moonslav59

I recall reading several posters saying something similar to this, "We know for sure that JBJ will never be able to hit ML pitching." I never understand the use of such definitive statements after sample sizes of just 100-500 PAs or even more. I kind of feel the same way about Shaw, but in reverse. I'm not saying I am certain he will come back down to earth, but to me, he has yet to prove he is an .800+ hitter. Minor league numbers are not 100% accurate projection tools, but it is rare than a player deviates wildly from his AA and AAA combined numbers.

Sox OPS leaders over the last 365 days: .990 Ortiz .937 JBJ .863 Shaw .860 Betts .819 Bogey .818 Pedey .770 Rutledge .750 Swihart .733 Ramirez .700 Holt .658 Castillo .626 Vazquez .608 Sandoval .607 Hanigan

The term "ace" is subjective. I called Quintana, Salazar and Carrasco "aces" because they are all top 30 starters. Salazar and Quintana clearly look like aces now. I think Carrasco got hurt. The CWS ended up getting Frazier, so maybe some 3 way deal could have been made with them, but they'd probably have wanted Kelly instead of Owens/Johnson. I'd have done that, even though I love Kelly's future.

Lets look at the Guardians position last winter. The sorely needed a ML ready bat and would have really loved to build their farm blue chip or near blue chip prospects. Anyone calling Swihart, Margot, Devers, Margot and Guerra "B prospects" just because we also had Moncada, Espinoza and Benintendi may not understand prospect terminology. To me, B level prospects might be guys like Owens, Kopech, Marrero, or TBall. Maybe the Guardians wouldn't want Swihart for LF, but the Reds would have loved to get Swihart. They ended up trading Frazer (a 35 HR guy last year) for Brandon Dixon, Jose Peraza and Scott Schebler. Swihart alone probably had more trade value than these 3. Plus, he plays a position of great need in MLB. The Guardians ended up settling on Uribe, who now has an OPS below .600. I think the Guardians have one guy over .750 and are battling to stay above .500 due to a very weak offense. So, we offer Swihart, Asuage and Logan to Cincy. Frazier goes to Cleveland. We then send Cleveland Holt, Margot, Devers, Guerra, and two from Owens, Johnson and Kopech for, hopefully, 26 year old Danny Salazar and his 5 years of team control, but more likely Cleveland might have insisted we take 29 year old Carrasco and his 4 years of team control at a reasonable cost. I think I heard some talk that the Guardians preferred trading Salazar to Carrasco, but I couldn't find any mention of that when I googled it. Maybe Holt could have played OF until Margot was ready and saved the Guardians the $5.3M they ended up paying Raj Davis. With that $5M, the Guardians could have plugged another hole somewhere. Their farm would have improved enormously and they's have Frazier, Holt, Owens and maybe Johnson on thier ML roster this year. Margot, Devers and Guerra in the wings. I think it's tremendous deal for the Guardians... maybe even too much!

Actually, many scouts had Bogey's likely landing place at 3B.

Swihart, Devers, Margot and Guerra were not mid level prospects last winter. Adding Holt plus 2 from Owens, Johnson and Kopech is a powerful package. Explain why you "overpay" when the supply is higher than the demand for RP'ers?

Put the leading OPs guy 9th? Now, I've heard everything. Lord, take me now!

I didn't want Cole for that reason and his steep contract, so I don't think I'm ignoring anything. My pint was that if we could have gotten Hammels for Devers, Kopech, Chavis and Light, certainly we could have gotten someone very very good for 6 of the 8 guys I mentioned. I also pointed out that we could have made it a 6 for 2 deal by taking on a big contract. I didn't really consider Tyson Ross and ace, but I think he could have been picked up, if we took on M Upton's deal or maybe even Kemp (and not signed Young). I'm glad we didn't get him. I didn't consider Shields an ace, but he'd have been a nice pick-up. I guess that's going off topic here. I do think Swihart and Devers had very high stock numbers this past winter. Catchers are rare these days. I heard rumors that Cleveland wanted JBJ and more, and I'm glad we didn't trade Jackie. I do agree that Cleveland and the White Sox were not in rebuild mode, so trading 6 prospects was not enticing to them. Sonny Gray will eventually be dealt, but last winter was probably not the time to convince Billy to take 6 kids. Maybe involving a third team would be needed to take all or some of the prospects and give up a major league piece to the Guardians or White Sox or Mets. I had suggested soem deals involving Cincy and their third baseman going to Cleveland with prospects going to Boston and Salazar coming here, but those deals are hard to make.

Doesn't look too painful to me. Besides, the Sox had better prospects than the Rangers. I think we get way way more for my suggested offer than Devers, Kopech, Chavis and Light.

The Cole Hammels deal shows otherwise, although his contract was steep. I don't disagree that these deals are near impossible to find. Many felt Salazar, Carrasco and Quintana were not ace material, and I was talking more about getting one of those guys than Sale, Gray or a Mets starter. I consider the former 3 aces. We got Pedro for two prospects, but that was long ago. We got Schilling for quantity. I'm not saying it's easy, but I think we may have been able to get Salazar for Holt, Swihart, Devers, Guerra, Margot, Johnson or Owens. When I suggested a deal like this, most posters felt I was offering much to much!

I'm confident JBJ can stay hot for more than a month. He's had two "sick" months over his short ML career, and the rest has been pretty much horrible offensively.

Yes, Shaw was my sleep prospect pick for a couple of years way back when, I lost faith after his series of bad stretches as he reached AA ans AAA, Now, I'n torn.

Updated team OPS leaders: 1.035 JBJ (has now passed Papi!) 1.033 Ortiz (on pace for 3rd best OPS of his career & best since 2007) .979 Rutledge (only 30 PAs) .926 Shaw .884 Bogey .828 Pedey .824 Ramirez .822 Betts .722 Young .664 Holt .626 Vazquez .541 Swihart .533 Hernandez .490 Hanigan Betts is .006 from 5th place now. He's .062 from 4th and 1.004 from 3rd.

I never mentioned the Mets as a candidate for a 6 prospect for an ace deal.

Betts is making a big push to make my first projection a reality.

I think trading 6 of the best guys on my list would hurt like hell. It's hard to build up the farm these days with all the new restrictions on richer teams. I think there must be some 6 for one trades in ML history, especially when most of the players do not need to take space on the 40 man roster, but we could have made it a 6 for 2 deal with maybe the 2nd guy being a salary dump type guy.

The situation has changed in MLB. With so much parity, and some teams going from last to first and first to last nearly every year, hardly any teams can be considered in total "rebuild mode". Maybe a team like the Braves might be considered a team looking 3 years away, but even they were a 90 win team in 2012 and 2013. Plus, they were trading prospects away in some deals last winter. No doubt, it's hard to pry a quality young pitcher from any team these days with just a group of prospects, but teams today are also valuing young talent more and more as richer teams are facing tougher and tougher rules on drafting, international signings and more. I'm done complaining about the Kimbrel trade, but I am totally convinced that a package like the one listed below could have gotten us a very fine pitcher under team control for 3 or more years at a reasonable financial cost. (Not all oif these guys, but depending on who we are asking for 6 or 7.) Holt Swihart Devers Guerra Margot Asuage Logan and one or two from Owens, Johnson and Kopech The other alternative was to try for a deal where we take on salary from a team looking to dump a player(s). An example might have been Jamie Shields with M Upton or Kemp, or maybe trading for Verlander (not off to a good start so far). Even these types of deals are hard to find. The best options seem to be for someone like Sonny Gray or Jose Fernandez. Names like Quintana, Carrasco, Salazar and Kluber were floated around last winter, but it's hard to know much those rumors were real. We may have tried very hard to find a deal for an ace, but I doubt we offered Swihart and Devers plus more. I was very much against trying to get Cole Hamels, because he was getting paid near FA money, and Philly wanted too much, but never the less, he was traded away, so it can and does happen.

Me too. Holt has flamed out. That's a bit premature. He's in a slump. Slumps happen. Whether that slump turns into a death spiral or not remains to be seen, I think he should still be good for a couple good spurts of hitting before we really really need to replace him. I'd bench him as we see what Castillo can do. My guess is Holt would still get another chance to show a hot streak, even if Castillo plays very well.

Me too. Holt has flamed out. Young has improved after a horrible start, but Castillo should get the nod any minute now.

Just so ironic that JBJ has this hit streak and they're comparing his to Dom's and Nomar's and Wade's...and he's hitting for power...two years ago this guy was a bum and some wanted to give him away. Just a cautionary tale about patience and young players. I think sometimes all we fans are a little quick to pull the trigger on a guy. Watched Mets and Wash. for a while last night. Think I heard Mets were down a catcher, former starter out for rest of year? Think they said he'd lost his starting job, but they may need someone. Think we could do anything there? When I hear "catcher down" I immediately think maybe a trade is possible. Mets usually have pitching--don't know about their minor league teams. While some posters were calling JBJ a bum, many GMs kept asking for JBJ when trade talks took place.

You might be getting a little caught up in the numbers-- on pace almost never means anything and certainly not this early in the season. I didn't mean to imply that I expect any of these guys to reach 4 x their current numbers; I only meant to show the pace and balance of so many players on our team. During ST'ing I tried to argue that we had less holes in our line-up than nearly anyone else plus a great bench in case anyone faltered. Well, Sandy and Castillo are not even part of this and 8 guys are on pace for 80+ RBIs! Wow! What a start! I seriously doubt we continue like this, but I'm sticking with my top 3 offense projection.

I don't disagree, but how much longer do we stick with Holt? He's 1 for his last 21 with just 1 BB and 6 for his last 40 with a .200 OBP. What's up with Castillo?

You're probably right. You convinced me. I think Shaw likely gets over 85.