moonslav59

Yes, if healthy, and if we don't have to go too far beyond starter number 6 or 7. We still have piss-poor corner IF defense and will need 140+ games from Story at SS to help these pitchers not need to get 4 outs a few times a game. We still need a big RHB or the kids to come through. We do have the okay to expect improvement from so many players still pre-prime, too. We still need a catcher, unless we like the excellent defense from Narvaez and are willing to maybe have a sub .600 batter to get it. It may come down to our pen, which has a lot of promising pieces, some who were great, years ago, some who looked pretty good, recently and some young ones who were good, okay or shaky in 2024, but still have "the stuff" to not give up on. One major stumbling block might be that we have to cycle through 6-10 RP'ers to find the mix that works (if we ever do.) Pen depth is a very nice thing to have, but so is having a bonafide closer. Every ring year had one, although Uehara was not known to be one that prior winter. Whitlock could be the savior, as could Hendriks, Chapman or even Slaten, but none reek of being "the sure thing." I don't want to bring up the "Closer by committee" fiasco, but I just did. Hendriks, Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten are the sure 4, if healthy and no significant age-related declines. Wink & Wilson probably have a slot reserved for them, unless they meltdown. The other two are up for grabs between 10+ guys (not counting starters Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Fulmer & Dobbins): Guerrero, Adams, Bernardino, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, Shugart, Campbell, Mata, Mills and maybe, eventually, some AA arms like Sandlin, Early, Hoppe & Troye. There is reason to be hopeful: I don't want to sound like the Grinch, but these rosters built on hopes are wearing me out.

I've never liked the taste of Kool-Aid, anyway, but I'm not taking even a sip. Maybe, my mood will change. Merry Christmas, everyone! Happy Holidays to those who do not celebrate Xmas.

Crochet makes it significantly better, despite some worries about getting near 170-180+ IP. Buehler is a huge question marks with a higher ceiling than the one he will replace, but with way less IP expectations/predictions. Gio may or may not be better than whoever he replaces, and the IP is just as speculative. The rotation looks better and should be better. The pen looks about equal, at best, to me- also with many question marks. Our catching has not improved. We still need a big RHB. Our defense should improve, if players come back from injuries and then stay healthy, but we said the exact same thing the last 2 winters. Our corner IF did not improve. Unless Naravaez starts 50_ games, our catching D has not improved. There is still time to fix the remaining weak areas, but my expectations are about as low as they have been in a long time.

a self-imposed curse.

Word is, the Dodgers are too far away in price, so I'm not sure they are in the bidding, anymore, but I seriously doubt we get TH or Hoffman. Santander wants 5 years: nope. Scott is too expensive for JH. I hope I eat my words, but this looks so much more like the same ole-same ole, that I'm still a non believer. It was nice to get Crochet. We filled one of 5 needs and applied bandaids to gushing wounds in the other 4 areas of need (pen, RHB, catcher and corner IF D.)

Yup, more of the same but maybe in overdrive.

I'm supposed to be happy when we fall short on top players? Yes, I moan and will keep moaning when we sign projects instead of top quality and dependable players. I think Fried got the same AAV as Buehler + Sandoval, so excuse me, if I'm not thrilled about that. I love the Crochet trade, but we had 4-5 major holes to fill and we filled one. No Catcher. No improved defense. No RHBP. No improved pen. I'm glad your Christmas will be merry.

Hendriks 3.9 in 2019 (2.7 in 2021) Chapman 3.2 plus 3 seasons between 2.5 and 2.7) We are living in the past with these guys.

c) None had more than 146 IP in 2024. Crochet: Only pitched over 65 IP once from 2018 (college) to 2024 and never over 146 (2024.) Buehler: 3 season not going over 76 IP Sandoval: never gone over 149 IP Gio: 185 in 2023, but a bad ERA that season (4.88)

I hope I'm wrong, but that seems like a pipedream. After each signing of someone we needed, we look to the next best guy(s) and say, "just go get 'em." Why will it be different, this time? Yes, a gree it can be, but I am so far from expecting it, it's not close to being funny.

Pivetta was about as dependable as can be. He was never great, but at times pitched like a decent #2 or #3 SP'er (top 45-75 out of 150 MLB SP'ers.) That is not great, but when you look at the best pitchers on the Sox, since 2019, nobody cam close to being as good AND dependable. Nate came closest, and he started only 73 out of a possible 111 starts from 2019-2022. That's just under making 2 out of every 3 starts. While Pivetta missed some starts due to a one time demotion from the rotation, which is far from a feather in his cap, he hardly missed any starts due to injury. The guy had a 103 ERA+ for the Sox and took the ball every 5 days. While Buehler's 122 ERA+, since 2020 is significantly better than Nick's 103, he made 69 starts out of a possible 111. That's missing 38% of his starts. He has an 83 ERA+ in his last 28 GS. Why do we seem to be so confident he will do better in his next 28 starts? Sure, better than an 83 ERA+ seems like good projection, but can we really be that certain he will pitch to Pivetta's 103 ERA+ in 2024? I do readily admit he has a better chance to hit a 120 ERA+ than Pivetta does in 2024, but why should we expect that or even think he's an odds on favorite to even hit 110? (BTW, Pivetta hit 113 in 2023 and is at 108 from 2023-2024.)

The rotation is better, and the rotation depth is, too. If Buehler and Sandoval can cobble together 25-35 starts, it may be significantly better, but that is a big hope- not just on the GS and IP front, but on the "will they be good" front, as well. We also cannot see any regression from Houck and Bello, and we have to hope Gio can pitch like he did in 2021. (One could argue the first half of '23, I guess.) The pen may be slightly better, but again, we are relying on a lot of hope: Whitlock's health, a return of Hendriks, Slaten not regressing, and an aged Chapman holding it together for one more year. We do have better extended pen depth that 2024, and we will likely need it, again. The offense will rely on the kids to give a boost, or healthy seasons from Story and Casas. Again, no room for regression from Abreu, Rafaela or anyone else- just to stay even with the loss of O'Neill. We still have issue vs lefties. Our defense can be much better, if Story stays healthy, but that seems like a broken and scratched record. If Narvaez is the back-up catcher, we should be better on D, there, if he plays 60+ games. Just by not playing Rafaela and DHam at SS can help, even if Story is on the IL. I'm not seeing a significant improvement. There is still time to add a RHB (Teoscar,) a solid RP'er (Scott, Hoffman or Estevez) or a better catcher than Wong-Narvaez, but why should we expect that to happen? We may choose to get to the tax line by extending Crochet and maybe others.

Respectfully, I think you have. We are not going to sign Teoscar and good pen arm... not even Estevez. Chapman+ Estevez + Wilson is a step down from Jansen & Martin, and the pen was our biggest weakness over the second half of 2024. It was the worst in MLB, and it will be the same or worse, on paper. Teoscar might be as good as the 2024 O'Neill, but go ahead and call it a plus, and I am far from assuming we add him. The O would be about the same. The D should get better, but that depends on Story and how little Wong catches. Maybe we're even going into the rotation. I like our rotation depth better than 2024, but it takes a very rosy "perspective" to have hope in Sandoval giving us anything, this year and Buehler doing something he hasn't done in 4 years. How is thinking Buehler will do well, based on a 10 inning stretch, a bad perspective? Okay... Crochet>>> Pivetta Houck=Houck Bello= Bello Gio <???> Crawford Yea!!! We have one plus over 2024! Schedule the parade! This winter ha ssucked, and adding Teoscar and Estevez might squeek us into the playoffs, but no way should we be viewed as a serious contender, even with rose-colored glasses on.

Even he was a 1 in 5 year shot ( worked one year.) I'm not saying it can never work out. I'm just saying I'm sick of these types of signings and hoping the guy we signed finds his past glory. Richards hadn't pitched more than 77 innings in 5 years and had a 4.65 ERA in his previous 2 seasons (60 IP.) He was actually able to stay pretty healthy for us, but he sucked. Kluber did okay, the year before we signed him (at age 36,) but had less than 120 IP in his previous 3 seasons with a 4.40 ERA. His last great season was also 5 years prior. Wacha and Hill actually did okay for us, but both had long injury histories before we signed them. Wacha had 370 IP in his prior 4 season (4.67 ERA) and a 4.62 ERA over his prior 6 seasons. What were we hoping for? The 127 IP and 3.32 ERA was a dream come true, but still far from what we needed, that year. Hill's injury history has been well documented. We got more from him that expected (124 IP and 4.27 ERA.) Like Hendriks, this year, Paxton was supposed to join the team at the end of 2022, but nothing. He gave us an okay 19 starts in 2023, but went on the IL, when we needed him most. He had pitched 22 innings the previous 2 seasons. By the time he pitched for us, he was 4 seasons removed from being a decent pitcher going 120-160 IP for 4 straight years. Now, It's Buehler's turn, and we should be hopeful? Why? Because of 10 IP? Because of something he did 4 years ago? Because it's 4 years ago, not 5, like the others? Because he's 30 and not 34-37, or 80 like Hill? I hope I'm dead wrong on Buehler, but I just can't take even a sip of this Kool-Aid. Maybe by ST'ing, I might, but right now, I'm toast.

Maybe one of these stabs in the dark on injury-recovering/recovered projects will eventually work, but I'm tired of looking at how great these guys used to be and dreaming they can come close, again. The Sale saga took away all of that type of hope, and the timing of our Sale dump followed by a Cy Young year was the final nail in the coffin. Sure, the Gio signing was supposed to break that mold, but he was never really a great pitcher, anyway.

Well, Crawford would be our long man/ spot starter, and with the injury history of our staff, he may get 33 starts, anyway. (But only if our SP'ers do us a favor and only miss time, one at a time and not all at once. Yeah, right!)

You drank the Kool-Aid, after we warned you dozens of times.

We can't outbid anyone on Sasaki, so that's not about JH being cheap. Buehler over Burnes is. Hell, Buehler over Flaherty or even gasp... Pivetta is being cheap, too. Hell, Kikuchi and Manaea are looking like good deals.

It has to be Crawford to the pen, assuming Gio is not on the IL, day one. Reports say he should be ready. They may not like Crawford in the pen, and when you see what some marginal pitchers are getting in trade, we may just deal him. Unless we sign Hoffman or Estevez (Scott is a pipedream) I'd keep CC. (I'd keep him, even if we sign one.) I'm almost ready to give up on any remaining hopes we actually spend on a top 50 Free Agent. This has gotten beyond absurd. We go from "being in on Soto" to Buehler, Chapman, Sandoval and Wilson. It's all a sick joke.

Tragic comedy right before our eyes.

What baffles me is how many posters wanted Buehler and the injured pitcher, failed plan to continue. Even if Buehler does great, I'm sick to death of this philosophy of avoiding the best pitchers to apparently save a buck or two. Is spending $78M on 4.3 yrs (assuming Sandoval gives us .3 in '25) really saving all that much? I get the risk factor on shorter deals, but if we keep failing when spending $78M on shorter term deals, we aren't really saving more than just signing a pitcher to $20M x 6 years (except for the longer risk.) We spent more on Gio, Buehler & Sandoval than... $75M/3 Manaea (with deferred money) $75M/3 Eovaldi $67M/3 Severino (I would not have liked this deal, either) $64M/3 Kikuchi 2024: $75M/3 S Gray, $62M/2 Snell $53M/4 Imanaga $45M/3 Lugo $32M/2 Wacha + $28M/2 Manaea total is less money! We are getting worse on our pitcher signings- not better, despite spending more.

Joking: I hope. Even adding Scott would be a bad overall winter.

We could get Teoscar, Scott or Hoffman and stay under the tax line, which they claimed was not an issue, this winter. (Yeah, right.) I could see us extending Crochet, starting in 2025. It would make it easier to get him to sign, by giving him more cash, upfront, and keep the AAV a little lower for future budget pinches. I could see them thinking the roster is all set, as is. The sham goes on.

I'm seriously doubting we will before opening day. I doubt it's a pitcher. Apparently, we think Buehler, Sandoval, Wilson and Chapman have one last hurray, in them. I doubt it's Bregman. Hell, these guys are talking about using him at 2B, for God's sake! The best bet might be Teoscar, since Santander wants 5 years, and our OF looks set for 3-5 years. There is nobody else not mentioned above that would make a big impact.

2019 was the last year we signed good SP'ers to more than a 2 year deal, unless you count the Bello deal. Both we already in the system. Sale got $145M/5 w an option and Nate got $68M/4. We never replaced Porcello's $83M/4 deal after 2019. What we've done since then is a total joke. 2020: $6.5M/1 Perez 2021: $10M/1 Richards & $5M/1 Perez 2022: $10M/2 Paxton (out yr 1) $7M Wacha, $5M HIll 2023: $10M/1 Kluber 2024: $39M/2 Giolito 2025: $21M/1 Buehler, $18M/2 Sandoval (out most of yr 1) So, AAV per year: $7M>$15M>$17M>$15M>$30M, and what did we get? I get the fact that one year deals are supposed to be "less risky," but this plan has been backfiring since day one. If you look at the money spent in the last 2 years: $39M for 2 years of Gio+ $18M/2 for Sandoval (knowing it will be 1.3 yrs at best) + $21M for Buehler, it comes to $78M for basically 2 pitchers a year. That's $18M per pitcher x 2 or $39M a year. (This is counting Sandoval's 2026 season, so it's not really 2 calendar years.) We couldn't do better with this kind of money? Really? God, this is just plain awful. I'm sick of this crapola.