moonslav59

I haven't forgotten his great season, but Trout has been a beast,

I really don't like Hill on the playoff roster but have trouble making suggestions since no other one we have is capable there. I am flabbergasted why they haven't given Hernandez a longer look at 3B. What do we have to lose? I'm thinking even Holt is a better option than Shaw and Hill.

I'm not sure the 1.8 WAR that fangraphs has for Shaw is the "real Shaw". He's got 0.2 WAR over the second half of 2016. In the context of his last years in the minors, I'm inclined to lean towards thinking "the real" Shaw is the second half Shaw not the first half Shaw, or at best someplace in between or a strict platoon player. .781 2012 (2nd half) AA .736 2013 (all season) AA .954 2014 (1st half) AA .752 2014 (2nd half) AAA .674 2015 (1st half) AAA .813 2015 (2nd half) MLB .788 2016 (1st half) MLB .685 2016 (2nd half) MLB I always had doubts about Shaw. A .795 AA OPS in 870 PAs is nothing special for a corner IF'er. A .715 AAA OPS in 668 PAs is scary. Together, the sample size is over 1500 PAs with about a .760 OPS, but he's been below .760 in 5 of his last 8 half seasons.

1. Trout 2. Betts + .074 in OBP + .015 in SLG Mookie's better on D and base running, but not by enough to make up for Trout's batting.

I'm not big on K's but the one K stat that matters to me is K/BB ratio: 6.0 Porcello 5.7 Tomlin 5.0 Sale 4.8 Price (Kluber is 9th at 4.0)

Wins should not be a major factor in winning the Cy young award. ERA- 69 Porcello 72 Kluber, Tanaka, A Sanchez 75 Wright, Verlander 76 Sale, Happ WHIP 0.98 Porcello 1.01 Verlander 1.03 Sale 1.05 Kluber 1.08 Tanaka 1.13 Estrada 1.15 Quintana 1.17 Happ 1.18 Price WAR 5.2 Kluber/Sale 4.9 Price 4.7 Porcello/Tanaka 4.6 Quintana Wins (and losses) 21-4 Porcello 17-8 Price 18-9 Kluber 14-4 Tanaka 16-9 Sale 12-11 Quintana Porcello is first in the numbers that mean the most to me: ERA- and WHIP. The 21-4 record seals the deal for me.

we're "settling" this year, but I'm not sure about next. Maybe Pablo and his salary will prevent us from trying to get another 3Bman this winter, especially when two of our best prospects, Moncada and Devers, play 3B and would be blocked if the deal is long. Shaw's a much better fielder than HanRam at 1B, but his bat is not even good enough to play 3B, let alone 1B.

I'd go with this... SP (4) Price, Porcello, ERod, Buch RP (7) Kimbrel, Ziegler, Uehara, Ross, Tazawa, Pomeranz, Abad C (2) Leon, Hanigan (Holaday?) 1B (1) HanRam 2B (2) Pedroia, Holt 3B (2) Shaw, Hill SS (2) Bogaerts, Hernandez LF (2) Benintendi, Young CF (1) Bradley RF (1) Betts DH (1) Ortiz Since Holt, Hill and Hernandez are somewhat redundant, I might swap out one (Hill) for PR'er Moncada. I can see the argument for Holaday over Hanigan, but I doubt it makes much difference. Leon will likely start all playoff games, except maybe two within the two consecutive three game stretches. I don't see any advantage of going with 12 pitchers with so many days off. If we did, I might go with Scott over Barnes or Kelly.

Here's something amazing about Papi's 2016 season: Most XBHs in a season 91 (2004) 88 (2005) 88 (2007) 86 (2016) Counting the HR and 2B tonight 85 (2006) It's possible he breaks his personal best this year. Having his second best XBH season is likely.

I know some of you are not big fans of WAR. I know their are issues and concerns. I have some of my own, but for argument's sake, let's use comparative positional WAR to see where are strengths and weaknesses are. Position Season WAR ranking (2nd half ranking) RF: 1st (2nd) DH: 2nd (6th) CF: 5th (14th) 1B: 6th (5th) SS: 7th (19th) LF: 9th (13th) 2B: 11th (9th) C: 13th (15th) 3B: 25th (26th & below replacement player level) SP: 9th (1st) RP: 9th (11th) Clearly 3B is our biggest issue, with RP'ing, C and LF as possible areas for improvement this off season. The retirement of Papi puts the DH position into the spotlight as well. The good news: our top prospects, Beni, Moncada and Devers all play a position of need (3B and LF). Devers is too far away to influence 2017, but perhaps Sam Travis, Pablo, Shaw, MOncada or Hernandez can carry us at corner IF until he's ready. A Mix of HanRAm, Young and others might lessen the hit we take at DH with the loss of Papi. Our rotation might not need "fixing" at all, as they have been the best in MLB over the second half. If we bring Buch back, we should have the depth we need. That leaves the pen as one big area of need. It won't be easy to replace Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. Carson Smith may help some, but picking up two decent RP'ers seems like the right thing to do. One other solution might be to sign Justin Turner. He's a decent fielding 3Bman, soon to turn 32, and coming off 3 straight .800+ OPS seasons. I know that would further block Moncada and maybe Devers, if we sign him to over 2 years, but I'd prefer doing this than signing a DH. We might be able to later trade Moncada, Devers, Shaw or Pablo due to having him on the roster.

Shaw's numbers over his two prior years before coming to the bigs were not impressive. He had a nice stretch last year and started out well this year. His WAR is largely fulled by his defense, which is decent (especially at 1B), but perhaps is "showing" better than he really is. I think it's totally reasonable to not expect a 1.8 WAR (fangraphs) again next year. His second half WAR is 0.2 with a -7.1 offensive factor. The 0.2 WAR places him 10th on the team for everyday players. His first half 1.6 WAR placed him 6th on the Sox. Overall, his 1.8 WAR places 8th, but Young might have passed him had he not gotten hurt or has 300+ PAs. Beni and Swihart might be over 1.8 next year. The problem is none of these guys play 3B. I am certainly leaving the door open for Shaw to be out FT 3Bman next year. I think, if no deals are made, he's got the inside shot at winning the job. I think we'd be better defensively with Shaw at 1b and HanRam at DH, but that depends on who is the 3Bman next year, if Shaw is at 1B. I'm not counting on 1 PA from PAblo, but I'm not writing him off either. Too bad he and Shaw both hit righties much better than lefties. Same with Moncada. I'm not sure Moncada is so bad as he looked in his super tiny sample size this year. The Sox must have thought he was very close to ready to bring him up when they did. A short winter season, some off season workout and spring training may help him develop a little more, but I am not counting on him to be our starting 3Bman on opening day. It could happen, but if it does, it might be because Pablo and Shaw look shaky not because Moncada looks great. Between the 3 of these guys and maybe Hernandez, Rutledge and Holt, we'll probably be okay at 3B, but I wouldn't be surprised if we try to find a short term stop gap 3Bman this winter. 2016 25th in 3B WAR at 1.4 27th in 3B OPS at .702 (.007 from the worst/.060 from slightly above average)

I can see the redundancy in carrying Holt, Hernadez & Hill, especially when you consider we should not need to replace any of our IF'ers by PH'ing (except maybe Shaw vs a LHP) or for defense (except maybe HanRam at 1B, but with who? Shaw from 3B?) I thought of maybe having Moncada as PR'er, but he's still too raw to trust on the basepaths. I think 7 RP'ers is plenty, since one will be Pomeranz, who can come in early and go 6-7 innings, if needed. We'll have 3 games off before our first playoff game, so everyone should be more than rested to start out. Then we.. play 2 off 1 pay 2 (if needed) off 1 play 1 (if needed) off 1 (or more, if series ends early) play 2 off 1 play 3 off 1 play 2 (if needed) off 2 (or more) play 2 off 1 play 3 off 1 play 2 (if needed) I can't see but two time when everyone won't be available out of the pen- the two times we play 3 games in row.

Last 10 Day records of AL contenders: 8-2 BOS 6-4 CLE, DET, HOU, SEA 5-5 TOR, TEX 4-6 BAL

Here is the AL playoff schedule: Wild Card Round AL Wild Card Game: Oct. 4 (TBS) ALDS Game 1: Oct. 6 (TBS) Game 2: Oct. 7 (TBS) Game 3: Oct. 9 (TBS) Game 4*: Oct. 10 (TBS) Game 5*: Oct. 12 (TBS) ALCS Game 1: Oct. 14 (TBS) Game 2: Oct. 15 (TBS) Game 3: Oct. 17 (TBS) Game 4: Oct. 18 (TBS) Game 5*: Oct. 19 (TBS) Game 6*: Oct. 21 (TBS) Game 7*: Oct. 22 (TBS) World Series Game 1: Oct. 25 (FOX) Game 2: Oct. 26 (FOX) Game 3: Oct. 28 (FOX) Game 4: Oct. 29 (FOX) Game 5*: Oct. 30 (FOX) Game 6*: Nov. 1 (FOX) Game 7*: Nov. 2 (FOX) *Game played if necessary Our last game is October 2nd, and we probably will not have to use our top starters to secure our spot in the playoffs. That means our schedule may look like this: Season ends OCT 2 ALDS: 6, 7, 9, 10 & 12 2 games, day off, 2 games, day off, 1 game ALCS: 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22 One day off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games WS: 25, 26, 28, 29, 30, Oct 1, 2 Two days off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games The schedule shows that we may need only 3 starting pitchers at times and 4 at other times. At no point will we need 5 starters. With so many days off, we may not need a deep pen. Most playoff teams go with 11-12 pitchers. Could this be our pitching staff and first series roster? SP1 Price SP2 Porcello SP3 Buchholz? SP4 ERod Closer Kimbrel RP2 Uehara RP3 Ziegler RP4 Ross RP5 Tazawa RP6 Pomeranz RP7 Abad (Scott? Barnes? Kelly? Wright?) Assuming 11 pitchers, the rest of the roster could be... C (2)- Leon, Hanigan? (Vaz or Holaday?) 1B (1) HanRam 2B (2) Pedroia, Holt 3B (2) Shaw, Hill SS (2) Bogaerts, Hernandez LF (2) Benintendi, Young CF (1) Bradley RF (1) Betts DH (1) Ortiz

Here is the AL playoff schedule: Wild Card Round AL Wild Card Game: Oct. 4 (TBS) ALDS Game 1: Oct. 6 (TBS) Game 2: Oct. 7 (TBS) Game 3: Oct. 9 (TBS) Game 4*: Oct. 10 (TBS) Game 5*: Oct. 12 (TBS) ALCS Game 1: Oct. 14 (TBS) Game 2: Oct. 15 (TBS) Game 3: Oct. 17 (TBS) Game 4: Oct. 18 (TBS) Game 5*: Oct. 19 (TBS) Game 6*: Oct. 21 (TBS) Game 7*: Oct. 22 (TBS) World Series Game 1: Oct. 25 (FOX) Game 2: Oct. 26 (FOX) Game 3: Oct. 28 (FOX) Game 4: Oct. 29 (FOX) Game 5*: Oct. 30 (FOX) Game 6*: Nov. 1 (FOX) Game 7*: Nov. 2 (FOX) *Game played if necessary Our last game is October 2nd, and we probably will not have to use our top starters to secure our spot in the playoffs. That means our schedule may look like this: Season ends OCT 2 ALDS: 6, 7, 9, 10 & 12 2 games, day off, 2 games, day off, 1 game ALCS: 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22 One day off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games WS: 25, 26, 28, 29, 30, Oct 1, 2 Two days off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games The schedule shows that we may need only 3 starting pitchers at times and 4 at other times. At no point will we need 5 starters. With so many days off, we may not need a deep pen. Most playoff teams go with 11-12 pitchers. Could this be our pitching staff and first series roster? SP1 Price SP2 Porcello SP3 Buchholz? SP4 ERod Closer Kimbrel RP2 Uehara RP3 Ziegler RP4 Ross RP5 Tazawa RP6 Pomeranz RP7 Abad (Scott? Barnes? Kelly? Wright?) Assuming 11 pitchers, the rest of the roster could be... C (2)- Leon, Hanigan? (Vaz or Holaday?) 1B (1) HanRam 2B (2) Pedroia, Holt 3B (2) Shaw, Hill SS (2) Bogaerts, Hernandez LF (2) Benintendi, Young CF (1) Bradley RF (1) Betts DH (1) Ortiz

Much of our near term roster seems to be pretty much locked up contractually. We lose Ortiz, A Hill, Uehara, Tazawa and Ziegler. We'll probably let Hanigan go, but may keep Buch and his final option looks like it will be given. These (25 man) roster slots will likely be taken by... Ortiz> Beni for a full season AHill > Hernandez (Pablo?/Swi?) and then maybe Moncada Uehara> FA acquisition Ziegler> FA acquisition Tazawa> C Smith Hanigan> Full season of Leon and more from Vaz/Swi After 2017... Young> Swihart Buch> Kelly/Owens/Johnson/Kopech Abad> Hembree/others The '17-'18 winter could be the time we decide to look at extensions. After 2018... Price has opt out>? HanRam has a vesting option based on 2 year PA totals Kimbrel> Pomeranz> Kelly> Ross> After 2019... Bogey> Porcello> Leon> Holt> Rutledge> Workman> Pablo option After 2020... Betts> JBJ> Smith> Wright> Vaz> Pablo> After 2021... Pedroia> After 2022... Price>

Swihart could be another option in left field, moving Beni over to center field. Moncada could also play outfield, depending on Devers' progress but it would also be nice to simply plug in Moncada at 3B for next ten years. Great point. This shows how much of our future is still in flux. We have several options at every position that may end up with a gaping hole, if ssomeone bolts or has a major in jury.

I wouldn't compare our big 3 B's to Ellsbury. Jacoby had the 5th to 7th best OPS on the team before he left, and he only really had one big year. I do think we may end up losing one of the three, as you point out, but I'm hoping some new fresh young players will be ready to take his place at a much lower cost (Beni? Moncada? Basabe? Travis? Dalbec? Ockimey?)

I see 9 arb players (see below in bold) I could be wrong, but show me where I am... Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young. TOTAL: $123.35M (Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.) Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan TOTAL: $1.3M (buyouts) 0 to $17.25M (giving both) Let's assume we say no and then count them as off-season options: Updated TOTAL: $124.65M Arbs (9 players): Bogaerts:$650K > ~$5.5M (1st of 3) Bradley: $546K > ~$3.2M (1 of 4) Pomeranz $1.35M> ~$3.5M (2 of 3) J Kelly: $2.6M>$2.7M (2 of 3 arbs) Ross: $1.25M> $1.7M (2 of 3) Holt: $606K > $1.1M (1 of 3) Leon: $minor > $1.1K (1 of 3) Rutledge: $minor> $850K (1 of 3) Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3) TOTAL ARBS: ~$20.35M TOTAL of 16 players: ~$145M (without Buch and Hanigan) The 24 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Holaday, Moncada TOTAL: ~$13M Grand Total: $158M (No Buch/Hanigan) Now, add the $12M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is... TOTAL $170M That leaves us with about $19M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M. That would mean we'll have between $30M and $40M, but if we keep Buch and/or Hanigan it will be less. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need 2-3 quality RP'ers and maybe a SP'er. If we don't try to spend big to replace Papi, we will probably sign an aging vet to 1-2 year deal who plays corner IF and/or LF (Beltran?).

I think I had us with about $30M to spend and come even to the projected limit.

Between Pablo, Hill and others who have tried their hand at 3B this year, we're paying over $25M for ... .250 15 67 OBP .311 SLG .394 OPS .705

I'm not sure who paid the $1M assignment bonus he had in his contract for being traded, but we are only on the hook for the pro-rated portion of his average yearly salary of $11.67M a year. Since we got him just after the half way point of the year, we'll probably be counted as about $5.8M not counting the $1M bonus, which might count as $0.17 (half a million divided by 3 years). Didn't work out too well.

Nice post. I also wonder if the youth of this team has, in some ways, "coaxed" Papi into having one of hie best seasons. The "Fountain of Youth" has washed over Papi's aching feet.

The adjustments I added were minuscule, so I'm not sure we will see wild fluctuations on any of the numbers, except for those like Leon and Young who have fewer PAs.

I don't know about that!