moonslav59

Pujols, Goldschmidt, Miggy, and many more dropped off significantly and some, quite early in their new deals.

Yes, okay. Crochet might have total confidence that he will be an ace for 7-10 more years, but he has to worry about a major injury, and that is why he should take less than open market prices starting 2 years from now. I think he might take a similar offer to what we have suggested. The sticking point might be on opt-outs and when they are.

I'm not saying expect it to happen, but to me, gambling on a 25 year old is 10 times better than gambling on a 30-32 year old for 7-8 years. We could be pissed after just one year. I get it. Really, I do. We could be upset 3-4 years into a 7 year deal, like with Price. We could be pissed 1-3 years into an extension, like Sale's, then get doubly pissed when he wins a Cy Young, they year we finally give up on him, once and for all. The risk is always there. I like the Crochet risk more than the Burnes, Fried, Price, Sale and many others' risk. You don't. That is fine and understandable, but I'm not sure why you'd have been happier signing Fried or Burnes than the Crochet, or would you be?

He is the exact case to make my point. Guys over 30-31 don't bounce back and give a lot of value after an injury. Freakishly, he did give 1 Cy Young season under the years of that extension, but his overall value was a big dud. If Crochet has a major injury, I like his chances of still giving some value, afterwards much more than if Burnes or Fried get hurt year 1, 2 or 3. I've said over and over, this is major risk and gamble. Signing Fried and Burnes has major risks, too. They also have an almost certain age-related decline projected.

All of it, unless we can talk him into team options with buy-outs. I fully realize, he could not do so great in the next 2 years, and I'd have egg on my face, and maybe he will take less than what I'm putting out here, but I'm thinking the highest I'd go, and I still think it is less than he'd get, if a teams could sign him right now, as a FA, but with the contract starting in 2027. Look what Yamo got, and he had no MLB experience. It's more about age and skill level vs risk, and I think younger players have a better chance at bouncing back from injury or a couple down years than a 30-32 year SP'er signing for 7-8 years. Maybe he takes $120/6 plus $20M for the 2 arb years ($140M/8.) Maybe he won't go past 4-5 years, in hopes of a mega payday, later. I'm just saying I'd try to lock him up until age 30-31. Go prime not post-prime.

I am doing exactly this. I'd say his current FA market price (if he was 27) might be $28M x 8. I'm offeri ng an extension at $20M x 6, maybe up to $25M x 7. It is LESS!

Agreed, but a TJS at age 33 or 34 for Burnes or Fried, seems more dangerous, in terms of expecting very little, if anything, afterwards, than if Crochet has another major injury at age 27 or 28. We could still salvage some value, years 6-8.

I think Bregman's price and years has to drop for the Sox to bite. I doubt they go $200M/8. Maybe $156-162M/6 is the best he can get, so we might go there. He could get an opt out after 3-4 years, too. I might even give him one after 2 years. Maybe we have the Campbell-Mayer situation figured out, by then. (Story's gone after 3.)

I was thinking in terms of the lowest probable cost and shortest probable contracts of players still on the market. That's why I guessed on them.

Those two did have longer histories of success, as did Betts and others. Crochet is unique, and it's hard to know what he's thinking and what his agent is telling him about his future value.

They are "light" on top pitching prospects, when compared to the Braves and many other MLB farm systems, but I do think the turn-around has begun. While only 1 top 7 prospect is a pitcher (Perales at #4,) pitchers dominate the mid and lower levels of our prospect rankings list. After the top 7, 13 of the next 19 are pitchers. 18 of the bottom 36 are also pitchers. I think there is a good chance we see some of these guys jump in the rankings, while many will fall or stay even. (I'm not counting moving up due to top prospects graduating in 2025.) The addition of pitchers on the farm and the bigs goes beyond just prospects. Brez non-prospect pitcher additions also include: Crochet (younger than some ranked prospects,) Slaten, Criswell, Priester, Weissert, plus Buehler, Giolito, Sandoval, Chapman, Hendriks, Fulmer, Wilson and several others.

Yates will probably get just 1 year, so the Sox could be all over that. I could see Yates and Grichuk to end the off season.

This is how I see it, and sometimes giving a relatively "lower paid" arb guy more money up front, than he would have made in arbs, will get him to sign for less in the latter part of the contract. The AAV becomes lower, which can help going forward, if we ever need a little budget wiggle room. Unless we sign Bregman or take on Arenado's full contact, we can afford his contract, this year, and stay under the tax line, and then have a lower tax line over the rest of his time, here- in theory. Waiting makes sense, only if he gets hurt or regresses. I guess with our track record on picking players to add, that makes some sense, but to me, go with the 25 year old and cross your fingers.

You think that is is max ceiling? (I'm not disagreeing- just wondering why.)

No, you are right, asking what an arb guy would make, right now is NOT "100 relevant," but the point I was getting at was that if Crochet would get $20M a year, now, as a FA, and I think he'd get more, due to his age, then how can giving him an AAV starting in 2 years be some sort of gross overpay. If teams were allowed to sign guys 2 years ahead of their current contract as FAs, IMO, he'd easily get more than $20M x 5 or 6 years. He'd probably get $25M x 6. That's how I choose to look at it- fully realizing it is based on speculation more than proven success- much like Yamo's contract was. So, buy out the arb years ay about $20M/2 ($4M + $16M) and add $150M/6 and you come to $170M/8. To make sure it get's done, and to discourage opt-outs, I'd go $180M/8, maybe more. It's not a perfect method to determine future value, but the amount seems fair, to me, and more importantly, might seem fair to Crochet. We can't keep low-balling our best players as they near their walk time.

If only... (Nice work!)

That was my point from day one. #1 priority is to maximize years of control on the 25 year old. Don't go insane, but be fair and generous. Front end load it some to entice him take a little less, later to lower the AAV. Insist on no opt-outs, but if the numbers get insane, start working backwards on the year he gets an opt out. We might have to settle on 2029, or even 2028, but we need as many as possible. I fully realize the risk. He could be the next Whitlock or Strasburg and kills us in several different ways, but we gotta commit to someone: put the money on the young guy.

They lost me, if they don't lock him up. They might as well have just punted to 2027 with Teel and the Gang. For years, I have been saying we need to add 3 SP'ers, but we'll be lucky if we add one. I guess I should be happy we added Crochet, Buehler and Gio (in a roundabout way) and Sandoval (in an about-round way.) I am, actually, although I'm sick these rehab-type signings. Our rotation is top 2-3 in the AL and maybe top 5 in MLB. That is not an easy thing to do, when we went into 2024 with Gio as out lone hope, and Houck was forced into the 5 slot, when he went down. The D still sucks, and please, no "But Story is...." The pen was okay, last year, but the worst over the second half, and we lost our best pen arms. Adding Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson does not move the needle mush, for me. The offense may need a group effort and better health to just break even. There is still time to fix 2-3 of our top 4-5 higher need areas, but we may need cash or some shrewd trading by the Brezman. I keep moving between mild optimism and near total pessimism, checking in on MLBTR in vain hopes I see something that excites me, and trying to keep some slivers of hope alive. I think our team is better. I do not see other AL teams making big leaps and bounds to pass us or widen the gap that may already exist. Our team is younger than most. We have more ML ready top prospects than everyone else. We have a solid rotation and 5 pitcher rotation depth (Crawford, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins & Fulmer.) We have about 20 RP'ers with varying levels of promise, but not enough we can count on to be "the man," when we need it most. We have some very nice offensive players, some with serious split flaws or defensive liabilities, but a few platoons might work out well. OOooops, there I go again- putting the pie in the sky. Nevermind.

Never heard the "car wreck" line. They were right to let Jake and many others walk.

Yes, they have 4 executive VPs devising a plan on how to create a plan to get things done. The ball is now in motion.

When I post the line-up I want for 2025, I include Anthony and Campbell. If and when they do start playing, along with Mayer, our defense should improve by attrition. The only way it doesn't, if if Anthony takes away only Abreu's OF time, and Campbell and or Mayer take away Story's time at SS. I do feel like the Sox have often viewed LF and 1B as all bat and no glove slots, but 3B was different. I am pretty sure nothing changes at the corner IF positions, this year, but there has been talk of trading Casas, and at least some discussion about Devers being a defensive liability at 3B. Playing Yoshida in LF, at least until Anthony is called up would not be the end of the world, but it should be avoided, if possible. My point was that I'm okay with seeing him play there, more often, if it is a result of fixing the 3B defensive issue (Devers to 1B/DH, Casas to DH/1B and Yoshida-Refsnyder to a semi FT LF platoon. Duran FT CF. Abreu-Rafaela platoon RF. Again, there is less than a 1% chance this happens, but with a major improvement at 3B D and maybe some at 1B, it would more than outweigh the loss on D at LF. I'm hopeful we do something about fixing more than one of our remaining highest need areas, before opening day, but I'm thinking one might be all we can even hope for, and none is all we can expect. To me, we need these areas addressed, if possible, and without creating another equally high need somewhere else: 1. A lock down closer (Tanner Scott, maybe quick fix, one year guy like Helsley) 2. FT Catcher (Wong becomes the back-up and emergency 2B/1B depth) 3. RHB (Maybe Campbell could be that guy, but being safe and adding someone sounds better.) 4. 3B Defense (Bregman signing or a trade and Devers to 1B/DH share with Casas) 5. 1B Defense (Can Devers improve on Casas at 1B D?) 6. Finding a taker for Yoshida and as much of his contract as possible. Best case -not for the budget: sign Bregman & Scott. Move Devers to 1B/DH. Trade Abreu for Herera. 1. L Duran LF/CF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Casas 1B 4. L Devers 3B 5. R Campbell 2B 6. L Anthony RF 7. R Story SS 8. L Yoshida- R Refsnyder LF or Rafaela CF 9. Herrera C SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito RP: Scott, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Crawford, Wilson I know- I know: not happening.

With everyone but Murphy & Sandoval healthy on opening day (Whitlock might need a few weeks more,) I see this 8 man pen on opening day: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Crawford, Wilson & Weissert 5 in AAA on 40: Guerrero, Bernardino, Penrod, Kelly & Shugart When Sandoval & Murphy get placed on the 60 day IL, maybe we add Adams, Fulmer or ICampbell/Mata/Moran and then other non 40 depth, like Jose Adames, Hobie Haris, Noah Davis and Jap Stock. IT's debatable numbering these guys as depth, but I'd say 5 or 6 will almost surely get a look-see in '25. That gets us to 18 plus. Then, there are the SP'ers who could get pen time in MLB in '25: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and non roster guys like Gambrell, Drohan and maybe Sandlin or Early from AA. Pen guys from AA are a longshot: Hoppe & Troye. We used 25 pitchers in relief, last season, not counting DSmith & PReyes. I can see 25 from above getting a look, but a few from last year were added during the season.

We'd need some cash included, of make them take Yoshida + $5-8M x 3 years. The one year of Helsley cuts down on the value, a lot. Arendao greatly improves our defense, assuming he plays 3B not 1B, but we lose on O w him vs Casas. How do we get the O back up to even? Grichuk won't do it. Bregman at 3B, Arenado at 1B and Devers to DH? Way too costly! I think I'd insist on Yoshida plus some cash.

Helsley has one year of control, and Arenado's bat could be toast/ I like Herrara and an extended Helsley. I'm not sure we can trade them 2 Casases, but if they fall for it, great!

There is a lot of potential, and we have a large quantity of RP'ers with some various levels of promise. I think I counted 20, one time. There is a lot to say for having depth, but not having any proven closer is scary. The one that used to be closer have been hurt or in other roles, recently. Our lowest OPS Against Pitchers in Relief (170+ PAs) .575 Jansen .576 Slaten .677 Anderson .680 Martin .702 Booser .725 Weissert .750 Kelly How many of these guys will be in the opening day Sox pen? .770 Wink .775 Bernardino Our pen stunk to end the 2024 season, and the pitchers we added might outpitch the ones we lost, but they have to better than just break even.