moonslav59

Watching Sandy Leon contribute offensively reinforces my inclination to field a respectable hitting line up 1-9 without any black holes.

 

I'm reluctant to give up on Swihart catching at such a young age.

I really like Swihart, but I see Vaz as our long term answer at catcher with Leon banging on the door. Since catchers are in super high demand these days, especially ones that project well on offense, I still believe Swihart has higher value with a team in great need of a catcher upgrade. Some of the best teams in MLB today have very weak offense from the catching position.

I'm not trying to dump Swihart, and I'm not for just trading him for the best offer out there, but I'd certainly explore the market this winter. I also think Devers might be offered with Swihart to get someone very special. Let's assume we trade Holt, Swihart and Devers for a solid SP'er. We'd have plenty of money to sign Encarnacion and a couple sweet RP'ers.

Here's a look at what our 25 man roster might look like:

SP1 Price

SP2 Porcello

SP3 (Special Pitcher acquired in the trade mentioned above)

SP4 Wright

SP5 Pomeranz

SP6 ERod

Closer) Kimbrel

RP2) Ziegler

RP3) C Smith

RP4) FA

RP5) FA

RP6) Barnes

RP7) Hembree/Kelly/Layne/Ross/Elias/Light and others

C) Vazquez

C) Leon (Hanigan?)

1B) Ramirez

DH) Encarnacion

2B) Pedroia

3B) Shaw

IF) Moncada

IF) Hernandez/Pablo/Rutledge/Marrero/Travis

SS) Bogaerts

LF) Benintendi (Moncada?)

LF) Young

CF) JBJ

RF) Betts

This could be the line-up:

1) Betts

2) Bogey

3) Encarnacion

4) Bradley

5) Pedey

6) Ramirez/Pablo

7) Moncada/Shaw

8) Benintendi/Young

9) Vazquez/Leon

There are a lot of ifs here.

It would be great to acquire Encarnacion if it can be done without a long term contract at big bucks.

Edwin turns 34 in January. He's going to want to go for broke an max out years and money. The beast is on pace for his 5th straight .890+ OPS season. I can't blame him.

I still think we should spend nearly all our available resources on upgrading the staff, but I have to admit, the idea of signing EE is growing on me.

I doubt Pablo will ever make it back or get into playing shape. The Sox should just eat the contract and move on without him.

I wouldn't bet on Pablo either, but maybe his pride will kick in, he'll surprise us. He'll be 30 in less than a month, so there's still time.

Shaw may well improve as he is still fairly new to the majors. He can play first or third for us.

I think there's an equal chance he never has a season over .800 or becomes a platoon corner IF'er.

Hanley is not my idea of a positive asset long term although we owe him lots of money. He is doing fine at first base, but he looked pathetic at the plate today. He is also poor on the base path. I know he has shown improvement before the all star break but then today he was back to looking bad.

I think we should trade HanRam after the season, before he has another 2015 season. He's too risky and expensive. If he has a decent end to this season, his trading stock may be the highest we'll ever see.

Sam Travis may come back strongly from his injury or he could just be considered trade material.

Until we know more about Shaw and what position Moncada ends up playing, we may want to hold onto Sam Travis.

Brentz looked lost at the plate today also.

I don't see him as a realistic FT option anywhere.

We could use help now in the outfield with Benentendi being the closest fit for that position and may prove to be a major asset going into next season. Moncada could possibly play 3rd, he has the tools. We don't really need that now, so a September call up makes sense. Give him reps there now to prepare him. We also have Swihart and Young available for the late season.

Assuming nobody new gets hurt, we'll be a super deep team by year's end.

I think Swihart will be traded this winter, especially if Leon hits above .700 the rest of the way.

Next year if looks like we will have a very talented team with the loss of Ortiz being the main downer. We will have a lot of trade material also including catching talent as well. Stay young and talented. Don't set up like the Yankees with a lot of older players who are on large long term contracts and have gone way beyond their prime.

With Uehara and Taz also coming off the books, we'll have some holes to fill, but I would be okay with not trying to sign a big bat, and concentrate all our resources on pitching.

It will be interesting to see who is moved as Pomeranz, Tazawa and Kelly returns....

My guess is...

Cuevas is sent down to make room for Pomeranz.

Buchholz gets traded for a single-A long shot (my guess is Kelly is ready before Taz)

When Taz is ready we have a tough decision. Kimbrel too!

Here's how I rank our staff:

SP1 Price

SP2 Porcello

SP3 Wright

SP4 Pomeranz

SP5 ERod

RP1 Kimbrel

RP2 Uehara

RP3 Ziegler

RP4 Barnes

RP5 Hembree

RP6 Tazawa

RP7 Kelly

RP8 Ross

RP9 Layne (No options remaining)

RP10 Buchholz

(Others: Cuevas, Elias, Light, Martin, N Ramirez, Mendez, Owens, Couch)

I don't see us DFA'ing Layne, so maybe we trade Buch and/or Ross. Probably someone else will go to the DL to solve that issue.

I have no clue what you folks are doing here but I am jumping in anyway. i have been a great supporter of E-Rods since he was acquired. he has always projected as a #2 with potential to be better. He is a kid and if he is healthy and ready, he allows our GM to strengthen our team in other areas. i don't think that he is done by any means but the need for another starter at this time might not be that important. It is early but if this kid is healthy he sure as hell is better than anybody's 5. he could have great career ahead of him.

I totally agree, but I felt like I had to put someone below 3-.

v h

If E Rod comes through...do you still see Sox making a big trade?

I think we may trade for a RPer if Kimbrel seems iffy. I think we will look for another SPer this winter.

DD literally came out and said that the only options were just Hill or Pomeranz. No one else was biting on anything close to an acceptable price. Beane was asking for Espinosa for Hill.. If you understand nothing else, understand that. I can't blame DD for paying an "unreasonable" price when there was literally no way on God's green earth we were going to get a meaningful upgrade for a price I considered reasonable.

 

DD had to choose who to proect and he chose to protect Benintendi and Moncada and I agree that losing those two would hurt worse, and in ways that hurt us sooner. You literally cannot protect everyone. you have to make some valuable pieces available to get value back.

 

Frankly given the drastically overinflated market, you can make an argument that the Padres cut us a break. I mean... did you hear what the Braves wanted for Teharan? Anderson Espinosa is an afterthought compared to the sheer rack and ruin that trade would have inflicted on our farm.

My main issue on DD was not making another move for a quality SPer last winter. That was a better choice than having to choose between Jill and Jed for espi

Assuming 150 starting pitching slots broken into groups of 30's, top 30 being #1 starters, next 30 being #2 starters, etc, where do you rank Sox starters going forward?

 

1 Price ( )

2 Porcello (-)

3 Pomeranz, (-) Wright ( )

4

5 E Rod (-)

 

We can further separate each group by + (top 1/3) neutral (next 1/3) and - (bottom 1/3).

 

It would be interesting to see 1-75 ranking for AL starters. I have no idea on what basis though. Thoughts?

over the next 1.4 yrs...

I see Price as 1+

Portillo 2

Wright 3+

Pomeranz 3

ERod 4+

By Moon

Well, before the Espi trade I thought it might take Espi, Beni and Swi to get us a much better pitcher than Pomernaz, but I clearly see Beni as our future LF'er. There's another piece to the future roster puzzle of the Sox: assuming Moncada is better offensively than Beni, what if two or three of these things happen by opening day next year:

1) We sign Encarnacion to be our DH/1Bman.

2) Pablo comes back in shape next year and wins back the 3B position.

3) Shaw learns to hit LHPs and continues at a near .800 OPS.

4) HanRam ends up near .850 at season end and does well in the playoffs.

5) Sam Travis rakes in ST'ing.

The log-jam at 3B/1B/DH could make it feasible to want Moncada in LF over Beni

Moon, if 1-5 all happens, I'd be drunk for weeks.

Me too, but if 2 or 3 of the 5 happen, Moncada may end up competing for the LF position with Beni.

I could see us bringing Hill back and having a Shaw/Hill platoon at 3B, HanRam at 1B and Pablo at DH with others getting a turn here and there at DH as well.

That could leave LF as the wild card slot.

Like I said, I still think 3B is the going to be Moncada's landing spot, but I do see a chance in LF as well (maybe later rather than sooner).

Who knows why he was in the minors? Maybe its because he had options...maybe it was for rehab starts after his injuries. It obviously wasn't because of his performance. His numbers for the past 2 1/2 years are very good. As for Espinosa, I would have loved to keep him. I personally offered SD the combination of Buchholz, Craig, Castillo, Owens, and O'Sullivan, but they wouldn't listen. They weren't willing to hand over an all star for a bag of golf balls. Espinosa may or may not become a legit ML pitcher; he has promise, which is why the Padres wanted him. Whatever your opinion of this trade is, you have to give DD credit for not sitting on his hands. He actually went out and did something to hopefully improve the team. I am going to assume he got the best deal he could, though I will never know. Doing nothing was not an option if this team was to stand a good chance to make the playoffs. Not with our SPing.

Here is what Bannister said about his turnaround as a SP:

 

""He went from being a two-pitch pitcher, which limits your viability as a starter," Bannister said before the Red Sox beat the Yankees on Friday night. "He added a third pitch, which got him over the hump and it's a quality third pitch."

 

That pitch is a cutter, and Bannister believes it's not only the key to Pomeranz's emergence, but the key to sustaining it, especially when paired with a "top-20" curveball, as well as an effective fastball.

 

"He's always had the ability to spin the ball, it's always been one of the better curveballs in the league from a lefty, he's a big body, he knows how to pitch," Bannister said. "He needed something that could balance out his fastball, especially when you get behind in the count, because you can't always just throw a curveball and he wasn't a changeup guy. Just having that ability to mix in that cutter like he has and have it be a power pitch, it's really just taken him to another level.""

I'm hoping for the best. I don't dislike Pomeranz. Just because I listed my concerns, especially regarding his sample size, does not mean I think he will fail. I actually think he'll do fine. He should be our number 3 or 4 for the next 2.4 years at a low financial cost. That will aloow us to spend in other high need areas over the next 2 winters.

I realize any acquisition is a gamble or risk, and I realize Espi was also a gamble and risk. I'm not terribly upset by the deal, but I don't like it. To me, it's actually more about Espi than Pomeranz, but I know my posts have been more about Pomeranz concerns.

Just a random comment:

 

ERA- is a better stat to use than ERA+.

Agreed.

I am having a hard time understanding your insistence that he has been very good for only half a season. The fact of the matter is, he has been above average to excellent for two and a half years running: ERA +: 159/108/161. Even if you think he is only an average pitcher, something these statistics show otherwise, its an upgrade over who our #4-5 SPs are now. And this team was sorely in need of an upgrade in that department. What Espinoza becomes or doesn't become is unknown. He is an 18 year old who isn't even pitching well in A ball right now.

If he was doing as well as you say, why was he in the minors so much over the prior 3 years?

Buch has given us plenty of great half seasons over the last 6-7 years, but nobody is praising him, and he put up equal numbers in 17 starts last year.

I like Pomeranz, and I think he'll do well. I'm just pointing out that he has had many issues recently, and the sample size is small.

Plus, I disagree on Espi. Within the context of where he is and who he's facing, he's doing well- so well that his stock has risen this year.

Yeah not signing Hill had conseuqences, and if you want to know who's responsible for us eating a faceful of those consequences, you can thank the Bastard Batallion, especially Messrs. Buchholz, Kelly and Rodriguez.

DD made that call, not Buch, Kelly and ERod.

Not particularly, but then I don't expect DD to be Madame Cleo.

 

If the team had acquired Pomeranz in the offseason, it would have been at the expense of Steven Wright's spot in the rotation or, alternatively is signed as a swingman so just bear that in mind. With attitudes as they were on the first of April, Pomeranz replaces Wright or goes into the bullpen. Until we knew that Kelly and Buchholz were not about to live up to last year's illusion of progress, their spots in the rotation were pretty secure, and Wright was considered the last man in the rotation.

 

The fact of the matter is that the Padres are being rewarded for taking a risk that a big competitive market may not have taken, and proved that Pomeranz was worth paying a premium for, so a premium was paid. If he was on this team, it's nowhere near certain the same risk would have even been taken.

Getting Pomeranz would not mean we'd have had to have dumped Wright. There was plenty of room for both. Even O'Sullivan got a shot!

I don't think anyone would disagree with any of this.

Look, I get the position of those who like or love this trade. We almost certainly got better right away, and the 2.4 years should be a very big plus.

I just tend to take a longer look. I've been a Sox fan since 1970. I've lived the heartache. I used to proclaim that I's take 20 last place finishes for just one ring season. That's an "immediate gratification" position to hold, and I'm not trying to say the Pomeranz trade is just that. I'm super happy we didn't overpay for a 2 month rental.

I have been very excited by our farm system and the long term outlook of my team, however, if anyone who knows me well, knows that I am not against trading youth or prospects. I probably have suggested more trades or floated trade ideas as much or more than anyone else I know- most of which involving top prospects or packages involving one or several top prospects. I've suggest trading various combinations of Swihart, Devers, Margot, Guerra and Kopech more than I bitched about the Pablo/HanRam and CC signings combined, but always for more of a sure bet SP'er with 3+ years of team control.

I'm not distraught over this trade. I know you have to give to get, but I had very high hopes for Espi, and I didn't mind waiting to see it happen.

But haven't you also said:

 

1) You liked the deal for Kelly.

2) You liked the exercise of Buch's option.

1) I never have claimed to be an expert or better than Sox management. I point out when I'm wrong, and I try not to gloat when I'm right.

2) I liked getting Kelly, but pointed out that I would have preferred a "longer view" like the Miller for ERod deal.

3) I wanted the Buch option taken in order to trade him, so I think your #2 statement is a bit misleading.

4) I also said I thought we should have moved Kelly and/or Buch to the pen over the winter- possibly as a closer or a closer in waiting/training.

In a thin market, Pomeranz's value escalated enormously because of what appears to be a breakout season. This is not new or surprising.

Yes, it does happen, but doesn't that concern you a little bit?

That a 17 starts sample size of a pitcher who has been in MLB for 6 years while playing for a losing team in a division of huge ball parks has his stock rise so quickly and highly?

Pomeranz has had a couple injuries and spent significant time in the minors over the past 3 years-- a much larger sample size.

I realize there is a long history of pitchers "breaking out" and that he has developed a third pitch. I can see a lot of value in Pomeranz. I'm much more confident in him as our 4th starter than all our 4-8th starters combined. The 2.4 years of control is very useful, especially when you consider the low financial cost going forward and so many big holes to fill this winter (Papi, Uehara & Taz).

I'm just pointing out that there is also a long history of mediocre pitchers having a 17 game stretch of greatness, or even a 250 IP stretch spread over 2-3 years, who end up fizzling out. I also realize Espi was a gamble/risk with more team control and much higher upside, but so far away from the bigs, that his value was hard to quantify.

I don't think Buch and Hanigan will be back next year either, but I do think Hanigan could be, if we trade Swihart.

I agree that I low-balled Bogey a bit, but I'm almost always a little shocked at how little some great players get in their first arb.

I have little doubt that Dombrowski seriously explored making a trade for a CCTOR starter this past offseason and found out that the ones he was interested in were only available for an exorbitant price-Betts or Bogey plus.

 

Two of the names that were mentioned the most as targets were Carrasco and Salazar. But guess what, Cleveland wasn't in sell mode at all.

There were guys like Pomerarnz around, oh wait, Pomeranz himself was around last winter.

Now, for some true 20/20 hindsight revisionism: these guys were available also:

Doug Fister $7M/1

Kenta Maeda $25M/8 (plus acquisition costs)

Bud Norris $2.5M/1

J Zimmerman $22M x 5

plus others I'm too lazy to research and find.

I say revisionism, because I never advocated getting any of these guys, but the fact is none cost an Espi.

You don't like the deal but qualifying it as a panic move is both silly and revisionist. Hindsight is 20/20.

Maybe "panic" was too strong a word, but clearly we were in deep doo doo at the back end of the rotation. Obviously DD thought the massive group of SP'ers accumulated over the years would produce enough quality to make our 3 to 5 slots decent enough that we wouldn't have to overpay with prospects to fill a void(s).

It's not "hindsight revision", when many of us were saying this all winter long.

Many of us felt the need was great before the start of the season. Call it luck, if you want, but it turned out we were right. The injury and struggles of Buc, Kelly and ERod over-shadowed the great season by Wright and the establishment of Porcello as a capable, solid #2 type starter.

I'm not revising anything. My position all along has been that I prefer quality to quantity in the back end of a rotation.

Maybe it wasn't a "panic" move, but to me it looks at least a little bit like one. Is this better: we messed up planning our full rotation, and now we overpaid to compensate for the short-comings.

Acquiring SP'ers is almost always easier and cheaper during the winter. There are more choices (FA & trades), and some can be acquired without losing a top prospect like Espinoza. In fact, Pomeranz could have been acquired last winter without losing Espi.

How do any of you guys "know" that Moncada is ready for MLB?

 

I suppose you have gone to many of his games and sat with all the scouts who told you so?

 

What a f***ing joke.

I said "I think..." not "He is...", so clearly it's just my opinion.

I've read from multiple sources that he is very close to ML ready. They could be wrong: I could be wrong.

Nope. Beni, Mon and Swihart.

What?

No love for our .846 LF'er?

Swihart will be traded or return to catching before he becomes our regular LF'er.

OK dude, three things.

1: Pomeranz' durability issues are overblown. People who are saying that this year's 100 innings are the most he's ever pitched in a season are ignoring minor league innings -- while they don't count in some areas, you HAVE to count those when discussing durability. In 2012, Pomeranz pitched 144 1/3 innings between the bigs and the littles. That means in theory that getting up to at least 170 innings isn't going to be a substantial risk for him even if he was 23 instead of 27.

Then count Buch's minor league starts and IP and it's a whole new picture. I've actually used this same argument with Buch on durability, but there's one big difference, Pomeranz has never been good enough or healthy enough to win AND hold down a rotation slot for a full ML season, and he's been in and out of the bigs for 6 seasons.

2016 is thef irst time he appears to be on his way to pitching a full season in the bigs. I didn't mean to focus on injuries, although he's had more than one. It's inconsistency coupled with some injuries. He's played on 3 awful teams, but could never win a rotation slot and keep it. That's a fact until 2016, and we're not done yet.

2: Comparing Pomeranz directly to Buchholz ignores the many areas in which the two are very different. Pomeranz' issues are not related to the same factors that plague buchholz. For one thing, Pomeranz doesn't have anywhere near buchholz' injury history. Pomeranz' lack of innings pitches is a matter of role, not a matter of injury or incapability as has been the problem with Buchholz. Yes he struggled in the funny physics of Colorado's high altitude stadium as a young player, but that was 4 years ago, and in the meantime he's put up decent numbers in a swing role, and took a step forward at age 27 -- not that unreasonable age for a pitcher of that high status as a prospect, to take that step forward.

I'm not trying to imply Pomeranz is not a very good pitcher- only that his future is highly questionable. I'm not one who easily thinks every pitcher repeats his previous 100 IP over the next 200 or 500 IP.

3: One thing I'm looking forward to out of Pomeranz is at least some chance of being healthy and effective in the playoffs.

I agree. He was a good pick-up for our immediate needs.

If buchholz had ever once given us at least that much, I'd be a lot less hard on him.

Pomeranz has never done it either.

Pomeranz has also done at least one thing that Clay Buchholz has never EVER done in the big leagues -- pitch effectively IN his role FOR a full season WITH a minimum of drama and catastrophe for THREE straight seasons.

You talking about his last 3 seasons?

Aren't you ignoring the fact that Pomeranz was not doing well enough to even stay in the majors for large parts of the last 3 years?

He spent 91 Innings in the minors in 2013.

He spent 46 innings in the minors in 2014 (just 23 IP less than in MLB).

He's been on the DL over those 3 years.

He pitched only 13 innings at the ML level after June 16th in 2014 (kinda like Buch's 2015).

I'd compare Buc's 2010-2012 or 2011-2013 three year stretches to Pomeranz's 2014-2016 and not see much difference. This year's not over though, so that could change.

Buch has done one thing Pomeranz has never done: He pitched the second half of a season very well and finished it off with a darn good playoff start (2009), and then started 28 games the next season with a league leading 187 ERA+ in 2010. that's a 45 start stretch missing just 3 starts and pitching very very well as a SP'er- not losing his rotation slot and having to be a long RP'er. (He actually started the his first 14 games of 2011 without any drama and was doing very well, so he actually went just about 2 years straight as a very good SP'er- missing only 3 starts (end of 2009 to middle of 2011).

(Note: He began the 2009 season with 17 starts at AAA with a 2.73 ERA, so he started 33 games that year when combined with MLB. He started 29 in 2010, 14 in 2011 and 30 in 2012 when combining minors and majors. That 4 year stretch was pretty drama free. He followed that up with an amazing start to the 2013 season, so one could argue 4.5 years straight.)

There's an old saying about "swing men" and long relievers that says that they are in that role, because they are not good enough to be an full time starter. I'm not sure that's always the case, but I find it concerning that he was never able to be a FT starter all year in his 6 seasons as a ML'er. If he was good enough, why didn't he?

So of our three potential LF candidates, the first one that's ready, plays left field and we figure it out from there.

I'm assuming you mean Young, Beni and Moncada.

I agree with you on Moncada being major league ready offensively but I'm deadly opposed to giving him a look at LF. What's the point? Benintendi is our future LF. Why cloud the issue? What if we do stick Moncada in LF, what the hell are we going to do with Benintendi?

Well, before the Espi trade I thought it might take Espi, Beni and Swi to get us a much better pitcher than Pomernaz, but I clearly see Beni as our future LF'er. There's another piece to the future roster puzzle of the Sox: assuming Moncada is better offensively than Beni, what if two or three of these things happen by opening day next year:

1) We sign Encarnacion to be our DH/1Bman.

2) Pablo comes back in shape next year and wins back the 3B position.

3) Shaw learns to hit LHPs and continues at a near .800 OPS.

4) HanRam ends up near .850 at season end and does well in the playoffs.

5) Sam Travis rakes in ST'ing.

The log-jam at 3B/1B/DH could make it feasible to want Moncada in LF over Beni.

I'm with you though: I think Moncada's landing spot should be 3B and sooner rather than later. If some of those above scenarios happen all together, we can trade one of those guys once we are certain Moncada is ready to play 3B.

I'm still not ruling out Moncada starting out seeing a lot of DH, until he shows he can play 3B and hit at the MLB level better than the guys on my list above.

Moncada should be a 3B. Yes his ceiling is much higher than Benintendi's but Benintendi's ceiling right now is higher than anyone but Moncada. They both need to be in Sox's long range plan. Things will get really interesting when Devers arrive.

I think Devers is farther away than most may think. I also think he and Swihart will be winter trade fodder.

Thing I appreciate most about DD is that he is very decisive. He sees a need and goes about fixing it. He is the ultimate FIXER. Ziegler looks to be a nice pick up. I think Koji will blow couple of saves and Ziegler will eventually take over that role as Kimbrel recovers.

I think Uehara is a much better closer, assuming he gets the HR bug out of his system. I never feel comfy with a sidewinder as closer, but maybe I'm biased.