moonslav59

I agree. Holt and Devers might get us a decent #3 but not a solid #2. I'm for holding onto Moncada (3B or 1B) and Benintendi (OF) and Espinoza (SP), so it really leaves Swihart. GMs will die to get a catcher these days. They will overpay. I'm fine with including Holt in the package, but I'm not sure any GM values him more than some posters do here. I think a package of .... Swihart Devers 2 from Owens, Johnson & Kopech gets us a solid #2 or low #1 if we add Holt or sub Kelly for a pitching prospect listed above. Could we get Sale for Kelly, Swihart, Holt, Devers and one from Owens, Johnson or Kopech?

Let's see if Holt unravels as the season progresses as he has the past couple years.

My family moved from Milwaukee to Maine in the fall of 1971. Shortly afterwards, the Brewers traded Tommy Harper to the Red Sox. Harper was my favorite player, so I switched to the Sox in 1972. I remember that 1/2 game loss. That has to be the closest any team has ever come to winning a division (short of a playoff game, I guess). Aparicio helped make me a lover of defense, especially at the SS position. Fisk, Reggie Smith, Tiant and Lee. Wow, those were the days. I never thought I'd have to wait over 30 years to see a championship, but it was worth it.

Yes, the catching position is the hardest position to fill, and that is precisely the reason why several GMs will gladly overpay for the hope that Swihart develops into a top 5-10 MLB catcher at a low cost for 4+ years. He will never be undersold due to the high value placed on catcher talent, even if speculative in nature. Add Dever (since he is blocked by several vets and possibly even Moncada) plus the SP'er that will be replaced and one from Kopech, Owens or Johnson, and I think we get someone special.

Yeah, I'm not expecting JBJ to hit .280 with 20 HRs, but .275 15 would be Youuuuge

Imagine if JBJ begins to hit at a level somewhere near the halfway point between last August and this year;s numbers.

I hate to part with Swihart, but I think it's bound to happen. We better not trade him for a two month rental this July, but I'd be fine with making him part of a package to get a high quality SP'er with 2+ years of team control (preferably 3+ years). It's not really worth speculating on who might be on the block this July or December, but I could see Swihart being paired with Devers as h.eadliners to a blockbuster for a second ace or top quality #2

Travis Shaw was my "sleeper prospect" pick years ago, but then I pretty much gave up on him becoming a significant force at bat. I also thought his defense would be unacceptable at 3B, but he's looked better than I expected on D. I'm still not sold on his defense, but he's winning me back on my offensive projections. Keep it up TS!

In a good way, yes. That's also one reason I am against spending large and long on a bat this deadline or next winter. Moncada and/or Benintendi are going to have to knock an established vet off a pedestal anyways, so why add one more big bat to the "block the prospects" list? We should spend every available dollar on pitching. I'm not saying I'm a hundred percent content with our everyday players, but it is what it is.

Who is the worst fielder in the starting line-up and is the guy behind him any better on defense and any good on offense? This is how we determine who will DH once Papi retires. It won't be Betts or Pedey, unless they need a rest, and we need their bats in the line-up. It won't be JBJ, because nobody is better in the field, and he doesn't hit like a DH, except for one 5 week stretch. It won't be Castillo (see JBJ). It won't be Bogey, because the guy that can field SS very well, Marrero, can't hit. That leaves HanRam (1B to DH), Shaw (3B or 1B to DH), Sandoval (3B to DH maybe vs RHPs only) or Young (OF to DH vs LHPs). I guess one could argue Swihart, but he's got a lot to prove with the bat, before I even consider him at DH. Assuming we don't add anyone on offense, I'm looking at a Sandy/Young DH platoon with Shaw getting his share (assuming he keeps hitting)- like it or not. Maybe HanRam and others get a little breather here and there as spot DHs, but the bulk will go to Sandy-Young and some Shaw on the side.

Who is the worst fielder in the starting line-up and is the guy behind him any better on defense and offense? This is how we determine who will DH once Papi retires. It won't be Betts or Pedey, unless they need a rest, and we need their bats in the line-up. It won't be JBJ, because nobody is better in the field, and he doesn't hit like a DH, except for one 5 week stretch. It won't be Castillo (see JBJ). It won't be Bogey, because the guy that can field SS very well, Marrero, can't hit. That leaves HanRam (1B to DH), Shaw (3B or 1B to DH), Sandoval (3B to DH maybe vs RHPs only) or Young (OF to DH vs LHPs). I guess one could argue Swihart, but he's got a lot to prove with the bat, before I even consider him at DH. Assuming we don't add anyone on offense, I'm looking at a Sandy/Young DH platoon with Shaw getting his share (assuming he keeps hitting)- like it or not. Maybe HanRam and others get a little breather here and there as spot DHs, but the bulk will go to Sandy-Young and some Shaw on the side.

I got married in Coyocan to a lovely Mexican woman. We lived in Taxquena before moving to Texas in 2008.

Shaw did make a nice play yesterday, but I've seen him miss a lot of balls most 3Bmen would have gotten to.

I love Swihart, and I'm not for handing him away. Not many teams have two young catchers like Vazquez and Swihart along with a capable back-up like Hanigan. As much as I hate to do it, to get top talent, you have to trade top talent. With Vazquez and Hanigan, trading Swihart makes sense. With Shaw, Sandoval, Holt, Rutledge at 3B and the possibility of Moncada ending up at 3B, trading Devers makes sense. Again, this is not because I don't like him as much as anyone here, but we need a top quality SP'er and it will take giving up guys like Swihart and Devers to get one.

Travis Shaw scares me on defense at 3B. I think that 3B is Moncada's likely landing spot. I'm not a scout, so I'm not sure how strong his arm is for 3B, but I have said for years that the Sox wait too long to move prospects to the positions they likely will be used, Moncada should start playing some 3B and LF. Eventually, Devers might need to get some reps at 1B. I still think if Shaw's bat is for real, he'll end up at 1B.

The Globe site had a lot of great posters. Many came and went as site issues and personal attacks got out of hand from time to time. At this point, there's a solid 10-15 consistent contributors there. If all of them come here, I think you guys will be thankful the Globe site went extinct.

Rebuilding a rotation from the middle or bottom is doomed to failure. In other words, looking to upgrade our number 4 of 5 SP'er slightly is not going to make a significant impact. When you add an ace or solid number two, every one else gets knocked down a notch and improves every lower slot by attrition. It would also slide the number 5 into the long relief role this team lacks. The other idea would be to include someone like Kelly in the deal. The big question would be, what can we get for... Kelly, Swihart, Devers, and any two from Owens, Kopech or Johnson?

I'm still not convinced on Shaw, but his bat is looking more and more legit every day. I don't like his defense enough to view him as a long term 3B solution. Eventually, I see Moncada at 3B (or possibly LF) with Devers in the wings. That leaves HanRam, Shaw and Sandoval sharing 1B and DH duties while backing up 3B as well. Sam Travis has an outside shot of crashing the party as well.

Sorry for joining the conversation late and maybe not getting what has already been said or argued, but my opinion is that our biggest need right now is for a solid #2 SP'er. Even after getting Price, I felt like our biggest need was a number two. On another site, I argued that the Kimbrel package should have been expanded (Devers, Owens, Johnson and or Kopech...) to make a big push for a solid number two (Cleveland had a couple SP'ers on the block) or possibly even another ace like Sale. Who knows what it would have taken to get Carrasco or Sale, and who knows how hard we tried. I'm just saying, I think that was our biggest need. Next winter, our pen may be our highest need area as Uehara and Tazawa's contracts expire.

Yes, I meant their contractual obligation will be gone and in need or replacing. Of course, we could replace their contracts with new ones and keep one or both of them. Uehara will be another year older, so I doubt he'll demand $9M, but if Tazawa has a good year, he'll demand more than he's getting now. My main point was that I think almost all our free agent money will need to go towards improving our pitching staff. The positional players are all locked up for several years with many prospects looking to steal their jobs or be blocked, so I don't see a valid argument for spending long and large on a 1Bman, 3Bman or LF'er next winter.

Other than Ortiz, our starting positional players are all locked up for 3 or more years (counting 2015): 7 years: Price (with 3 year opt out) 6 years: Pedroia 5 years: Sandoval (team option after 4)Castillo, Betts, JBJ, Vazquez,Smith Wright, Elias, Layne 4 years: Ramirez (vesting option after 3), Porcello, Bogaerts, Holt, Rutledge, Workman 3 years: Kimbrel (team option after 2), Kelly, Ross 2 years: Young, Hanigan (team option after this year) 1 year: Ortiz, Uehara, Tazawa First arb year not established: ERod, Swihart, T Shaw, Barnes, N Ramirez and everyone else on the 40 man roster not listed here. In some ways, it's nice to know you don't have any big positional player shoes to fill after Big Papi this winter, but with sunken cost players like Sandoval, Craig and maybe Castillo, HanRam and possibly others, it's hard to not think our budget problems might get worse before they get better. Having Moncada, Benintendi, Travis, Devers and some others on the horizon may help us avoid needing free agents to fill the gaps, but who knows at this point? With our pitching staff, we have a lot more flexibility, but also a lot more need. We can't really count on any of our younger pitchers except for maybe ERod and eventually Espinoza. Porcello could turn into a sunken cost or a huge overpay. Buch's slot will be open this winter or next. Kelly is still largely a question mark. Losing Uehara and Tazawa is going to be hard to deal with. I think the biggest financial expenditures in the near future will have to be on our pitching staff. We're going to have to make do with our line-up for now and hope our top prospects rise quickly to replace the flame-outs and bums.

Just try not to make blanket statements about my views that are blatantly lacking veracity, and I'm willing to try again.

For years I started threads at the Globe's Red Sox Front Burner Forum titled "A Realistic Look at ...." I hope I can continue the tradition here. Here's an updated look at the last one I posted on that site: Regardless of what many Sox fans might believe, the Red Sox have a restricted budget. The sky is NOT the limit. Henry has allowed DD to go over the luxury tax limit, but I seriously doubt that will last going forward (at least by a significant amount). To be realistic, I think we should hold all suggested trades, signings and moves to the standard of not going over the limit by more than about $10M. With that in mind, here is how the luxury tax budget numbers look as of now: under contract (luxury tax not 2016 salary): $187.8M Total $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $16M Ortiz, $13.75M Pedroia, $13M Buchholz, $10.5M Kimbrell, $10.25M Castillo, $9M Uehara, $6.5M Young, $6.2M Craig, $3.6M Hannigan, $3.375M Tazawa, $2.6M Kelly, $1.25M Ross (Note: Craig's contract does not count on the luxury tax budget, if he remains off the 40 man roster, so the luxury number is really $181.2M) The 25 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Holt, JBJ, Workman (DL), Bogaerts, Brentz, Betts, Layne, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Rutledge, Cuevas Add about $14M for these 25 players and the player payroll budget (luxury tax) equals about: $195M Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is... $206M That leaves us about $17M over the luxury tax limit without counting Craig's $6.2M payroll tax number. Looking at 2017, we will not be committed to paying Ortiz $16M, Uehara $9M and Tazawa $3.4M. We have options on Buchholz $13.5M and Hanigan $3.75M. That leaves us at about $29M to replace these players, not counting the expected big rise in the luxury tax limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa. Feel free to comment on my 25 and 40 man roster projections and anything else that has to do with the Red Sox. Let's keep politics and personal attacks off this thread. More to come. Thanks! Sox4ever

I'm new here. I was on the Globe site after moving from Maine to Mexico City in 2004. I needed my Sox fix. I've lived in Sugar Land, Texas for the last 9 years and still need my daily "fix", so here I am. I look forward to some deep Sox discussions. I'm a poster who likes to support my opinions with facts and data, so bear with me, if numbers are not your thing. I will say, I'm not all about data. I played the wonderful game of baseball for over 2 decades before switching to softball as I aged. I realize winning baseball is often related to intangibles that no data can reveal. I'm a huge Sox fan. I used to live in Milwaukee and became a big Tommy Harper fan. My family moved to Maine when I was 12 years old. Soon afterwards Tommy Harper was traded to the Red Sox, and I switched to being a Sox fan. It hasn't been easy. Decades of frustration were followed by the extreme joy of 2004 and the championships that followed, however I moved to Mexico City in late 2004. I quickly found myself missing the water cooler Sox talk, so I joined the Boston Globe Sox Forum. Four years later, my wife, daughter and I moved to Sugar Land, Texas. After over 50,000 posts on that site, I was saddened to hear they were shutting down. So, here I am. I'm looking forward to some spirited debates and more championships to celebrate together.