moonslav59

And Anthony for Devers?

Yoshida is the ground ball to 2B poster boy. Okay, his BA is 40 points above Casas, but his OBP is lower by 10. Casas is 25 points ahead of Masa in SLG %. I'll take the slow poke who can hit 35 bombs and get on base more often. That's not even counting age regression and progression.

Yes, I called us "loonies". The top Sox OPS+ players of 2025- only 100+ listed: 151 Devers (334 PAs) gone in June 140 Anthony (303 PAs) Rookie season 131 Refsnyder (209 PAs) FA 128 Bregman (495 PAs) FA 128 Romy (341 PAs) Outlier season? 121 N Lowe (119 PAs) Probably non tendered 116 Abreu (417 PAs) Platooned in '25 114 Duran (654) Loonies wanna trade him for pitching 105 Eaton (90) Probably not on opening day 26 104 Story (654) 33 years old likely peaked out 100 Narvaez (446) Rookie season We are losing about 1050 PAs of OPS+ above 121. If we trade Duran, it almost 1750 PA of OPS+ above 114. That's between 25 and 30% of all our PAs and nearly a third the total PAs above 100. This is the starting point and we need to get better than 2025 on offense. I've been thinking 2 major additions might be enough, but we likely need 3 out of these 4 slots: 3B, 2B, 1B, DH Then, we need a dependable, solid #2 SP'er.

I really think our needs, though narrow (maybe 3 major additions,) are very significant.

If you knew both would be healthy and give you 650 PAs, then what?

I'm not sure every team gets these funds.

I have to ask: what if every owner was like the "big 5?"

It's a huge downgrade, despite them only totally about 830 PAs in 2025. We hear, "Oh, Anthony will go from 300 to 600 PAs, next year, so..." So what? I ask. That's just 350 out of the 830 lost- not even half. Now, consider this, we are looking at losing 4 of our top 6 OPS+ guys from 2025- not just Breggie and Devers! 151 Devers (334 PAs) 1st 131 Refsnyder (209) 3rd behind Anthony at 140 128 Bregman (495) 121 Nate Lowe (119) 6th behind Romy at 128 who may not repeat 2025 numbers. Anthony adding 325 PAs is more like replacing Lowe and Ref's PA totals. We ended the season realizing we needed an upgrade on our 2025 offense, and then we move he starting point to minus about 1050 of our best batters in the season. Here is what we are starting with (assuming no Lowe and FAs leaving) 140 Anthony (303 with a possible sophomore slump coming) 128 Romy (341 with this being a likely outlier season) 116 Abreu (417 with mostly platoon action, when healthy) 114 Duran (696 and some loonies are insisting we trade him) 105 Eaton (90) 104 Story (654 at age 33) 100 Narvaez (446 as a rookie) We need to make up for the loss then double that.

Casas almost always stars out slowly, and I usually berate posters over using small sample sizes, but I do think Casas was coming out of his funk in early '25 before the injury: Last 8 games: .261 2 HRs 7 RBI (.936 OPS thanks to 5 BB and a .414 OBP) The Bobby Dee story scares the beJesus out of me, but I don't think Casas is him. Bobby Dee never carried over his decent OBP from the minors, like Tristan did. I know Casas is quirky and a lumbering load of lard who couldn't field better than anyone's grandma, but the guy is a hitter.

To me, I don't see a plan based on marginally upgrading 4-6 positions through low to moderate deals that are short in length and pretty much guarantee we get no very high quality players, unless by trade. Sure, we might find the next Bregman one and done type signing, but those are not too common and are often not that successful, either. I know some here disagree, but I don't really want to upgrade Anthony in LF, Rafaela in CF, Abreu in RF and Narvaez at catcher. If Story does not opt out, he's a lock at one position- hopefully 2B. I'd add Duran to the list, but with 3 OF'ers and his value lowered by moving im to DH. I think he'll be part of a package to land us a #2 SP. Let's assume that happens, and we look to do thing your way. We can upgrade at 1B, 2B, 3B and DH but no long deals. To do that and still get quality, you have to sign guys that are either too old to get more than 3 years- like... 3B: E Suarez (34 or maybe to play 1B) or who? Urshela at 34 or Vargas at 34? Moncada at 31 for 3 years? 1B: Santana (40) Turner (41) or J Bell (33) Maybe we can get Hoskins (33) at 3 years 2B: Iggy (36) or Adam Frazier (34) Are they better bets than a Romy/DHam platoon? Maybe we talk B Lowe (31) into a 3 year deal. G Torres (29) and Wili Castro (29) will get 4+. DH: Schwarber is 33, but he's getting 4+, so who? Ozuna at 35? Even if we spend over the tax line, you want us to spend on these guys? Maybe Suarez at $18M x 3, Hoskins at $15M x 3 and Ozuna at $14M x 2? Then, what to do with Yoshida, and we'd still need Mayer at 2B or go with Romy-DHam. I just don't see that as enough to get us over the top. We were better with Devers, Bregman, Gio, Ref & Matz. It's not getting better, unless everything goes right. I think we need to bite the bullet on one guy and hope he's not the next David Price. Maybe, he can be the next JD Martinez- the last big FA bat signing. (Story was kinda glove with some bat and $140M/6 was long but not all that large.) Trade for a #2 SP. DO NOT GO LARGE AND LONG ON A SP'er! Then, plan A: Sign one large and long on big bat (Alonso, Schwarber) and another good bat (Hoskins, Suarez, Polanco, Bichette or Bregman) Plan B: one from Bregman or Suarez and then one from Polanco or Bichette and then a decent 1B guy like Bell or Suarez. That's three from the tier below Alonso and Schwarber. I seriously doubt we do this (or plan A.) Plan C: Sign Alonso or Schwarber plus Merrill Kelly (2 yrs) and then trade for K Marte.

I really hope we set our sights higher than Hoskins/Naylor/Bell at 1B. If we don't we better get a damn good hitting 3Bman or 2Bman. I'm thinking E Suarez or K Marte types. I'm not sure that even Bregman and Hoskins gets me all that excited, unless we add a very solid #2 SP'er, too.

If Story bolts, we almost certainly will not add 3 significant infielders. If he doesn't, I doubt we add two, but maybe one major one and an okay one. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope so.

It has to be something stronger than pot. Glad you admitted to it. That is the very first step to recovery.

I was thinking of Uberstine when I mentioned Sandlin & Mullins. I agree, it's not decided, but they seem like very possible candidates to be converted at the beginning of '26. Maybe Uberstine is, or is traded. I could see Crawford moved to the MLB pen to start '26, and that might allow Early to be the 5th starter- assuming Dobbins begins on the IL, but we also have Sandoval, Harrison and Fitts, who could be the first moved to the pen. There are a lot of possibilities and soxprospects.com is just making projections, and they could easily be off the mark.

Does anyone play ball like the ole O's used to do?

No FA pitchers really jump out at me as must have or love-to-have. Some would certainly be upgrades, and a few would even be slotted #2, but those will be very costly. I've mentioned Merrill Kelly, due to his age and shorter term contract outlook. It's not that I want us to continue with the trend of no FA pitcher contracts longer than 2 years, but this time, I'm thinking the trade route looks better. Use all the winter spending budget on bats.

So, is xFIP your go to stat? Sometimes, I'm not so sure. (No disrespect intended)

It can only make sense if all the deals he was working on were MLB players for MLB players. Those aren't normal deadline deals.

Surprising but maybe realistic (long shot) we sign Alonso. I don't think we trade Bello. I think we might trade Crawford with Duran or by himself, but it might make more sense to wait until he proves he's healthy, but waiting might end proving he's not all that valuable.

Good points, but I think Sandlin will stick in the pen. I think Mullins will be in AAA and we already have 7-8 starters there. AA looks packed, too.

You are actually counting on this? My guess is they count on Mayer to be a FT 3B/2B, or SS if Story bolts, and if he does bolt, they count on Romy-DHam to fill 2B. They probably won't bring Lowe back for 1B, but it would not shock me, especially if it's not at the projected arb rate. Hell, they may even count on Casas (Romy/Campbell) to fill 1B. They won't be adding 3 quality infielders. Book it.

Like Barry Bonds without the roids.

Me, too, and we already have 17 DHs or 3-5 players who probably should be DH only.

The recency on Masa is that he misses most of the season (2025) or runs out of steam (.600 in last 23 games of '24 and .592 in last 52 games of '23)