe their road record.

I know. I'm finding it hard to cling to a sliver of hope. I'm looking at our next 14 games, as well as KC's and others ahead of us, and am thinking the next 2 weeks should help decide the issue of holding onto hopes.

Do you really think all he "expected" was near $162M/6? With BorA$$ as his agent? I could be wrong with my speculation, for sure, but I think if he was happy with $162M/6, we'd have made a real offer, somewhere near that 2-3 years prior to his signing w SDP. Just my take. He saw what some other SSs got, and was easily justified in thinking $200M was legit, even if $200M/11.

Yes, I get that, and the "fitting ending" relates to the team's chances, too...maybe?

You packing in this season? (I can't blame you.)

Jh Garcia with another 2 hit game. E R-C 5 IP, 4H, 2ER, 1BB, 4K for GRE

Very sad loss in a pretty close to must win situation. Coming close is getting tiring.

I don't disagree, but pen arms are often up and down. I'm not projecting an "up" from ours, but it is possible. It might be too late, even if it somehow happens.

Sickening feeling in the gut area.

I'm saying what he might have expected. Story probably expected more than $140M/6, too. One major difference was that Bogey was not recently injured when signed. I do not think Bogey expected as low as $162M/6. I think he was looking for 7-8 years, minimum. Maybe $190M/7. Semien got $175M/7. Seager got $325M/10. Lindor got $341M/10. Do those numbers matter? I'm just talking what I think he and BorA$$ were "expecting," and not what I think they'd get. What was Monty expecting, last winter?

Man, 1st and second with no outs and Casas and Devers up to bat... POOF!

Tough inning for Houck, who is now at 76 pitches. Our rotation has really had a hard time in the 5th and 6th inning (4th for some,) recently. Before today... 224 runs allowed in innings 4-6 185 innings 7-9 (24 less IP, due to some games with no 9th IP.) 173 innings 1-3 88 7th 79 6th 73 4th 72 5th (75, after today)

Just like that, Devers has more RBI per PA than his career norm. (previously, he was ahead of his career RBI per AB.) Can we now stop with the low RBI talk?

The DSL Red team keeps winning in their post season (4-0, now.) They scored 2 in the bottom of the 9th to win 8-7 via 2 sac flies. Payano pitched 5 innings of 1 hit and no BBs (4Ks.) Early just struck out Rizzo with a man on 2nd and 3rd to hold the game at 1-1 in the 5th. 4.2IP, 4H, 1ER, 2BB, 9K. (9Ks out of 14 outs) He was just pulled from the game.

Gotta hope Houck can stay sharp into the late innings, here. How about a crooked number, this inning?

Agreed, but I do think expecting $200M offers was entirely within reason for a SS with his consistent record. I think might have expected something like $220M/9 or $230M/10. I just don't think the Sox would ever have come near offering that amount, and that is why they signed Story and apparently never even made an official offer, until maybe that one at the end. They knew, through talks, that they were far away from making an acceptable offer. To me, the best chance they had was when he signed the contract with DD. Maybe offering more, then, and not having an opt out, or pushing the opt out back a year or two was our best chance at signing him, within the context of how high JH would ever go. With XB's defense not being all that good, and some metrics say he was among the very worst, I can understand why no $200M offer was made. In hindsight, if this decline in his offense is for real, maybe we made the right call. It will take years to know this. (This is not to say I am glad he is not still here. I wish we still had him.)

I think the "most" extreme would have been trading Crochet at the deadline, but they are about as bad as a team can get (by choice.)

I remain "hopeful," but the word hope seems to carry an active aspect that assumes one thinks it could happen. While I do think it "could happen," I am very far from expecting it will or might happen. I am tired of expecting JH to start spending "this winter." While has has given some the biggest contracts in team history over the last 3 seasons, we have lost so much salary from productive players, that it has not been enough to keep pace. The massive drop from 2019 (which also saw the loss of Kimbrel & Kelly with no replacement) to 2020 left so much ground to make up that the 2021 "uptick" was largely a mirage. Looking back, I'm not all that angry about 2022 and 2023. I thought, at those times, we were just 2, maybe 3 major additions away from being a top contender. Maybe the hopes stirred up during the 2021 season gave me unrealistic expectations, but maybe 2021 was not a fluke. Anyway, I do not think a major pitcher added in 2022 or 2023 would have won us a ring, so I can understand why we held off. Remember, when you make a huge SP'er signing, the guy is usually 30-32 years old, and your window is short. Adding a 31 year old ace in 2022 might be a waste of money, by now. I felt last winter was different. I think we could have started a "window" in 2024, as our kids were progressing, nicely. To me, passing on 2024, and the "full throttle" statement totally turned me off. My hope is that they decided the window starts in 2025, but maybe they are thinking 2026, when Anthony, Mayer, Campbell and Teel have some playing time under their belt. I hope to hell they choose 2025, and if they trade for a 26-28 year old TOTR guy, the window will still be open from 2026-2028 or longer. Again, I am not EXPECTING it to happen, and maybe it doesn't happen in 2026, either. I'll deal with that, if and when it happens. To me, it better be 2025, of I will be joining the JH has to go brigade, which might already be at or above 50% of Red Sox Nation.

He said he didn't like the signing. How is that defending JH? Providing legitimate reasons for why some moves that turned our bad were made is not defending JH or the move (in hindsight.) We all agree that most of our biggest deals going back to the Sale extension have been bad or awful. (If you want to start after the Sale, Bogey and Nate deals, disregard the ones in Blue. Black is the post DD era.) Devers extension: Good, so far, but 9 years to go. Sale extension: Bad deal due to injuries Story signing: has been awful, so far. Yoshida signing: starting to look better, but has been decent at best. Nate re-sign: worked out decently but not great. Bogey extension: Great, but the opt out killed us. Giolito: awful, so far Jansen: good deal Barnes extension: Bad to awful Martin: good due to great 2023 Kike I signing: was okay to good due to plus 2021 season JBJ trade: awful, except for maybe getting DHam. $5M-$10M Richards signing: awful Kluber signing: awful Kike II signing: awful Ottavino trade: okay Wacha: good, despite missed time Duvall: good O'Neill trade: great Perez I & Perez II: okay to bad Hill: good for the money ($5M) Diekman: bad but we unloaded his deal for McGuire. Bello, Rafaela & Whitlock extensions: TBD Did I miss anything? Sale trade: awful (saved $10M, so not really a financial addition.) Betts trade: awful Dugo trade: okay Renfroe trade: maybe DHam redeems Randy, do you agree or disagree with any of the grades I gave? Does it look like this is defending JH? Some of our $3M/1 deals worked out well: Renfroe & Starhm

I never remember that or even anything close to that.

The most optimistic aspect of our chances to make the playoffs is what you just said, and the fact that all of the teams ahead of us have some glaring weaknesses and have had some pretty long stretches of struggle, this year. Some could easily have another one of two tough stretches, especially when you see their remaining schedules. Here are a few stat-based observations about our nearest opponents: KCR: While we can easily construct multiple line-up with no batters below .700, KC has 3 in their top 9 players under .675. 7 out of their 13 players with 160+ PAs are under .675. Their pen has a 4.40 ERA, 1.401 WHIP and .744 OPSA- not good. MIN has a couple SP'er on the IL, and their depth is lacking. Their line-up is nearly as "balanced" as ours, with just one guy out of their top 9 under .700 (Margot .634,) but they also have Vaz at .615, and their depth has very low numbers, except Royce Lewis (.906.) They have a better pen than KCR, but a worse rotation (4.14 ERA & .696 OPSA.) BAL looks pretty damn solid, but they do have Cedric Mullins at .684and much of thier depth is batting lower than .700. (6 guys over .750 comes close to our 7 batters above .750.) 3 of their top 6 SP'ers have an ERA over 4.30 (2 are over 4.80.) I do think Kimbrel is much scarier than Jansen as a closer. NYY may be one of the most unbalanced offenses to ever lead the league in OPS. They are super-dependent on just 2 guys: Soto 1.027 and Judge 1.189. Both are top 3 on the team in PAs, but check this out: here are the next 8 listed by most PAs: .687 Volpe .648 Verdugo .665 Torres .785 Stanton (always battling an injury) .754 Wells .667 Cabrera .630 Rizzo (60 day IL) .512 LeMahieu (subs: Grisham .659 & Rice .636) Chisholm should be counted and has done very well w NYY (1.025 in 68 PAs.) All these teams have weak areas, like we do.

Part III 44. Clarke Intriguing left-hander with an ideal pitcher's frame and present velocity. On the raw side and has a long way to go developmentally. Secondary offerings need work but will flash potential on occasion. Has the frame and velocity that allow you to dream on considerable upside once he is brought into the Red Sox pitching development program. 45. Tygart Medium frame. Has some projection left. Effort in delivery. Fringe-average control. Fastball sits 90-93 mph and tops out at 95 mph. Best pitches are a high-spin, 12-to-6 curveball in the mid-70s and a hard, sweeping slider in the upper-70s. Also throws a mid-80s changeup. Missed two months in 2023 with a sprained UCL and his final three starts in 2024 due to a shoulder injury. Received Boston's lone Day 3 over-slot bonus in the 2024 draft class. Has much better stuff than the typical Day 3 draftee, but is inconsistent from outing to outing. Was viewed as a consensus top-200 draft prospect, but injury history likely and inconsistency pushed him out of the draft's first 10 rounds. Has the arsenal to start but would need to significantly improve control. More likely suited for a bullpen role and could be a late-inning arm if he can improve command and control. 49. Carlson Profiles best in a bullpen role due to primarily relying on two pitches and effort in delivery. Fastball/changeup combination can play when he is commanding them. Needs to find consistency, but has some upside given how good his changeup was at missing bats as an amateur. 50. Ingrassia Pure relief prospect, but has a deceptive delivery and three-pitch mix with confidence in all three offerings. Solid feel on the mound and will pitch backwards at times. All pitches can miss bats even though his velocity is average at best. 58. Rogers Potential left-handed reliever. Ceiling of a multi-inning bridge arm. Fastball and changeup are intriguing, but improving his command and control and developing consistency with his secondary pitches are keys for him to reach his potential. Not overpowering, so will have to locate. Undersized and his stuff and command tend to degrade as the game goes on. Stuff grades out well analytically and is appealing for model-driven teams. 60. M Duffy Solid pitchability type with some intriguing pitch characteristics. Fastball is on the light side, but commands it well and shows some carry up. Has the type of changeup that could carry him to at least the high minors. Safer pick with upside if he can add some velocity or show the ability to consistently miss bats in pro ball.