moonslav59

Probably not, but he probably will stop getting as many RBIs as hits as well.

Keeps hitting .224?

Sale is good enough to overcome the whole "4th time" aspect, but I had no issue bringiung in Kimbrel.

Ben started slow in the draft and then had the TBall pick, but overall he did well: 2012: Marrero, Johnson, Light, Callahan... 2013: TBall, Stanki, Denny... 2014: Chavis, Kopech (CSale), Travis, Ockimey... 2015: Beni, Rei, Matheny, Lakins, Taylor International signings (most traded away): 2012: Margot (Kimbrel) 2013: Basabe (Sale), Basabe (Ziegler), Guerra (Kimbrel), Rijo (A HIll), Almonte (Ziegler), V Acosta 2015: Devers, J Diaz, Y aybar 2016: Moncada (Sale), Espinoza (Pomeranz), R Castillo, R Raudes, C Acosta

Sad thing is no one paying $10M for Pablo. Just a bad signing by Cherington. If Pablo has a decent year, we might get someone to pay $7-9M a year for him. He'll just have 2 years left, which is a much lower risk. Look, we got the Phillies to pay Buch $13.5M/1! My guess is, we try to find a spot for Panda on our 25 man roster than minimizes his faults (defense and batting vs LHPs). With Moreland and Young's time up after this season, moving Panda to 1B/DH vs only RHPs would "get the most" out of a rotten situation. It's absurd to pay someone $19M a year to be a platoon DH, but if that's the best way to make it work, so be it. Hopefully, Devers and/or Hernandez can play plus ball at 3B by next year. We'll also have Travis in the mix at 1B. vs RHPs: 1B: Pablo (Travis) DH: HRam (Pablo) vs LHPs: 1B: Travis DH: HRam

That 2014 draft class has looked better and better as time has gone by. 26th pick Chavis has exploded this year. 33rd pick Kopech had issues early, but bounced back and helped us land Sale. 67th pick Travis battled injuries, but is now a highly ranked Sox prospect. 164th pick Ockimey is still a raw talent, but he has big upside. Ben caught some flack for this draft, but now...

In his 15 starts after July 2nd, Sale had 4 bad starts, including one with 8 ER in 5 IP. He also had these lines in the other 10 games... ND 8 IP 0 ER 1H 3BB Win 8IP 0ER 3H 3BB Win 9IP 2ER 7H 1BB ND 8IP 2ER 6H 0BB Loss 8IP 2 ER 6H 1BB Loss 8IP 2 ER 8H 1BB ND 8IP 2 ER 8H 4BB Loss 9IP 3 ER 5H 0BB Loss 6 IP 2 ER 6H 3BB Win 7IP 3ER 8H 0BB He was 4th in MLB in SP'er 2nd half WAR. 5th xFIP at 3.56 (among starters with 90+ IP in the second half) 7th in WHIP at 1.03 11th in ERA- at 77 (among starters with 90+ IP)

No, I was talking Pablo's next two years, but I suppose if Moreland slumps badly or gets hurt, or HanRam gets hurt, moving Pablo sooner than I meant might be an option. This is all based on the assumption that Pablo's bat is a plus if and when all this comes down. Lot's of "ifs" here. Finding a way to get something plus out of Pablo in 2018 and 2019 could help us avoid having to fill Moreland's shoes after 2017 and HRam's shoes after 2018. 2018: 3B: Devers/Hernandez (Rutledge/Holt/Pablo) 1B: Pablo/Travis/HRam DH: HRam (Pablo) 2019: 3B: Devers/Hernandez (Chavis/Dalbec) 1B: Travis/Dalbec (Pablo) DH: Pablo/Dalbec If can save money by not needing to replace Moreland, Young and HanRam with a FA, we might be able to keep one more of our studs. Now, if some team wants to pay half of Pablo's contract to take him off our hands, I'm listening.

Like my original line-up suggestion? 1) Beni 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) HRam 5) Pedey 6) JBJ v R/ Young vs L 7) Moreland v R/ JBJ v L 8) Sandy v R/ Rutledge v L 9) Leon & Vaz

The team is 3-1 in his 4 starts. That's all that counts.

This sucks!

I think an improvement on OPS would be... (OBP x 3) + (SLG x 2) 5 This way, OBP counts as 60% of the number and SLG 40%.

Beni graduates from prospect status today. Read about our other OF prospects.... http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/04/system-restart-17-outfield.html

OPS+ does a little bit.

And that's a good thing. Remember all the clowns who used Fldg% and only Fldg% to rate a player's defense? BTW, I don't think RF is used. They are more advanced than that. UZR/150 is better than RF/9 by a long shot. It took a while for fldg% guys to even listen to the RF/9 argument.

Since WAR is a product of skill plus time, a player who is better but plays less might have a lower WAR, but I think we all agree, being on the field playing is a plus. Personally, I've never used WAR as a debate ender, and I don't see many others doing it. I'll say again, I think the onus is on the poster to try sand show why a lesser WAR player is better than another. I've attempted this myself a few times by using these arguments: 1) Player B was hurt, but he is clearly better "when healthy". (Maybe the player has no history of always being hurt.) 2) I think SS defense is under-scored by WAR, but I can't prove my theory is better than WAR's methodology for determining how SS defense compares in value to other positions. 3) Catcher "defense" cannot quantify how a catcher gets the best (or worst) out of the pitchers he catches. There's a big hole here, but that hole exists in traditional measurements as well. There's probably more that I can't think of. In general, I like the idea of trying to put one number to measure the totality of a player's value. WAR uses statistical data from many many years to determine the co-relation between a stat and a run scored or saved from being scored. They use that data to determine which stats are more important and weigh these factors into their formula. I don't have to understand every permutation to trust that they are pretty close to what really counts towards a player's value. The runs are converted to wins above replacement player value and there's the number. I kind of like it, but I realize it is not perfect, but because it factors in so many valuable things a player can do or not do, it's better than any other single stat. That's all it is to me. It doesn't mean I totally agree with every single number, but it always seems to be very close to what I think, so I think they've done a good job at trying to factor everything into one number.

I was going to say the same thing. I do think Beni seems to lack the instincts on defense and base running, but that can be improved upon. He reminds me of Ellsbury who started out his defensive career by making some mistakes, some of which he could overcome by having plus speed.

Yes, and what other single stat or metric does a better job of comparing values of differing players. It's obvious that WAR is much better than any single old school stat.

There's another choice at minimizing his defensive short-comings: move him to 1B or DH.

Not only is JBJ a much better defender than Bogey, he has hit better since 2015: .862 Betts .833 JBJ .802 Pedey .797 Ramirez .788 Bogey I hear talk of consistency, and no doubt JBJ has been streaky, but have a look at the final numbers: JBJ .531 2014 .832 2015 .835 2016 .782 2017 (small sample) Bogey .660 2014 .776 2015 .802 2016 .747 2017 (small sample) I guess if you count 2014 as being reflective of who JBJ or Bogey are today, you can say both are about equally consistent in their final numbers, but I think more weight should be placed on these young players' most recent 2-3 years.

Word is he misunderstood the workout routine the Sox put him on and over extended himself.

It's not the "more variables" put into the process, it's the more components that make it better than using any other single stat or most other metrics. It's an attempt to quantify the value of offense, defense, base-running and positional differences into one number that gives comparative value between players. It's easier than saying player A is better than player B, because he has a higher OBP and more HRs, but is worse on defense, running and slugging. Talk about confusing. The "old way" of comparing players has always been subjective. WAR tries to objectify the subjective. It's not perfect. I disagree with some of their positional values, but at least they have data and research to support why they value each component a certain way compared to others. The end result is that when I look at the top 10 or 20 lists by WAR, they look pretty damn close to what I think the order should be. It's closer than ordering players by OPS, wRC+, UZR150, HRs, BA, etc... One thing WAR does not do is to credit a great player who has missed time due to injury or lack of playing time. Player A may be "better than" player B, but was out hurt for a while. WAR just captures the value of what you have given in a certain time period. To me, WAR is just a tool to try and reduce the whole of a player's skill level to one number. It's pretty darn accurate, but it's not the be-all-end-all and can be improved upon. There's still room for argument and discussion using old school stats and observations, but WAR gives a very nice guideline or framework for any discussion. To me, the onus is on the person claiming player A is better than player B despite WAR showing otherwise.

Although Pedey is not a HR hitter, I'd like to see him moved down to 5th. This is the line-up I'd like to see someday soon: 1) Beni 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) HRam 5) Pedey 6) JBJ v R/Young v L 7) Moreland v R/JBJ v L 8) Pablo v R/ Rutledge v L 9) Leon/Vaz

Let's say Panda ends up at .275 17 80 (.340 OBP/.460 SLG/.800 OPS). We might be able to trade him by paying half his salary, or we could include a prospect to lessen the financial cost. More likely, Panda moves to 1B or DH vs RHPs and sits vs LHPs for the remainder of his contract here. Devers and Travis try to squeeze him out of a job, and HanRam DHs and plays some 1B until his contract runs out (one year before Panda's).

MLBTR... Red Sox righty Tyler Thornburg has yet to progress to the point that he’s able to take the mound, manager John Farrell said today (via Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com, on Twitter). It’s not clear whether he’s making much progress, but it seems he is still long tossing in an effort to rebuild lost shoulder strength. At present, it seems as if there’s no clear timeline for the reliever to appear in the majors for the first time with his new team. Meanwhile, the Red Sox seem to be slowing the rehab pace of lefty David Price, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports. It’s not believed to be related to any setbacks, but plans of letting Price face live hitters appear to be on hold for at least another week, per the report.