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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Polanco signs with SEA for $7.5M. Astros were interested. Is Bregman going to HOU?
  2. moonslav59
    I can't see thinking TOR is better.
  3. moonslav59
    So, we haven't hired replacement scouts, I gather. Seems like using data and scouting would be a way to improve without spending much.
  4. moonslav59
    Scherzer to TOR for $15.5M. Catcher Elias Diaz signs w SDP for $3.5M/1. Not much to talk about, except maybe TOR's budget to sign or not sign Bregman.
  5. moonslav59
    How's this? vs LHPs w BOS (unless noted) ... 1.005 Refsnyder '22 .941 Refsnyder '24 .941 Grissom '22 (w ATL) .879 Romy '24 .877 Wong '23 .847 Story '22 .828 Refsnyder '23 .824 Devers '23 .817 Casas '23 .749 Duran '23 All we need is repeats of specific seasons from the past 3 years, all at once. Note: Grichuk vs LHPs: .914 '24. .995 '23, .926 '22 Laureano: .869 '24, .794 '23, .691 '22, .858 '21 O'Neill: 1.180 '24, .794 '23 (79 PAs) .788 '22 (91 PAs)
  6. moonslav59
    This is reminding me of the "Who will replace Renfroe's 98 RBIs" period. Maybe we sign Grichuk and Robertson and that pushes us over the line by a thread.
  7. moonslav59
    Agreed. I saw Robertson as okay in '22 and '23, maybe a little better than okay, and he was really good in '24. My issue is not knowing if he will be "good" or not in '25. We have 15-20 RP'ers with various levels of promise. Sure, most do not have as much as Robertson or Jansen, but I wanted a lock down closer. Again, I'd settle on either or both, and maybe they cna move the needle more than I expect they will. Some notable fWAR seasons from the pen since 2021; 1.9 Robertson '24 (1.2 in '23) 1.8 Jansen '21 (1.4 in '24) 1.8 Schreiber '22 1.7 Chapman '23 1.6 Whitlock '21 1.5 Slaten '24, Martin '23 1.4 Crochet '21 & Fulmer '21 1.3 Barnes '21 Trades? 2.3 M Miller '24 2.3 Bednard '23 (1.4 '22) 2.2 & 2.0 Helsley '24 & '22 (1.5 in '23)
  8. moonslav59
    I changed Robertson to 2nd to 4th. I also said, I'd "take them both." I just don't see either making a BIG difference. They might, so why not? I wanted better, but would settle on either or both.
  9. moonslav59
    Casas hits lefties, okay, so 350-400 more PAs from him could help. Devers has had some seasons with good lefty splits. 500 more from Story is an unknown, but has promise. Romy and Ref are our two lefty killers. Grissom and Rafaela are dice rolls.
  10. moonslav59
    1.181 is what we need!
  11. moonslav59
    I see both declining but with hopes for one more good year. Robertson had a very nice 2024, but he dropped about 90 points off his FIP from '22 and '23. His K/BB ratio went up like a 26 year old. I just have serious doubts about a repeat. I'd rather have him than Wilson and maybe 2-3 other in the pen, but I'd have him as our 2nd to 4th pen arm, but could end up our #2 or #8. I'd make Jansen the closer, knowing he could easily lose the job by May. I'd take em both, but I doubt they'd make a big difference.
  12. moonslav59
    He might make a good closer. I can't really blame the agent, although I did not think he deserved a QO. I thought he could get $60M/4 or $50M/3. Has there been any reported offer or serious discussions? I know I'm a homer, but I thought he was pretty good, and he took the ball every 5 days, unless demoted. Since 2021: 23rd in IP 47th in SIERA at 3.78 (tied or close to Nate, Ober, Castillo, Steele, Ragans, Lugo, Kikuchi & Houck) Since 2023 (79 pitchers w 250+ PAs) 4th in SIERA 3.32 38th ERA- at 93 50th in fWAR at 3.9
  13. moonslav59
    MLBTR's top FAs still not signed: 3. Bregman- looks like TOR or DET (outside chance HOU or BOS) 7. Alonso (1Bmen have seen their stock tumble) 8. Flaherty (Injury concerns) 25. Heaney (not sure why he was ranked 25th.) 28. Pivetta (no rumors that I know of.) 33. Scherzer (not sure he's still got enough in the tank) 41. Kyle Gibson (nope) 47. David Robertson (turns 40 in April) 49. H Bader and 50. Turnbull Others" Jansen, Grichuk, Lance Lynn, J Junis, JD and Turner
  14. moonslav59
    Agreed. Jansen, Robertson or some converted starter barely move the needle.
  15. moonslav59
    They also project K Campbell to be the starting 2Bman, with DHam & Romy on the bench and Grissom at AAA. They have us with 6 SP'ers and 9 RP'ers plus the "acquisition" for RP'er #5, so something will have to give, there. This is not counting Bernardino listed as "inactive." All totalled, that's 17 pitchers for 13 slots. They have 21 pitchers under the AAA umbrella.
  16. moonslav59
    I would think some teams have one guy with way more decision-making power than other teams.
  17. moonslav59
    They have clearly tried to increase the focus on pitching, but it does seem puzzling to purge the scouting group that did so well finding everyday players. Maybe they didn't want to pay to just add more. Who knows. The amount of pitchers we have added to our system in the 15 months Brez has been in control is pretty amazing. He has made several everyday players for pitcher trades, as well as older pitchers for younger ones. He drafted more pitchers than we've seen in a while, and paid them more than recently. He's also spent more bonus money on IFAs and signed several pitchers as FAs and minor league FAs. He swung and missed on the deadline trades for pitching (Paxton, Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims, but a mild effort was made.) Crochet, Buehler, Sandoval, Giolito & Criswell Fitts & Priester Hendriks, Chapman, Fulmer & Wilson Slaten, Weissert, I Campbell & Sandlin and a few other promising ones, along with some not-so-good additions. We traded away Teel, Montgomery, Meidroth, E Vadlez, Nick Yorke, Lugo & a few others. We did trade E Rod for Narvaez, but most have been everyday players for pitchers.
  18. moonslav59
    Word is the Mets were talking to Jansen before signing Stanek to $4.5M/1. I wonder, if Jansen could end up "falling" to the Sox on a 1 year deal. As much as he has declined, I think I'd still prefer him over Hendriks and Chapman.
  19. moonslav59
    There probably is. I think it's safe to say all major decisions are at least discussed, fully, with several people. I do think some teams have a more streamlined process than we do, and maybe less people who make the final call. IMO, I think we have a framework set-up by many, but it comes down to JH to give the final thumbs up or down. If a signing would bring us way over the suggested budget, maybe the whole group has to meet to give the okay... like maybe the Soto deal had to go over JH's head.
  20. moonslav59
    We can improve our numbers vs LHPs by never starting Abreu or DHam vs lefties, and I guess trading Abreu would make sure that never happens, but we should keep him, at least until Anthony is added to the 40 & 26. There are several ways to fit a FT Anthony into the OF. 1. LF Duran, CF Rafaela v LHP and Anthony v RHPs, RF Anthony v LHPs and Abreu v RHPs. 2. LF Anthony, CF Duran, RF Abreu-Rafaela platoon. Adding Anthony forces Refsnyder to platoon DH, not LF/RF, unless someone wants to sit Duran v LHPs (not me.)
  21. moonslav59
    We could have given him more, but with deferrals that would bring the actual cost to the team to $300M, but Betts the satisfaction that the contract says $330M or the like. Another botched event in Sox history.
  22. moonslav59
    We'll have to beat them 1-0 with our stud SP'ers added.
  23. moonslav59
    It's hard to know what is going on, and with so many mixed messages, it sure seems like a lot of hands are in the dough. I'm sure many teams consult multiple people before making big signings, so I'm not sure if we are all that unique, or maybe our routine is just plain dysfunctional. We obviously are very tight on longer term deals. No 3 year deals since Vic. Bogey's extension had an opt out after 3. Nate's re-sign was 4 years. The Sale extension and JD signing was 5 years. Yoshida was 5. Story 6. Price 7 but was dumped, early. The 8 year Pedey extension was way back in 2014. Devers 10. Since the Pedey extension, these are all the deals at 3 year or more that I can think of: 10 Devers, 7 Price, 6 Story, 5 Yoshida, Sale, JD, 4 Nate, 3 Bogey's opt out deal. 6 deals over 4 years in 10 years. 8 at 3 or more.
  24. moonslav59
    Good points about my "attrition" label. We lost at least 5 prospects through trades... 4. Teel, 5. Montgomery, 8. Meidroth, 18. Wikelman, 25. E R-C We added 4 IFA prospects and Fajardo, the guy we got for Booser. so I think it was 5 for 5. Was Shugart a top 60 prospect? Did I miss anyone?
  25. moonslav59
    Personally, I'd be thrilled with .780 v L and .680 v R with GG defense in 150+ games. Can or should he do better? Okay, sure, yes, but my bar is lower than yours, I guess. I expect age regression, just as I expect age progression for many of our returning younger players. I do think Fenway is close to COL as being a hitter's park, but I do not expect numbers from 2019- that last full season Trevor hit over .801. That was 5 years ago.
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