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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    It's all so confusing. No sites agree on almost any salaries and AAV numbers. I used to trust cots, but they seem to be wrong a lot. If the money was even, I might think of the trade of Masa & Hicks for Arenado, as bad as his bat looks, but only because we free up a roster slot. Sure, a simple DFA could do that, and we will have Houck's slot open once he hits the 60 Day IL when the season starts. I don't think we have a 40 man roster crunch, but we kinda have a 26 man crunch, especially if we add an infielder without trading an OF'er. One thing that works is starting the year with Casas and or Masa at AAA to see what we have with both. There is no hurry to trade one, now. Even if we sign Bregman, Bichette, Okamoto or Suarez, we can easily DFA someone else.
  2. moonslav59
    First, we have to know if Casas is or can be healthy. If the answer is no, I still cringe at a plan with Duran as our primary DH- not because I don't think he's good enough, but more out of the idea that his value to another team as an OF'er is so much higher, and we have great needs at a couple roster slots, that trading Duran would make more sense than DH'ing him. If we trade Duran, and Casas is not healthy, then Masa has some value to us as a DH- probably more value that we'd get by trading him to save $4-6M a year.
  3. moonslav59
    You both can be right on this. I do think Santander was meant to be the FT DH, so notin is right on that, but Springer became the FT due to injury, so your point is correct, too. It looks to me, like half or more teams go into the season planning on having one guy DH 140+ games. Did the Sox plan on Masa DH'ing 140+? Did they end up pivoting to planning on Devers to DH 140+, once Casas got hurt and Masa was on the 60 IL? Who's side is supported by the Sox case? (It looks like both are, to me.)
  4. moonslav59
    I have never argued against the idea that JH can and should spend more. To me, that is seperate from going on the assumption that he will not and basing suggestions on that assumption. If Jh allows us to go up to but not over the second line- GREAT! I hope he does. I think he should. I don't think he will. Going on an assumption is not tactic approval of the budget choices made. I have made the point that all owners can spend more than they do, so why does our situation make it any worse or better? Yes, we have more revenue and way more revenue than most teams, but their owners are pretty damn rich and some even richer than JH. Plus, we do spend way more than 1/3 of the teams in MLB. (This is not in any way meant to support the idea that spending less is okay. It's just to provide a context I think is missed by some. JH could easily spend $30M more, but so could every other owner, and whare would that place the Sox, if all of them did?)
  5. moonslav59
    I get the love for the younger Bichette, but I'm not for making him the one exception made to the no large and long deal philosophy. He lacks the power we need. He's not a plus defensive SS and may not be at 2B, either. He's probably getting 7 years. I'd rather get Bregman for 5, Suarez for 2-3 or trade for Marte or Donovan. I'm not sold by the Vientos power numbers, either. He should play 1B not 3B, but I guess that same could be said of Suarez and Okamoto.
  6. moonslav59
    Yes, I noticed the XBH numbers are pretty similar, and while HRs are way better than doubles, doubles and triples are very nice... XBHs Per 162 games 2024-2025: 62/ 16 HRs + 46 2B+3B Bichette 50/ 24 HRs and 26 2B+3B Abreu 51/ 26 HRs and 25 2B+3B Contreras 65/ 28 Hrs and 37 2B+3B Bregman 62/ 31 HRs and 31 2B+3B Vientos 70/ 34 HRs and 36 2B+3B Devers 73/ 36 HRs and 37 2B+3B Alonso 70/ 40 HRs and 30 2B+3B Suarez 73/ 40 HRs and 33 2B+3B K Marte 49 HRs and 24 2B+3B Schwarber
  7. moonslav59
    Is BOS one of the teams Okamoto is visiting? Anyone know?
  8. moonslav59
    If we don't add an infielder, then I'd prefer Arenado over Masa & Hicks, but why would STL want to pay $20M more, when they are trying to dump a bad salary?
  9. moonslav59
    I'm not sure what Arenado gets paid. cots says $27M for 2026 and $15M for '27, and his AAV is 30.6 AAV for '26 and '27. That's $42M/2 and $30.6M x 2 on the tax line. Yoshida and Hicks both have 2 years left, also. They total: $30.6M each year. That's $61.2M/2 and is way more than Arenado. There is a difference is on the tax line. Arenado is $30.6 x 2, but Yoshida+ Hicks is $28.3M. If it's about tax avoidance, Yoshida and Hicks are slightly better- moneywise. If it's about actual salary paid, we could save almost $20M by doing the trade. (The tax would not be that much.) We also save a roster slot in a two for one trade, and have a player than can at least play defense at 3B and 1B. It's a close call, to me, but I think I'd trade Hicks and Masa for Arenado, but I wouldn't do it so Duran can DH. I'd still trade an OF'er and DH Casas/Romy/Campbell.
  10. moonslav59
    Who are we overvaluing, then? Granted, when I include Cespedes and his whopping $9M BTV, I'm playing around, but I think most of my serious trade suggestions do not overvalue Sox players. I may get it wrong on what the other team needs or how much they value the return package, but almost all my suggested trades give more BTV away than we get back.
  11. moonslav59
    Very true. I've wanted 3 infielders, all along. We got Contreras for one. I doubt we get two more. I'm hoping for the one to be a major impact guy.
  12. moonslav59
    Easy to say. Trading Masa means we pay all but $4-7M of his $18M a year. That does not create the budget room for something major. The "big pockets" argument makes a ton of sense, but if JH doesn't see it that way, it's not happening. Trading Hicks might help us save another $2-4M on his $12M a year. Combined, that might save us $10M, We have $4-5M before tax line one. We may need to trade Duran ($7.7M) or Rafaela ($6.3M) to do something bold. If we knew the budget was the second tax line, I think we can cobble something good enough, but that may not be the case.
  13. moonslav59
    I can't see us winning the Bregman sweepstakes, but I agree that he is our first choice. We may be waiting for his decision before moving on to the next plan. Whether we get Bregman or not, Mayer is a big part of the plan. Yes, Breggie would force Mayer to 2B, and no Breggie might force him to 3B. I like Mayer/Romy at 2B more than 3B, but finding a 2Bman might be easier and cheaper.
  14. moonslav59
    I get that and don't really have an issue with it, but when you continually explain the motivation is not to get a trade right but just to have some fun, yet we keep hearing the same misrepresentation over and over, it get's a bit weird.
  15. moonslav59
    PIT is making moves for the here and now. You may be right about them wanting more for the 6th overall pick, but not Duran. (I may be overvaluing Duran, but I think you undervalue him.) I doubt the Sox are looking to trade for a guy drafted out of HS, this summer. I'd take Keller and Donovan for Crawford, Witherspoon & DHam in a heartbeat.
  16. moonslav59
    I could see that, too, but if it's all about money, we could trade an OF'er, save money and have better 2Bman/3Bman and overall starting 9 on offense.
  17. moonslav59
    Per 162 games 2024-2025: 16 HRs + 46 2B+3B Bichette 24 HRs and 26 2B+3B Abreu 26 HRs and 25 2B+3B Contreras 28 Hrs and 37 2B+3B Bregman 31 HRs and 31 2B+3B Vientos 34 HRs and 36 2B+3B Devers 36 HRs and 37 2B+3B Alonso 40 HRs and 30 2B+3B Suarez 40 HRs and 33 2B+3B K Marte 49 HRs and 24 2B+3B Schwarber
  18. moonslav59
    Interestingly, one could easily claim Bello and Gio were slotted 4 and 5, if everyone was healthy. 1. Crochet 2. Houck (He was the "ace" of 2024.) 3. Buehler (The highest AAV given to a FA Sp'er since Price.) 4. Giolito 5. Bello (Crawford was viewed as a possible #4/5, depending on if you viewed him through the '23 lense or the '24 one.) We'd have done great had our #2 and #3 SP'ers did well. Our 4 & 5 carried us. Also, Dobbins (11 GS,) Newcomb (5,) Early (4,) Harrison (2,) Criswell (1) and de Leon (1) combined for 24 GS and 117 IP and a decent 3.76 ERA. This is what killed us: 8.04 Houck (9GS/43.2IP) 5.40 Buehler (22GS/110IP) 7.84 Tolle (3GS/10.1IP) 5.68 May (5GS/25.1IP) Fitts was not great in 10 GS (4.83 ERA)
  19. moonslav59
    I predict he's a suspect lefty and righty.
  20. moonslav59
    My suggestion gives them a good pitching prospect plus your fave--- DHam.
  21. moonslav59
    Here's my "Ole Red Midnight Special" To BOS: Donovan & Mitch Keller To PIT: Crawford & Witherspoon To STL: DHam and Seth Hernandez
  22. moonslav59
    How about accumulating .825?
  23. moonslav59
    These are my BTV trades with the closest thumbs up vs thumbs downs for both sides: Rafaela, Harrison & DHam for Donovan and Pages Yoshida, Hicks, Campbell, Crawford & Witherspoon for Donovan, Pages & Arenado. (LOL) Sox: Joe Ryan/ Twins: Painter & Mullins/ PHI: Duran & Harrison Only pluses on both sides: Duran & Hicks for Paredes, Sousa & Matthews Duran, Narvaez & Crawford for Wm Contreras, Peralta, Koenig & Gasser Rafaela & Romy for Lodolo and McLain & Duran & DHam for Lodolo & McLain
  24. moonslav59
    I think you are right. Waiting it out also allows Casas to work his way up from rehabbing at AAA. If Masa does well, maybe we trade Casas or Campbell. If either is doing well, their trade value would be much higher than an $18M DH guy, even if he's hitting .825. I'm pretty sure we have at least one more significant move to add to the 26, so until we see what that is, we may be talking about things that will be out of the question, soon. (Not that this ever stopped us... LOL)
  25. moonslav59
    So, Eaton>Sogard>DHam? What hurts DHam, besides his long slumps, is his plus D at just 2B. Sogard looked promising in 2025. I think Eaton looked okay, for a utilityman, but I'm not really impressed with any of these guys. Since Campbell is a man who can play no position well, and he needs to be playing everyday, he's not really in the "bench mis," IMO. Romy may end up starting more than riding the bench, despite being more of a short-side platoon guy. Wong is assured one of the 4 bench slots.
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