moonslav59

While I agree, in a general sense, that versatility is an asset, our 3B defense is so horrendous, there would probably never be a situation where Bregman would be a better upgrade anywhere but 3B. I realize that if the logjam at 1B & DH by Devers, Casas and Yoshida cannot be solved via trade or deciding to play Yoshida in LF, then the "upgrade" in 3B defense could be at least partially offset by a loss on offense by benching Yoshida, but who would you sit to bat Yoshida? His bat is better than Rafaela's. His bat vs LHPs is better than Abreus and vs RHPs over Refsnyder, but I'm not seeing a big loss, except financially, which to JH & Co. means everything. I'm wondering just how desperate STL will get to trade Arenado. Waiting might bring the cost down. If his offense is declined so much that his age means we have to expect it to get even worse. How much is a glove only 3Bman worth? I'm huge on defense, but even I can't stomach a 3Bman that might hit .700 in '25 and get worse over the next two years, even if the cost is near min wage. I gotta think Campbell or Mayer can play 3B better than Devers and hit .700. Why trad enaything and add any salary for Arenado? I think I've come full circle on Arenado. MVP led led me to the coming to Jesus moment. Only a Yoshida-Arenado trade makes any sense to me, but it doesn't to STL, so NO GO. (Now, sit back and watch it happen.)

If TOR is the only team giving 7-8 years, Bregman will likely choose them. Maybe he takes a front-end loaded contract with an opt out after 1-2 years. Coming to BOS and having a great year could really build up his value.

We could just roll the dice on Story, Campbell & Mayer to fill the 2B, SS and 3B slots with DHam, Grissom & Romy as depth (all with options.) Figure out how to play Devers, Casas and Yoshida at 1B & DH, or trade one. OF is more than set with Duran, Anthony and an Abreu-Rafaela rotating positions on a platoon. Maybe Narvaez can be the defensive catcher we need. Hopefully he hits better than Leon. Of course, I'm oversimplifying things and assuming all 3 top prospects win a FT job and deserve to keep it. That is unlikely. The problem we have, now is, we don't know which one(s) will work out for us.

I thought so, too, but I keep reading that "insiders say DET and TOR" are the frontrunners. If TOR knows they will be losing Vlad, maybe they think this will be a semi-preemptive strike.

Depending on further additions and how some guys look in ST'ing, I think there is only a chance that one from Anthony or Campbell starts the season in MLB. Mayer might, if Story is on an extended IL stint. The other(s) will be held back to gain the year of service. I will not be a all surprised if none of the top 3 are on the 40 or 26 on opening day. Barring injuries, we have a solid 9, right now. One from Romy, Grissom or DHam may start in AAA, even if Campbell does not make the roster. With O'Neill gone, maybe Anthony has the better chance at making the 26. We do not want Abreu playing vs LHPs, so I see Anthony playing RF v LHPs and CF v RHPs as the most likely situation, if any.

Exactly, but that is reactionary decision making, not proactive and well-thought out planning.

This is exactly how I see it, but it is essential to put a lot of effort into identifying exactly the player you want and then "do what it takes," unless it goes beyond absurd. I just can't see, in any way, shape or form, why Bregman would fit that model. He'd be a reactionary signing done to placate angry fans or to give the season ticket holders and media something to get jacked up over and maybe forget all the shenanigans this FO has put us through for year. While I do think Bregman would help the team in numerous ways, he's not the guy I'd give 6-7 years to. To me, that leaves Scott as the only remaining major impact signing left on the boards that fits a clear need for the Sox.

I can't see him taking only 3 or 4 years. I guess it depends on what TOR or DET is offering. I've been hot and cold on Bregman, mostly because he's the last shiny object left, and my pet peeve is defense. He is not the "guy" to choose as the biggest FA signing since Price. I was not upset with the Story signing, at the time, but I had the same feeling about him. Why pick him as the biggest signing in 5 years?

Rafaela in AAA or traded?

To me, we still need a lockdown closer to be a serious contender. I do not think the Sox FO agrees. At best, they add a decent RP'er like Minter. We could really use a catcher that is a plus on D. I think the FO may think Narvaez fills that role, and Zavala is a good non 40 man roster depth. I do think the FO is still seeking a way to add a RHB to the line-up, and might be looking at trading Abreu, DHam or both to clear room for the incoming player and or Campbell and Anthony. I do not think the FO views corner IF defense as something worth upsetting Devers over. The talk of getting Bregman to play 2B or Arenado to play 1B makes me feel sick to my stomach. If I had to predict who we add, it might be Grichuk and Minter (maybe Estevez.) Maybe by adding Grichuk, we trade Abreu for a catcher or RP'er or both.

Agreed. Just get it done. I also think the Crochet trade was a waste, if we don't extend him and a double waste, if we punt for the first of his 2 years, here.

You've scared the living bejesus out of me on Arenado! On Bregman, he just does not seem like "that guy" we could say, this is the guy we really want and need and let's get him, even if we grossly over pay. He and Scott might be the best two guys left on the FA market, in terms of helping us the most in 2025, but that should not be the reason we sign Bregman.

One could argue his 2023 was the best of his career. Some of his earlier years were not the apple of my eye, but yes, having someone like him through hi prime would have been nice. He started in the bigs at age 28 and pitched very little. He went to Japan at ages 30-31. 2018 was his first full season in MLB. He had 6 seasons with over 40 IP: here they are: '16 42 IP 4.54 ERA/1.22 WHIP '19 56 IP 3.40/1.02 '21 43 IP 3.95/1.27 '22 56 IP 3.05/0.98 '23 51 IP 1.05/1.03 '24 44 IP 3.45/1.23 It looks like getting him one year earlier would have been the best we could have hoped for.

If we don't add anymore outside contracts, it might make sense to sign extensions, now, that include 2025, so the tax number would be lower for all years. Take Crochet: he might make $3-4M in arb for 2025 (MLBTR has $3M) and more in his last year (maybe $10-20M.) Let's say he would make $24M/2 for 2025 and 2026, and an extension was agreed upon at $28M x 4 years from 2027-2030 ($112/4). Our AAV could be $4M, $20M then $28M for the next 4 years, if it's structure to begin in 2027. Or, we could start it in 2025 as a contract of $136/6 (the same as the other two combined,) but the AAV would be evened out (More in 2025 & 2026, but less afterwards.) Te tax hit would be $22.7 x 6. If we stay under with that total, we could, in theory, have more to spend starting in 2027.

Unless he can catch 60-70% of the games, I'm not sure it works, especially if we ever get a real 3Bman and push Devers to 1B/DH. If we can somehow include Yoshida in a trade for Contreras or Arenado & Contreras, I'm listening.

To be honest, I know we have zero chance, so as long as the Yanks don't get him, I don't really care. It would be nice, if players started wanting to play for the Sox, again. I think we still are held in high regard by some Latin American nations, but I'm not even sure that is true anymore.

He may end up doing okay as a hitter, over the next 3 years... not the power you normally want from a DH, but he likely is worth more than zero. The issue is, we have at least 4 guys best suited to DH: Yoshida, Refsnyder, Casas and Devers. Our corner IF defense sucks, and our catcher defense sucks. We can win it all without fixing those positions, but it makes it harder. To me, it is not our top priority: getting a lockdown closer is. Catcher defense is probably my number two, RHB #3 and 3B defense #4. 1B defense might be #6 behind adding another RP'er. Getting Bregman or Arenado checks two bowes out of our top 4 needs. The cost of Bregman and Arenado are too high, and I'm not so sure their bats totally fill the need of a RHB with some power, but I think Fenway would treat bth very nicely. If the idea is to use the money we have left to extend Crochet and or a top prospect or two and not on Bregman or Arenado, I could see the reasoning for avoiding both. Maybe there is another option, via trade, that works better. I still think we will trade Abreu as a way to "balance" the line-up.

Three years in a row, we went into the season knowing this, and just letting it continue. We did and still do have other areas of need and higher need, and the Yoshida signing and his inability to play LF really complicates any plan to keep Casas and Devers in the line-up along with Yoshida, without keeping Devers at 3B and Casas at 1B. I'd hate to see Yoshida bak in LF, even on a platoon with Ref or Duran, who would play CF, when not in LF, but keeping Devers at 3B is worse, IMO.

I we can include Yoshida in the deal, even if we pay 50-75% of his remaining contract, I'd do everything I can to make a deal happen. I do NOT make this deal, unless Arenado plays FT 3B. I'm not sure STL wants Yoshida, since the reason they are trading Arenado is to dump salary not exchange ones. However, there was talk they'd consider paying part of his deal, so taking on part of Yoshida's deal might be possible. How much they take on is likely tied to who we give back. While Rafaela's $48M/7 remaining contract is not much, the Sox might like to shed the $6.25M tax line hit by including him in the deal. Is that enough? Rafaela and Yoshida (plus $10M a year off his $18M deal) for Arenado. Word is the actual cost of Arenado, after the COL payments and deferments, is about $60M/3. Right now, we owe $54M/3 on Yoshida, so this deal would cost us about $90M/3 for Arenado minus the cost of Rafaela's $48M/7.

The thing is, Casas is just plain awful on D. It's really not hard to be better. If Devers turns out to be about the same, we just let them share time at DH and 1B. If Devers turns out worse, we just DH Devers and play Casas at 1B, unless he needs a day off.

It doesn't matter if he's better or worse than Slaten or Chapman, only that he fills a need and is better than the guy he replaces. I'm thinking AJ will likely be better than half the guys in our 8 man pen. Maybe not Chapman, Slaten and possibly Hendriks and Whitlock, when healthy.

Okay, the Willson idea was a bad one. What other team has a decent catcher they can trade away?

The penny pinching is something that would worry a guy like Sasaki, in terms of feeling how committed a team is to winning.

I could be wrong, but my gut says Devers would be better, after an adjustment period.

I think the extra year matters to JH & Co, and I can see the reasoning for a team looking to save pennies.