moonslav59

Not so sure it was clear cut that they needed another starter. They signed who they felt was the best one available in Price.

 

Porcello was locked in

 

E-Rod definitely earned a spot

 

The consensus at the time was picking up the Buchholz option was worth any risk

 

Joe Kelly definitely pitched well enough during 2nd half to go in as the #5

 

Rich Hill obviously wanted to come back, but they couldn't even guarantee him a spot in the rotation. Oakland did.

 

They also had Wright, Owens, Johnson, Elias, etc. as depth. Did you see what the Braves got for the likes of Shelby Miller? Who else was available? Not anyone on the Guardians.

 

Francona said last winter that they were looking to add hitting, not trade pitching. There were rumors that Carrasco might be available during last year's deadline, but that's it. I don't think you'll find anything that mentions Cleveland looking to move any of their pitching last winter.

 

Sometimes you have to take a risk with what you have, especially when there is nothing out there. No one goes into a season with 5 sure things in their rotation.

Well, I certainly was not the only poster thinking our biggest weakness was starting pitching before the season even began. Our next biggest weakness was bullpen depth. I'm not trying to toot my own horn, because it seemed like the majority of posters agreed that our biggest hole was a top quality SP'er.

I understand the quantity philosophy- stacking the bottom of the rotation with several guys in hopes that 1-2 or maybe 3 stick. Well, one did - Wright. The rest of the "questionable" to mediocre fizzled, fazzled and skedaddled. I realize the Erod injury/struggles were a bit surprising, but any rotation should be planned around at least one injury to a key starter.

Yeah, Porcello was "locked in" and I had more confidence than most here did on him all along, but he still had a serious concern factor. One could say we got two prayers answered out of the 8 we had after Price: Wright and Porcello. Buch was a risk. Kelly was a risk. Wright was not even on many poster's radar. Owens and Johnson were risks. Elias was a risk.

I've never bought into the quantity vs quality philosophy of building a rotation. It rarely works. That's also a big reason, I'm almost always against trying to slightly improve your staff by upgrading from a poor 5th starter to a decent 5th starter. All 5th starters are high-risk, or else they wouldn't be 5th starters.

I don't count Pomeranz as a 5th starter or even a 4th starter. I'd probably count him as a good number 3 with potential to be a number 2, but with a lot of concern about injury or extended struggles. I'm trying to stay positive, but I don't get why so many here seem to hate Buch, but are gushing over Pomeranz based on 17 starts. Last year, Buch gave us 17 starts equal to or better than JD's this year with the Pahds.

The guy has put up some nice numbers in the 250 IP he's pitched over the last 3 years. It's funny that Buch has over 350 IP over that same period, but he's labeled "injury prone" and Pomeranz is a possible savior based on a rather small sample size.

I guess a pitcher is "only as good as his last start." I trust the Sox know what they're doing, but why didn't they just trade dirt for him 5 months ago? I'm hoping I'm wrong on this trade. To me, it's more about Espi's upside potential than my worries about Pomernaz's skill set and projected future, even though I've ranted more about JD than AE.

We should be a much better team over the next 2.4 seasons with JD aboard. His cost control will also help us fill other key needs over the next two winters, assuming he finishes strong and gives us confidence penciling him in as a solid #2/3 SP'er. I know Espi was a risk as well, but I prefer the 5-6 years of team control and risk on Espi over 2.4 years of risk and control on JD. I'm more of a patient guy than most, but I can see why immediate gratification often tilts the balance on decision-making in the world today.

I would like an explanation regarding how this qualifies as a "panic move".

In the sense that we could and should have added another quality pitcher over the winter at less cost. We should have known we'd need one. Now everyone needs one and we are forced into a corner and to overpay.

I don't want to sound like a whinner but I don't like the deal.

I do think Pomeranz has a chance to continue nearly as well as his recent tiny sample size of success playing in a big park division, a laid back atmosphere and just 100 IP. He's a good pitcher with some upside potential still there, so I'm going to try to be optimistic.

I'm going to still be a sox fan in 3 to 8 years- God willing!

But if Buchholz or Kelly or Owens pitched as well as a lot of people hoped they might this situation wouldn't be what it is. There were a lot of things that led to this-most of them were inherited from Ben.

But, but, but!

We all knew our biggest weakness was pitching way before now. This should not have been a surprise that cause a panic move

I'm pretty sure that DD didn't actually want to do this, but felt he was forced to by the situation.

He "forced" himself into the situation by believing in quantity over quality concerning the 3-5 slots of our rotation last winter.

Your post seems to imply he had little to do with this situation arising.

I love it when posters think they know everything about a prospect when they get their news from Soxprospects.com.

 

I follow Soxprospects and will continue to listen to the podcast. However, you have to take a lot of what they say with a grain of salt.

When national services rank him #14 or there abouts, no grain of salt is needed.

The only two words needed to understand this trade are as follows.

 

"Sellers. Market."

 

We needed starting pitching and everyone knew it. And starting pitching is the one thing that is never out of demand. No team is going to cut us a break in that circumstance so anyone we got would cost us something we don't want to lose. Of the available guys to lose, a very high potential A baller is one of the better choices. Of the available options of who to get bent over for, Pomeranz is a surprisingly good choice, I like the way DD is thinking here, he's got the demonstrated skillset to be durable and reasonably effective, and anyone better established than Pomeranz would be even more expensive.

 

I'm also glad that we picked up someone reasonably young when we're trading top prospects away. We won't have much direct control over Pomeranz, but if it works out, he's young enough to re-sign and that's a good thing.

 

I get that Espinosa is a potential stud, but we don't need potential right now. We are in range of a playoff berth for the first time in 3 years, this is absolutely not the time to be penny wise and pound foolish with our prospect pool. We absolutely could not fail to trade for a starter, doing so would be tantamount to throwing the season away. Since we were officially desperate other teams were going to ask for the moon and stars for anyone we picked up. This is the best deal DD could make and a better one than I could have thought of if I'm being honest.

We knew we needed pitching last winter, when the cost was lower and choices higher.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2006/26660.html

 

Here's the list from 10 years ago. Sure seems like there is a lot of hit or miss guys in here and many that could have been used to acquire a #2 starter.

Umm, I think your list supports my position more than yours. These are the pitchers ranked 14 or higher:

6) Liriano

7) Billingsley

8) Verlander

10) Cain

How about 2007?

1) Dice-K

4) P Hughes

5) H Bailey

10) Miller

11) Lincecum

16) Gallardo

2004?

2) Felix

7) Kazmir

13) Cain

16) A Miller

2008:

3) Chamberlain

4) Buchholz

7) Kershaw

8) F Morales

9) Bailey

10) D Price

15) Jake McGee

17) Wade Davis

Yes, some did not do all that great, but many more did very well. Even the ones who did not do all that well may easily end up with a much better 5-8 initial years than Pomeranz will put up.

Because he's 18 and facing guys 3-4 years older than him. Also 18 year olds don't throw lots of innings and are building up arm strength and still filling out, this is his very first full season of professional baseball. This is a kid who has never thrown more than 48.1 innings in a season....think about that. That can throw a guys mechanics off but scouts seem little concerned with his struggles....if anything it will make him a better pitcher one day.

 

I specifically remember soxprospects predicting he would struggle more the rest of the year yet his prospect status wouldn't drop one bit. I'll double down on that bet. In the absence of injury I'd suspect a big jump forward when he enters his second full season at 19 and lot stronger.

Well said, and how many 18 year old pitchers ever break into the top 14 rankings? This guy was a unique asset.

It's more likely that he doesn't become Pedro.

Certainly true, but 50% of Pedro for 4-6 years may blow away 2.4 years of Pomeranz.

Given the way arbitration is conducted it'll be interesting to see what Bora$ has for an arb figure for Bogaerts. IMO the whole procedure is a game of chicken. The player has to be careful to not set the price so high that the arbitrator rules against him, but at the same time the team has to have a price high enough to not offend the player if the arbitrator rules in favor of the team.

 

My guess is that Bora$ will set a figure at ~$6M and the Sox will be at ~$3.5M. $6M is a bargain for Bogaerts but it would be risky for XB to set his price much higher.

My numbers on Pomeranz may be off as well. The second half of the season could make a difference, and it's his 2nd or 3 arbs next winter- not the first as is the case with Bogey.

$150K is a lot to a young kid with an uncertain future giving up a free ride education.

I wonder where he'll be ranked in our system. After Kopech or Travis?

Kopech is also pitching far better than Espinoza right now. At this moment, Espinoza is a lottery ticket, nothing more.

Not many 14th ranked pitchers fail.

Besides, one could view Pomeranz as a "lottery ticket" as well. His record indicates there's a lot of risk involved by counting on him, as a lefty, moving to a new league, a new park, against new and stronger opponents to succeed (at least right away).

If he has lights out stuff, why is he struggling this year?

It's a tiny sampler size.

Opps still have only a .690 OPS against Espi this year, so I'm not sure that the 4.08 ERA in just 70 IP is an indication of a major "struggle". Even if we want to call it a "struggle", the kid is only 18, and it's not a good idea to raise and lower an 18 year old's stock too much over a selected 70 IP stretch. In fact, Espi's stock, according to ranking services, has risen since last year.

I hope this kid doesn't turn out to be the next Pedro, but we won't know for many years from now.

They weren't getting a worthwhile starter without giving up Espinoza.

 

Dombrowski was damned if he did and damned if he didn't.

We had plenty of other good prospects, so I'm not sure it was absolutely necessary to part with Espi, Moncada or Beni to get a quality SP'er like DP with 2.4 years of control.

Bogaerts will make a hell of a lot more than 3.5 mill with his two platform pre-arb years.

Yeah, I'm not an expert on arb projections, but often players get much less on their first arb year.

The Red Sox and first-round pick Jason Groome have agreed to terms on a $3.65MM signing bonus, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (via Twitter). The agreement, which is pending a physical, comes less than 24 hours before the deadline to sign 2016 draft picks.

-Steve Adams

Updated with Pomeranz:

Under contract for 2017 (7 players):

$30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young.

TOTAL: $123.35M

(Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.)

Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan

TOTAL: $17.25M

Arbs (9 players):

Bogaerts:$650K > ~$3.5M (1st of 3)

Bradley: $546K > ~$2.7M (1 of 4)

Pomeranz $1.35M> ~$3.0M (2 of 3)

Kelly: $2.6M>$2.5M (2 of 3 arbs)

Ross: $1.25M> $1.5M (2 of 3)

Holt: $606K > $1M (1 of 3)

Leon: $minor > $800K (1 of 3)

Layne: $564K> $700K (1 of 4)

Rutledge: $minor> $700K (1 of 3)

Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3)

TOTAL ARBS: ~$17M

TOTAL of 18 players: ~$158M ($141M without Buch and Hanigan)

The 22 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Cuevas & LaMarre

TOTAL: ~$12M

Grand Total: $170M or $153M (No Buch/Hanigan)

Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is...

$181M or $163M

That leaves us with about $9M to $26M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M.

That would mean we'll have between $20M and $30M, or if we dump Buch and Hanigan between $36M and $46M to spend on added salary and be close to the limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

FWIW......I like the deal in that I think we got a solid #3 starter who seems to be on the up and up, for cheap money and have him for a few more years. I really don't like giving up Espinoza. I'm probably in the minority on this one...and it's moot for health reasons...but I would have given up a healthy Swihart for this trade over Espinoza any day without batting an eye. I have heard Devers mentioned for a trade instead of Espinoza....and I admit I'm a Devers fanboy....but he has been on fire as of late and still has the best power hit tool in the minor league system...AND is just 19.

I'd have given Swihart instead of Espi as well.

I'd also have traded Devers and Kopech instead.

We may never know if the Padres would have accepted either.

Drew Pomeranz at a glance ladies and gentlemen.

 

IPs/ERA/FIP/SIERA/K9/BB9/HR/FB/GB%

 

2014 69/2.35/3.77/3.62/8.35/3.39/10.4/45.7%

2015 86/3.66/3.62/3.73/8.58/3.24/9.3/42.2%

2016 102/2.47/3.18/3.75/3.2/10.15/3.62/8.8/47.8%

 

Seriously guys, he is arguably a No 1-2 type pitcher and in Red Sox standards he is an ace.

His last 3 years have been in pitcher's parks.

He's never won and held a slot in the rotation until this year, and that's during 6 years in the bigs.

He's started 22 games once in his career. His second most before 2016 was 10.

That being said, out of the 132 pitchers with 250+ IP since 2014, Drew places...

8th in ERA- at 73 (tied with Felix and Sale and Lester)

38th in xFIP- at 93 (just above Lackey and Porcello).

I'm nota going to pretend to know more than Sox management. I don't like the trade, but certainly there is some evidence to show this guy has some talent.

The juryw ill be out on this one for many years though.

For a while Owens was considered our future ace...Look how that turned out.

Owens was never ranked as high as #14, especially while still in single-A.

Pomeranz was traded for next to nothing this past winter. If the Sox liked this guy before 2016, they could have gotten him easily. So, his stock has really risen that much based on a tiny sample size of 100 IP?

I'm not buying it.

I'm just not buying the fact that our scouts and management went from not liking Pomeranz enough to out bid the Padres (who acquired Pomeranz from the A’s for Yonder Alonso and Marc Rzepczynski) to thinking he's worth Espinoza now after just 100 IP more or experience.

The more I think about it, the more I'm getting depressed.

I'm with Hugh on this one. I'd rather have gone much larger to get someone more established and less risky.

Espinoza is a big overpay for a guy with just a half season of proven quality pitching.

The Padres traded for this guy last winter for peanuts. Apparently, we didn't like him that much just 4-5 months ago.

Eddy it sounds like maybe you have seen Moncada. Although it is premature, I think comparing him to the best in the game physically and offensively is not much of a stretch. Once they figure out where they are going to use him, I think that anything he might lack defensively he will much more than make up for on the offensive side. He is my only untouchable prospect. If he had a place to play and was remotely competent at it, he would be changing his address very soon.

I actually think Moncada is already ML ready on offense or at least very very close.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's why I'd like to see him taking reps at 3B or LF sooner rather than later.