moonslav59

RHB Eugenio Suarez turns 35 in mid July. He's played over 145 games for 5 straight seasons. In his last 4 seasons, he's had these OPS+: 129 in '22 103 in '23 (kinda scary) 115 in '24 126 in '25 (94 w SEA after trade) 4 year total 118. He's had a dWAR of 0.0 in the same period of time, but he was minus in DRS and OOA in 2015 at 3B. ('22-'24: -8 DRS but +13 OAA.) I'm thinking he'd be a plus at 1B and offer depth at 3B, if Mayer gets hurt. He's a risk, but he seems to be aging well. Maybe he'll take $70M/3? RHP Merrill Kelly just turned 87....errr...I mean 37. That's pretty damn old for a pitcher, and he had an injury in 2024, but he had 33, 30 and 32 in the other 3 seasons since 2022. His ERA+ has been between 104 ('24) to 133 ('23) and sits at a pretty awesome 120 from '22-'25. FIP 3.81. It's hard to project his future and risk potential, but maybe he takes a 2 years deal- maybe $45M/2. Together, those deals total about $45M AAV, which is about how far below the the tax line we are projected for 2026. If we choose to stay under, that would be all we could add, without cutting some salary or trading equal salary amounts. (Duran makes $8M AAV and Campbell $7.5M AAV- Lodolo makes less. Hint-hint.)

Of course, ther risk of failure or steep decline is higher, but at least it's not a 5, 6 year or longer bust.

Alex Speier was on the latest soxprospects.com's podcast and said some encouraging things about the Sox looking to upgrade the top of the rotation with someone better than Gio, while also adding a power bat. He talked about how the Sox could easily have a AAA 5 man rotation of capable 5th starters, and how the Sox are well positioned to make trades with teams looking to rebuild (prospects) or to compete in 2026 (Duran/Abreu or pitching depth.) "Giant question marks:" Casas, Mayer and Campbell. We are no longer "waiting on a prospect," except maybe with pitching. We are waiting for players who already have some experience to "make the next step in their development and where are we going to chose to upgrade from outside the system."

I fully understand your position, and with our record on deals longer that 4 years, I realize the risk involved. I've actually suggested going after two guys, only because they will likely get less than 5 years and maybe even 2-3 years: Merrill Kelly and E Suarez. Now, there is heightened risk with them, because of their ages, but I'm thinking their risks are not any worse than signing a 6-10 year deal with someone younger.

He did end up getting very upset when they would not commit to the option years that led to the trade, and maybe he felt like his "good will" on taking deferments should have been demoted. The whole ending to his Sox time was a big bummer, and there were more to come after him. (There were plenty from before, too.)

When they say $150-200M, is it for 4 years or 10, or what?

No slight intended towards the Jays. They earned their trip to the WS and built a team that was better than I expected, but pretty damn good. I've mentioned how they had 3 SP'ers with 31+ GS. That helps, a lot. Their offense got better was the year went on. Their pen did okay, despite having a questionable closer for most of the season. That being said, they lost 88 games in 2024 and did not make a ton of additions. Looking at 2026, they have more productive players becoming FAs than the Sox do: Bassitt, Bichette, Bieber, Scherzer, Kiner-Falefa, plsu France & Dominguez. A lot will depend on who comes back or who might replace them, but they have a lot of winter questions. SEA made some bold deadline deals and made a great run at the big prize. Their once great rotation kinda struggled, this year, but they still came very close to making the WS. They may lose 3 huge bats: E Suarez, Naylor & Polanco and a real good pen arm in Munoz. They have some big winter needs, too. The Yanks will certainly retool, and they should have Cole back, but we know what counting on returning IL pitchers can amount to. They lose a couple big bats: Bellinger & Grisham, plus a bunch of role players like Weaver, Goldschmidt, Williams, Loaisaga, Hill, Rosario, Slater & Yarboro. It will be interesting to see what their winter budget will be. The Sox lose Bregman and Gio. Refsnyder and Matz had key roles, but not major ones. Wilson, too. Our budget may be our do or die question.

I think he gets Story money: $140M/6 or $120M/5- maybe with inflation: $150M/6 or $130M/5. (JH will not okay that deal.)

The betting odds favor a guy named Tristan Casas as our 2026 1Bman with Romy/KC as depth. The odds favor Yoshida/Romy at DH for 2026. The odds favor Mayer at 3B or 2B for 2026. The slot that is wide open is the one Mayer does not play: 2B or 3B.

My bad. We needed 2023 numbers over 2024 IP'd. Now, we need better than 2023 numbers and 2024 IP. Again, not likely.

Curious on Alonso & Schwarber.

At least he earned his.

The Dodgers have no top 5 pitchers. Maybe Yamamoto is #5. 1. Skubal 2. Skenes 3. Crochet 4. C Sanchez 5T. Webb, Fried, Yamamoto and maybe H Brown or Sale.

Yup. He could be our #2 because everyone else has not earned the slot, but he could pitch better than 2024 and be okay as a #2, and if our #3, 4 and 5 do okay, too, there is a chance we could still make the dance. (Not likely, yes.)

It might pay the bar tab.

There is a chance Crawford becomes our #2 or 3 SP'er in 2026- or never starts another game for us. Most likely, he'll be our #5-6 SP'er.

We also dumped all of the remaining Diekman contract. It was a decent deal on both ends.

I'm just glad they took Diekman.

He looked okay on D, but nothing special. I do think the odds are 2025 was an outlier, but maybe not. I do not hand hima FT job- for sure. What impressed me most was his okay numbers vs righties. I thought he might be our next Refsnyder, but maybe he can be more.

There is no possible way we let Crawford walk. At worst, we trade him.

Lodolo for Duran even saves us $3.5M. That may not seem like much, but if the goal is to spend up to but below the tax line, $48M might get us two really good players while $44.5M may get just one plus a decent other one.

Dreaming of dumping.... Yoshida ($37M/2) Hicks ($24M/2) Casas (3 arbs) Crawford (3 arbs) Clarke & Sandlin Sonny Gray ($40M/1 and $25M AAV) & Willson Contreras ($41M/2 and $17.5M AAV) We give up about $41M AAV for $43M AAV. Yes, only a dream.

The O's are still paying Chris Davis something like $9M a year.

We might be able to get Suarez and Merrill for around the $45M or so we have to spend and stay below the tax line, assuming that is the budget. Any subsequent trades would have to be even money, at worst. Duran's AAV is $8M and Campbell's is $7.5M.

I think we need more of a power bat, and I think he probably wants to be a SS, at least for a few more years. I'd take Alonso at the prices I listed, but getting Suarez might allow us to get a second major FA (not on this list.)