moonslav59

Agreed- maybe even .850. I also think Masa could hit .800, but there is more to value than OPS.

We filled the 1B opening with a 1Bman who has some very nice numbers. We did not miss getting a solid #2 SP'er by too much, but I do think we fell short. I doubt Oviedo makes up that differential. We still need that big bat and a 2Bman or 3Bman. To me, KMarte fills both roles, but that seems like s long shot. His long contract sucks, but the AAV is not too bad, and could be lessened, if we give back Duran or Rafaela plus Crawford. (They won't take Hicks, even if we add another sweetener. I'm not optimistic, but there are still options out there.

To me, the subtracts are worse for us than the lack of additions.

All 3 teams added 2 players better than Gray and Contreras?

The Yanks have no re-signed or replaced Bellinger or Grisham, plus others. How come when Sox pitchers are returning from injury, you expect crap? Yes, TOR signed Cease, but he's no sure bet, and they still have Bichette unsigned. They have been bold. I do agree, as of now, we are not better than 2025, but Brez has been busy and has made some quality additions- just not top quality. I have said we need top quality not quantity, so I will not be happy, if we don't add a quality bat or #2 SP'er, but there is time.

Other teams lost big talent, too. Answer the question.

So, only two teams have done that, right? PHI & BAL. Maybe 3, if you count Cease to TOR?

Nice effort, here, but I doubt we can make that happen. If he's going to get $150M/5 somewhere, I'd rather give him $160M/6 than $130M/4. (I would not do any of these.)

Exactly. This is the reason a trade makes sense. Another team needs him more than we do.

He traded a lot, but none really amounted to much. The ones he kept did better. That being said, there was a big gap between Devers and the Houck/Duran adds.

Brez really dislikes 3+ year deals. The age seems secondary. He did sign Chapman and extend him. He did trade for 1-2 years of Sonny Gray. It's the years and not so much the age.

Yes, I figured more than twice the value: $29M/2 O'Hearn $12-14M/2 Yoshida. Originally, I thought Yoshida might be worth 1/4 to 1/3 that.

I wonder what our % of revenue was at in 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018.

Why didn't we offer even 4 years, last winter? We only offered 1-3 years- his choice. He's a year older and missed 50 games due to an injury. I'm leery of 4 years, but would do it. I might offer the 5th year with a team option and $5M buyout, but that's tops for me. I'd prefer 3 with a mutual option 4th year.

It's possible Duran will hit .775 in 2026, since he hit .774, this year. Yoshida has a .762 career OPS, so expecting .775 from him in 2026 is pretty close. Of course, Duran adds tremendous speed and can create runs out of nowhere. My point is this? How much is Duran worth to another team as an OF'er vs how much he upgrades our DH position from a .775 Yoshida (with Casas/Romy as DH depth?) The answer seems obvious. We need to trade an OF'er, and it does not have to be Duran. The others offer better D than Duran.

I think Lodolo is a legit #2. He has 2 arbs left to Duran's 3. It's kinda hard to know if 2025's "career year" will be his best, but he apparently has real good "stuff." His 2.8 fWAR ranks 35th, so that looks like a #2. He had a 3.78 FIP (40th) He was 25th in xFIP. If you combine 2024-2025, he still ranked T36th in fWAR at 4.9. He's 32nd in FIP at 3.85. bWAR gave him a 4.9 for 2025! (6.1 for '24+'25) I'd make this trade, but the pressure would be even higher to find a boost for the line-up with no Duran, Bregman, Devers, Ref and N Lowe and just Contreras added.

Wow! O"Hearn gets $29M/2 from PIT. He's 32 and mostly a DH/1B/RF. 122 OPS+ since 2023. 46 Hrs and a .788 OPS. Yoshida has a 109 OPS+, 29 Hrs and a .762 OPS over the same timeframe. He's also 32. Makes me think maybe Masa could be worth $12-14M/2 to somebody. ( i was thinking more like $8-10M/2, before this news.)

Risky but not likely giving us nothing of value after 2 years.

If it’s 6 years we have zero chance, 5 years maybe 10% chance, 4 years maybe 25% and 3 years maybe 50% tops, but I doubt he takes 3, if longer offers are out there.

You may be right, but 2-3 moves can and should help the team, but as of now, I agree we have not done enough to get us "over the top." I'm not certain we are done. I'll hold off being so certain about JH having no winning priority until the winter is over. The one piece of evidence I have is what JH allowed, last winter- just after extending Devers to 10 years and an AAV nearly 50% higher than the previous Sox record contract: Bregman shattered the AAV record contract by a Sox signing or extension Buehler was the highest AAV paid to a FA SP'er since Price and 3rd highest among all SP'ers in Sox history. This was also accompanied by the Sandoval deal. While both failed (Sandoval, so far) it did show a "priority" to spend to try and win. The Chapman signing and extension was no dumpster dive, either. Now, Breggie, Devers and Gio (Buehler too) are gone, and JH's intentions are back to the forefront, again, but there is no way any of know what he will do to replace their contracts. I don't blame you for assuming he won't spend, but you sound like more than assuming. You sound very certain, and I think that is unfounded. I hope you are wrong, and I think you hope so, too.

I mentioned age for Bichette, but do you really think of all the available FAs since the Yoshida signing, he's "the one?" (Maybe he is. I prefer he not be.) Bregman was not offered 4-5 years, last winter, and now he's a year older. For this reason, I doubt we get him. Of course he'd bring the pluses you mention, as would Bichette in his own way. I don't see either as "the guys" JH throws his philosophy away on. Bregman is the more likely option of these two. I think JH would rather sign E Suarez to 2 years than either of these two for 4-5 or more years. Just my opinion.

Nice post and story. I think we will add a FA or two, but just under 4 years. (Maybe E Suarez and 2-3 yrs or Bassitt on a 1 year deal- maybe both, if we make another trade involving Crawford or Harrison and an OF'er.) I do not see us signing Bregman or Bichette or trading for 5 years of KMarte and his contract. I do think we can make one or two more significant trades without ruing the farm & future, but we have already compromised some of the future for 1-2 years or Gray, 2-3 years of Contreras and 2 years of Oviedo. We've shifted and replaced some farm pieces, but we still have Tolle, Early, Arias, Witherspoon, Valera and Gonzales. We replaced perales with Bennett, so we still have a very solid top 6 and some very promising other prospects farther away. The other point to be made about trading away prospects is that we just graduated so many prospects that will be paid very little and have 5-6 years of control. Plus we've locked up 4 younger players: Anthony, Campbell, Bello & Rafaela. If our recent grads were still prospects, we'd be a top 2-3 farm, if not #1. Anthony, Mayer, Narvaez & Campbell just graduated. (2 are signed long term) Abreu, Rafaela & Slaten graduated last season. (1 is locked up long term) Duran, Bello, Crawford & Casas graduated in '22 or '23 and have 3 or more years of control. (Bello was extended long term) That's 9-11 solid players that will not cost much for 3 or more years. We do have some key players losing control in the next 1-3 years, but not some wild amount and not the best of our best: 1 year: Whitlock is very important. Sandoval is not. 1-2 yrs: Gray, Chapman 2 yrs: Oviedo, Houck (out for '26) Yoshida, Hicks (Only Contreras seems important) 2-3: Story 3: Duran, Crawford, Romy, Casas, Wong Compared to other teams' situations, we look pretty well off, in terms of not having to replace lost and key players to free agency. Some losses, like Sandoval, Yoshida and Hicks might be beneficial due to their contract costs vs value provided. Others like Gray, Oviedo, Houck and Story look to be close to equal vale vs cost to replace. Chapman and Whitlock are the difficult one. (I'll not speak to the 3 years players, right now.)

Good call: 51. Morgan 59. Finley I see soxprospects.com added D reyes to #60 by attrition, due to the losses of Fajardo & Aita in the Contreras trade. I'm going to project these moves: Falls: 2. Arias falls to #6-10 9. Sandlin falls to around #20. 13> 25 Romero 14>30 Uberstine 15>26 Drohan 18>40 Bleis 19>39 Cespedes & 22>50 Castro ________________________ Risers: 5>3 Valera 8>5 Soto 12>8 Godbout 16>10 Holobetz 20>11 Azocar 23>15 Delzine 24>19 Ramos 25>20 Rivas 26>12 Jo Garcia 31>22 A Guzman 32>23 L Heyman 51> 33 Morgan 57>31 Patton

10 trades in less than 5 weeks!!!! Hoppe for Heyman Bernardino for B Ward Murphy for Ro. Hernandez Guerrero for T Gray (Plus, non-tendered Lowe & Wink, DFA'd Criswell & lost Paez to Rule 5.) Fitts & Clarke for S Gray Jh Garcia & Travieso for Oviedo, Samaniego and A Guzman Grissom for I Jackson Riemer for R Watson (Rule 5) Perales for J Bennett Dobbins, Fajardo & Aita for Contreras That's 14 players traded away in less than 5 weeks! 12 players added- likely 4 to make the 26 man roster.

I get that, but apparently he was left on the IL while he built up throwing arm strength so he could play LF. (Very strange choice.) We had a logjam in the OF and Devers at DH, so that is likely why Masa missed so much time in 2025. I'm not high on Masa. I just think we can get something for him, even if it's just $2-4M a year in salary relief. (I think more like $4-5.5M.) I also think that after trading an OF'er, the Masa-Campbell 4th OF'er platoon gives Masa more value to the team than as a 5th OF'er option. If Casas rakes at AAA, that OF value might not be enough to keep Masa around, but IMO, he won't be DFA'd unless he sucks (under .725 or 750) to start off 2026.