moonslav59

Most people know my views on the Kimbrel trade, so I don't want to open up that old can of worms. I realize Margot was "expendable" due to the presence of Benintendi (and maybe even Moncada possibly moving to the OF), but some of us suggested expanding the package to involve Swihart and/or Devers to get a SP'er not a closer.

Giving up so many prospects for a closer is something I think should be avoided. The fact that Kimbrel was being paid almost as much as an open market free agent was just too much for me to support.

I'm not going to use Kimbrel's injury to make any points. It's an unforeseen event. Getting Kimbrel certainly improved our odds on winning this year, and despite his struggles this year, he has helped us a lot so far. I hope he comes back int ime for the playoffs, but I'm not holding my breath.

I know the perception is this wasn't the "good Basabe" but this guys stock was skyrocketing, impressing scouts all year, so for all we know there are teams out there who view him as the better prospect right now.

Yes, and the supposed "good Basaba" is doing poorly.

Moon, I count 26:cool:

Ooops. This is what MLBTR's had. I suppose we'll be sending Noe Ramirez down.

They say Kimbrel will miss 3-6 weeks. My guess is more than 6 and maybe the whole year. This sucks!

Here's the 25 man roster as of now:

(13 pitchers)

Betts

Pedroia

Bogaerts

Ortiz

Ramirez

Bradley

Holt

Shaw

Leon

Hanigan

A Hill

M Martinez

Brentz

Price

Wright

Porcello

O'Sullivan

Buchholz

Uehara

Ziegler

Tazawa

Hembree

Barnes

Ross

Layne

N Ramirez

DL: Kimbrel, C Smith, Workman

Swihart, Sandoval, Young, Rutledge

Many teams have multiple injuries; here's the list of our guys currently on the DL:

Kimbrel

C Smith

Sandoval

Swihart

Young

Rutledge

Workman

Holt just got back. HanRam looked very hurt last night.

Craig Kimbrel To Have Knee Surgery, Miss 3-6 Weeks

By Charlie Wilmoth | July 9, 2016 at 12:34pm CDT

Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel needs surgery to repair cartilage in his left knee and will be out three to six weeks, Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald tweets. Kimbrel had an MRI after experience knee soreness yesterday.

The 28-year-old Kimbrel, acquired at the start of the season in a big trade with the Padres, has a modest 3.55 ERA in his first year with Boston, but with his usual dominant peripherals — he has a ridiculous 13.6 K/9 to go with 4.1 BB/9 over 33 innings. He’s also recorded 17 saves this season.

DL for Kimbrel -- meniscus tear. I got the alert on my phone, but can't find it now to get a source.

That's gonna hurt us badly.

I don't think we'd automatically lose a year of control if we brought him up necessarily.

If it makes no difference on years of control, I'm more inclined to say yes, bring him up when the Sox management thinks he's ready.

This from MLBTR:

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says that he still has hope that Eduardo Rodriguez can contribute to the team this year, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. That assessment could well have an impact on the team’s approach to the trade deadline. “If people would be looking to say we’re going to be getting someone more talented than Eduardo Rodriguez, it’s not going to happen,” said Dombrowski. “They’re just not out there. They’re not out there and available. Sometimes you’ve got to fix some things internally. We’ll see what happens.”

Regardless of the Red Sox’ views on Rodriguez, the team figures to be in the hunt for at least one rotation arm. As Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reports, Boston has been in touch with the Padres, who could market Drew Pomeranz and/or Andrew Cashner (though the latter had a really rough outing tonight). Also, senior VP of baseball ops Frank Wren is said to have watched both Rich Hill of the Athletics and Julio Teheran of the Braves recently.

Rich Hill is my choice, assuming he can be gotten for anywhere near a reasonable price. He's a known commodity and he's pitched in the AL. I'm wary of pitchers who try to come from the NL to the AL.

,,, but he continues to keep getting hurt.

As tempting as it is to bring Benny up quickly, especially now with Holt down for an indeterminate time, I want that extra year of control to find out who he really is and minor league baseball doesn't always tell that. Sometimes it takes a few trips to Pawtucket and back, and even then sometimes we can't be sure.

 

We (and by "we" I mean some posters) tend to get tied up in the moment. They tend be impatient and want young players to be called up early. I can still remember when some posters wanted JBJ to be used as trade bait because "he can't hit".

 

I keep hearing that Benny is another of those once-in-a-lifetime players like Mookie so, to paraphrase UN, let's not f*** this up.

I tend to agree. However, if Sox management thinks he's ML ready, and we need his bat, I'm fine with losing a year of control to give us a better chance of making the playoffs AND having him on the roster for the playoffs.

I'd look for other options before calling him up and losing the year.

Hey Moon, maybe we should have gone after him during offseason instead of Kimbrel.

 

More I read about him, more I like. Who wants to face a submarine pitcher?

He hardly ever lets up HRs. We needed a RP'er, so I guess I like the deal. I think the "other" Basabe might come back to haunt us, but deals like this need to be done.

Here's more from MLBTR...

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says that he still has hope that Eduardo Rodriguez can contribute to the team this year, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. That assessment could well have an impact on the team’s approach to the trade deadline. “If people would be looking to say we’re going to be getting someone more talented than Eduardo Rodriguez, it’s not going to happen,” said Dombrowski. “They’re just not out there. They’re not out there and available. Sometimes you’ve got to fix some things internally. We’ll see what happens.”

Regardless of the Red Sox’ views on Rodriguez, the team figures to be in the hunt for at least one rotation arm. As Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reports, Boston has been in touch with the Padres, who could market Drew Pomeranz and/or Andrew Cashner (though the latter had a really rough outing tonight). Also, senior VP of baseball ops Frank Wren is said to have watched both Rich Hill of the Athletics and Julio Teheran of the Braves recently.

We're not necessarily looking for a top of the rotation pitcher. We need someone to solidify the bottom of the rotation. Hellickson is certainly capable of doing that. And given that he would be a 2 month rental, his cost should be reasonable.

I don't think I've ever been for rebuilding a rotation from the bottom, but I'm not sure we've ever had a contending team with such atrocious 4-5 starters. With the need for 2 SP'ers this summer, and the cost being so high, I think this is the first time I would suggest we get a (rental) guy like Hellickson along with a solid #2 type pitcher with several years of team control.

Also missing are the innings totals for Josh Beckett and Julio Teheran.

 

In the three seasons before his trade to Boston, Josh Beckett totaled 142, 156.2 and 178.2 innings:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beckejo02.shtml

 

In the last three seasons Julio Teheran has totaled 185.2, 221 and 200.2 innings:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml

 

With 112.2 innings so far this year, Teheran is on pace for 211.1 innings.

 

The ability to eat innings alone has value.

And, maybe all those IP'd at a young age is a precursor to future injury issues, especially with his poor mechanics.

You could add Beckett's 43 IP in the playoffs to his numbers and it would close that gap somewhat.

We could go on and on.

There really isnt much as far as TOP pitchers go. Jeremy Hellickson might be a nice addition with a better team behind him. Nice change up and ALE experience. Oh, and an ERA south of 4

Im wondering since hes a FA how much he would cost. Im guessing not too much. Good to see DD looking at all possibilites.

Helickson was showing decline with the Rays, so I'm not sure you can take his numbers vs the AL East at face value.

With HanRam recent resurgence, we now have 8 players with 140+ PAs and an .800+ OPS!

1.106 Ortiz

.931 JBJ

.867 Bogey

.866 Betts (My mid May projection of Betts finishing top 3 is looking good)

.846 Young

.810 Pedey

.801 Ramirez

.801 Shaw

(.780 Hill in 292 PAs w/ MIL)

.724 Holt

.583 Vaz

With Hill, it's 9 guys over .780, but we do need a catcher. (I'm not sure Leon will still be over .800 after 140 PAs.)

Looking at the teams just below us (the leader at 476 scored) in runs scored, let's see how "balanced" they are:

444 Cubs 4 over .800/5 over .780

440 COL 7 & 7

439 STL 4 & 5 (but 3 over .900)

433 TOR 4 & 6

430 BAL 5 & 6

426 TEX 3 & 4

422 SEA 6 & 6

413 CLE 4 & 4

OPS Splits

vs RHPs: 1 BOS, 2 BAL, 2 STL, 4 COL, 5 SEA, 6 TOR, 8 CLE, 9 CUBS, 15 TEX

vs LHPs: 4 Cubs, 5 BOS, 7 TEX, 11 COL, 14 TOR, 17 SEA, 20 BAL, 24 CLE, 26 STL

Away: 1 STL, 2 BOS, 3 Cubs, 5 BAL, 8 SEA, 13 TOR, 17 TEX, 24 CLE, 26 COL

As you can see, the Sox are the only team in the top 8 in all 3 categories listed. We are top 5 in each!

Folks, we need PITCHING!

Julio Teheran is one day older today than Josh Beckett was in November 2005 when the Red Sox traded top prospects Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez (and two others) to the Marlins for Beckett, Guillermo Mota and the then-underwater contract of Mike Lowell.

 

Beckett came with two years of team control while Teheran remains under team control for three-and-a-half years at a bargain rate with a team option for an additional year.

 

Here are the stat lines for Beckett at the time of the trade and for Teheran today (with all stats compiled while pitching for a National League East team):

 

JB 106 G, 103 GS, 609.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 118 ERA+, 10.7 bWAR, 13.7 fWAR

JT 120 G, 117 GS, 746.0 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 113 ERA+, 12.0 bWAR, 8.5 fWAR

 

In 2006 Baseball America ranked Ramirez and Sanchez No. 30 and No. 40 on its Top 100 prospect list after ranking Ramirez No. 10 the previous year.

 

Given the comps, especially the years of team control, the Braves would not be unreasonable in demanding a top Red Sox prospect or two in exchange for Teheran.

One thing missing here: Beckett's playoff performance in 2003:

42.2 IP

10 ER (2.11 ERA)

21 H

12 BB

47 Ks

Including beating the Yanks in the WS.

Beckett was a "money pitcher" and up until 2008 was on pace to become one of the best playoff SP'ers of all time.

Then, the cliff.

.

I can understand why DD did this: our bench really stinks and Hill is an improvement that is sorely needed. Still......our bench is not the major issue with this team, and we just gave up a SP with an ERA under 2.5 at AAA ball without even giving him a shot at it in Boston. I think this was a mistake. Yes, Wilkerson could have flopped, but given how bad our #4-5 SPs are he was worth a shot....unless DD has more up his sleeve in terms of addressing the pitching issue.

I'd have given him a shot, but I know DD and company know more about Wilkerson than I do, and I trust they felt they were selling "high", or that the need for Hill was much greater than what they felt the best Wilkerson could have given us. They may also have some cheap trade option on the table to get someone they view is better than Wilkerson.

I guess that begs the question what's the long term implication for Shaw? Is he always going to require platooning? I do like him as a player.

My opinion?

Shaw was my sleeper prospect pick many years ago, but then I gave up on him after his yo-yo'ing in AA and AAA that led to unimpressive numbers at those levels. In my opinion, his nice start to MLB is more "flash" than an incite into what will follow. He made some early adjustments that got my hopes up like everyone else, but I think I have held doubts longer than most posters. I still have serious doubts he will ever be a full time plus 3B or 1Bman. You have to be a damn good hitter to be a plus at those positions, although 3B isn't what it used to be offensively.

If I had to bet, I'd say he will be a decent platoon corner IF'er and capable bench guy/PH'er. If he played for a team that could afford to play him FT, he might end up with numbers like this: .240 to .255 20-25 HRs and 70+ RBIs. As a platoon, his numbers would look better.

If he was the GM at the time, he was responsible. The same way Theo was responsible for "feeding the monster."

 

Ben gets the credit for the 2012 trade to right the ship (sorry, A700), bringing in the vets that helped win in 2013 (yay) and then setting fire to the team afterwards (sorry, Kimmi).

So, since DD is not the current GM, all that is done now is all Mike Hazen's fault.

I never hear his name on this site or in any discussions, but clearly he's an example of how GMs are not always "in charge" of every or evena ny mov es..

"Because Travis Shaw is hitting .211 with a .620 OPS and 21 strikeouts in 75 plate appearances against lefties, Hill will likely slot in as the third baseman against southpaws.

 

Hill is hitting .283 with a .780 OPS and eight home runs overall. He has a .725 OPS against lefties.

 

“Travis, recently he’s had good at-bats, but his numbers against left-handed pitching have not been that good this year,” Dombrowski said. “How (manager John Farrell) decides to (handle the workload), that’s of course up to him.”"

 

Despite the contradicting chatter on this board, this is how DD views Shaw. And he counts more than any of us. Shaw has been anemic against left handed pitching. The game where Kimbrel blew up in the 9th comes to mind. We could have used Hill to pinch hit for Shaw with bases loaded (?) in late innings against a left hander.

I'm sure DD knows about Shaw's struggles vs LHPs throughout his minor league career. He's not fooled by a flash small sample size. It's Shaw's full portfolio, not just this season's struggles vs lefties, that brought about the search for a RH'd hiting 3Bman.

Hill has been pretty good vs LHPs and RHPs, which is nice to have. Over his career he's .762 vs LHPs and .741 vs RHPs.

There is THAT too. Wilkerson may not have had what it takes to make it in the majors, but his ERA at Pawtucket indicated that he was deserving of a chance before he got shipped away. I hope we don't read the box scores and see that Wilkerson is tossing goose eggs for some other team in the near future.

I totally agree, but I guess had he come up to the bigs for us and stunk, we wouldn't have Hill right now.

Shaw has struggled mightly against Lefty's this year and for several years his whole career. He got hot last year but the course of 7 professional seasons of baseball he has struggled against LHP all but 1/2 a season. I said it in the trade forum 2 months ago and I'll continue to say it now, the Sox would be better with a RHH infielder who can spell Shaw.

 

I would have been fine with that guy being Holt, if we put him back in the utility role. Holt is a LHB but he has some nice splits vs lhp/rhp.

I think he did better vs LHPs back in 2012 (A or AA), but I'm not sure.

Clearly he has had major issues vs lefties for his whole career. Expecting a player to have mastered something like that seemingly over night is probably more wishful thinking than logical projecting.

Victorino, Napoli and Dempster were brought in as short term replacements to keep the team competitive while the players of tomorrow developed. It worked splendidly. He gets all the credit in the world for creating the 2013 roster.

It worked "splendidly", as you said, and I pointed out that too, but we paid for 3 years of Vic and got one 3/4 season just in the nick of time. Dempster gave us a great present by retiring. I loved Napoli, and defended him through all his slumps, and the first signing was clearly a great one, but the second one-maybe not. Those were the "issues" I was referring to. There was also the "mixed bag" of signing Drew.

(Note: I give Theo a lot of credit for the 2013 roster as well.)

I think his biggest weak area was constructing a pitching staff.

Good point. The Lester fiasco was right up there with the worst of the worst

I, personally, thought the Dempster signing was poor, since it attempted to rebuild the rotation from the bottom or middle not the top. I was also against the Peavy trade for similar reasons, plus my love of spectacular SS defense Hanrahan, Bailey amd others did not work out, but injuries are hard to pin on the GM.

Ultimately, right or wrong, GMs are judged in hindsight. They are supposed to be able to know who s about to be injured or begin a steep decline. He did make a few good moves (Uehara was best) and choices (saying no to Salty and others), but he sure did build up our farm, and we will be grateful for that for many years to come.