moonslav59

One aspect of our roster construction that may not have gotten much talk is that beyond the LHB unbalanced nature of our roster, our RHBs have surprisingly even or reverse splits. That is nice, when we face RHPs, but we lack the big bats vs LHPs, especially with Ref moving on. RHB splits (v R/vL) in 2025 (and career) .767/.863 Contreras (.791/.871) significant splits but pretty good v R .743/.734 Story (.778/.930) Career show significant splits. .720/.679 Rafaela (.701/.642) Significant reverse splits .723/.732 Narvaez (.724/.712) Career reverse splits .722/.717 Durbin - Minor reverse splits

Gallen has a shot at improving his value, and next winter, there will be no QO penalty.

I'm not sure he ever becomes a decent pen arm- maybe not even at AAA. I think others have a better shot at making the majors before he does.

He just signed a MLB deal with SDP at min wage.

Inserting a RHB like Romy or Durbin into the top 4 could solve this problem, but the issue is having 2 RHBs in the top 4 per Cora's wishes vs RHPs, too. If he could live with just 1, and have a RHB up 5th, the issue could also be solved. (Story has historically, pretty even splits.) Numbers vs RHPs in 2025: ('24-'25) .903 Anthony L .852 Duran L (.882) .808 Abreu L (.817) These 3 should be in the top 4 v RH'd SP'ers. .797 Eaton L .767 Contreras R (.794) Maybe the only RHB deserving of top 4. .743 Story R (.751) .751 is not horrible but not good for top 4. .739 Mayer L .732 Masa L (.796) Maybe he could earn a top 4 slot. .723 Narvaez R .722 Durbin R .720 Rafaela R (.703) .718 Romy R (.651) .658 Campbell R .477 Casas L (.693) If he ever comes around, he could be a top 4 bat vs RHPs by mid-season.

I fully recognize the hole we left wide open, this winter.

We hear a lot about our targeted increased focus on pitching, from the lowest levels of the minors to the top of the rotation at the big league level, and no doubt, that's for real, but we also have heard about not moving enough resources, both financial and via trade capital towards our everyday roster- from the top to the bottom of the system. It's hard to disagree, and I am also highly skeptical of this winter's approach that left us one big bat short of even their own stated goal, let alone most of ours. (I wanted two big bats and 1 big arm, and IMP we got 2 big arms and one 3/4 big bat in Contreras.) There is some context to be added. Having a weaker everyday roster on the farm is not ideal, but when you look at the ages and years of team control of our top 15-18 MLB or MLB ready/near ready players, it's easier to feel a little more secure about the here and now and the near & extended future. The OF: I think most baseball people see our OF as one of the best in MLB. We have 4 starting OF'ers that project to be top 5 on the team in fWAR: 3.5 Anthony. 3.2 Rafaela & 2.4 Abreu & Duran. It remains to be seen how K Campbell looks in LF, but he rates to be a more-than-decent #5 OF'er and is a RHB. I know many never want to see Masa in LF, again, but he does offer some emergency depth. Now, the best part: the years of control- 9 yrs Anthony, 6 Rafaela, 4 Abreu & 3 Duran. KC has 9 years, too! Catcher: Narvaez was a rookie and has already shown he is more than fine on defense. His hit tool still needs to be proven, but he got off to a very nice start. He had a decent minor league OBP and about 20 HR/650 PA pop. He's 26 and can still improve. Wong has been up and down, but was playing hurt in 2025. Narvaez has 5 years of control, and Wong has 3. Again, no need for farm infusion for 3 more years. The Infield: Here is where we may need help and was where many of us hoped we'd add some thump to the line-up, this winter, but we did add much better depth and improved the overall defense. Kiner-Falefa gives us great defensive depth at all non 1B infield slots. Durbin looks plus at 3B and 2B, and Mayer looks fine at 2B or 3B. Rodgers & Monasterio were a nice depth adds, too. Contreras at 1B offers us the stability we have been seeking there for many years. He looked okay on defense in 2025- his first season at 1B. While he's getting older, he could be better on D in 2026. The years of control are also pretty high, except for the one year from I K-F. Story & Contreras have 2 years with an option afterwards. Story may be at 2B by next season. All the others have 4+ years. So, basically every position is locked up for 3 years. We cans till improve on one of two over the next few years, but we could get by with next to zero farm infusion on the everyday side of the 26 and 40 man rosters. The DH has 2 years of Yoshida, but 3 years of Casas & Romy and 9 years of Campbell. We could also use Duran (3 yrs) at DH. The minor league depth is not all that exciting, some are far away from the majors: C: Thaiss/Seigler/Delay (Jh Garcia, Guzman/Heyman/Primera/J Rod/G Rod) 1B: Hickey, Llyod (Brannon. Ogando) 2B: Rodgers, McDonogh (Godbout, Ferguson, White) 3B: Romero, Capra (Alcanatar, Nunez) SS: Cheng, Sogard (Arias, Soto, Ramos) OF: Campbell, Ward, Eaton, Frazier/Sykes (Gonzales, YRod, Taylor, Azocar, M Martin, Rivas, Jackson, Silverio, Bleis, Castro, Fermin)

Hard to argue with this general approach. Assuming we can start Crochet, Suarez & Gray games 1-2-3 of every playoff series, I'd like our chances.

So brave!

Why wouldn't you want a top 5 batter in MLB batting higher up in the order? (No, not 4th, but maybe 2nd or 3rd.) Only 4 batters had a higher OPS and more PAs vs LHPs than Romy (.978) in 2025. It was likely not a fluke, as he hit over .850 in 2024. 2024-2025 v LHPs: (250+ PAs) 1.259 Judge .994 KMarte .986 Ramirez .951 Vladdy .949 Refsnyder .933 Schwarber .931 Romy Vs LHPs, I'd be fine with this... 1. L Anthony 2. R Romy 3. R Contreras (Maybe Durbin?) 4. L Abreu (Maybe Contreras?) 5. R Story (Abreu?) 6. R Durbin (Story?) 7. L Duran 8. R Narvaez 9. R Rafaela

We analyze our team to death, so those wild variances jump out at us all. I do think that other teams, including the Jays, Yanks, O's & Tigers have as many or more wild variances being discusses on their fan sites. I'm not sure how comforting that is, but one plus I see about the Sox within this context is our depth. If a few of the variances head south, I think we are better positioned to handle it than other top AL teams. I'll stack our 6-7-8-9 SP'ers up against any other team's. The Kiner-Falefa signing looks 100 times better after the Durbin trade. He seems to be a way better option than DHam/Sogard/Eaton- all by himself. I think Wong will do somewhere between 2024 and 2025, so we'll be fine at catcher depth. (Contreras can catch, too.) We finally have a 1Bman, so Casas is now viewed as "depth" (or DH.) Romy and Monasterio are fine depth pieces and we now have better options at AAA than we did just a few weeks ago: Rodgers, Seigler, Thaiss/Gasper & Cheng joining Campbell, Romero, Ward & Hickey. At the risk of repeating myself, we missed out on adding one more highest quality player, but the rest or the 26, 40 and beyond look very balanced, deep and promising.

If he had a higher OBP, his speed could be a larger asset batting 2nd. If his power was higher, and he didn't K so much, batting 3rd or 4th would be okay, if those around him were pluses. He is neither. Idealy, we'd alternate Story and Abreu in the 6 slot. I guess Abreu would be fine up 5th vs RHPs and 6th vs LHPs, but Story up 5th ve LHPs is too high for me, too. Good thing we can stick Romy in the top 5, somewhere, but pushing Story to 6th or 7th can only happen if other do well or better than expected.

It was rather telling that Mullins is 26 and still has not reached AAA. soxprospects.com has him beginning the season in AA as a starter, but their summary hints at the pen being his best shot... Potential up-and-down reliever. Ceiling of a seventh-inning reliever. Intriguing arm who could move quickly if moved into a pure relief role. Needs to tighten up his command and control, but fastball/slider combination has premium bat-missing ability. Fastball especially is extremely difficult to hit when he elevates it. Has pitches to get both right- and left-handed hitters out and the type of fastball teams look for. Is currently being developed as a starter, but delivery, command profile, and injury history point to him ending up in the bullpen eventually.

He paid the differed price! He must have thought he'd get more money and or more years. Both he and Cease picked the wrong year to have off-seasons, but Cease scored a pretty good contract, anyway. I'm glad we stayed away from both.

Gallen signs 1 year deal with AZ, $22M with $14M deferred.

True. Last February, nobody thought Tolle or Early would be added to the 40. Nobody heard of deLeon. Nobody expected we'd need to trade for D May. Nobody thought twice, when we traded Priester, until he started doing well and Newcomb flamed out as a starter. I think we should be deep enough, but I see 9, and we often go to 10 or more, and that's not even counting opener games. #SP'er per season (Non openers) 14 in 2025 (3 by opener Bernardino) 10 in 2024 (not counting 4 by Whitlock, 3 by Kelly & 3 by Bernardino) 9 in 2023 but 6 by Bernardino and 9 by 7 "openers" 11 in 2022 (3 by A Davis) 10 in 2021 (all but 3 starts by 7 starters)

How many teams have 7-8-9's like these? #10 is maybe Bennett>Uberstine or some surprise. Maybe we start Kutter or Oviedo in the pen. I still think that Sandoval will be the #5, if he looks okay in ST'ing, but that is one big IF.

A peach?

I went into this winter hoping we'd focus more on quality over quantity, which was the team approach for far too long. I think we may have shortened the rotation depth a little bit, but did a great job improving the quality from the 2 slot down to maybe #7, 8 or 9 from the 2025 depth chart. That '25 list was pretty nice, and we ended up using all of them plus DMay, de Leon plus Tolle & Early- at least the ones who were not on the IL all year (Kutter & Sandoval) or for much of it (Houck & Dobbins.) On the everyday side of the roster, my wish list was for two big bats- one at 1B and one at 2B or 3B. While Contreras looks like a very good get, I don't really view him a true "big bat," so I really wanted the second one to be better than him. Durbin is not that guy. I still like the trade, but we fell short of my hopes. We didn't even really get one true big bat. (KMarte & Alonso were my top picks, but Schwarber would certainly have counted as a legit big bat. I was not all that high on Bregman, especially at that money, as a "big bat, and felt the same about Bichette.) I also did not expect the continuation of adding so much decent starters and depth over higher quality talent. We added Contreras, Durbin Kiner Falefa, Monasterio, Seigler to replace Bregman, N lowe & DHam. It was sort of like 3 for 5. IMO, we went the wrong direction in this sense on the infield. The total AAV for Contreras plus Kiner Falefa is almost what Bregman got. The total AAV of Sonny Gray plus Kiner Falefa is about the same as Bregman's. Granted, these are shorter term vs Breggie's longer deal with a NTC, but you get where I'm going with this. Once again, on the everyday side of the ledger, we went quantity over quality. On pitching we did the right thing. Quality over quantity.

Much of our SP'ewr depth traded away were traded for pitching or were prospects that would not be ready for 2026, anyway. Fitts and Clarke was depth for a top 5 SP'er. Travieso (& Jh Gracia) was a far-away SP for a top 5-6 SP'er on the team. Perales for Bennett was pretty much sideways, and maybe one could argue Perales is closer to MLB ready, but he's also closer to the IL than Bennett. Dobbins, Fajardo & Aita was one of two trades that gave up depth for an everyday player, but only Dobbins was ML ready. He was also returning from an injury. Harrison, Drohan (& DHam) for Durbin & infield depth was the other, but many had Harrison listed pretty far down the SP'er depth list and felt he was blocking Tolle & Early. (I thought he'd be in the pen for 2026.) So, compare 2025 to what MVP presented: Sure, but they already have pretty ridiculous depth. 1. Crochet = Crochet 2. Suarez > Houck 3. Gray> Buehler 4. Bello = Bello 5. Sandoval < Giolito 6. Oviedo => Fitts 7. Crawford = Crawford 8. Early > Newcomb 9. Tolle <?> Dobbins 10. Uberstine <?> Priester/Drohan/Fulmer

Haven't heard any talk of the Sox and Wilson.

Some wild cards in the Red Sox 2026 season will be... Kutter Crawford: After a very promising 2023 season that saw Crawford put up a 3.83 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, he took a step back in '24, despite leading the team in IP. The hope is he can regain the same stuff Merloni has been raving about all winter. Patrick Sandoval: You have to go back a bit farther than Crawford's timeline to find the time when Sandoval looked pretty sharp. Over 41 GS from '21-'22 he put up a 3.17 ERA/3.44 FIP/1.29 WHIP. He's done nothing in the last 3 years to show any signed he can pitch like that again, but that's what makes him a wild card. Justin Slaten: This guy doesn't seem to get the talk he maybe deserves. In his first two seasons in MLB, he has a 3.43 ERA but a 3.02 FIP and 1.04 WHIP. He got hurt, last season and saw his K/9 got from 9.4 to 6.6, so the doubts linger. He's got some nasty stuff. Let's hope he finds it, again. Tristan Casas: To me, this guy could be the answer to all our worries about the offense, and no, he does not need to have a career year. He just needs to stay healthy and repeat what he did from '23 to '24. He just turned 26, but is coming off major knee surgery and may not be ready until May or so. From '23-'24 he had a 127 OPS+ (.838 OPS.) Projected from thos 745 PAs to 650, this would be his season line: .256 33 86, with a nifty .357 OBP and .480 SLG. Marcelo Mayer: This highly touted top 4 draft pick from 2021 has dealt with a series of injuries that make us all wonder if it's an issue or just some bad luck that could pass by. He has struggled vs LHPs, even in the minors, and has to work through that issue to avoid a 2025 platoon (with Romy.) He's only 23 and still has a lot of promise with his bat, and he looked pretty decent on defense at 3B, last year. Maybe he's the 2Bman we've been waiting for for about a decade. Maybe not. Caleb Durbin: I could have counted Narvaez, too, as both were rookies in 2025, but to me Caleb is more of the wild card- perhaps just because I haven't seen him play and his height has always been a concern. Hitting .721 your rookie year is nothing to apologize for, and he had an .858 OPS in AAA, but in the lower levels, he struggled to get above .755. Maybe playing half his games in Fenway will give him a boost. One could call Contreras, Gray, Story and Chapman wild cards due to their ages, Abreu, Rafaela & Duran wild cards due to unknowns brought about by past inconsistent hitting stretches, and Bello due to his uneven metrics from '24 to '25. Tolle, Early and Campbell could also be high impact players in 2026, if they get a long enough look.

Is Justin Wilson still a Sox option?

I think this is what Cora uses as a template. He may swap Abreu and Story vs lefty-righty.

1, Duran v R/ Romy v L 2. Anthony 3. Contreras 4. Abreu v R/Story v L 5. Story v R/Abreu v L 6. Durbin 7. Mayer v R/ Duran v L 8. Narvaez 9. Rafaela