moonslav59

Agree. I am very happy with Brez, despite the Sale and Priester trades and a disappointing deadline day. I like our team and really like our future outlook. IMO, Brez did nothing to hurt our future at the deadline, so that part is fine. I think he'll get bold, this winter with signings and a big trade or two.

We seemingly got more for Devers than we did in any other vet trade since maybe Betts, but the again Jeter Downs sucked. Okay, Vaz for Abreu was better. We got Wink & Franchy for Beni. We got DHam & JBJ for Renfroe. We got Fitts and Weissert for Dugo. (Is that better than Harrison, Hicks, Tibbs and J Bello?) We got Grissom for Sale (not a prospect) I see the trade as largely a salary and attitude dump. I do think they feel we will end up with a couple plus players, perhaps Harrison and Bello. Hicks was a flyer and partial salary offset. Tibbs is already gone for a rental.

I think he can be "faulted" for being reluctant to trade an OF'er, when we have 4+ of them, but it is "understandable. (I think one gets traded, this winter, so it might not be based on "reluctance." I may have been based on the idea that Rafaela may be needed at 2B more than any of us want that to be. I agree on not trading top pitching prospects for a rental anything, but trading one or more for a controlled pitcher would change that dynamis, to me. I know it's easy to speak in theory, but I think we could have added someone like Mullins, Paez, Monegro or Wehunt to get a slightly better pitcher(s) than Matz and May. I would not have added Early or Valera for a better rental. Sandlin, maybe. Not Tolle or Perales, for sure. I also wonder what adding Garcia or Romero might have netted us. I doubt adding Castro, Cespedes or even Blies would have given us a big uptick, but who knows.

Criswell was much better as a SP'er in 2024. 3.49 as SP (.726 OPSA) in 85 IP 7.53 as RP (.900) in 14 IP Tiny 2025 sample size: 1.29 SP in 7 IP 5.06 RP in 11 IP Career: 3.54 in 97 IP as SP (.739 OPSA) 6.05 in 58 IP as RP (.864)

I guess that explains the implosion. It might have helped, if he had the surgery in May, but such is life. 2027, here we come!

Barely good enough to make the 5th or 6th playoffs slot. (maybe 50% odds) Slight chance of still winning the division (maybe 15- 20%)- thanks to TOR not being bold at the deadline. The chances of going to the WS are slight (5-10%)- winning it is an extreme longshot (1-4%), IMO. Had we traded for Ryan or Keller and a decent 1B platoon, I think we'd be top 3 in the AL with much better odds of winning the AL (maybe 25-35%) and a decent chance at a ring (10-20%) I looked at fangraphs after writing the above, and they have this... Odds of making playoffs: 90%+ DET, TOR, NYY & HOU (in that order) 82% SEA 66% BOS (9% chance to win ALE. TOR 58%/NYY 33%) 35% TEX 15% KCR & CLE Win WS 10% NYY 7-8% SEA, DET, TOR (in order) 3% BOS 2% TEX NL Teams winning WS 20% LAD 12% PHI 7% NYM, CHC 5% SDP, MIL Basically, 10 teams have a better chance at a ring than us, but 4 AL teams do.

I'm in the minority, but I like the yellow jerseys. The green are okay.

We are essentially paying Sandoval about the same as Giolito ($18M/yr) Previous 2 years before signing: 4.89 (86 ERA+) Giolito 4.70 FIP in 346 IP 4.45 (98) Sandoval 4.07 in 224 IP (significantly less IP, but a better pitcher) Previous 3 years before signing: 4.43 (96) Giolito 4.39 in 525 3.84(110) Sandoval 3.68 in 373 (Still less IP but even better numbers) Previous 500 or so IP 4.43 Gio (2022-2024) 3.80 Sandoval (2021-2024) Still 60 less IP from Sandoval, despite adding one more year. Sandoval was bad from 2019-2020.

Read the opinions at the time of this trade. I don't see anybody all that upset about the trade. Most did not comment, so I'm not sure how upset anyone really was.

He only has to be better than our #5 SP'er: Buehler or May. To me, we have to give Buehler another start or two. We traded for May, so they will give him a look, and probably more than just 1-2 starts. Criswell may not get another start, this season. There is also Harrison looking to get a shot. I've been higher on Criswell as a SP'er than some, here, but with the May trade, I'm not seeing him as being a top 5 option by Cora & Brez. That could change.

Just less than a third of the season to go, so a lot still to be determined. Our last few seasons have seen some epic failure to end the season, but this team has a different "feel" to me. Our pitching is ranked: 3rd in ERA- (88) Pen 2nd/SP 9th 10th in fWAR (not far from 7th or 8th or 12th) SP: 16th/Pen: 5th 10th in xFIP and 13th in FIP We've let up 65 unearned runs and many more that were more on the D than the pitcher. Top AL contenders UnERs allowed 65 BOS 50 SEA 41 DET & NYY 35 HOU & TOR 32 TEX Fangraphs has our offense ranked 11th (not really close to 10th.) We are ranked 7th in everyday player fWAR due to an questionable ranking of 3rd in DRS. We are 10th in wRC+, but just 1 behind DET & PHI and 3 behind the NYM. We are 5th in OPS at .753, but the home .787 OPS skews those numbers. We are 10th in away OPS, so to me, we look a lot like the 10th best offense in MLB and the 10th best staff in MLB. That's not too bad, since a balanced team seems to do better than ones with major weaknesses.

It's doubtful he pitched in 2025 (CBS says "out for season"), so my guess is, for now, it's Opening Day 2026.

He can't pitch for 5 more days is all I got.

Just one good start by Criswell is enough for me to put him above May & Buehler. That's how badly I view our 4-5 slots, right now. I have way more faith in Buehler than May. Don't ask me why.

All of these guys listed could see a MLB GS in 2026. That's pretty impressive rotation depth. Add Giolito, since I doubt he reaches 140 IP for 2025, which would make the 2026 option mutual. He'd need 66.1 IP over his possible 10 more GS. Maybe Wink might be a SP in '26. It's hard to know if Crawford & Sandoval will be ready on opening day, and Houck is a total mystery, but all 3 have legit claims to a rotation slot. I'd slot a 100% healthy staff like this: 1. Crochet 2. Giolito 3. Bello 4. Houck (making an assumption, here)/ Tolle, if he's ready. 5. Dobbins (also on the IL) 6. Sandoval (same here) 7. Crawford (once again) 8. Harrison 9. Fitts 10. Tolle (by May or June) 11. Perales (by July) 12. Criswell 13. Sandlin (more ML ready than the two draftees, IMO) T14. Witherspoon, Clarke and Early The pen list is longer, even without including converted SP options. It's not as high quality, though, especially w/o Chapman & Wilson.

Promoting Mayer, earlier, might have helped, too. I agree on Anthony. The Sale and Priester trades hurt us, badly, but IMO, Brez has made way more plus moves than bad ones, and not just Crochet. Bregman, Chapman & Wilson to name just 3. (I was not high on the Chapman & Wilson when signed.) Narvaez was brilliant. Plus, it was the Yanks we robbed. Sticking with Rafaela & finding PAs for Romy vs lefties. While the farm's pitching improvement is speculative, I feel he has already flipped the script on a decades long issue with developing good to great pitchers on the farm. Even if we fail at this, I applaud the immense effort made to boost the staff, at every level. Okay, the Sale and Priester deals hurt like hell. He's barely traded pitchinga way, and those two ended up being bad choices to trade. Other pitchers traded included pitchers coming back, except for the O'Neill trade. (Maybe I missed another one.) Brez has added these pitcher w MLB IP for the Sox from '24-'25 (30+ IP): Crochet, Chapman, Giolito, Wilson, Criswell, Fitts, Buehler, Sandoval, Slaten, Weissert & Booser Chase Anderson & Newcomb 5-25 IP: I Campbell, Hicks, Burdi, Hendriks, Paxton, B Keller, B Horn, Alcala, L Garcia, L Sims & Priester While Bloom set the bar very low, this is a pretty good report card. In just 2 seasons, he's added these pitching prospects (SP.com rankings) 1. Tolle 4. Witherspoon 6. Clarke 9. Sandlin (trade) 15. Phillips 16. Eyanson 20. Fajardo (trade) 27. Delzine 28. Wehunt 29. C Cason 34. Holobetz (trade) 41. Travieso 45. J Bello (trade) Futrell, D Reyes & B Morgan Gartrell, Cordero, Aita, Tygart, Brooks, Foutch, Finley, Patton, Neely, Judice & others I gotta say, that's an impressive 2 years of additions.

Not as bad as the Sale trade. LOL!

I think I'd rather give Criswell another start or two over May, but I doubt that happens. Criswell does much better starting than in the pen. He was one of our top 3-4 SP'ers, last year in many categories. Out of our 5 SP'ers in 2024 with 85+ IP, here is how Criswell did: 2nd in ERA (3.49) to Houck (70 points higher than #3 Pivetta at 4.19.) 2nd in ERA- at 83 (Pivetta was 100, Crawford 104 & Bello 107) 3rd in HR/9 (1.06, just 0.01 from Bello at #2) T4th in OPS Against (.726 w Pivetta and just .002 from Bello and .024 from Crawford) 4th in FIP (4.21, just .02 from Bello & .06 from Pivetta) 4th in WHIP (1.235)

I think we slightly improved, on paper, but all the other AL contenders improved by more, except maybe TOR. In past years, we've hoped and waited on returning players from the IL to give us a late boost. Last year, we hoped Devers would get over his injury issue that caused his major slump. It never seemed to happen. This year, all our major injury pitchers are expected to be done for the year, so that hope is nonexistent. Crawford, Houck, Sandoval & Dobbins are 2026 hopes, now. Where can we look for in system help or upgrades? 1. Mayer is our best hope at significantly upgrading what we have at 2B, now. His return would also allow Romy to DH or play 1B vs LHPs, thereby improving those slots in the line-up. 2. Campbell at 1B has to be done, ASAP. Toro helped us for a bit, but it's time to move on and give KC another look-see. 3. Buehler needs to pitch like last October for August, September & hopefully another October. 4. Criswell, May or Harrison have to be decent #5 starters or possible long men help in the pen. Criswell has not been able to do that, May seems like a starter only type. Harrison seems more fungible. 5. Burdi, Kelly or Guerrero offer little hope, but I'll mention them anyway. Both are on the IL. I think Burdi & Kelly are rehabbing. Maybe they never get another look, since we added... 6. Matz. Another LH'er joins the pen. It never hurts to have another arm, and our pen has been saving our asses for almost the whole year, so IMO, it's hard to imagine seeing our pen do better or "upgraded," but improving the odds we do the same is a step in the right direction. We can't see any major regressions from our younger players, as the dog days or August are upon us. We can't see any major injuries. We've reached our quota, already. Bregman, Story, Duran and the other vets must show leadership, grit and production over the next 2 months. I think we have a shot to make the playoffs, and maybe the "crapshoot" theory knocks me upside the head, this year.

We coulda... Brez shoulda... I woulda... Yes. You are right.

We keep relying on has been pitchers to somehow regain their past level of performance. They come cheaper for a reason.

I realize, now, that my anger over the lack of significant moves at the deadline caused me to vent. I still think we had some minor pieces we could have parted with to get a better platoon 1Bman and could have added a mid level prospect or two to get a better pitcher than May and or Matz, but as I said before the deadline, we only have two major weak areas (I think 1 but maybe 2 moderate ones.) 1. solid SP 2. 1B platoon 3. RP 4. maybe back-up C We slightly improved on #1 and #3, but my view today is, we still have 2 weak areas. ONLY 2 significant weak areas. That's really not all that bad. Other teams, even some who made some major moves, still have 2 or more weak areas, as well. Maybe the sky is not falling, afterall.

Casas and Devers forced the need for Toro to play 1B. The Bregman injury forced him to play some 3B, since Mayer was not called up, right away. Keeping Toro playing, while he cannot hit is on Cora and Brez. It's not about assigning blame, to me: it's about fixing the problem, now, with the best options we have in our system, now that the deadline in passed and nobody on the waiver wire looks better than Campbell.

It's our only hope for 1B, unless Toro has another hot streak in him. (His last one was not as long as it seemed.) I broke down his OPS into 4 sections: .638 in 1298 career PAs before 2025. Many times, I discount a players first 300-600 PAs due to the "learning curve," but it would barely change Toro's number. (He was .657 in his first 561 PAs, so he actually got worse in 2022 to 2023.) .538 in first 26 PAs of 2025 1.031 in next 69 PAs .576 last 139 PAs (by far, the largest sample size of my 3 picked samples for 2025.) Here are some other breakdowns of 2025: .928 after 95 PAs (27 games) .576 in last 139 (37 games) Half and half? .835 first 32 games .572 last 32 games Breaking down those last 139 PAs,, is he getting worse or not? .595 in 68 PAs (from game 27 to 45) .478 in 67 PAs 9from game 45 to last night) This is Wong or DHam bad. I have nothing against Toro. He filled a big need at 1B and 3B, this year. He is what he is, and we should and must do better at 1B. Romy is doing great, but he's a RHB like Campbell, and we have a hole at 2B with Mayer's injury, so Campbell needs to start playing 1B FT, starting yesterday!

That wasn't my point. The point was that Romy still would have played somewhere had we not traded Devers- not so for Toro, except when Bregman was hurt. Had Devers played 1B, there would be no room for Toro, except at 3B or 1B due to injury or maybe rest games.