moonslav59

That was one promise they did keep, perhaps out of luck. They said they win more.

Kinda what I was getting at. I'm not sure I'd like every owner being like the Dodgers and Mets owners.

I'm not expecting anything more than disappointment, and yes bringing back Breggie and Gio, even add on Matz and Ref would be a bummer, to me. 1. It's doubtful they give us equal value in 2026 as 2025. 2. We still have not made up for losing Devers, and no, Anthony is not his replacement. 3. We ended up with an offense that came up way short, when it counted and were grasping at rookies to try and find a #2 SP'er we thought we might have had with Gio & Bello until September rolled around. This is the time to go bold. They made motions of grandeur, last winter with all the Soto and other overtures, and then actually shocked some of us by going $40M on Breggie, at the last minute. Months later they dumped Devers and made more promises. Now, Breggie has opted out, Gio too, and we await Story's choice. Ref & Matz are FAs. The much brighter outlook of last March is now no better than the outlook at March 2024. We still have a winter for moves and shakes. We need to get bold, but it's doubtful JH & Co. see it that way, or at least to the extent many of us feel they need to be. Only time will tell, but it's going to take a lot to satisfy me, yet I say that with very low expectations on what they will end up doing. I want a lot but am counting on next to nothing more than status quo.

Teams "count" on certain players, even if the "want" better. I'm pretty sure the Sox are counting on a FT Anthony, Rafaela, Narvaez, and if not traded, Duran and Abreu. Perhaps, they still plan to platoon Abreu and possibly Duran might begin one. They probably count on Story at SS or maybe longshot thinking- 2B. They might also "count on" Mayer to fill 2B or 3B with the idea that Romy & DHam are capable back-ups, if he gets hurt again. That's 6 of 9 slots before any OF'er is traded. (One could DH.) That leaves 2 slots uncounted on. (Brez & Co may see just 1- see my Romy-DHam comment.) 1B and 2B/3B. If we trade an OF'er, we can count DH as the third need. I'd like (want) three, but I'd be happy with 2 major high quality batters. Who Brez and Co is "counting on" is anybody's guess. He may think we can just roll it back or maybe replace Lowe with Hoskins and call it a day on the offense. God, I hope not.

And Anthony for Devers?

Yoshida is the ground ball to 2B poster boy. Okay, his BA is 40 points above Casas, but his OBP is lower by 10. Casas is 25 points ahead of Masa in SLG %. I'll take the slow poke who can hit 35 bombs and get on base more often. That's not even counting age regression and progression.

Yes, I called us "loonies". The top Sox OPS+ players of 2025- only 100+ listed: 151 Devers (334 PAs) gone in June 140 Anthony (303 PAs) Rookie season 131 Refsnyder (209 PAs) FA 128 Bregman (495 PAs) FA 128 Romy (341 PAs) Outlier season? 121 N Lowe (119 PAs) Probably non tendered 116 Abreu (417 PAs) Platooned in '25 114 Duran (654) Loonies wanna trade him for pitching 105 Eaton (90) Probably not on opening day 26 104 Story (654) 33 years old likely peaked out 100 Narvaez (446) Rookie season We are losing about 1050 PAs of OPS+ above 121. If we trade Duran, it almost 1750 PA of OPS+ above 114. That's between 25 and 30% of all our PAs and nearly a third the total PAs above 100. This is the starting point and we need to get better than 2025 on offense. I've been thinking 2 major additions might be enough, but we likely need 3 out of these 4 slots: 3B, 2B, 1B, DH Then, we need a dependable, solid #2 SP'er.

I really think our needs, though narrow (maybe 3 major additions,) are very significant.

If you knew both would be healthy and give you 650 PAs, then what?

I'm not sure every team gets these funds.

I have to ask: what if every owner was like the "big 5?"

It's a huge downgrade, despite them only totally about 830 PAs in 2025. We hear, "Oh, Anthony will go from 300 to 600 PAs, next year, so..." So what? I ask. That's just 350 out of the 830 lost- not even half. Now, consider this, we are looking at losing 4 of our top 6 OPS+ guys from 2025- not just Breggie and Devers! 151 Devers (334 PAs) 1st 131 Refsnyder (209) 3rd behind Anthony at 140 128 Bregman (495) 121 Nate Lowe (119) 6th behind Romy at 128 who may not repeat 2025 numbers. Anthony adding 325 PAs is more like replacing Lowe and Ref's PA totals. We ended the season realizing we needed an upgrade on our 2025 offense, and then we move he starting point to minus about 1050 of our best batters in the season. Here is what we are starting with (assuming no Lowe and FAs leaving) 140 Anthony (303 with a possible sophomore slump coming) 128 Romy (341 with this being a likely outlier season) 116 Abreu (417 with mostly platoon action, when healthy) 114 Duran (696 and some loonies are insisting we trade him) 105 Eaton (90) 104 Story (654 at age 33) 100 Narvaez (446 as a rookie) We need to make up for the loss then double that.

Casas almost always stars out slowly, and I usually berate posters over using small sample sizes, but I do think Casas was coming out of his funk in early '25 before the injury: Last 8 games: .261 2 HRs 7 RBI (.936 OPS thanks to 5 BB and a .414 OBP) The Bobby Dee story scares the beJesus out of me, but I don't think Casas is him. Bobby Dee never carried over his decent OBP from the minors, like Tristan did. I know Casas is quirky and a lumbering load of lard who couldn't field better than anyone's grandma, but the guy is a hitter.

To me, I don't see a plan based on marginally upgrading 4-6 positions through low to moderate deals that are short in length and pretty much guarantee we get no very high quality players, unless by trade. Sure, we might find the next Bregman one and done type signing, but those are not too common and are often not that successful, either. I know some here disagree, but I don't really want to upgrade Anthony in LF, Rafaela in CF, Abreu in RF and Narvaez at catcher. If Story does not opt out, he's a lock at one position- hopefully 2B. I'd add Duran to the list, but with 3 OF'ers and his value lowered by moving im to DH. I think he'll be part of a package to land us a #2 SP. Let's assume that happens, and we look to do thing your way. We can upgrade at 1B, 2B, 3B and DH but no long deals. To do that and still get quality, you have to sign guys that are either too old to get more than 3 years- like... 3B: E Suarez (34 or maybe to play 1B) or who? Urshela at 34 or Vargas at 34? Moncada at 31 for 3 years? 1B: Santana (40) Turner (41) or J Bell (33) Maybe we can get Hoskins (33) at 3 years 2B: Iggy (36) or Adam Frazier (34) Are they better bets than a Romy/DHam platoon? Maybe we talk B Lowe (31) into a 3 year deal. G Torres (29) and Wili Castro (29) will get 4+. DH: Schwarber is 33, but he's getting 4+, so who? Ozuna at 35? Even if we spend over the tax line, you want us to spend on these guys? Maybe Suarez at $18M x 3, Hoskins at $15M x 3 and Ozuna at $14M x 2? Then, what to do with Yoshida, and we'd still need Mayer at 2B or go with Romy-DHam. I just don't see that as enough to get us over the top. We were better with Devers, Bregman, Gio, Ref & Matz. It's not getting better, unless everything goes right. I think we need to bite the bullet on one guy and hope he's not the next David Price. Maybe, he can be the next JD Martinez- the last big FA bat signing. (Story was kinda glove with some bat and $140M/6 was long but not all that large.) Trade for a #2 SP. DO NOT GO LARGE AND LONG ON A SP'er! Then, plan A: Sign one large and long on big bat (Alonso, Schwarber) and another good bat (Hoskins, Suarez, Polanco, Bichette or Bregman) Plan B: one from Bregman or Suarez and then one from Polanco or Bichette and then a decent 1B guy like Bell or Suarez. That's three from the tier below Alonso and Schwarber. I seriously doubt we do this (or plan A.) Plan C: Sign Alonso or Schwarber plus Merrill Kelly (2 yrs) and then trade for K Marte.

I really hope we set our sights higher than Hoskins/Naylor/Bell at 1B. If we don't we better get a damn good hitting 3Bman or 2Bman. I'm thinking E Suarez or K Marte types. I'm not sure that even Bregman and Hoskins gets me all that excited, unless we add a very solid #2 SP'er, too.

If Story bolts, we almost certainly will not add 3 significant infielders. If he doesn't, I doubt we add two, but maybe one major one and an okay one. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope so.

It has to be something stronger than pot. Glad you admitted to it. That is the very first step to recovery.

I was thinking of Uberstine when I mentioned Sandlin & Mullins. I agree, it's not decided, but they seem like very possible candidates to be converted at the beginning of '26. Maybe Uberstine is, or is traded. I could see Crawford moved to the MLB pen to start '26, and that might allow Early to be the 5th starter- assuming Dobbins begins on the IL, but we also have Sandoval, Harrison and Fitts, who could be the first moved to the pen. There are a lot of possibilities and soxprospects.com is just making projections, and they could easily be off the mark.

Does anyone play ball like the ole O's used to do?

No FA pitchers really jump out at me as must have or love-to-have. Some would certainly be upgrades, and a few would even be slotted #2, but those will be very costly. I've mentioned Merrill Kelly, due to his age and shorter term contract outlook. It's not that I want us to continue with the trend of no FA pitcher contracts longer than 2 years, but this time, I'm thinking the trade route looks better. Use all the winter spending budget on bats.

So, is xFIP your go to stat? Sometimes, I'm not so sure. (No disrespect intended)

It can only make sense if all the deals he was working on were MLB players for MLB players. Those aren't normal deadline deals.

Surprising but maybe realistic (long shot) we sign Alonso. I don't think we trade Bello. I think we might trade Crawford with Duran or by himself, but it might make more sense to wait until he proves he's healthy, but waiting might end proving he's not all that valuable.

Good points, but I think Sandlin will stick in the pen. I think Mullins will be in AAA and we already have 7-8 starters there. AA looks packed, too.