moonslav59

Indeed, and this on top of statements about the tax line not being an issue. It just gets worse on the BS. My point was that we do some replacement spending, but these short term and "pillow" deals are tiring me out. I'd rather we spend $26M on 2 guys for 5-6 years than $2-$10M on several one and dones. OK, we finally spent over $20M on an AAV (Bluehler at $21M and 1 year, of course,) the only one, except Story since who? JD? (Nate was technically a FA signing, but I count him as an extension, and not new blood.)

We will need Campbell and or Anthony to make a significant impact. We also have almost all of our players in pre-prime mode, so we could expect improvement from returning players. The return of Story and Casas (also Devers & Yoshida) to possible full seasons could make a difference, but someone is bound to get hurt. Nobody is post prime on O, except our short-side. platoon DH: Ref at 33. Prime: 31 Yoshida, 28 Wong Just entering Prime: 27 Devers, Duran, Romy Pre-Prime: 24 Casas, 25 Abreu, 23 Rafaela & Grissom, 26 DHam It would be nice to have a big power RHB, but we might end up better than 2024, despite losing O'Neill. Maybe this is the line-up by mid-season: 1. L Duran L (LF) 2. R Campbell (2B) 3. L Casas (1B) 4. L Devers (3B) 5. R Story (SS) 6. L Abreu RF/L Anthony RF 7. L Anthony CF/ R Rafaela CF 8. L Yoshida/ R Refsnyder DH 9. R Wong/ R Narvaez C This could work out very well! (Or not.)

I'd really like to know, for sure, if every FA were lost out on was because JH & Co said no, or if Brez just decided no, on his won, on one or two. My guess is JH has ended all of them, but maybe not. The years thing is also something that may be an issue, but Brez did spend over $52M this winter ($21M Buehler, $10.75M/1 Chapman, $18.25M/2 Sandoval, $2.25M Wilson.) It's $62M if you count Hendriks from last year. Only Sandoval is on the books for 2026, so the AAV for 2025 is $43M w/o Hendriks or $48M counting him.

So, nobody holds the HR record, because MLB is far from over. I'm not saying we won anything. I even pointed out we can be passed, but as of now, we hold the record.

Here is a look at our top fWAR players by season since 2020, and how acquired: (No label= drafted or IFA) 1.3 fWAR + listed 6.7 Duran '24, 6.0 Bogey '22, 5.0 Devers '22, 4.2 Devers '21, 4.1 Bogey '21, 4.1 Devers '24, 3.9 Houck '24, 3.4 Devers '23, 3.1 Abreu '24, 2.5 Duran '23, 2.4 Crawford '23, 2.3 Houck '21, 2.0 Bello '24, 1.9 Crawford '24, 1.7 Vaz, '22 & Casas '23, 1.6 Bogey '20 & Bello '23, , 1.5 JBJ '20, 1.3 Vaz '20, Bello '22, Houck '23 & Barnes '21 FA: 5.7 Nate '21, 3.7 Kike '21, 2.7 JD '21, 2.6 Renfroe '21, 2.5 Story '22, 1.8 Hill '22, Martin '23 & Wacha '22 & Duvall '23, 1.4 Jansen '24 & JD '22 Waivers: 1.8 Schreiber '22 Rule 5: 1.6 Whitlock '21, 1.4 Whitlock '22 Trade: 3.9 ERod '21, 2.5 O'Neill '24, 2.3 Pivetta 2.1 Sale '23, 2.0 Pivetta '24, '21, 1.9 Pivetta '23 & Verdugo, '21, 1.7 DHam '24, 1.6 Verdugo '20, 1.5 Pivetta '22, 1.5 Slaten '24, 1.4 Verdugo '23, 1.3 McGuire '22 That FA group is pretty freaking bad, when you total all the money spent on FAs.

I doubt Burnes was ever a "plan." Fried might have been, until the bidding went out of JH's range.

Agreed, and Campbell can play 3B, so no biggie, but he was a deserving #8 prospect.

OK, if you count a century win total as a record, then we hold one, for now.

Of course to all, but a record is a record until broken. It is very likely a team will win more than 4 WS in this century, and it may not be BOS.

It's not a record? Nobody else has more, and any record can still be topped.

We are still over $30M under the first tax line, and it was mentioned that we were able to go over line one, this year. I know we don't have to spend big just for the sake of spending, but we still have 2-3 major needs to be filled and precious little FA fits remain. In theory, we should have $30M-$50M to spend. Some of the FAs that were signed by other teams seemed to want to play for those teams, even at lower contract cost, so there was not much we could do about that. It seems Cohen was not going to be outbid on Soto, and now the reported $700M offer by the Sox is being disputed. As much as the Price contract stands a stark warning on large and long contracts, I think we need(ed) to bite the bullet, choose one guy that fits the best, and just refuse to be outbid, unless the bidding just gets totally absurd. I do not see many that fit the "totally absurd" category, but Soto and maybe a couple others do or come close. Here are some signed deals that I think we not absurd overpays, knowing full well, some of these guys would not have signed with BOS, even if we offered significantly more: $60M/3 Kikuchi (looks like a steal, now.) $8.5M/1 Jansen (We couldn't go $17M/2, knowing Teel was to be traded?) $12M/2 d'Arnaud (We still need a catcher) $13.5M/2 Higgy (not sure he'd be worth $14+M/2, but we need a catcher who can catch.) $11.5M/2 Carson Kelly (See d'Arnaud, Jansen and Higgy above) $75M/2 Manaea (NYM might have bid higher) & Nate (TX native) $210M/6 Burnes (wanted AZ) $60M/3 Walker (would then trade Casas for pitching) $218M/8 Fried (borderline absurd money & years) $66M/3 Teoscar (wanted LAD)

Ok, how about a MLB record of 4 rings in the 21st Century?

Probably true, and trades will mean depleting our future assets. We already lost 3 of our top 8 prospects to obtain a 2 year SP'er. Talk about shrinking the window. (Unless we extend Crochet.)

Most wins by a Sox team. (108 vs 105 in 1912.) Only time in Red Sox history we won 3 straight division crowns. Is two enough?

I realize SEA is looking to save more money than just $6M for '2026 and 2027 ($24M Castillo- $18M Yoshida,) but it is still something, Saving $30M in 2025 is a hug savings that can be applied to future years. It's $6M in 2025 more than just dumping Castillo's full salary on someone without including Haniger, as you suggest. it's over $21M more for 2025 for Castillo+Haniger vs Yoshida. I think the money part is okay for SEA. I'm not sure they like or want Rafaela, so that part could be changed, which would add more saving to SEA (and cost to BOS.)

It's looking that way. I'm not a Bregman fan, at all, and it has nothing to do with cheating. His .795 OPS over the last 5 years. He's really good on D at 3B, and that would help the whole staff. I'm pretty confident Devers could upgrade the 1B defense, but if not, he and Casas can share DH duty when not playing 1B. Neither would need days off for rest, so we could keep both bats in the lineup over 160 games, if they can both stay healthy. He may be the best we can do. It's sad that it has come down to hoping we get the best of the rest.

The best guys still out there that could make an impact are... Bregman (only if they moves Devers to a 1B/DH share with casas.) Scott (I seriously doubt we even make a piddly-ass offer.) Santander (We'd have to trade Rafaela and or Abreu for a pitcher or catcher or both to make sense.) Hoffman (might be our best hope for actually winning an auction on someone good.) Lesser add-ons: Estevez, Kittredge or Sewald Or Trade for Arenado, Castillo/Woo/Miller or Pablo Lopez or _____? Trade for a catcher or big RHB (Sean Murphy could fill both needs.)

SFG was also going to lose more draft picks and I think bonus money, if the signed another QO guys.

I still maintain there is enough matching pieces to figure out some sort of SEA-BOS trade. I fully understand SEA's reluctance to trade Woo or Miller for just Casas. I also understand why they don't want Yoshida as part of a Castillo deal, but we could add money, or take on Haniger or Garver's contract to further the savings for SEA. If Garver was not so bad on defense at Catcher, he'd be a great fit. I do think his bat has bounce-back potential, but he does turn 34, soon. Perhaps he is toast. Maybe Haniger makes more sense, but we do have Anthony knocking on the CF/RF door, and RHB Campbell can play OF, too. I think just adding enough money might be what is needed. I doubt SEA wants DHam or Winckowski, but maybe adding Fitts or Priester could be enough. Could this get it done? Casas (pre-arb then 3 ARBs) Rafaela ($48M/7) & Yoshida ($56M/3) for Castillo ($72M/3), Haniger ($15.5M/1) and Garver ($12.5M/1) SEA saves a lot, year one (like $30M), then it's about even for 2 years. BOS sees the AAV like this: $24M in '25($48M-$24), Save $2M in '26 and '27 ($$24.3M-21.6), then save Rafaela's contract for 4 years ($6.3M) I think Rafaela sweetens the pot for SEA by enough, and taking on Haniger and Garver makes the money work for SEA. BOS might be getting two total duds in Haniger and Garver, but each are in their last year of control. The real worry for BOS is castillo's apparent decline and age (32-34 for contract years plus vesting option.) I'm not so sure this works for BOS. Is Castillo really going to do much better than Gio/Craw in '25 and Craw/Fitts/Priester in '26 and '27? Is the gain worth losing Casas? Do we then need to sign Bregman, so Devers moves to 1B? We'd also lose the two guys best suited for DH, but that can be easily covered by platooning Refsnyder with Haniger or Garver. Maybe I have too much time on my hands, too. I'd rather we work out a deal for Miller or Woo, but I'm thinking maybe they are not as good as I once thought they were.

I thought he might get $240/7 or $250M/8. We had tax room for a $30M AAV, and maybe we could have traded Crawford and others for a 2 of .... RHB, top RP or catcher.

Burnes to AZ for about what what MLBR projected: $210M/6. (They projected $200M/7. He was asking for $245M+) $35M a year is a massive amount for an AAV. He just turned 30, so this deal ends at a reasonable 35 years old. I get the risk involved with this type of deal vs $21M/1 for Buehler. It's not an easy choice to make, even if being cheap was not part of the decision.

Here is my stab in the dark... 2. Burnes $240M/8- Toronto 3. Bregman $200M/8- NYY 7. Alonso $130M/5- SEA 8. Flaherty $120M/5- SFG 9. Santander $95M/5- HOU 14. Scott $70M/5- BAL *18. Hoffman $50M/4- NYM *22. Estevez $30M/3- BOS *28. Pivetta $63M/3 (MLBR has $21M/1) TEX 16. Profar $50M/3 LAA 25. Heaney $25M/2- PHI 26. H Kim $25M/3- MIL 31. Quintana $22M/2- KCR

Next contract time, they need to do something about the differed money lowering the AAV. The Dodgers are already making a mockery out of the lux tax rules, as it is. They say the Teoscare signing at $63M/3 will cost them $40M in taxes, which shows you just how much they can outbid anyone for anyone they want, except maybe Cohen, but really, the tax is 110%. They should have to pay $67M tax not $40M. Maybe then, they might not do it.

Didn't seem that way, but all the talk was the Dodgers were "far apart." They also have to pay 110% tax on the deal. Hard to compete with that.

I think his name might only come up, when taking back a really big contract.