moonslav59

Fangraphs fWAR Projections: BAL: C: 4.5 (Rutschman 3.4) 1B: 2.9 (Alosno 2.6) 2B: 3.3 (Holiday 2.6) SS: 6.1 (Gunnar 6.0) 3B: 3.4 (Westburg 2.9) That's a nice first 5! LF: 2.6 (TWard 2.4) CF: 2.5 (Cowser 2.0) RF: 2.2 (Beavers 1.4) DH: 1.5 (Basallo 0.4/O'Neill 0.3) SP 11.1 (Rogers 2.4, Bradish 3.1, Baz 2.0, Kremer 1.3, Wells 0.9, Povich 0.8) RP: 2.5 (Helsley 1.0, Kittredge 0.6, Akin & Enns 0.3, Selby & Cano 0.2) They got us beat at Catcher and Infield, but we blow their OF away, their DH, too, but most importantly or pitching wins 22 to 13.6!

Look at the holes in the 26 man rosters of BAL and TBR. They have way more than the 2 the Sox have. (fangraphs does have BAL almost tied w BOS, so maybe I'm wrong.) TOR might have just 1 major hole. The Yanks have a few, but they will make some signings, at some point. You can count on that more than on JH allowing Brez to spend. Anything can happen, and the ALE looks tough again.

Would HOU do this for Rafaela, instead of KC? (I might wants a HOU, LH'd RP'er added, if so.)

I can't throw stones at Utes. I chose Texas, of all places!

He bought the property! He's not buying the Sox FO sham, though.

Isn't the Salt Lake like an ocean?

I just joined BTV, and had some fun, today. Some Sox players I feel they over-rated: 22 Crawford 18 Casas 9 Cespedes (the most over) 3 Bleis 2.4 Castro, 2.3 Zanetello I think KC is worth more than 19, Slaten more than 11 and Valera more than 6. Some of my trade suggestions, some made in haste (all have the other team getting more BTV value) Crawford & Hicks for Nate Cespedes, Harrison, Sandlin & Hicks for Nate Rafaela & DHam for Nate, Jung and Latz Cespedes, Sandlin & Wong for Keller & Bart (PIT says HELL NO!) Crawford, Cespedes & Wong for Bubic and Blake Mitchell Duran, Casas & DHam for K Marte Rafaela, Crawford & Romy for KMarte Rafaela, Harrison & DHam for Donovan & Pages Rafaela & Romy for Lodolo & McLain Duran & Hamilton for Lodolo & McLain Rafaela, Hicks & $10M for Paredes, Matthews & Sousa Duran & Hicks for Paredes, Matthews and Sousa Rafaela, Crawford, Soto & Cespedes for Ragans _________________ 3 Ways: BOS: Paredes & Alcantara HOU: K Campbell MIA: B Mathews _______________ BOS: Joe Ryan MIN: Painter & Mullins PHI: Duran & Harrison ______________ This one was for fun..... BOS: Skenes & Keller PHI: Duran, Crawford, Hicks & Cespedes PIT: Mayer, Painter, Tolle & Castro and Duran, Crawford & Narvaez for Wm Contreras, Peralta, Koenig & Gasser

It wasn't a 4+ year deal, though, so why now?

Yes, 29% in AAA, but a .795 OPS and about 20 Hrs per 650 for the 23 year old. I guess his defense might be what matters.

I'm not 90% sure we wont go 4 or more years, and if the guy is 28 or 29, I think we would. (30- maybe.) We might go 4 for Bregman. Maybe 3 with a hefty buyout on 4th year option. I think they'd rather go 2 for Suarez.

2 years, though. He's older now, too. I would not have paid $13M for him. $11M x 2 for Weaver looks better. $19M/2 for Finnegan, too. $8M/1 for Gregory Soto LHP was right up their alley.

Third team for Gore works, too, but I'm not sure I count him as a #2, despite his higher BTV than Lodolo. I agree on HOU not trading Brown and CIN not trading Greene, but HOU is acting stingy and may be rebuilding.

What's different now compared to last year's one year offer? Bregman is a year older. He showed that maybe his bat decline was not for real, but now his health is more of a concern. His FA value may be about the same as last winter. Is our wide open window, now, the game changer? I thought the window opened wide, last winter, especially if the $21M spent on Buehler had worked out well, and or Houck stayed healthy. His clubhouse value is enormous, and I think the Sox love that, but I don't see 4 years offered, and I think it takes 5. BTW, the Sox offer last winter was not better than DET's. We got outbid on a long term deal. We will again, this winter. IMO.

Rafaela (36 on BTV) & Hicks (-18) plus $10M cash for Paredes 3B/1B/2B (12) Brice Matthews (RHB 2B, 13) Sousa (LH RP, 5)

$13M is a lot for a guy who has seen his K rate do this... 14.3 in '22 13.5 in '23 8.7 in '24 8.8 in '25 K's were what he was known for (and velocity.) He did still have a .612 OPSA in '25 (.659 v L) .601 in '24 (.689 v L)

I think the Cubs or Jays get Bregman. The Jays may prefer Breggie to the longer term Bichette deal. The Cubs may make a stronger bid for Tucker over Bregman. There may be a team like the NYM or PHI, or even DET that makes a final big offer to Bregman. I do not think JH will approve 4-5 years, when he wouldn't last winter. Breggie is gone, IMO. Bichette is at an age where the Sox are known to sign long term deals (extensions,) but I do not think he has the power we need. I think we trade for Donovan or Vientos. I'd prefer KMarte or Paredes.

It does feel like it would be a miracle to see a bold addition.

It's about what other Gms offer and not so much BorA$$.

Fairbanks to Marlins for #13M/1.

I'd take KMarte at 2B and Mayer/Romy at 3B, too!

Duran could probably get us Lodolo. Duran to a third team, plus Crawford might get us Joe Ryan. Duran plus Tolle or Early might get us Greene or Hunter Brown. How about this for a Christmas blockbuster? Duran, Tolle, Phillips and Mullins for Hunter Brown (3 arbs, but try to extend) and Paredes (2 arbs but try to extend)?

While KMarte had 5-6 years to Duran's 3 of control, the age factor negates than aspect of such a trade. The recency factor favors Marte. The defense, too. I'd offer Duran and maybe Crawford or Harrison. I'd prefer to give them Sandlin or Mullins, but I'm not sure they do it. One big factor: I think with all the deferrals, KMarte's deal is less than $15M AAV. Subtract $7.8 for Duran and $2.7 for Crawford, and the tax hit would only be about $4-5M a year! We might still be under tax line 1! JH might be okay with a 5-6 year deal in this context.

This is why I worried more about losing out on Polanco and H-S Kim than Alonso. I'm not sure how many more meaningful 1-2 year deals are out there. Of course, I hated missing out on Alonso more, but knowing about the no 5 year plus priority, explains why we wont get anyone for that long, unless they are wowed by the talent or lower price. This is why I actually think KMarte should be, but probably is not, still on our radar. His AAV is not high. Hell, he's owed $89M/5, which is less than we paid Pablito! $45M is deferred, so the AAV is reportedly under $15M a year! I'd pay him $89M/4, so why should the 5th year scare us away? He's likely worth $90M/3 and would get that as a FA, right now. On long deals like his, we need to look at all the context. If his AAV is under $15M, including Duran or Rafaela in the deal would knock the AAV cost to below $8 or 9M a year! I know I am 99% sure to be wrong, but I'd trade Duran or Rafaela, Crawford & Phillips for K Marte, then sign Bassitt for 1 year. We'd still have 9 decent to great SP'ers, a big switch-hitting power bat, our 2B issue finally solved after a decade of clown circus play there. We'd still have 3 solid OF'ers with a KC-Masa platoon in LF as our OF depth. We'd have Masa/Casas and Romy at DH. Contreras/Romy at 1B. KMarte/Romy at 2B. Story/Mayer at SS. Mayer/Romy/Eaton at 3B, and Narvaez/Wong as our catchers. Our pen could be boosted by adding Harrison or one of our minor league SP'ers to the MLB pen (maybe Sandlin or Drohan.) To me, this would be a better team than April 2025 or August 2025's team (before Anthony got hurt.)

We are not the only ALE team with major concerns and issues. The Sox lost nearly 1200 PAs with a combined OPS of about .850 from Bregman, Devers, Refsnyder & N Lowe, and there is talk of trading Duran, too. The Sox lost Gio, Wilson, some other pitchers by trade, but also Buehler and others who did not do so well. The Sox added Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras & Oviedo plus Watson and a few prospects- some of whom might pitch in MLB, soon. Crawford, Sandoval, Abreu, Slaten, Anthony and others (Casas & Masa) are expected to return from injuries. The Sox sorely need a big RHB, preferably a 2B/3Bman. They may be able to get by without a #2 SP'er, as their rotation is ranked #2 by one major site. Toronto has made some splashes with the Cease, Ponce and Tyler Rogers signings. These should more than offset the loss of Bassitt, Scherzer & S Dominguez. The Jays also lose Ty France & Kiner-Falefa. The big loss will be Bo Bichette, but as with many teams, there is talk of more big additions. With no more additions, I do not see them as better, right now. The Yankees 2026 season seems to hinge on the return of Cole from a serious injury. Maybe some Sox fans expect him to be great, but injured Sox players have zero expectations. It appears Judge won't need elbow surgery, but Rodon & Volpe are expected to start the season on the IL. They are also losing some key players to free agency: Bellinger, Grisham, Goldy, De Williams, Luke Weaver & Slater. They have made zero new FA additions. With no more additions, I do not see them as better, right now. BAL has added Alonso & Helsley as FAs. They traded for Baz, but have made a questionable trade (GRod to T Ward) and started out so far behind other ALE teams, the have a ways to go. They lost Sugano, Eflin. Mateo & G Sanchez to free agency. The Rays have not improved. They are rebuilding. Of course the Jays and Yanks seem more likely to make a big splash FA signing than the Sox, but the Sox might have one blockbuster trade to make and or a possible significant FA signing, which would be their first of the winter. The Sox still have their 3 top prospects (Yolle, Early & Arias) and traded their #4 Perales for their #6 Bennett, recently. They also have kept their... 5. Witherspoon 7. Valera 9. Gonzales 11. Soto, 12 Sandlin, 13 Phillips, 14 Eyanson, 15 Godbout, 16 Romero, 17-19 Uberstine, Drohan & Holobetz, as well and most from 21 on down. The Sox have 4 FT OF'er with K Campbell & Masa in reserve. The Sox have cut down on their SP'er depth by trading away some 5/6 type starters (Dobbins, Peralez, Fitts and the far away Fajardo & Travieso,) but they added Gray, Oviedo and Bennett by trade, too. I'm not sure we are currently deep enough to trade a good SP'er away, but for the right piece, we could and maybe should. Here is what I think is our current rotation rankings: 1. Crochet 3. Gray & Bello 4/5. Oviedo, Sandoval, Crawford 5/6. Harrison, Early, Tolle (all with upside) That's 9. Last year, we started with 11 and needed to trade for DMay and add Tolle & Early to the 40, prematurely. We also used a few "openers" and De Leon. More depth but not really much trade value... AAA: Drohan, Uberstine, Sandlin, Gamboa, Mullins & AA Bennett, Holobetz & E Rivera I think we slightly improved our top 5 SP'ers. I wanted more, but so it is. Maybe we add more. I think we greatly improved our 1B situation and by adding Casas to the DH mix, helped that slot out, too. Of course, we started 2025 with Devers at DH and a hopeful Casas at 1B, so how much we gained from those expectations at 1B/DH in March, 2026 is not so good. Still Contreras beats out Toro & N Lowe. We need to replace and maybe upgrade Bregman's slot. Bregman or Bichette would keep that slot near equal. K Marte would boost it. Paredes would be nice, Donovan or Suarez might be okay, and Vientos a step down, IMO. I'm sure there are other options out there. Let's see what Brez has up his sleeve.

Merry Christmas!