moonslav59

The AGon trade didn't hurt us. It was the Crawford deal and the Beckett extension and lots of other stuff. AGon has been a solid producer on the field.

The AGon trade allowed us to dump CC and Beckett, so that should be part of the final equation.

Would anyone take Rizzo, if you had to take CC and Beckett with him? Maybe, but it's not a no-brainer.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/reactions-to-the-jake-peavy-trade-1.html

 

Two years ago, the Red Sox wouldn't have made this trade, writes Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. However, a strong desire to avoid the new Wildcard play-in game has changed the dynamic of the trade deadline. Passan goes on to write that no GM has had a better year than Ben Cherington, who has taken the Red Sox from one baseball's worst teams in 2012 to an AL East title race in 2013.

I called the Dodgers trade "perhaps the greatest trade the Sox have ever made, although I won't argue with the Pedro trade supporters or the VTek/Lowe trade.'

The Uehara trade was a steal as well.

I'm not arguing these deals outweighed the bad ones, but along with his farm building, I'm not going to look back at Ben's total body of work in a negative light.

Some of us also thought we should have planned for an unforeseen injury or significant struggle from a pitcher we projected doing fine this year (Price, Porcello, ERod).

Look how bad our rotation ended up being despite Wright having a break-out year- seemingly to some- out of nowhere!

Remember, Porcello was a question mark going into 2016 as well, even to a poster like me who had been defending him and the extension more than anyone.

Looking at the history of big FA SP'er signings, even Price could have been viewed as not being a slam-sunk to put up ace-like numbers in 2016, though I realize you can't get much closer to "sure bet" than Price.

The fact is, and this is not hindsight for me and many many other posters, we started the season with an ace (Price), a pretty good bet on two #3's (Porcello and ERod) and then 8 "wings and a prayer" gambles:

Buchholz

Kelly

Wright (some had him below everyone on the depth chart)

Owens

Johnson

Elias

Barnes

Cuevas/O'Sullivan

Look, I get the argument that 2 of these guys rated to do well enough to contribute enough wins to our 4-5 slots. Nobody forsaw a 7.00+ ERA from these guys combined (as starters), but I've always hated the quantity over quality mentality on structuring a rotation. I'm not trying to claim I knew more than Sox management, because I know I don't. I realize my position on quality over quantity seems to contradict my point about needing depth to cover something like the injury and struggles of ERod-someone we viewed as a solid #3 going into 2016, but depth of mediocrity (or worse) and high risk guys like Buch and Kelly never seem to work out.

You are right, we went into 2016 with 2 question mark rotation slots and ended up with 3 due to ERod's struggles. We were somewhat lucky that Wright more than made up for ERod, and maybe one could argue we were unlucky that nobody out of Buch, Kelly, Owens, Elias, Johnson and others stepped forward to fill even the 4 slot. I saw it then as poor planning, and I see it now as costing us a great long term prospect in Espinoza to fix the mistake made last winter.

I'm glad we have Pomeranz, but I'm not going to lie and say I approve of the time and way we went about getting him or someone like him.

We were more than "somewhat lucky" with what Wright has provided. We basically walked into a bank, grabbed a bunch of cash, fled and the bank just shrugged their shoulders.

I agree. Nobody saw this coming, but there were a few of us that have been supporting Wright's inclusion (or at least him being given an equal shot) in the rotation for several years.

Per MLB Traderumors

 

"Clubs that were pursuing Brad Ziegler were stunned by what the D-backs accepted in exchange for him, according to both Passan and Peter Gammons of the MLB Network (links to Twitter). Passan writes that the Guardians, Blue Jays and Cubs all expressed interest in Ziegler and were all met with asking prices of Top 100-type or even Top 50-type prospects in return. Arizona, however, acquired a pair of prospects that weren’t nearly that well regarded in return. One NL GM who spoke to Gammons wondered if Dave Dombrowski’s close relationship with Tony La Russa impacted the negotiations."

 

Good for DD

Team GMs often value players and prospects differently...maybe wildly differently at times. Maybe the AZ GM liked the pair of prospects better than these so-called "experts" did.

I find it interesting that you fail to mention Hanley going forward, although his contract is both big and extends into the year ahead. To my way of thinking, he is not showing himself to be more than a journeyman hitter, a decent first baseman and a rather worse than average base runner. His contract seems to make him a lock to play this year and perhaps next, but with him batting behind Ortiz this year, he is less than helpful to the team.

 

Yes, Encarnacion at Fenway would be a better choice than Hanley, but what to do with him?

I have mentioned trading HanRam after this season on other threads..

I even suggested last winter we trade him even if he had a .900 OPS in 2016.

I doubt we trade him though.

Moon I think we're on the same page.....

Agreed. Most of our debating is about the few areas we disagree, so it might seem like we are far apart.

There are moments in franchise history that with just couple of right moves the team can go on a sustainable playoff run for several seasons. It takes several players reaching their peak years at the same time. We are at such moment.

We have either cost controlled players or under team contract players for next two to three years and longer. Obviously we'll have to pony up with some free agent money as these players go beyond arbitration years.

It's not going to be as easy for the Sox to acquire great young talent going forward, even before the IFA penalty we just got. The rules have changed to make it harder for richer teams to draft and acquire better talent than poor teams.

That's one reason I liked Espinoza so much. He represented a great hope to our long term future. Getting Groome helped balance that loss, but having both of them would have really boosted our outlook 4-8 years from now.

The whole idea is not to dismantle the core group. It starts with Betts, Bogaertz and Bradley. You have to throw in Pedey since he's under contract until 2021. Shaw also has to be in the mix unless someone comes along who is actually better. That has not happened. He may grow into an elite hitter with some power. I'll give him credit for learning to play 3B like a major leaguer. I know that you see Swihart as a major trade bait but for now I'm perfectly content with the trio of Swihart, Leon and Vazquez calling the pitches. If Leon can hit .270 range than we have a very good major league catcher.

With Pomeranz in the fold for 2.4 more years, I don't feel an urgent need to acquire a top quality SP'ers. Don't get me wrong: I still would love another ace or solid #2 type SP'er more than Encarnacion, but we don't have to grossly overpay with our future to do it. Also, now that Espinoza is gone, I'm more reluctant to deplete our young core of players and prospects as before the trade.

I still think Swihart and Devers are our most expendable high value players in our system. Again, please don't take this as me wanting to hand these guys away or that I value them less than most.

There will be a big hole at DH. My preference is to go get Encarnacion but other options are available and perhaps more urgent.

I don't want to imply Moncada and Benintendi can replace Papi, but Papi's departure and the fluid LF situattion is what is providing a window of opportunity for these two kids.

We'll have Young back along with Swihart to patrol left field as we wait on Moncada and Benintendi.

I'd prefer to keep Holt around as a super sub. With him we can go with 13 pitchers if we need to since he can play all 7 positions.

Once Papi leaves, I don't think the need for a supersub like Holt is as important.

We have a good starting point with Price (6 more years), Porcello (3 more years), Pomeranz (2 more years) and cost control pitchers in Wright and Rodriquez. I'm all for acquiring another #2/#3 type but it has to be done without breaking up this group.

Agreed. I like to see us start 2016 with 6 solid starters.

Kimbrel will return for 2 more years (club option in 2018). My guess is Ziegler will return to west coast. It seems money is secondary to him (good for him). Koji can return but he has to take a huge pay cut. Tazawa may get a better deal elsewhere, maybe not. It's encouraging to see Barnes and Hembree steping up. I still like Ross Jr. He's a fun loving guy that can pitch. If Kelly can accept his new role and is able to throw strikes he can be a very good reliever. Maybe we can still acquire a low cost pen help next year for an upgrade.

I like the progress of Barnes and Hembree. We may need just 2 solid RP'ers to replace Ziegler, uehara and Tazawa.

The whole point is that we have a good team assembled. We also need to remember that we've benefited from the last two drafts because we did finish dead last.(Benintendi and Gomes). It was also a major coup to sign Moncada. Our draft position hopefully won't be optimum going forward due to success in standings.

100% agree.

Getting Encarnacion and another top flight pitcher will cement our success going foward. (maybe Pablo will shed his fat man costume and earn some of his money)

Encarnacion, a solid #3 SP'er and 2 decent RP'ers could make us the faves in 2017.

We are on the verge of assembling a kick ass team for next few years. Benintendi, Moncada, say big bat in Encarnacion, another SP and couple of more relievers...all doable in my mind.

Even without Encarnacion (assuming we get a better SP'er instead), we look to be "kick ass".

You know, there's even a slight chance someone like Pablo, Kelly, Owens or Johnson come back and surprises us over the next few years.

I'm not counting on it, but it could happen.

Plus, looking at the ages of some of our current stars, some of them could get even better!

He sure wasn't my favorite player. I completely agree with all the great comments about his hitting, but you guys are ignoring he was immature and, on occasion, downright mean. Manny being Manny included punching out a club assistant he didn't get him tickets he wanted, simply not playing when he didn't feel like it, making Francona's job miserable on those occasions when Manny wanted to be Manny to the detriment of the team, playing poorly on occasion in 2008 to force the Sox to trade him, insisting he should be getting ARod's salary (which ARod himself didn't deserve), using PED's after MLB had finally decided to crack down on them, etc, etc.

I may not have mentioned his faults on my last post, but I have addressed those faults many times in the past.

I did not intend to ignore his many poor and despicable choices.

I'm just against those who want to rewrite history because of their hatred towards Manny's actions.

2011: Bedard who was one of the better pitchers available

2010: Lost year, got Salty

2009: VMart

2008: Moved Manny, got Jason Bay

We got Barnes and Owens for VMart after he bolted.

We got Swihart and JBJ for losing Beltre.

We also got Brentz and Workman when we lost Bay to free agency.

We got Ranaudo (who turned into R Ross) for Billy Wagner.

Some of those deals just keep on giving.

For purely discussion, shits & giggle purposes... Lets take the last 3 trades for Hill, Ziegler, & Pomeranz and pretend it was all in the same deal w/ just one other team ( including what we gave up of course). Does it all look better in this light? I'm just curious what posters think...

Personally, I wouldn't have traded Espinoza for all all 3 combined.

I think Espinoza is going to be a great pitcher. I realize it's speculation, but the upside was so great, I didn't think what we got back balanced it out. (I also liked Basabe, but was okay with that deal.)

I'm not upset about the Pomeranz trade. His 2.4 years of control at a low cost is a big plus.

Some of us didn't trust Kelly or Buchholz. We were right not to trust them. Once ERod went down, there were 3 question marks in the starting rotation.

Some of us also thought we should have planned for an unforeseen injury or significant struggle from a pitcher we projected doing fine this year (Price, Porcello, ERod).

Look how bad our rotation ended up being despite Wright having a break-out year- seemingly to some- out of nowhere!

Remember, Porcello was a question mark going into 2016 as well, even to a poster like me who had been defending him and the extension more than anyone.

Looking at the history of big FA SP'er signings, even Price could have been viewed as not being a slam-sunk to put up ace-like numbers in 2016, though I realize you can't get much closer to "sure bet" than Price.

The fact is, and this is not hindsight for me and many many other posters, we started the season with an ace (Price), a pretty good bet on two #3's (Porcello and ERod) and then 8 "wings and a prayer" gambles:

Buchholz

Kelly

Wright (some had him below everyone on the depth chart)

Owens

Johnson

Elias

Barnes

Cuevas/O'Sullivan

Look, I get the argument that 2 of these guys rated to do well enough to contribute enough wins to our 4-5 slots. Nobody forsaw a 7.00+ ERA from these guys combined (as starters), but I've always hated the quantity over quality mentality on structuring a rotation. I'm not trying to claim I knew more than Sox management, because I know I don't. I realize my position on quality over quantity seems to contradict my point about needing depth to cover something like the injury and struggles of ERod-someone we viewed as a solid #3 going into 2016, but depth of mediocrity (or worse) and high risk guys like Buch and Kelly never seem to work out.

You are right, we went into 2016 with 2 question mark rotation slots and ended up with 3 due to ERod's struggles. We were somewhat lucky that Wright more than made up for ERod, and maybe one could argue we were unlucky that nobody out of Buch, Kelly, Owens, Elias, Johnson and others stepped forward to fill even the 4 slot. I saw it then as poor planning, and I see it now as costing us a great long term prospect in Espinoza to fix the mistake made last winter.

I'm glad we have Pomeranz, but I'm not going to lie and say I approve of the time and way we went about getting him or someone like him.

Yep, and lets hope that they got it right with regard to Espinoza.

I don't think Espi will fail. He probably won't become the next Pedro, but my bet is he gives the Padres more in 5+ seasons than what Pomeranz gives us in 2.4 years.

I don't think DD bet on Espi failing. I think he bet on Pomeranz being a solid #2 type for 2.4 years.

That being said, our rotation is much better now and for the next two seasons with Pomeranz slotted 3rd or 4th. Our budget is much better structured going forward, which will give us much more flexibility over the next two winters... just long enough to get us over the HanRam contract.

I do remember preferring at the time that they keep Rich Hill and let Buchholz go, but it wasn't as strong a preference as hindsight now tells me. And that's because of Henry Owens. I thought if Buchholz gave us the typical half-season, that Henry Owens would be ready by then to join the starting rotation for good. So the season would end Price, Porcello, E-Rod, Kelly, Owens. Didn't work out that way now did it?

I also worried Hill would not last a full season.

One of the longest running threads in the history of "that other site" was a thread I started titled "No Manny- No Rings". I started the thread soon after his trade in an effort to address the revisionist posters trying to claim that Manny was not as great or as important as he really was for us.

The guy was amazing. I loved his calm approach at the plate. He hardly ever argued with umps. He rarely showed emotion when striking out- a trait that I feel drives pitchers crazy, but was mistakenly taken by fans as a sign he "didn't care". Manny worked as long and as hard or longer than anyone else in MLB.

His childlike behavior could become annoying to some (many), but we could all see he loved the game. I don't see that too much these days.

Maybe we're looking to sign him as a free agent. I don't see Athletics not trading him because I doubt that they will want to make a qualifying offer to Hill. Price seems too high for the Athletics.

 

If we sign him as a FA after he's traded than we don't lose a draft choice. It just costs us money. I rather pay Hill big bucks than say Encarnacion (we need top line pitching help). Obviously it would be a gamble. Now if we could sign both, that would be a bold move. It's just money.

Unless Hill gets hurt more this season, I think he'll seek a 2-3 year deal, even at his age.

I'm not sure that's a good idea for the Sox.

Certainly, I'd kick the tires, but my guess is someone else will offer more than DD.

(Note: one good thing about the Pomeranz trade is that he will cost much less financially than a FA signing would have this winter. That may allow us to sign Encarnacion and someone like Hill $8-10M/yr plus a decent RP'er or two.

Going into the season we were looking at a rotation of:

 

Price

Buccholz

Kelly

Porcello

Rodriquez

 

Now going into the second half of the season,

 

Price

Porcello

Wright

Rodriguez

Pomeranz

 

with O'Sullivan available for spot starts.

 

Sure, I'd love to see another 'ace' on the staff, but I'm nonetheless feeling much better now regarding the rotation than I was earlier on.

Maybe ERod's last start is a sign of good things to come. The fact that Pomeranz is not a 4/5 slot pitcher, IMO, takes away the need to get 2 SP'ers at the deadline. If something happens, there's always a waiver wire deal possible.

Beane was probably charging an early buyers' premium (charge more because you seem to need the guy right now as opposed to waiting), and the Padres were willing to do the deal immediately.

 

Any price Hill gets in trade at the deadline itself will have to be judged in the perspective that the buying team will get 3 fewer starts out of him. Since our divisional pennant race has 3 teams within three games of the top billing... I consider that significant.

3 fewer starts this year and then 2 less full seasons.

Which someone very special, exactly? Let's have a specific name or two.

I've racked my brain on this, and it's hard to know how much other GMs value(d) the prospects I have suggested we offer, but I also provided choices, so I keep thinking something was probably outa there.

I realize I may have been totally wrong. Either the guys I liked weren't really available without a super massive overpay, or there just plain wasn't any team that matched up with my suggested offers.

The names I mentioned most often were Quintana and Salazar with Carrasco and Tyson Ross right up there. Of course, there others like Sale and Gray. Probably none of these guys could have been had without parting with Betts, Bogey, Moncada or Beni. I wasn't against including Beni or Espi in a deal to get one of these guys, but I would have like to have known who the best pitcher we could have gotten for an offer similar to the one above and then compare him to who we might have been able to get by adding Beni or Espi to the offer.

I have to think someone like Swihart would be highly sought after. I'd expect teams to overpay for him! Even teams all set at 3B and 1B would love to add Devers to their farm. I also think teams would love to add Holt or Hernandez to their roster, and both might start for many teams. Dubon, Chavis and Travis might be a top 3-5 prospect on several teams. Kopech, TBall, Owens and Johnson still hold some value.

I would think Teheran could be had for a package of 2-3 of these guys, but I'm not that high on him, and it appears the Braves are too high, period. Sonny Gray might be an option, but the A's are in no hurry to trade him while his stock may have dipped slightly this season. Matt Moore or Odorizzi are two names, but maybe the Rays won't trade with the Sox.

I have to think someone special is out there. I'm offering several "some specials" to get him.

Anybody out there have a suggestion on who we might get for these guys?

Nice outing for Owens yesterday. Still a young pitcher. He may very well still become a middle of the rotation kind of arm. He still has value!

Nice outing for Brian Johnson too. Maybe there's hope yet...

Pomeranz' knuckle curve is crazy good, and improving.

It's nice that Pomeranz still has upside potential or at least a significant chance at continuing his recent trend.

He's a big plus to our rotation over the next 2.4 seasons.

The big minus of losing Espi won't hit us until after Pom is gone.

I read most of this thread. Do I get a medal?

 

Random takes:

 

I love Hugh's knowledge and passion when it comes to prospects. I think some are a little sensitive when he points out that not all fans look too deeply at prospects. I don't know a damn thing about prospects so I really appreciate his advocacy of building a strong farm system coupled with being patient with top young talent.

 

I agree with Moon that not enough was done in the off-season to build quality depth into the pitching staff. The price in prospects in off-season trades is probably not as steep as mid-season when buyers may be more at the mercy of sellers. Still, I see the difficulties of seeing the future. A GM has to be very good at looking long range to anticipate future team needs way before they arise. But quality pitching depth should have been the focus. DD did pick up two top pitchers in Price and Kimbrel, but maybe should have done more when it could have cost less.

 

As for trading for Pomerantz, I like the move, short term, I think it makes the Sox better now. It would go a long way if he can help Big Papi end his career as a champion. It fills a pressing need in the run for a championship and indicates to fans that the Sox are going for it. Henry brought Dombrowski to Boston for a reason. I think he wants to bring back the spirit that arose in 2004.

I realize Young has done very well for us this year, but to me, it's easier to find a decent LF'er (DMac, Nava, de Aza) mid season than a SP'er. The $6M spent on Young per season could have been used to sign someone like Hill or Fister. Even though risk was involved with either choice.

My own preference was to go bigger. I won't get into the whole Margot & Guerra package, but even after the Kimbrel trade, I still felt we could have gotten someone very special for Swihart, Devers plus maybe one or two from Holt/Hernandez/Marrero/Dubon, Chavis/Travis, Owens/Johnson/TBall or maybe even Kopech.

So basically we will need to replace #2, #3 and #6 relief pitchers in Koji, Ziegler and Tazawa....technically we have $12m plus to sign 3 relievers. Is there an internal candidate?

 

It's also very possible that Barnes, Hembree and Kelly could easily get better to line up behind Kimbrel, no?

Well, with Pomeranz not costing too much financially, and the luxury tax set to go up significantly, we could have a lot to spend on the pen this winter. A lot depends on what we may or may not choose to spend on a big bat.

I think Carson Smith could project to a number 2, but if we place him 3rd, we should be very well set on that end of the bullpen.

I like Hembree a lot, and Barnes seems to have taken a step forward, so maybe we just will need a #2, #4 or 5 & #6 or 7

I'm still holding out hope on Kelly, but we shouldn't plan on him to be a big plus anywhere we put him. Whatever he brings would be gravy or injury depth.

A while ago, when Betts had about the 7th best OPS on the team, I projected he'd end up in the top 3 by year's end. I must admit, I'm surprised he passed Bogey not JBJ, but he is now top 3. He may still end up top 2.

1.093 Ortiz

.926 JBJ

.865 Betts

.854 Bogey

.846 Young

.802 Pedey

.799 Shaw

.785 HanRam

.764 Hill (2 teams)

.731 Holt

.583 Vazquez

Others:

1.212 Leon

.754 Hernandez

.737 Brentz

.733 Rutledge

.720 Swihart

.519 Hanigan

How about the last 28 days? (not counting today)

1.076 Holt (25 PAs)

1.033 Ramirez

1.030 Leon

.974 Ortiz

.893 Betts

.875 Hanigan (8 PAs)

.832 Shaw

.791 JBJ

.777 Hernandez (28 PAs)

.761 Brentz

.759 Pedey

.678 Bogey

.634 Vaz (32 PAs)

.572 Young (18)

.500 Hill (12 w BOS)