moonslav59

Really? I could have sworn teams could not do this. Why don't we do it, now, instead of trading guys like Shugart and Booser to make room for new players? I think Sandoval is a lock for the 60 day. Maybe Murphy could be added.

Of course, but as a group, I think it fair to expect a team with 12 out of 13 batters in pre-prime, peak prime or the end of prime, and the one guy outside of prime as a short-sided platoon guy, to do better than when they were younger. Only Duran had a career year. I don't count Abreu, because it was his first full year. Some may regress, but more should progress. Can you agree with that principle?

I look at where we finished in 2024, who TOR and BOS lost from 2024 and who we added, including returning healthy players that missed a lot of time in '24. TOR had a nice winter, but I think ours is better. Look at Crochet's data. Buehler's. Gio, Hendriks, Chapman and returning guys like Whitlock, Casas, Devers and even Story. There are a lot of services that make projections based on data. I have only seen one come up with team totals, so far. Are there others that show TOR better than us?

I don't disagree, but I also do not have high hopes for a guy (Hendriks) who has not pitched since 2022 and turns 36 in a couple weeks. I like Slaten, too, and I think Whitlock might end up being the best of the 4.

You can't place a player on the 60 Day IL, until opening day.

Maybe Sam think he is just a Grichuk, Campbell and Anthony away from fixing that "balance."

That has to be the plan, and honestly, I don't think it's a bad one. We have 3 top prospects- all ML ready or very close to it. I know prospects are no sure bet, but with 3, there is a very good chance 1-2 do well. There is always a chance, even a steady vet has an off year or gets hurt. Nothing is a guarantee in MLB. You try to put together the best team you can, on paper, and then see how they do. The good thing is, our weakest areas for hitting are middle IF and OF vs LHPs, only, and our top prospects play MI (Campbell 2B and Mayer SS) and OF (Anthony has good splits and Campbell bats RH'd.). Okay, Catcher is an issue, too, but not really at hitting.

The law of averages says player approaching prime, usually improve.

Maybe he feels like having 3 of the best ML ready prospects in America and the return of Casas is all the focus he needs on O. Maybe he feels like the return of Story to SS will leap us from bottom 5 to middle 10 on D. It's not like there is nothing to base improvement on. Almost every batter and defender we have on the 26 is moving towards prime, and going by age curve history, should get better. The ones that are not approaching peak prime are either in peak prime (Devers, Duran, Romy and Wong,) near the end of prime (Story & Yoshida) or showing no signs of letting up in their post prime (Refsnyder, who is a short-side platoon DH/LF'er.) It should be expected that our returning players, as a whole, do better in 2025 than 2024, and that is not even looking at returning players from injury, like Casas, Devers, Story, Yoshida and others with lesser injuries. (Yes, some will get hurt in 2025, but we lost a lot of our best batters in 2024, and some played hurt in many games.)

One set of data, yes.

He won't be signing a minor league deal, either.

Agreed, and if we had both, I'd start the year with Jansen as the closer. To me, it's a close call between Hendriks and Chapman. I even think Slaten or Whitlock could muscle their way into the closer role.

Last year, Abreu started 104 of 119 games when a RHP started (87%.) He started 6 out of 43 games when a lefty started (14%.) I expect about the same in 2025. I think Ref missed some time, and O'Nell did miss a lot of time, so maybe he would not have started that many (6) vs LHPs, had they been healthy. We'll see.

Exactly, and bad splits by Sox players in 2025 is not a sure thing, either. Casas is pretty good vs lefties, and Devers has had some very nice seasons vs lefties. Ref and Romy may not repeat their success, but I have more faith if Ref vs LHPs in '25 than O'Neill. Story is the wild card, along with Campbell & Anthony.

Being optimistic does not mean the team does well. I was very optimistic going into 2019. I was more optimistic in the winter before 2022 than I was before 2021's.

I guess my main issue with this is about relying exclusively on 2024 data, like that is the one driver in projecting future production. We have several players who have had great or decent success vs LHPs in very recent seasons- just not 2024. There is no reason to think some of them will have better 2025 seasons than 2024, especially Devers, Casas, Story & maybe Wong and Duran. As great as Duran looked in '24, his LH'er splits were better in '23- same with Wong. It is an issue and concerns me, a lot. I am pushing for a Grichuk signing to help ease the loss of O'Neill, but I also see that just about everyone did worse vs LHPs in '24 than previous seasons. Even ref had better recent seasons and w more PAs. Romy looks like the only guy with a career best season v lefties, and he did not play all that much. It's a worry, but we did get better in other areas- even way better with the rotation, that was not all that bad, to begin with.

Nope to both. (My opinion and my expectation)

Maybe more like a $4-4.5M/1 deal w bonuses.

I would not start him vs LHPs to begin the season. I'd use Refsnyder at corner OF as the starter v lefties. (Yoshida would be the FT DH.) Once we see how Abreu does, when he faces LH'd RP'ers, that might change, some. The arrival of Anthony or even playing Campbell in the OF might force the choice for us. I'd go: v RHPs: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF v LHPs: Ref LF, Duran CF, Rafaela RF (in away games w shorter RF's, I'd flip Ref to RF, Duran to LF and Rafaela in CF.) Anthony has had decent splits in the minors, but rookies often struggle vs off-handed pitchers, out of the gate. He will not be added to the 40, until he's added to the 26 as a FT player or very near FT player. To me, he'd force an Abreu-Rafaela platoon. If Campbell is added as an OF'er, Rafaela would become the super utility guy or FT SS, if Story is out. (He could play some 2B, if Anthony is in the OF and Campbell not on the 26.)

While I think losing Pivetta may be more significant than some think, I can't help but get excited about the rotation and rotation depth this team has. Many have lingering questions that may seem larger or more profound than pitchers like Burnes and Fried, but many of the guys we have can throw some nasty stuff and have proven they can dominate in their roles. Crochet is looking to step up his IP, much like Houck and Crawford did in 2024, but there is no doubt, the guy can dominate. Buehler reminds me of Sale, missing so much time and not being fully dominant when pitching in between injuries, but again, this guy can dominate and showed he can, last October. The 2024 addition of Giolito might as well be considered a 2025 addition, and while he has not shown the dominance he once had a few years back, over a full season, he is not old, and he has had some pretty long stretches of looking really good, not too long ago. Houck's 2024 success is fresh on our minds. There is a worry he cannot do it again, but the guy can pitch- and pitch very well. Bello and Crawford seemed to look better in 2023 than 2024, but both showed they can take the ball every 5 days and are at an age where a break out or "career" season often occurs. We are one of just 3 teams, the Reds and Rays are the others, who have 6 SP'ers with projected fWARs of over 1.1. On top of these 6, we probably have top 5 or 10 AAA SP'er depth in Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and no 40 man guys Fulmer, Gambrell and Drohan. The pen lost Jansen and Martin, along with as many innings of easily replaceable scrubs, but we added Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson. Once could count Whitlock as a "new pitcher," since his role has changed back to where he had some great success. His past success was no fluke. The guy can pitch. He even had a 1.96 ERA, last year, before going on the IL. Hendriks and Chapman have had some great success, even recently. Slaten had one of the Sox best fWAR years as a RP'er in a long time. BEST RP'er fWAR in the last 10 years: 3.2 Kimbrel '17 2.1 Workman '19 1.8 Schreiber '22 1.6 Whitlock '21 1.5 Martin '23 1.4 Slaten '24 & Jansen '24 1.3 Uehara '15, Kimbrel '18 & Barnes '21 1.2 Barnes '19 & '18 Newbies: since 2019 (last 5 full seasons) 3.9 Hendriks '20 2.7 Hendriks '21 2.1 Chapman '20 1.8 Chapman '23 1.6 Hendriks '22 There are some good reasons to be optimistic about our pitching staff: 6 good starters and 4 RP'ers with some very nice success, over the past 5 seasons. We have a lot of decent pitching depth in AAA, as well. Maybe, this will not be enough to compensate for doing little to improve the offense and defense, over the winter, but we do have 3 of America's top 25 prospects, who are all ML ready or very close to it. (Mayer would likely have made it 3 top 10 prospects, had he stayed healthy. At what point is it okay to be optimistic?

Yes, I get that, but I'd consider posting my first bet in over 40 years on the Sox finishing ahead of the Jays in '25. The Jays have been active- no doubt. They lost Dillon Tate, Ryan Yarbrough, Jordan Romano and Spencer Horwitz and gained: Santander Hoffman Scherzer Yimi Garcia, Andres Gimenez, Nick Sandlin, Josh Walker & Miles Straw. The Sox lost Jansen, Pivetta, O'Neill, Martin & quite a few additions by subtractions. We added: Crochet Buehler Sandoval Chapman Wilson, Narvaez, Moran and have a bunch of players returning from injury, including Giolito & Hendriks (0IP in '24) and Whitlock, Story, Casas and others. We lost more than they did, but our gains look way better, to me. (I'm sure they have returning injured players, too, but ours seem more promising and significant. (Maybe I'm wrong.)

Actually, not everything. Maybe not even 5 of the 8 players I listed. 4 out of 8 might be enough. The thing is, it might be just as likely enough of the guys on this list do well vs LHPs in 2025 as it is for O'Neill to stay healthy and rake, again. O'Neill is such a wild card. We may have just been lucky to draw that card in 2025. If we brought him back, it would be Pollyannic to expect 450+ PAS and an OPS vs LHPs over .900, too. Forget about 1.180.

I feel like we have one more move to do- maybe two. Not major, but something. I think we sign Grichuk or Laureano. Maybe we sign a RP'er, but I doubt it is Robertson or Jansen. Maybe Finnegan, Sims or Beeks.

Is he any worse than Penrod, Weissert, I Campbell, Wilson and a few other guys that might get 30+ IP in 2025? (I don't want him.)

Here's our chance to boost the pen!