moonslav59

I loved the Dugo trade, and I'm hopeful Fitts fills a role we need: an innings eating decent SP'er.

I do not think we have a set-in-stone number of pitching slots on the 40. I also think having guys on the 40 that won't sniff the bigs in 2025, like Wikelman might be as expendable or more than Jh Garica. Also, I'd take Jh Garcia over Gasper, Sogard and maybe even E Valdez, who we could probably trade for a single A prospect.

A Soto trade would remind me of the Manny signing. It would be about as bold as we can be. I'd consider it as more of a blockbuster move than the Price signing and the Sale trade. I think it would go a long way at repairing the hurt feelings from losing Betts, but nothing more than a ring would really help heal that open wound.

The left-handed tilt of the Sox 13 everyday players might be greatly changed by adding Campbell and a good splits in the minors, Anthony, plus the return of Story. Here are the worst splits vs LHPs in 2024 with 50+ PAs: .532 DHam (another guy, I've mentioned as trade bait, since we can add Campbell and or Grissom to the 26.) .532 Abreu (Ref platoon in '25?) .565 Yoshida (Ref platoon in '25?) .669 career begs for a platoon as a DH. .603 Rafaela (revers splits doesn't help) .665 Duran (gotta hope he improves.) .686 Devers (.739 career- not a concern) .748 Casas (.772 career- not a concern) Grissom is .727 career vs LHPs, so maybe a DHam-Grissom 2B platoon could work well.

Then, you woke up.

117 may have been his career BOS OPS, but as you pointed out on another thread, that includes his first years, as he struggled to adjust at a young age. I do not think those who were most upset at losing Bogey expected a 117 OPS+, year one, and knowing his SS D was not great, to be kind. His OPS+ since the 2017 year you mentioned: 135, 139, 128, 129 and 131 (2018-2022 w BOS.) Even if he bounces back to near 117 at age 32 and beyond, I still think that falls short of what the biggest Bogey fans envisioned. I could easily see him having an OPS+ at or below 117 for the remainder of his time with SD, combined.

I think some scrub team will take Garcia, so I'd protect him. While I like our roster depth, I think, even if we add 3-4 free agents, Jh garcia will still be better than out #39 or 40 on the roster. I know it sucks bruning 40 man roster slots on guys with no hopes of playing in the bigs, next year, but this guy is too good to risk losing, IMO. I'd rather trade or cut Wikelman. My guess is Mata, Gasper and Murphy will already be gone by opening day, but I'd also rather have Jh Garcia over Shugart, Horn, Sogard and maybe Penrod & Booser, too. We should have the roster space for Jh Garcia and Dobbins.

I've always liked Pivetta, but I think we can get better on a $20M AAV. The issue is years. I doubt JH is ready to give $20M x 4+ years, so maybe Pivetta is the best we can get for $20M/1. Hell, Gio got nearly that for 2 years.

I've been mentioning his name for months, as a trade candidate. His splits are awful, and we have Anthony as ML ready. One can argue Rafaela should be the odd man out, and his splits are pretty even, so he is no LHP killer, but I think Abreu brings back a better pitcher, and Rafaela's CF defense may be second to none. The fact that Duran plays excellent CF defense, and Anthony might, too, may make the point moot. I'd be happy with... LF: Abreu- Ref platoon CF: Duran RF: Anthony

Per MLB.com Five of Boston’s Top 30 Prospects must be protected to avoid inclusion in the Rule 5 Draft: OF Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 12), OF Allan Castro (No. 19), RHP Hunter Dobbins (No. 21), RHP Yordanny Monegro (No. 25) and 3B/1B Blaze Jordan (No. 26). The deadline for clubs to add players to their 40-man roster and protect them from the Rule 5 Draft is Nov. 19 at 6 p.m. ET.

I hate the Dodgers, but it was nice seeing the Yanks lose, and lose this way.

I know a lot of people think we could have gotten Bogey to sign for $160M/6, long ago. I'm not so sure, but for argument's sake, let's say we got him to sign for $180M/6 or $220M/8, how would Sox Nation be talking about that extension, right now, assuming he put up the same numbers as he did with the Padres? .747 OPS (106 OPS+ vs 117 with BOS and 133 from '18-'22) per 650: .276 17 60 These are Yoshi-like numbers. All the talk of how we messed up the Bogey extension MAY HAVE BEEN premature. (Emphasis on "MAY.")

Good point, and that was Bloom not Brez that chose to spend on the pen, and not the rotation. Bloom also likely chose to spend on Story and Yoshida over the rotation, but maybe JH directed him not to spend large and long on any SP'ers, except Bello, which was more long than large, anyway.

I don't think we choose to spend really big on a SP'er like Burnes or Fried. Neither seems to jump out at "the guy," to me, and even if JH & Co really like one, they always set a price that gets beat by someone else, anyway. If there is one thing these guys have consistently done, they never go above the price they set as reasonable. To me, the best bet for getting a #1 or #2, or whatever you want to call it, is by trade, but I'm doubtful we give up on the long term plan and farm building, this year. IMO, getting a young SP'er with 3-4 years of control is not like trading away the future to get. 4 years is about as much time as a prospect can give us, anyway. Giving up 3 prospects with 5-6 years of control is taking a big chunk out of the future promise, but it is just "promise." I've spoke of bottlenecks and duplicated values, a lot, and I realize much of this is based on the belief that most of our top prospects are going to pan out. It's just speculation, and we can see many examples of underachieving from our top farm prospects, in the past: the prospects DD traded jump to mind, but also guys like Lars Anderson, Casey Kelly, Michael Bowden, Kalish & Middy, Swihart and Cecchini, Owens and Groome. However, our everyday player roster is loaded with good to decent players or promising to very promising players, along with guys like EValdez, Gasper, Sogard, Hickey and others that still hold some remote hopes of being helpful. All these guys have 3 or more years of control: C: Wong 4, Teel 5+, Jo. Garcia 5+ (Brannon) 1B: Casas 4, Romy 4 (Ju Gonzalez) 2B: Campbell 5+, Grissom 5, DHam 5, Cespedes 5+ (Nunez) SS: Story 3-4, Mayer 5+, Arias & Romero 5+ (Cason) 3B: Devers 9, Meidroth 5+ (Nunez) LF: Abreu 4, Jh Garcia 5+, Ehrhard 5+ (Castro, Asencio) CF: Duran 4, Rafaela 7, Bleis 5+ (Fermin) RF: Anthony 5+, Montgomery 5+ (Yuten) DH: Yoshida 3, %+: B Gonzalez , Jordan, W Turner Our pitchers don't look all that great, but many of our best have 3+ Years, too: (Whitlock has 2.) 3: Houck 4: Crawford, Wink, Kelly 5+ Bello, Slaten, Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Guerrero, Weissert, Sandlin, Campbell & more

JH has shown he's willing to spend on good RP'ers (Jansen & Martin on 2 year deals.) I hope he does not consider Henriks and Fulmer as capable replacements to those two, but I do think we just might sign a top RP'er, this winter- maybe Scott or Estevez. Again, I'm not expecting big spending, but I don't consider this type signing as all that "big." I'm not sure we add any SP'ers, and the trend has been to add 4/5's, some with hopes of being a #3 type, and I'm going with my definitions, here ( a 3 is a 60-90 ranked SP'er, a 4 is a 90-120...) I'm thinking Nick Martinez or Flaherty might be the best we can expect. Maybe a trade for a younger and better one could happen, but I'm not convinced the philosophy or long term strategy will allow for that. Probably, the best we can expect is Scott, Matinez and maybe a trade of Abreu and DHam for another decent RP'er and a decent defensive catcher with 1 year left on his control. I'll be genuinely surprised if we spend more than this or trade for more than this.

To me, and ace is different from a #1. A number one, in the context of looking at one team, means your best pitcher, but your best pitcher might be a #4 or 5 on another team. For simplicity, I like to think a number 1 is a top 30 SP'er in MLB based on the recent year, recent 2-3 years and various stats and metrics. We all have our favorite stats/metrics, but to me, fWAR/bWAR, ERA-, OPS Against, xFIP and maybe WHIP matter the most. It's not an exact science. To and older pitcher, the last year may matter more than the last 3. To a 2-3 year pitcher, maybe the last year matters way more than the 3 year numbers. Some pitchers jump all over the rankings, when you switch the stat/metric. Some are top 20-30 on every list. I'd say those that are top 20 or so on every list, can probably be called an "ace." Take a guy like Houck: he was #14 in fWAR, this year among SP'ers with 70+ IP. The fact that we need to go to 70 IP to get a sample size of near 150 (30 teams x 5 SP'ers) is pretty telling. The 3 year sample size is 190 IP, and Houck places 60th. The recent one year sample makes Houck a clear #1 and maybe even an ace, but the 3 year sample puts him around a bottom #2 or top #3. I'd say he rates to be a solid #2, but with questions. Other pitchers have more questions and context needed.

Bogaerts gets a l ot of his value from positional points (SS) and hardly ever being hurt. The fWAR per 600 takes the injury aspect away. Here is a breakdown of value on fangraphs value page: Bogey: 1530 games 128 Batting -30 Fielding 26 Base Running 60 "Positional Vlaue" Chapman: 1022 games 94 Batting 49 Fielding 7 Base Running 15 Positional Value Take away positional value, since Bogey was a negative on defense, here is the "value" per game of Batting+Fielding+ Running: Bogey 0.120 (184/1530) Chapman 0.147 (150/1022) That's 23% more than Bogey

Long swings can be adjusted, but the encouraging part about his swing is the bat speed does not seem to be reduced by its longness.

I do think our second 4 (Monty, Arias, Cespedes and Garcia) could end up moving into the top group. Most likely 2-3 will now, but even those that don't, could still be useful players. I know my pink glasses are bigger than Elton John's, but I'm loving this farm. I know a lot has been said about the lack or quality pitching on the farm, but I'm hopeful that out of the couple dozen pitching prospects we have, maybe 3-4 might rise to the levels we need to reach glory. Perales looks like the real deal, but he has a major injury to comeback from. Fitts, Sandlin and Tolle are recognized as very promising pitchers, already. The rest seem more like longshots, but with so many of them, I'm thinking a couple or three might jump in the rankings, real soon: Valera, Ingrassia, Dobbins, Monegro, Cason, Guerrero Kelly, Penrod, E Rodriguez, Early, Mullins, Paez D Reyes, Neely, Wehunt, Clarke, Tygart, Carlson Sena, Kwiatkowski, Bonnin, G Jackson, Hoppe, Shugart Dean, Rogers, Troye, Liu, Webb, Sansone Ehrlicher, Judice, Aita, de la Cruz, Polanco, Y Ruiz Bastardo, Gambrell, Wikelman, I Coffey, Drohan, Mata This list is almost 50 pitchers long. Granted, some have less than a 1% chance to even sniff the Bigs, let alone do well, there. I get that, but I do think 24-36 have maybe a 5% or better chance, with some having a better than 33% chance. (Perales and Fitts might be 50-50. Sandlin, Tolle, Kelly & GUerrero might be near 40%.)

Maybe similar, but I think Jansen gets 2-3 years. I think we want a one year bridge to Teel. Now, if management does not want Wong catching as much, due to his awful defense. Will we trade Wong? I doubt it, but we have to think he's not a long term solution, unless he improves his defense, significantly and soon. Would we even want him as a 20-25% catcher? I'd prefer Higgy or Jansen, but I just don't think we give the years these guys want.

Youk was one of my faves. I'm a guy that loves OBP.

Your idea of a 4-5 makes it look like there are zero 2's and 3's. To say "at best" makes it even worse. It's like you see him as a 6th SP. How many pitchers are #1's? I'd say about 30. #2's? about 30 (one for each team) #3s? yup, 30 more. You are saying there are 90-120 better SP'ers than Flaherty? I'd say you are way off. Of the 125+ Pitchers with 120+ IP, Flaherty placed: 17th WHIP 22nd in FIP and ERA 24th in ERA- 29th i fWAR Can you name even 60 pitchers better than him? He's a #2, at worst. Okay, okay, 2024 was a fluke, you say: how about 2021 to 2024 (130+ pitchers with 300+ IP) Flaherty places... 63rd ERA and 73rd in FIP (about a #3) 64th ERA- (top #3) 77th in fWAR (about a #3) I'm fine thinking he's a good #3 with #2 upside. He's not a 4/5.

Sure. I'm thinking he'd be our #2. He might be the guy we can get for the budget.

He'd be a better SP signing than anyone since Nate.

This week... 1 ORE at Mich 2. GA at Florida 3 Penn St v Ohio St. 5 MIA v Duke 6 Tenn v KY 10 TEX A&M at So Carolina 11 IA St v TEX Tech 12 Clemson v Louisville 13 IN at MI St. 18 PITT at SMU