moonslav59

I know some posters seem to not view far away prospects as highly as others. The Espi trade brought some of that to light, but to me, our roster looks pretty solid (competitive) for the next 1-3 or 4 years. My bigger concern is how we may look 3-7 years from now. With the recent rule changes, the probability that we may not get many upper tier draft picks over the next few years, and our ban on IFA signings, I'm not sure we will be able to acquire top young talent like we have in the past. I'm glad we signed Groome. Devers, Ockimey and Basabe look promising way down the road as well, but will that be enough?

It's going to cost us a pretty penny to keep Bogey, Betts, JBJ and others in the fold 3-4 years from now. We may need to have some top young, inexpensive talent on the roster to allow us to keep our stars. That's one reason I disliked the Espi trade.

Just for argument's sake, assuming the CWS would say yes, which trade would you prefer?

A) Espinoza for Pomeranz

Espinoza, Swihart, Devers and one or two from Hernandez, Holt, Owens, Johnson, Lakins or TBall for Quintana

Would you do the same deal adding Kopech and/or Travis to the choice of the 4th piece?

I completely understand this view. I agree with it for the most part. I just think there are other factors to take into consideration such as need, cost, long term ramifications, etc.

Of course, I'm not for trading for Quintana if the cost in return players is much too high. I do think Quintana and Sale are worth an overpay (unlike Pomeranz & Kimbrel IMO) but not a "gross" overpay.

I'd probably start with an offer of Swihart, Devers, Travis, Kopech and one from Holt, Hernandez, Owens or Johnson. I might go as high as Benintendi, Swihart, Devers and Travis. If they say no, then we go back to hoping ERod meets expectations.

If anything that trade is too light. It took 2 top 100 prospects, one arguably a top 25 to get a reliever. The premium for a TOTRS, who is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball is going to be significant.

 

Remember, the White Sox have the right to walk away from a deal here. They are the sellers, and everyone in the league would want Sale if he was available....they hold the chips, not us.

What did it take to get Hamels? Yes, Hamels was set to get paid much more than Sale or Quintana, but sometimes the offer does not look like a gross overpay.

In one of the tweets, Rosenthal said that the White Sox were offered a "king's ransom" for Sale within the last 48 hours and they flat out said no. If a king's ransom won't even get consideration, then Sale is not being moved for any package that we would be willing to part with.

 

I get Moon's desire to build the rotation from the top, but IMO, the top of our rotation looks pretty good. When factoring in cost, adding a non-PED version of someone like Santana makes more sense to me.

The reason I still like to "build from the top" is that the bottom ends up looking like many teams' top.

If we replace ERod with Quintana, then Pomeranz becomes our #5, Wright our #4 and Porcello our #3.

I don't see the White Sox moving Sale without getting Moncada and/or Beinitendi.

Maybe if we throw everything else at them like....

Swihart, Devers, Kopech, Tavis and one from Holt/Hernadez/Kelly/Owens/Johnson,

but probably they wan't take that either.

I am almost at the point of liking Quintana better.

Sale has 3.4 years left at: 16:$9.15M, 17:$12M, 18:$12.5M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)

Quintana has 4.4 years: 16:$3.8M, 17:$6M, 18:$8.35M, 19:$10.5M club option ($1M buyout), 20:$10.5M club option ($1M buyout)

Lot's of talk today about Sale, Quintana and Gray being on the block this summer.

Would you trade any of these packages for one of these guys?

A) Benintendi, Swihart, Devers, Holt or Hernandez and Owens or Johnson

Moncada, Swihart, Devers, Owens or Johnson

C) Benintendi, Moncada and Swihart or Devers

D) Swihart, Devers, Kopech, Travis and one from Holt, Hernandez, Owens or Johnson

I'd give D for any, but prefer Quintana, Sale and Gray in this order.

I might give A for Quintana or Sale.

B is a close call and worse than A.

I doubt I'd go as high as C for any of these guys.

Your thoughts or suggestions?

Maybe we can sub in Kelly or give Owens and Johnson instead of Holt or Hernadez on A or Kopech or Travis on D.

If we got a good price on Holt, I'd be content to move him and gamble on Marco Hernandez being able to be a solid replacement in the utility role. I think Hernandez is quite talented.

He can't play 1B or OF like Holt can, but he plays SS and probably 3B better than Holt, and that is where I see our depth issue need next season.

I'd kind of prefer keeping the low cost Pomeranz as our 5th starter with ERod as the competition for the 5/6 slot. That's ideal.

I'd love to see us acquire a solid #2, but a top #3 slot would be nice as well. I know that will be costly, and maybe too costly to make it happen. If we can't get another quality SP'er, then keeping Pomeranz and all other options is essential.

Let's just stock-up on BP arms in Free Agency & hopefully we can make trade for a bonafide totr SP. I'll throw in Pomeranz on the right deal for a #1 or #2.

Never really thought of that idea, but it may work. Add some players/prospects like Swihart and/or Devers plus maybe an IF'er like Marrero, Rutledge, Hernandez or Holt.

I still think you are missing my point, so I won't continue to try to explain. A lot can happen between now and next season and I agree they'll have some interesting decisions to make, but they won't need to create a spot for Sam Travis. He's a highly touted prospect who is missing most of this season. He'll either win the full time job at 1st in Boston or play full time in Pawtucket.

Travis was an after thought. There is also Moncada, Beni, Swihart and Pablo to find room for and just Papi's slot opening up

If we cut or trade Pablo, there are 2 slots. Keeping Holt and moving Hernandez in the minors is fine with me, but to me our shallowest depth position with my above scenario and Holt taking Pablo's place would be SS and 3B- both positions Holt is not my choice as a sub (over Hernandez at SS/3B and Rutledge at 3B and Marrero at SS)

I'm not saying that Holt wouldn't be a fine second baseman somewhere. What I'm saying is that what Holt is able to do as a supersub has a lot more value.

 

There was an ex-player/baseball analyst on the radio about a month ago saying that every team wants a Brock Holt, or tries to create their own, but it's not easy. Very few guys can do what he does.

 

Trust me, I'm not Holt's brother & never thought I'd have to defend the guy. I was just curious to find out why another guy put him in a 100 different trade proposals as if the Red Sox actually considered moving him.

Where have I ever even come close to saying the Sox have considered moving him?

Yes, few guys can do what Holt can do and that value is a value every GM covets, so why is it so hard to understand me expecting something very good in return for him and others in a larger package?

I'm not saying if we trade him, we won't miss his flexibility skill set. I'm just saying that with Papi retiring, the need for a super sub is lessened.

I'm saying we will need to create roster space for Moncada, Beni, Swihart and maybe even Pablo next yeara.

I'm saying I really like Hernandez, Young and to a lesser extent Rutledge as subs...maybe not more than Holt, but to the extent that the downgrade will not outweigh the upgrade at the pitching position. If that is not the case, I say no to the trade.

I'm saying I'm not trying to dump Holt because I don't value him. I value him highly and think another GM should value him higher than ours. It's my opinion., I'm not saying it's DD's opinion.

Oooh ... Kenley Jansen is an off-season FA? I hope we go after him. I like the list of BP arms, Starters???? Maybe Moore and that's probly it.

Moore has a team option. He will not be a FA, but he may be traded.

I'm probably missing some guys, but here are some SP'ers I remember being traded last winter:

Frankie Montas

Vince Velasquez

Shelby Miller

Dan Strally

Jeremy Hellickson

John Niese

Nathan Karns

Drew Pomeranz

Adam Warren

Wade Miley

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2017/

 

Have at it. Find the guys that are clearly superior gambles to Santana over the next 2 seasons.

 

The closest guy I see is R. A. dickey. I wouldn't mind Dickey, but I have a thing about signing 42 year olds to multiyear contracts.

Free agency is not the only way to acquire top starters.

I admit, the FA SP'er market is a dump this winter, but we have some players we can part with that should be able to allow us to acquire a better SP'er than Santana.

How about an everyday player in one of the prime positions he plays? Especially 2B. Holt would be quite an acceptable everyday second baseman -- not a superstar, but a solid contributing player. It's the fact that he's blocked there by Pedroia that's allowed him to shine as a supersub.

I agree 100%. I think Holt's best defensive position is 2B. I also think he's a decent and maybe even a plus LF'er. I see him as neaar or below average in CF or RF despite small sample size metrics perhaps saying otherwise. I do not want to see Holt at SS or 1B unless it's an emergency 1-2 game bridge to a call-up or acquisition. I agree with notin's point that Holt was a major factor we signed Pablo. He should not play 3B for an extended time.

All this being said, I still think Holt has great value. It is a big plus to a manager's flexibility having a guy that won't kill you by playing any of 7 positions. It's an enormous value to a team with a DH only player like Ortiz.

Even if Papi really retires, here are the choices for our 13 non-pitchers next year:

C Vaz

C Leon

LF/C Swihart

1B/DH Ramirez

DH/3B Pablo

3B/1B Shaw

3B/2B/DH Moncada

2B Pedroia

SS Bogaerts

LF/DH Young

LF Benintendi

CF JBJ

RF Betts

That's 13 right there with a weakness at back-up SS only. All other positions are 2-3 deep. That leaves Holt, Hernandez & Rutledge to fill that back-up SS slot as well as provide possible deeper support elsewhere. Clearly back-up SS, particularly on defense would be the major bench need.

I like Hernandez on defense better at SS. He may even hit as well as Holt. To add Holt or Hernandez, we'll probably have to dump Pablo somehow, so ultimately, we may need more help at 3B too. Again, I like Hernandez and Rutledge better on defense at 3B than Holt, and both may hit as well as Holt. We may need added help in the OF, but with 4 guys that can play CF (JBJ, Betts, Beni & Young) we only need help in LF. That can come from Swihart who effectively becomes our 5th OF'er- or in other words, we'll be 2 deep at all 3 OF positions with Swihart on the 25 man roster. (Trading Swihart as I have suggested does increase the need for Holt over Hernadez, but I still like Hernandez at SS and 3B over Holt, so it's still a wash at worst.

There may also be a desire to find a 25 man roster spot for Travis.

Holt is one of the reasons I like WAR. With the Red Sox Holt has a total bWAR of 5.0 in 305 games or about 2 full seasons. A 2.5 WAR player making minimum wage is a huge value.

Again, my argument is not about Holt's value. I value him highly, and that is why I view his value as being part of a package to bring us high value in return.

Are you saying that Holt would have more value as an everyday player to another team than he would as a super sub to the Red Sox.? If so, then that's where you lose me.

 

As an everyday player, Holt would probably be below average. As a super sub, his value is 10 fold. There are simply very few guys who can do what he does. He gives a team a ton of flexibility. Either way, Holt isn't going to be traded during this season. The Sox know how valuable he is, even if the casual fan doesn't.

A GM trading for Holt would probably do so with the idea of finding or filling an open FT slot for him. If you look around MLB today, you'll see that even a diminished FT Holt is better than what they have right now. Personally, I agree that Holt should not be a FT player, but I think several GMs would think he's better than their current options day in and day out. They don't have Shaw at 3B, Bogey at SS, Pedey at 2B plus a killer OF. On top of the lesser starters they have, they don't have Swihart, Moncada, Benintendi, Travis, Hernandez, Rutledge and others beating down the door to fill in any available slot. Damn right I see Holt as a FT'er having greater value to some other team that is woefully weak at several positions he can play.

If they don't find a FT position for Holt, they'd probably still play him much more than we would.

We have some fantastic options to take Holt's place. I'm not even sure it would be a downgrade. Even if it ends up being a downgrade, the differential should not outweigh the gain we get with our pitching staff upgrade.

Considering it's looking like there isn't going to BE someone better available this winter, especially for a price as reasonable as $13M/year or less? Yes we do.

 

People who think Santana is in any way overpaid as a lower middle of the rotation starter at $13M/year, consider the Price contract and consider what that means for middle echelon professionals. The price for pitching is hideously inflated thanks to low supply as well as the fact that teams now have all that extra media money burning a hole in their pockets. I don't think you get Santana himself for that little money if he hits the market right now, I think he goes for at least $15-18M/year on the open market.

It's not about Santana being overpaid or not. It's about the fact that we should not seek to rebuild our future rotation by acquiring 4/5 slot SP'ers, even if the "price is right".

I get the value of getting Santana for this year. Our 7.00+ ERA from our 4/5 slot is alarmingly horrible, but my hopes are higher than Santana for 2017 and 2018.

I know the cost will be higher, but are needs are higher than a Santana addition.

You want a great pitcher, the other team wants one of the B's.

Probably so, but if Holt is as great as what some say he is, and the market for a top young catchers like Swihart is as high as many feel it is, and a top prospect like Devers is added to the package, why wouldn't some team give us a pretty darn good pitcher?

If not, we keep all this greatness and watch Holt and other help lead us to another ring (alert: blatant sarcasm).

(Note: I'm also prepared to add Travis, Basabe, Dubon, Ockimey or sub Hernandez for Holt if it makes a difference. I might even consider adding Kopech for the right guy. Adding Owens or Johnson goes without saying, if it makes a difference.)

Perhaps, but if Dombrowski can make an inexpensive depth move, then I'm all for that. Not for a PED user though.

...and do we want to commit $26M over the next 2 years, perhaps at the expense of us getting someone better this winter?

Sox are 28-11 in Holt's starts this year.

That's a great point to bring up when trying to convince a team to give us a great pitcher for him, Swihart and Devers.

Many poster suggest trades with players nobody wants.

Many posters assume that when another poster suggests trading one of our good players, it means they undervalue that player.

I think I value Holt, Swihart and Devers as much as the average Sox fan, but I want something very special in return, so we have to give to get. Here's my thinking in a nutshell:

Holt is not as valuable to the Sox after Papi retires and we no longer have one of our roster spots filled by a DH only player.

IMO, Holt is not a plus fielder at 3B, SS, 1B and maybe even OF.

I really like Hernandez, and we also have Rutledge, Marrero, and others as our subs going forward.

We will need some roster space on the 25 man roster for Moncada & Beni and maybe even Travis. We may also want to keep Leon and Vazquez as our catchers and Swihart as our #3 C and platoon LF'er/corner IF'er. That will mean we need an extra roster space. Havings a third catcher gives us a lot of flexibility that Holt ca not give us as we can PH for our catchers. (Of course if we trade Holt and Swihart that won't be the case.)

Whether or not Holt is a plus defender at any position is certainly debatable, but I don't think that he's a liability anywhere, either. I'm not implying that you're underestimating his value, but you include him in every trade proposal, even for trades before the deadline this year. I just don't get it.

I'm fine with you disagreeing. Keeping Holt on the roster has many benefits. I get your point, but I'm puzzled why you don't at least understand (get it) my point. I laid it out very clearly above. To get great talent, you have to trade value in return. I also feel Holt, Swihart and Devers have more value to other teams than ours. I feel several teams would make Holt a FT player. That's a huge value disparity over us using him as a super sub. I think other teams would use Swihart as a FT catcher. We won't. That's a value disparity. I also think, to many teams, Devers would be right on track to be their 3Bman or 1Bman of the future; with us, he's blocked by another prospect: Moncada.

Again, feel free to disagree, but saying "I don't get it" puzzles me.

Sometimes you have to get past statistical data to assess the true value of a player and Brock Holt is a prime example. David Price wasn't given 217 million to simply win 25 games every year. He was expected to be the staff leader & help mentor young pitchers, as he's done in the past.

I'm not saying Holt does not have great value to us, but after Papi retires, I think that value may decrease a little, and his value elsewhere is higher. To me, that's the type of player I look to offer in trade. I'm also very high on Hernandez, Travis, Moncada & Benintendi. I probably value Rutledge & Marrero more than others. Then, there is the Pablo, Shaw, HanRam log jam at 3B/1B coming up next season.

Someone has to go. Probably two have to go. Yes, Holt may be better than many listed above, but some of them do not have high trade value, and to me some have huge upside potential. That jack-of-all-trades quality that Holt possesses may be eclipsed by having stronger subs that do not play 7 positions, but collectively do better than Holt.

I just don't think many players can do what Holt does (Zobrist & ?), definitely not the guys that you mentioned as replacements. The toll that it takes on him mentally & physically by the end of the season is crazy. I read where Zobrist was saying it during the break. As fans, we don't realize the value of a guy like that because he doesn't get the credit the "stars" do.

I think I understand the value of Zobrist and the like well enough. I just think the upgrade we get from the quality SP'er we trade for vs who he replaces should be much better than the possible downgrade we get from going from Holt/Hernandez to Hernandez & Moncada/Benintendi/Travis (Pablo?).

Just for argument's sake is the differential between Quintana and ERod/Kelly more or less than the differential between Holt & Moncada/Benintendi/Travis/Pablo/Rutledge/Marrero?

(Note" I'm not saying Swihart, Devers and Holkt will get us Quintana this winter, but even someone significantly worse than Quintana would have more vale than Holt to a team in great need of pitching. Remember, Uehara and Tazawa are FAs this winter.)

The idea that Minnesota would accept only Buch in return is humorous.

There's talk they may pay part of Santana's contract. By taking on Buch's $6M owed this year, plus I'm assuming a decent prospect, they'd be doing just that. It would also save us the luxury tax money on Buch's contract this year.