moonslav59

I see your point, but trust me, they aren't DHing Moncada at this stage of his career. The sky's the limit offensively, so they aren't going to risk screwing him up mentally by having him learn a new position. The reason that they haven't shuffled him around as you suggest, is because they want him to be comfortable as his offense develops. They'll likely have him take some reps at 3rd in winter ball and next spring. Why does he need to be better defensively than the guys that you mentioned?

 

Besides, the Sox aren't going to rotate a bunch of guys at DH, as I mentioned earlier & teams don't take players with his athletic ability and DH them at 21. It's unheard of

It may come down to Moncada at 3B and Shaw/Pablo/HanRam at 1b/DH.

Or, Shaw/Pablo at 3B and Shaw/HanRam at 1B with someone at DH.

If Shaw and Pablo are better defensively at 3B than Moncada, why would we DH Pablo and Shaw so we can play Moncada at 3B?

Not with his trades he isn't... He's made some really s***** deals. More often than not, his trades are head scratchers.

He's dumped a lot of players right before they s*** the bed. I like his philosophy of developing closers and selling high.

You won't see Moncada doing any DHing. His most common comps for athleticism are Bo Jackson/Rickey Henderson/Mike Trout. The comps are a stretch, but he's going to be a position player when he gets here. He'll likely play 3rd and maybe some left in winterball.

 

Even if the Red Sox don't go with a traditional DH next year, they aren't going to rotate a bunch of guys in that spot. At worst, it will be a platoon with a guy like Pedroia DHing once a month or so, but you'll never see a kid like Moncada doing any DHing at that age.

I've been advocating giving Moncada some reps in practice at 3B or LF sooner rather than later. From what I hear, he might be "athletic" but he's not even a plus fielder at 2B after years of playing there.

I doubt he turns into a better defensive 3Bman than Shaw, Pablo, Hernandez and others after one winter learning that new position.

I carefully stated that I think we may see Moncada at DH quite a bit, UNTIL he learns a new position well enough to be a plus (or better than who we have at DH in his stead).

It's not my ideal landing spot for him, but the Sox seem to be slow moving Moncada to 3B or LF, so I think DH might be is starting point in the bigs.

I'm not even sure a Rich Hill extension (if traded for) wld be the smartest of ideas. With a career injury manifest, & the fact that he's 36... @Nick, what do you have in mind? I'd raally hate to over pay to trade for him by a lot, and I'd hate to over pay by a lot to keep him here. I'm all for something reasonable w/ Hill though, don't get me wrong.

Too risky to extend for more than 1 year at $8-10M.

Oakland has Gray through 2019...no reason for them to sell low on him now. Unless we can pull off some bizarre Donaldson-type deal where no one can believe Beane let him go for so little, I'm not really interested either at this point.

I think Beane has a different view on the value of the people he gets back in trades. He doesn't think he's selling low, but often the experts bash his trades, and hindsight has not shown him to be a great trader.

Agreed. That's why I say grab him up now. Bring him to Boston and let this offense throw runs on the board and he will produce wins. Give him an couple games to get his stuff back together an then you have Price and Gray to headline next year with. Erod is coming back Friday and hopefully pitches #5 caliber atleast. Porcello has been quitely good all year. Wright has been the one that has suprised everyone and hopefully can stay strong to get us to the playoffs. And maybe Bucholtz, Owens, Johnson, Barnes, Kelly, or another addition can help out with spot starts and give us a win here and there.

 

Gray is the one with the best stuff at the lowest price now in my opinion. Give up one big piece thats not named Moncada and 2 or 3 more very good players and call it a win.

 

With the way deadline trades go who knows what Billy Bean will want. I have full confidence that DD will make a splash and get big Papi to the playoffs. This is one of the best offenses if not the best in the majors it doesn't need a starter that throws one run ball they just need someone to keep them in games early. I like Gray over Hill and hope they give the pieces to get him.

I'm not sure an injury-related poor 2016 performance has affected the stock price all that much. The A's will still demand a king's ransom in return.

He hasn't really pitched that well. He has an FIP of 4.50 and a 0.8 WAR. His fastball is getting wrecked and his offspeed pitches aren't making up for it this time (see 2014). Until he gets his slider back, he's suspect.

 

The haul that it would take to get him here is just not worth it. You'd have to send One of the top 4 guys, plus 2 - 3 other guys at a minimum.

I'm sure the thought process would be that the expectation is would continue pitching like his larger sample size pre-2016 than his most recent smaller sample size.

I'm not sure I want Gray as much as I did earlier.

They should trade redundancy, but I think they need to decide long term what to do there. If Moncada is the answer, he needs extensive reps this offseason. Will he be ready for 3b opening day? Maybe not. Midseason call up for 2017?

 

In the meantime, they need to decide if they want to keep Hanley or Shaw. Hanley doesn't have the stick for DH. They will probably need to eat some of his contract and move him to the NL. If they keep Shaw, they'll need a platoon for him (i.e. someone not currently on the roster). Could Sam Travis be a 1b/DH with Travis Shaw?

 

Are they going to bring in an expensive bat like Encarnacion this offseason? I honestly don't think they will. I think they either look to keep Aaron Hill or bring in Brandon Moss rather than grab an Encarnacion.

Good points all around. I'm not a big advocate to acquire a big bat this winter. I think we'll need to spend all available resources (money and prospects) on pitching.

I'd be okay with a HanRam/Moncada/Pablo/Shaw rotation at DH next year. Yeah, HanRam lacks the power usually associated with the DH position, but right now, HanRam's .801 OPS places him about in the middle of DHs. As far as team DH numbers, .801 would place 7th out of 16 AL teams.

Now, who knows what HanRam's OPS will be next year. I never wanted HanRam to start with and last winter I caught flack for suggesting I'd trade HanRam in a second, even if he had a .900 season in 2016. I still feel that way. I thing there is a significant chance he repeats a season like 2015 in 2017.

I'm super high on Moncada- not to the extent of thinking he can come close to replacing Papi all by himself, but between him and Benintendi and the expected age-related improvements of other players, I think our offense will remain top 3 or 4 in MLB. If we don't replace Papi with a vet, we will have a very young starting line-up. Only Pedey, Young and HanRam are on the wrong side of prime.

It may be wishful thinking, but I really think we'll be fine on offense and defense next year due to the infusion of youth from Moncada and Beni. Think about this core:

Age

21 Moncada

22 Benintendi

23 Betts

23 Bogey

26 Bradley

plus...

18 Espinoza

19 Devers

19 Basabe

20 Kopech

20 Chavis

22 Travis

23 ERod

24 Swihart

25 Vazquez

26 Barnes

26 Smith

26 Shaw

27 Porcello

27 Hembree

27 Leon

Maybe I'm just not extremely high on Dubon. A decent hitting, good glove, no power middle INF is good to have, but I'd trade that guy sooner than someone with more upside.

I won't argue placing Chavis over Dubon, but I see Moncada and Devers as blocking Chavis at 3B and 1B for many years to come. Bogey has less years of team control at SS, so we may need to keep our longterm SS options open. I'm not high on Marrero anymore. I like Hernandez a lot, but I'd like more options than just him. I realize Dubon's stock could fall, but if he works out well, and Bogey extends, we can easily trade a top SS prospect later rather than sooner.

Ramirez doesn't have any power left. He's no longer a 5th hitter. The Sox should move him in the offseason.

Shaw can't hit lefties.

Sandoval isn't physically fit enough to play MLB.

Moncada still hasn't played 1 inning of 3b.

Hernandez is not an MLB starter.

Travis will lose this whole season to injury and wasn't tearing it up beforehand.

Holt can't be relied on to be a starter.

Rutledge is a AAAA player who is an ok backup at best.

Marrero is all glove and no bat which isn't a very good fit for 3b at the moment.

So, what's the issue with trading redundancy here? It's almost a necessity to trade one or two just to create balance on the 40 man roster next year.

I'm fine with trading HanRam while his stock has risen, and I've never been a big Sandy supporter. I've also held deep concerns about Shaw while others here were anointing him our long-term 3B/1B solution, however, I have high hopes for Moncada at 3B, but he may have to start at DH until he learns the position. I also think one or two of the players listed will produce enough to be a plus at their position, even if as a platoon. The hard part is picking the right ones.

if our scouts think that his recent results are a fluke, we will probably not pursue him. It is determinations like this that make quality scouting so important. Stat sheets will not help us in this case.

Agreed. And, I trust our scouts more than I trust my opinion that is based on looking at numbers and scouting reports.

If they liked Pomeranz even before this year's successes, then my opinion would change on him.

What pitchers are available that there are no concerns about?

Good point. I'd have minor concerns about anyone, but with Pomeranz, my lack of knowledge about his skillset and his limited sample size of success makes my concern level very high.

I can't name anyone known to be available that I want right now.

Last winter I focused a lot of attention on trade suggestions targeting Quintana, Salazar and Carrasco, but there's no evidence any of them were seriously "on the block". Guys like Kluber, Sale and Gray would have cost more than what I wanted to give, but I was willing to overpay for someone like them.

Now, Quintana and Carrasco's stock has risen, so I doubt that even if they were put on the block, we could get one without giving up Betts, Bogey, JBJ or Moncada (or 2).

I realizE my dream may be futile, but I do not want to give up our whole farm or a major fraction of it to get someone I have significant concerns about.

If we don't get pitching from outside the organization, this team will not get better in the second half and next season and into the future. How do you want to build the team pitching in the next couple of years where the cost will be acceptable to you?

I think the off season is the best time to build up a rotation, and I said as much last winter.

Getting Price was a major get despite the risk attached to signing big-named FAs. The history of success on big signings is not good at all. I thought we needed to add another solid and dependable SP'er last winter, when the price is usually lower and the availability of choices is higher.

I suggested several offers last winter that included several highly rated prospects and players. Some of those players were traded for a closer not a starter, but I still think at some point (maybe next winter), we can get a very solid SP'er for Swihart, Devers, Kopech, plus maybe one from Travis, Owens, Johnson, TBall, Holt, Marrero, Dubon, Chavis or Hernandez.

Use the avialble budget space to shore up the pen and maybe sign a #4 slot SP'er and I think we'll be fine next year. There may even be enough money to sign Encarnacion as well, if we can trade for a lower cost SP'er at some point between now and 2017.

A 4th starter is needed, but not essential to winning the World Series, if you look at history.

I hate cherry-picking one instance to try and prove a point, but back in 2004, Derek Lowe was our 4/5 slot SP'er and he played a big role in winning our first championship in 86 years.

The days off during the playoffs used to be plentiful enough that teams never used a 5th starter and rarely needed a 4th starter. That's not true anymore, especially for wildcard play-in teams.

Depending on how you need to use your starters to end a season, 4th starters may end up starting more playoff games than a 1-2-3 starter.

A 4th starter is needed, but not essential to winning the World Series, if you look at history.

It's not essential to have an ace either, but we're talking about improving our odds of winning.

To me, the best way to improve a team is by upgrading your weakest links, and clearly our 4/5 starters are that.

My other long-standing philosophy is to try not to rebuild a rotation from the bottom or middle, but to try to add a starter to the top of your rotation (1,2 or solid #3 SP'er) and let the rest of your rotation be knocked down a notch.

I realize this is a costly adventure, and I'm willing to part with some very good young players and prospects to make it happen, but I'm not for overpaying out of desperation for marginal players, good players with limited hopes of upside potential, or players with limited sample sizes of success at the professional level.

For what it is worth, i would trade anyone not named Moncada in our system for that on young starting pitcher. (He just isn't out there right now) I would not give much for Hill I'm afraid.

The arguement about the redundancy of position players i guess i just don't get. The organization has an obligation to play their best players. It is their job to put them on the field.

With Papi's pending retirement and a luxury tax budget squeeze likely next year, I think we may really benefit from having both Moncada and Benintendi stick around. Having low cost contributors allow us to overpay in other areas.

I understand the argument on redundancy. Even with Papi's retirement, we should have all these players fighting for 3 slots: 3B, 1B and DH:

Ramirez

Shaw

Sandoval

Moncada

Hernandez

Travis

Holt

Rutledge

Marrero

We could also see a slew of players fighting for the LF slot next year:

Young

Benintendi

Swihart

Holt

Moncada

Castillo

The thought is, we don't need that many players for limited open slots, so trading one hurts less than trading from another area of less quality depth.

It will not be cheap, but you have to give value to get value.

I'm not against giving to get. I'm willing to trade Swihart, Devers, Kopech and others for the right guy.

What worries me about Pomeranz is that his sample size of greatness is only the 17 GS'd in 2016. He was pretty good in the minors, but not great. He's played parts of several ML seasons and never wow'd anyone to the extent that he won and kept a rotation slot on teams that have not been all that good for the 6 years he's been in the bigs. He's pitched in pitcher parks the last 3 seasons.

Am I the only guy that is concerned about that?

I feel like we are looking at Teheran and Pomeranz, because they are available, and we're trying to project greatness onto one of them due to our great need for a quality starter.

I'm not saying Pomeranz isn't the real deal. I'm no expert on Padre prospects or players. I think he was rated as high as 30th at one point. If Sox scouts think he has #2 quality, I think the 2.3 years of control make him a worthy target. I realize we will have to overpay for anyone we get at the deadline, and I'm fine with that. I guess I just don't know enough about Pomeranz to be all on board with choosing him as the object of the overpay.

Now, what fun would winning the division "comfortably" be?

Dog fights to the bitter end are a lot more fun!

 

Getting a 4th starter would help, but I don't see a decent field of pitchers to pick from.

There are a few, but there are also other teams that are looking for pitching help.

It's supply and demand and I don't want the Sox paying a premium price to just somewhat improve their chances of getting to the playoffs.

I agree that the cost to acquire any decent SP'er will be higher than I'd agree to trade, but I don't see this roster as being a top 3 or 4 contender, which I think you have to be to have a legitimate shot at winning it all.

Our offense and defense are more than fine, but now our pen is not the big plus it was before Kimbrel's injury. Our 4/5 slot starters are horrible to a legendary level. I think their combined ERA is still over 7.00! This area alone takes so much away from our pluses in other areas that to "win now" probably means we need to make at least one decent pitching acquisition.

Price, Porcello and Wright should be enough to get us the division, provided Wright grows some nails so he can grip a danmed ball when it gets a little damp and Price continues the slow process of pulling his head out of his ass.

 

Getting Kelly back in the pen and adding onr more decent arm there, via trade, should be enough to get this team into 1st.

I don't see another AL east team good enough to run away with it.

I tend to agree, but it's not a sure bet. I think we need at least a solid 3/4 slot pitcher and RP'er to improve our odds enough for me to feel comfortable. Kimbrel may not come back or come back strong, and contrary to popular beliefs, a 4th starter is needed in the playoffs.

FWIW, one of SI's Jay Jaffe's 'bold predictions for second half' is: 'Red Sox will shore up rotation with Pomeranz and win the AL East going away'.

I'm afraid the return cost will outweigh the benefits on Pomeranz.

I'm also concerned about his small sample size of success translating to a longer term success in the AL East.

I don't think that's a bad offer for the A's necessarily: two guys who were top 100 prospects in the recent past and are currently fraught with problems but could still realistically be back-end starters at some point.

 

Maybe one of the two plus someone like Dubon? Seems like a lot to give for an old rental guy with a lot of health questions, but Hill's resurgence seems to be for real and we will have to compete with a lot of others for his services.

 

Out of all the names above, I think I'd hate to give Basabe most of all, followed by Chavis. They can have Trey any time they want, though.

I like Basabe first and Dubon next. Bogey will be FA eligible sooner than we want.

Marrero has lost his luster.

I'm big on Hernandez, but I'd like to keep SS depth.

The last two options are ok with me. Not Lakins and Doubon...thats too much IMO, but might take that. I wont be surprised if someone overpays, I just hope its not the Sox.

Not really sure I would even want Hill...like I said, he scares me.

I'd like to have Hill, but I share your concern. I'd hate to lose even Chavis or Basabe then watch Hill stay on the DL.

I know the A's would never agree, but my biggest offer would be Owens and Johnson for Hill.

Yes, Castillo's contract does not count towards the luxury tax budget, but I believe we were over the tax this year by more than Castillo's $11M hit.

It's not as simple as replacing this guys salary with another. We have some arbs going up.

I realize projecting prospects to greatness is never 100%, and neither is projecting vets, but I love the idea of an OF of Beni, JBJ and Betts with Young giving us great depth for 2017. Maybe Basabe or Moncada may give us depth beyond 2017.

I love the idea of having Moncada at 3B, Bogey at SS, Pedey at 2B and Shaw/Ramirez/Pablo/Travis sharing 1B/DH duties. Shaw can cover 3B and Moncada may DH some to start as he learns a new position.

I'm confident Vaz will be a plus catcher by 2017. Having Hanigan and Leon in reserve is not as great as having Swihart in the mix, but we have to give to get.

I think we can get something very special for a package of Swihart, Devers, Kopech and one from Holt, Dubon, Chavis or Hernandez.

I don't think we need to part with Moncada, Benintendi or Espinoza to get what we need.

I may be wrong in one or more ways:

I could be wrong that this package can net us a top quality SP'er under team control at an affordable cost for 3+ years.

I could be wrong in my choice of players to deal away. Vaz could fizzle and Swihart could become great, Beni could disappoint, etc...