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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Wong's D seemed to get better over 2024. He's one of the least played back-up catchers in MLB, so it's hard to find any sort of groove. Even Casas has more PAs than Connor. I'm not making excuses. His O has been worse than horrific. Some say he was lucky, last year. Out of 46 MLB catchers with 280+ PAs, Wong ranks 18th at .723. (Narvaez is 6th at .789) He's having a bad year on O. Even Sandy Leon was never this bad, but Wong has just 98 PAs spread out over 3.5 months.
  2. moonslav59
    What's Wong with Nick?
  3. moonslav59
    One solution would be to get an OF'er to play 1B or bench/trade Yoshida and have an OF'er DH. Toro is in a steep decline even against RHPs. Keep the OF'ers and trade some of our second level prospects to upgrade at a few slots. Decide what pitching prospects don't fit with Brez & Bailey and make room for all these college pitchers we just drafted. Pick up a decent SP and or RP, but don't go overboard. Maybe Sandoval comes through. Let's just cross our fingers and hope. NOT!!! The window is open, now. We've spent 6 years building up a solid young core of mostly everyday players and a pretty decent farm, despite all the graduations and upcoming ones. For years we've been saying and hearing that we draft SSs so we can trade for pitching when the time is right. That time is NOW! Could it backfire? Yes. Is trading several young players for a pitcher a huge risk? YES! Is trying to walk the thin line at the deadline really what some here want? I'm not for blowing up the farm for rentals. This window can stay open for many years. Make a couple moderate rental deals with second tier prospects and one big deal from our OF depth and a non top 5-6 prospect for a controlled pitcher. Call it a day, and let's make a serious push for a 2025 ring. We don't have to make 4 big trades. Keep the farm looking good, but let's fix a couple weak areas and stop counting on returning pitchers from the IL.
  4. moonslav59
    I listed guys from the top 60 prospect list, and maybe I like many more than you. I think it looks decent- 4 teams deep with a few holes, here and there. The pitching staffs do look better and slightly overloaded, but I see some trades coming, maybe some, this month. (Mullins, Paez, Wehunt and maybe Sandlin, Kelly, Guerrero and otehrs.)
  5. moonslav59
    sxoprospects,com has these projected 2026 rotations: MLB: Crochet, Gio (option) Bello, Sandoval, Harrison (Houck, Crawford, Dobbins on IL/inactive) AAA: Tolle, Early, Uberstine, Wehunt, Drohan (Perales/Sandlin swing) AA: Rivera, Clarke, Paez, Valera, Holobetz, Rodgers A+ Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Aita, Tygart, Neely A- Fajardo, Travieso, Ruiz, Patton, Brown, Mayers FCL: Cason, Delzine, Reyes, Zink, Frias, B Morgan Guys like Mullins, Song, Ingrassia, Dean, Rodgers, Futrell, Cohen, Brooks, J Bello, Gartrell and some draftees are listed in the pen.
  6. moonslav59
    We have plenty of slots opening up at the ML level, next year. Some will be filled by returning injured pitchers, but we all know, someone else will be on the IL in '26, '27... Our current AAA rotation is not great. If Harrison and Criswell are not on the ML roster, we'll have those two plus Uberstine. Stock & Coffey can go to make room for Tolle and Early/Sandlin. (Sandlin to the pen?) The AA rotation would still have Mullins, if not traded. Rogers is fungible. Rivera stays. That leaves room for Clarke, Aita and Holobetz to be promoted. Dean is fungible, as is Sprague. Maybe Fajardo or 3-4 college arms fill the rest of the Salem rotation, but we do have Brooks, Ehrlicher, Futrel, Gartell and Cohen there, now. (Some to the pen earlier than we normally do?) You raise some good points. Maybe we start trading away guys like Kelly, Guerrero, Bernardino, Coffey, Mullins, Monegro, Uberstine, Rodgers, Dean and others to make room. Maybe we now see why Brez traded Priester for an everyday prospect and farther away pitching prospect. Maybe see more deals like that.
  7. moonslav59
    I thought your main point was about how weak Salem and I'm assuming GRE, too, next year. The worry is about 4-6 years away, not the next 2-4 years, except corner IF and back-up C. If we were an aging vet team, I'd be more worried than you are, but look at the years of control of our young everyday players in the bigs, plus the ones that just arrived and are pre arbs. I agree that only Arias & Garcia look like solid bets, but I am certain that at least 3-4 from the long list I provided will jump up. Most of the positions I listed went 4 deep. Maybe the A- and A+ teams might be weaker than we would like, but having extra pitchers to rise or trade can help keep the balance, years from now.
  8. moonslav59
    What do we need more to make the playoffs? Anthony on the bench or a solid SP'er, who would bump the 5th starter to the pen, thereby improving it, too? If it's not Anthony on the bench, it's Duran. Rafaela or Abreu v R and Ref v L. I'm okay with benching Yoshida, but we know Cora will play him too much, at a top MLB OF'er expense.
  9. moonslav59
    I clearly value Duran over Campbell/Garcia/Yoshida in LF, but I see Anthony as our LF'er, if we trade Duran. I see the step down from Duran as way smaller than the step up we get with a solid #2 SP'er. That's it in a nutshell. I love Duran. For all we know, Anthony could be a step up over Duran, but likely not for 2025, so I see your worry about messing with out 2025 chances, but again, that huge addition at #2 SP'er is worth it, to me. Now, one could argue about how much better Ryan is than Bello or Gio, right now, and that is a valid point. In the playoffs, Bello or Gio would be the 3rd starter and the other in the pen, which does need help and depth, too. Campbell and Garcia become the #4 and #5 OF'ers you were worrying about, so much. Right now, it's Anthony, Ref and Yoshida/Campbell.
  10. moonslav59
    I think you missed my point. I want to trade away depth from 5 years away for Skenes or Ryan, so we can win in 2025 AND be better in 2026 until Ryan's control ends and 4 years, if Skenes. I was responding to MVPs concern about losing everyday player value on the farm and being overwhelmed by too many pitching prospects as Brez has shifted farm focus towards pitching. My top priority in 2020 was the farm and 40 man roster depth. After 21, I wanted more of the "now," but at the '22 and '23 deadlines I was for selling. Last year I wanted to buy, but not by trading a big 3 prospect. I think I have a balanced approach, but see a window open wide, right now. I'm not for trading top prospects for rentals. I want the here and now, but also a 2-3 year window enhanced. I'm okay with a big trade for a controlled #2, but also a couple rental deals that upgrade us where needed for just 2025. We have some logjams and roster crunches coming up, so we can afford some 3 for one rental deals, and hopefully they work out better than the Luis Garcia and Hosmer deals.
  11. moonslav59
    Tell the Astros, who just keep winning despite having 3-4 of their top 6-7 SP'ers on the IL every minute for the last 3-4 years.
  12. moonslav59
    You make some great points, and I don't disagree with anything, here. While adding a #2 SP'er's affect on rotation depth maybe be less valuable than 5th OF'er depth, I do think these two points override your concerns (and mine.) 1. I think our 5th OF'er will still be better than most teams (after Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu and Refsnyder, we still have Campbell, Yoshida and Garcia- maybe even Romy.) 2. Adding a solid #2 starter is a huge boost for playoff chances and way outweighs 5th OF'er depth. It also pushes Bello to 3 and Gio to 4 or the pen for the playoffs- another big boost. It also offers insurance against an injury by a top 3 SP'er. This trade helps for the playoffs and in getting us to the playoffs plus beyond 2025. I guess I just love looking at a 26 man roster starting from the top 3 in the rotation. Crochet Skenes (Ryan) Bello (Gio for 2025 maybe '26) That is WS winning quality. We have a great closer that will need to be extended or replaced. We have a super young core of everyday players and awesome depth, everywhere but C and corner IF, and I'm not for trading any of that depth. I'm also super high on Garcia as an OF'er and think Campbell is better suited for LF than 1B or 2B, once he gets used to it over CF. Even if Ref retires after 2025, Garcia and Campbell should be fine. Trading or signing OF depth is not expensive, if we need to later on. (Tibbs & Bleis are not far away, either and maybe Cespedes moves to the OF, soon.)
  13. moonslav59
    It's been one season, but counting it as two is fine, since we traded Monty and Teel from previous drafts for Crochet. If we end up with a surplus of good pitching and face roster and Rule 5 crunches, years from now, we can trade some of them at premium prices. I do agree that our 2026 A- and A+ teams may look weaker on O than previous seasons, but I am not so worried, because we have a young core at the ML level that is under control for 3-5+ yrs. Only 3B and SS have vets with 0-2 more years of control. 4-6+ Years from now, we will see some of the top farm guys in the bigs. C: Jo Garcia, Brannon and holes (Salazar and Jo Rod) 1B: Jordan and maybe Tibbs or Gonzales? Encarnacion 2B: Romero (Cespedes?) Zanetello SS: Arias, Soto, Ramos, Nunez 3B: Cason, Alcantara, Anderson LF: Gonzales or Ehrhard(Castro/Rosier?) Riemer CF: Garcia, Azocar, Rivas, Fermin RF: Bleis or Taylor, YRod I'm not sure this looks all that badly, after we will have just graduated Anthony, Mayer, Narvaez and Campbell (Rafaela in '24, Casas in '23, Duran & Wong in '22)
  14. moonslav59
    I'd be leading that pack, but so what? We have the Devers money, and 4 years of control is different from the Crochet situation. Factor 2: Skenes just turned 23! He'll be 27 when he becomes a FA. While that means he will want a monstrous extension, at least it won't be for a 30 year old FA to be. Crochet just turned 26 and he had 2 years of control and would have been going into age 28 at free agency. Ideally, we extend Skenes for just 3-4 years, but he may demand much more. Maybe he'd take a 2 year extension, giving us 6 years of control, and he'd still be looking at free agency at age 29. Big pay day, if he remains great. BTW, someday Anthony will be wanting big money, too, and we have already started hearing extension talks with him and Mayer.
  15. moonslav59
    No Arias, Garcia and Clarke, either. I think any offer without Anthony or Mayer might take this: Campbell & Taylor/Bleis or Arias & Garcia Rafaela &Tolle plus one from Clarke, Valera, Sandlin or Early. I think I'd do a 5 for 1 trade like Rafaela, Campbell, Tolle, Taylor & Early/Sandlin Another idea might be to take some salary off PIT's hands to make it better for them. Instead of one prospect, add Abreu (not expensive) and take back Reynolds, even though I don't want him. Adding Keller helps their budget but would add to the needed prospects. Reynolds is falling off a cliff.
  16. moonslav59
    Of course, and pitchers are dropping like flies, these days. It's a huge risk trading everyday players plus a top pitching prospect for one guy- a pitcher. i'd hesitate to trade Anthony or Mayer, but I like the deals notin is suggesting. My tendency is to just throw more prospects into the mix, so we can keep the best ones, and maybe a team like PIT might like getting 5 really good prospects (from our top 12, instead of 2-3 of our very best 5-6 or 7. A rotation of Crochet, Skenes, Bello looks pretty damn good to me, going forward.
  17. moonslav59
    He's still prearb in 2026! He's got 4 years to go, and we just dumped Devers! He's worth trading for.
  18. moonslav59
    It does seem that way, but our farm needed a "correction," and this has only been through 2 drafts and IFA signing periods, so far. True, most trades have involved adding farm pitching and not trading them away, except the Narvaez and YRod recent deals. Even the Devers trade was for mostly pitching, but that was one big beef about the Betts trade. I think we may see a swing back towards everyday players, once Brez sees a balance. Our farm ranking may look skewed towards pitching, but look at the recent grad list and how many years of control many of our young ML'ers have, right now. We do need to be adding everyday players, now, to replace some of them in 2-5 years, but I think we look covered pretty well for this gap, except 3B and maybe Catcher. C: Narvaez pre arb/ Wong 3 yrs (Jo Garcia) 1B: Casas 3 arbs/Campbell 7 yrs+ (Jordan and maybe Tibbs then Ju Gonzales) 2B: Mayer pre/ Toro-Romy arb/ Romy, DHam, Grissom (Romero) SS: Story 2-3 yrs/ (Arias/Soto/Cason/Ramos) 3B: Bregman 0-2 yrs, Toto/Mayer (Romero?) LF: Duran 3 yrs, Anthony pre-arb (Tibbs/Rivas) CF: Rafaela 6 yrs+, Campbell (Garcia/Azocar) RF: Abreu, Ref 0 yrs (Bleis/Taylor) DH: Yoshida 2 yrs/ Romy 3 yrs (Cespedes?) We just added 2B Godbout, SS White & Martin, 3B Winnay, OF King I think our everyday situation looks way better than most teams. We still need ML pitching more than anything, right now. Our everyday players are locked up, except Bregman and eventually Story.
  19. moonslav59
    You don't trade guys like Skenes, either, but I get you guys' point. I am fine with trading top everyday players for top pitchers, though. A great SP'er often faces 750-850 batters per season, which is more PAs than any batter has ever gotten.
  20. moonslav59
    MIN could not afford Devers.
  21. moonslav59
    You gotta be the leadoff hitter, first, to later be demoted. Duran led off 2 games in 2021, and they weren't to start his MLB career. He hit .215 year one and .221 year two, when he did lead off mostly. He never earned the one slot in those two years. (.324 career OBP/.329 when 1st in order.) Rafaela has batted 1st in 18 or 170 MLB games, almost all year one, when he his .241 (.243 in 1 slot.) Rafaela did not earn the 1 slot, either, until maybe now. Career .288 OBP/ .274 in 1 slot. Few batters start off as leadoff hitters, unless they are late season call-ups. Nobody had to recover from phantom demotions from the 1 slot.
  22. moonslav59
    How have pitchers done with Wong vs Narvaez by OPS Against? Bello: .618 (263 PAs w Wong)/.790 w Narvaez (125) Crochet: .597 (126 PAs w Wong)/ .564 w Narvaez (387) Whitlock: 598(65)/.595 w Narvaez (121) Dobbins: .729 (59)/.709 w Narvaez (197) Weissert: .580 (52)/.762 w Narv (119) Chapman .433 (42)/.392 w Narv (97) Bernardino .762 (41)/.464 w Narv (102) Bello & Weissert do better with Wong, but Chapman and Bernardino do better with Narvaez. The others are close of one pitcher has fewer than 40 PA as a sample size. Kinda even, right?
  23. moonslav59
    Here are some interesting numbers: High Leverage Leaders: 1.042 Resnyder .912 Rafaela .860 Narvaez (Devers .852) .830 Romy .780 Toro .777 Abreu .733 Anthony .689 Mayer .670 Bregman, .650 Story, .606 KC, .601 Duran
  24. moonslav59
    Yipee! We get to keep Duran & Abreu!
  25. moonslav59
    Anthony, Campbell, Sandlin, Paez & Mullins for Skenes & Bednar (Would you sub Clarke, Valera or Perales for Paez or Mullins?)
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