moonslav59

I feel the same.' I'm not sure if the success of Betts has affected my expectations for Beni, but the kid looks pure. I remember saying before 2015, that Betts had a significant chance to be our top offensive player that year. He probably was our best all-around player, and he came close to being out top O guy too. I'm not projecting Beni to be the best anything this year, but he could win ROY. It's possible he could have the second best OPS on the team, but I wouldn't go so far as to say he has a "significant chance" at doing so. (Maybe next year we could say that.)

If he's hitting well enough to bat second, I'd put him first. Pedey's base running is not what it used to be, and it was never really great to begin with. At least vs RHPs, we could squeeze in 2 lefties this way: 1) Beni - L 2) Pedey 3) Betts 4) HanRam 5) JBJ - L 6) Bogey 7) Pablo- L/S 8) Moreland- L 9) Leon- S It's going to be hard to mix up our lefties and righties this year, but I'd try to move Young into the top 5 vs LHPs: 1) Pedey 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) HanRam 5) Young 6) JBJ-L 7) Beni-L 8) Rutledge/Holt-L 9) Leon-S/Vaz

Thanks for the updates.

It might take Beni more than a year to show greatness, but I'm pretty certain it's going to happen.

Sorry for getting snippy. I respect your opinions, but felt you got a little too condescending and presumptuous.

I'm not sure the return we'd get for Holt would be more valuable than he is to us. I'm just guessing his value elsewhere would be more than here, so we should get something good in return. Again, I'd never just hand him away. I'd avoid trading him for a 2 month rental. I think part of my reasoning for bringing up this whole Holt debate is that I have always been very high on Hernandez. I'm pretty sure he's already better than Holt at SS and close to his value at 3B and 2B. I've read scouting reports- some good- some not so good. Maybe I'm too high on the kid. I also read an article about Rutledge, and how Ben always liked the guy and jumped at the chance to get him. It's certainly not his stats (especially his fielding stats) that have made me think he's probably a better platoon partner with Pablo than Holt vs LHPs. I'd probably take Holt over Rutledge vs RHPs, assuming Pablo gets hurt or flops. While it's nice to have a guy that can play 1B in a pinch, we have Moreland & HanRam, and if either gets hurt, I feel Travis will get the nod over Holt. They might even move Swihart to 1B over giving Holt a long stint there. Holt has looked okay in the OF, but he's not great there, and I like Young's offense much better, especially vs LHP but probably vs RHPs as well. If Holt is not the number one go to back-up guy at any position, except 2B and maybe 3B, then I'm not sure his value is as high "on the field" as some might think it is. I get the "clubhouse value". I get the unseen value he has that allows a manager to use other players more freely, knowing he has Holt on the bench to cover multiple positions, in case of an emergency. I'd only trade him, if I think the upgrade we get at the position we traded for is more than the downgrade from Holt to Hernandez/Travis/Devers/Marrero.

Sale will likely face over 750 batters this year. That's more than the amount of Papi PAs we need to fill. Our defense should be better, too. If Young and others can stay healthy, and full years from Beni, Pom, Wright, ERod, Kelly and others can help put a dent in the loss of the great one- Sir David Ortiz.

I've never argued either of those points, but you chose me to rant and rave at. I love Holt. I happen to think he has more value to another team than ours. I gave my reasons why. I feel his value to the team has slightly diminished now that we no longer have a DH-only DH, and guys like Young (4th OF'er), Moreland (1B), Rutledge (3B) and even Hernandez at AAA (SS, 3B, 2B) are all very capable subs- maybe not as good as Holt at some positions- maybe not as flexible as Holt, but as a whole, better than what we've had since Holt joined the Sox. Saying someone's value has slightly diminished, is not saying he's not still very valuable. BTW, I just recently brought in stats on Holt, unless you count games played as stats. (I don't.)

...and, it assumes any stat guy cannot possibly understand the "human element". Like multifaceted humans don't exist.

You are making wrong assumptions...again. I played baseball for 20 years, just not at or above the college level. I played inter hall football (with pads) at Notre Dame and was the starting receiver my fershman year and starting QB my senior year- both championship seasons in a tough league. I was also the starting point guard all 4 years on the inter-hall basketball team that included all state (basketball) players from the ND football team-- very high level ball. I sucked at baseball, but still started on the team every year. And, yes players pout when worse players are chosen to play instead of them or are placed higher in the line-up without merit. I respect team chemistry and have seen examples of the good and the bad. I've also seen teams fall apart due to poor management and choices. I am very in tune with the "human element", so stop pretending you know who I am based on stat laden posts that support what I see on the field. Holt is not our best sub at 5 of the 7 positions he plays. He's probably second best at 4 or 5 of them. He has stiff competition at the other two. He's a great team guy and has a lot of value. I've never said or hinted otherwise. He will likely get more PAs than anyone else on our bench. Young is a near strick platoon player, but I'd still play him FT in LF over Holt, if an OF'er gets hurt. Rutledge will only play at 3B, so his PAs will be limited. I guess, to you, it's not important to keep him "fresh". Maybe you know more about him than I do. maybe the players and coaches all love Holt more. Koom-bee-freakin-yah! I watch every pitch of every single Sox game since the 90's. I have spent way more time playing baseball than looking up stats. I've spent 10 times the amount of time watching Sox baseball than looking at numbers. You don't know me.

Where did I say JF uses stats to make decisions? He's going to play the best sub when ever he can. If you don't think a manager has a depth chart for each position, you must not have ever player high level baseball. I never claimed or implied any Sox sub would have more ABs than Holt, so I'm not sure where that came from.

What's WAPM have for Beni's OPS this year? What would Swihart's WAR be, if he started as a catcher 140 games?

Yeah, let's play Holt a few times a week, because he's so damned respected in the clubhouse. That will make all the benched players that are better than him thrilled. What do I know, I've never player high level baseball, and we all know only real players know anything about baseball. If we have a better player at a particular position, we should play him.

I'm not yet a believer in Holt's OF defense, but he has done pretty well so far out there. In over 1100 innings in the OF, fangraphs has his UZR/150 at -2.4. That's fine for a supersub- 5th OF'er. I agree that Holt's 3B defense is tolerable at 3B, but my guess is Rutledge is a little better. I think Holt has high value as a supersub, but his value to us would be higher, if he was the first back-up at more than 1-2 positions.

That's what I figured.

He's just mad about us being so high on someone ZIPs and Co. aren't high on.

5. Dalbec 6. Raudes (10 on soxprospects.com 7. Chatham (8) 8. Lakins (17) 9. Ockimey (9) 10. Longhi (12) 11. Chavis (11) 12. Johnson (6) 13. Shawaryn (13) 14. Cosart (18) 15. Shepherd (20) 16. Cedrola (43) 17. Bautista (21) 18. Anderson (23) 19. Taylor (31) 20. K Martin (15) No Hernandez in top 30 (7th on soxprospects.com)

Well, 2015 comes after 2014 and he put up a 1.4 WAR in about half a season with Boston. I'm not sure how that hurts his 2017 projections. 2016 was a mess, but he was hurt for much of it. There is certainly still plenty of reason to still believe in at least some or much of the "hype".

HanRam is here two more years and then has a vesting option for 2019. Chances are he will meet the criteria, but it's not a certain 3 years. The club physical could be subjective. Cots: 19:$22M vesting option, guaranteed if Ramirez has 1,050 plate appearances in 2017-18 and passes club physical after 2018 season

Don't get me wrong, I want Xander, Bradley Jr and Porcello along with Betts/Sale (two must gets), but I have a feeling we won't be able to sign them all. Agreed. I order extension value this way (assuming Beni is too far away to worry about now): 1. Betts 2. Sale 3T. Bogey 3T. JBJ 5. ERod 6. Porcello

Chatam and Ockimey at #7 & #9. This is why to me I'd sign Betts, Sale, Bradley Jr and Porcello in that order. Xander is my 5th guy. If Xander costs more than $25M, I'd pass. Our OF depth is very thin in our organization. Dalbec and Ockimey can take over for Hanley when that time comes. If Shaw doesn't pan out at 1B, we can always move Pablo there after HR moves on. Devers should be ready for ML 3B by then. I'm not sure Chatham offers a solution to replace Bogey, but I get your point and don't disagree. I'm not sure I'd put extending Porcello over Bogey, since Porcello will be near the end of prime when his contract expires. Bogey will not.

Yes, his contract is one reason many teams want him- many non contenders. There are also some teams , mostly non contenders, who do not have a sure thing at 2-3 positions of which Holt might play 2 or 3. They'd love to have a low cost guy like Holt knowing that at least one of the 3 big question mark guys might need to be replaced. Holt offers them a one cost guy that is insurance for 3 spots. He could also platoon against RHPs at one position and against LHPs at another position and basically play FT, since his L-R splits are nearly identical. Now, a .705-.710 OPS is not enough to win a FT job on the Sox, except as a catcher, those numbers blow away what several teams had last year at multiple positions. Even some competitive teams had 2-3 non catching positions with sub .700 offense or even much worse. Here's a few examples: KC: 2B .611 SS .642 LF .690 SFG: 2B .682 3B .713 CF .715 LF .720 WSH: SS .681 1B .673 LF & CF .705

MLB pipeline's top 30 Sox prospects rankings: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=bos Dalbec #5! More on prospects... http://m.mlb.com/news/article/216472810/red-soxs-2017-preseason-top-30-prospects-list/

You are using WAR to measure value, and we all know a big component of WAR is playing time. the more you play- the higher the value. Now, we all knwo about Holt's propensity to decline in production after playing more and more, but his defense and better-than-some on other teams production, even when struggling would give him more value to a team with a much weaker bench than ours or with more question marks at positions Holt is best at playing (2B, 3B and LF). Saying a player might have more value on another team is not diminishing his current value on our team. Thinking of trading someone does not mean I value them less than anyone else. I loved Moncada and Kopech, but I love Sale more. I'm not for handing Holt away, but I could see him being part of a mid-summer trade to upgrade at a position of need by more value than the downgrade from Holt to Hernandez would be. Maybe I value Hernandez more than I should or more than some of you guys. I get that, but it's just my opinion.

Again, I am not claiming his value is low for us.... just maybe lower than before and maybe higher for another team that would use him more. You are using WAR to measure value, and we all know a big component of WAR is playing time. the more you play- the higher the value. Now, we all knwo about Holt's propensity to decline in production after playing more and more, but his defense and better-than-some on other teams production, even when struggling would give him more value to a team with a much weaker bench than ours or with more question marks at positions Holt is best at playing (2B, 3B and LF).