moonslav59

It very well could be just 1-2 games. I happen to feel it pretty much has to be more, but the exact number can never be proven. I think the odds are surely in favor of us losing 1-2 games instead of zero, and I strongly believe it's closer to 4 or 5 than zero or 1.

I said, "I believe" it costs us games. How can dozens and dozens of blunders not cause runs to be given up? It's possible many runs can be given up and never cost a game, but the odds are stongly against that when you see the sheer magnitude of mental mistakes we've made. I've said over and over, it is all conjecture. It seems to me, Max feels like he proved we could not have possibly lost that Yankees game with a change in one play. I've stated nothing can be proven. I see a major difference in our claim presentations.

Nobody can stay 100% focused 100% of the time. It's expected that everyone make a blunder here and there. Several Sox players have not had more than their "quota". Others have done much worse.

Great point, cp. It's easy to get frustrated over mental blunders. That frustration builds and builds with each occurrence. It's one thing to not have running or defensive skills: it's another to have them and squander them by lack of focus or mental lapses. Past Sox teams have been slow and poor on defense. I expected losses from those areas. This team has very good to excellent fielders at almost all positions. We have decent base runners, and I'm not talking SBs only. We've squandered some of those skills-- maybe not enough to make those areas a net loss, but we've prevented more runs or less runs allowed, and by assumption lost games, by not fully capitalizing on these two "strength" areas.

Maybe 10 is pushing it, but I firmly believe it cost us at least 4-5 games. Like I said, no one play costs us any game. Maybe a grand slam in a 0-0 game gets a big chunk of the credit- having a major impact on the odds of winning, but many plays contribute to a win or a loss, and changing one play, even if it seems like a little mistake at the time, can (not always) have a major impact on the odds of winning or losing. It changes who leads off th next inning and the ones after that. It changes the pitch count and possibly the choice of pitches to be thrown next. It may not be like a butterfly flapping its wings in China, but at times, it could be. To dismiss it out of hand, especially when we have seen dozens and dozens of mental mistakes on this team is just not something I can ever support. Sure, it's possible we might have only lost 1-2 games as a result of mental mistakes, but I'm thinking 4-5 is on the light side. For all those who preach how attitude, club house atmosphere and intangibles make a difference in winning or losing, there's nothing like a bonehead play to take the wind out of a team's sails. An error is bad enough. An error of neglect or lack of focus can be an negatively influencing force on a team. I'm not even speaking to that: I'm speaking to bonehead plays actually stopping rallies (or helping along opponent rallies with defensive blunders) and losing us games directly or indirectly. Blunders on defense have been more plentiful than on the base paths. We all know defensive mistakes are not always counted as errors, especially mental ones. We all agree, some of our "errors" have been mental blunders. Throwing to the wrong base, forgetting how many outs there are and many other types of mental mistakes have taken place this year. Look at the best pitching teams in MLB and the differential between runs and unearned runs. I'm not dissing our defense. Overall, it has been very good or even great, but defense blunders have certainly caused us games. Runs/Unearned Runs (differential) LAD 494/464 (30) CLE 511/480 (31) AZD 553/494 (59) WSH 574/528 (36) NYY 579/524 (55) BOS 581/533 (48) As you can see, we do not have the worst R/ER differential, but the teams that have worse also have much worse defenses. We have a very good defense that happens to allow too many unearned runs. To me, although some could see this as a "stretch", this shows mental mistakes has cost us runs. It's impossible to think enough runs have been scored off defensive blunders to cause at least one loss. Defensive rankings of best pitching teams UZR/150 2. LAD 6. BOS 8. CLE 11. WSH 18. NYY 28. AZ DRS 1. LAD 4. BOS 9. NYY 10. CLE 17. AZ 25. WSH As you can see, the other teams that allowed more unearned runs have much worse defenses than us. I can only assume our "extra" unearned runs are a result of blunders not poor defensive skills. Maybe I'm assuming wrongly, but my eye test confirms the numbers.

That's another one that has happened multiple times.

Exactly. I have no problem with aggressive base running, and I realize it will, at times, mean we run into outs. Sometimes there may be a thin line between good aggressive running and over aggressiveness that is borderline stupidity. I'm not talking about those plays at all. Not one of them. Running into an out at 3B when the grounder is hit in front of you is not aggressive base running: it's a blunder. Forgetting how many outs there are, even if it does not lead to an out is a blunder, but I'm only focused on blunders leading to outs (and likely loss of runs and games). Making the first or third out at 3B, especially when one run is needed may not always be a "blunder". Sometimes a weak- armed OF'er happens to make a perfect throw, or a runner stumbles. Most of the time, it's probably a blunder by the runner or 3B coach. Getting thrown out at home is usually not a blunder, but if you are thrown out by 15 or more feet, one has to wonder if someone made a mistake. Not running full speed is a mental mistake or blunder. Not going about a third of the way to the next base on a fly ball, in case it is dropped or misplayed is a blunder. I'm sure I'm forgetting some, but I've seen too much of the above to think this is normal. I realize personal observations can be biased. I try not to be, but I realize I can be. I have watched just about every single play of every single game for over 25 years. I know: I'm a freak. I really do believe I've never seen anything like this team and bonehead plays on the base paths and on defense. I could be wrong. i have no data to support my claims. But, I am 100% certain the odds are we have lost multiple games due to blunders this year.

The Sox are now tied with the Dodgers in Pitching WAR at 21.6. (The Guardians are 1st at an amazing 26.1.) Here are some other numbers: ERA- 77 CLE 78 AZ 80 LAD 83 BOS 86 NYY 87 WSH SIERA 3.52 CLE 3.65 LAD 3.75 HOU 3.79 BOS 3.81 NYY 3.90 AZ K/BB 3.74 CLE 3.51 LAD 3.43 BOS 3.05 NYY 3.02 HOU How about individual SPERs'? 170 pitchers have 60+ SP'er IP. Here's how some teams look: ERA- Rank BOS 6. Sale 63 22. Pom 74 30. Fister 79 34. Price 81 70. ERod 96 LAD 1. Kershaw 47 8. Wood 65 50. Hill 89 52. Ryu 90 55. Darvish 91 60. McCarthy 93 80. Maeda 99 CLE 3. Kluber 57 15. Clevinger 70 27. Carrasco 78 73 Bauer 98

Well said, and it's such an obvious and repeated flaw. Every Sox team and every other team makes mental blunders during every season. This Sox team has exceeded the norm and then some.

I doubt Swihart even makes the 25 man roster next year, and since he's out of options, so he'll be gone or on the DL. I'm not writing him off though. I seriously doubt we go into 2018 with Travis having a major role. Swihart has even less of a chance. I'll be super pissed, if we do nothing about our 1B/DH situation this winter.

I do find Kimmi's stats (not conjecture) on that subject informative. I like numbers and facts, so sue me. Kimmi's numbers only tell us that over the season we are at a net +1. It doesn't say whether we could be -3 in blunders and +4 in good running plays for a net +1 overall. Plus, even if the number was -3, I wouldn't say that is proof that blunders made it so. We're talking about changing a result of a play in the middle (or end) of a game, the ensuing results are impossible to predict. There are computer programs that figure out the chances of winning that game after every play, and I suppose someone could go back and find instances where a single blunder changed the odds from in favor to against, but even that wouldn't prove we lost a game. heck, i even believable it could be possible to have won a game we lost due to taking away a mistake we made. A lot can change after one play. A pitcher could be replaced, a PH'er used, a different pitch called. The possibilities are endless. It's absurd to think by analyzing what happened after a play and changing a play, you can prove what was going to happen next. Only God knows.

I have asked no one to analyze every game--way too hard. But I have asked for an analysis of just one game to show that a boneheaded play, baserunning or otherwise, cost us that game. I'm not going to make any claim that can't be proven. You shouldn't either. That being said, analyze the game where the winning run scored as Holt held onto the ball. Are you saying there was no way we lost that game because of a blunder? That's just one game, and since the play was at the end of the game, it stands out, but there are dozens more where one play could have increased our odds more than the one Yankee game you selected to prove your point about all games.

Look, I've never used that game as an example of a game lost by a blunder, but yes a 6-2 game could change to a win based on one play changed. We'll never know how that game would have unfolded. Your reference to 4 singles is not meaningless, but it proves nothing. CC would have pitched differently had Beni not been out. We really will never know. Chances are strong, we'd still have lost, but it's not 100% lock loss.

Exactly. Maybe not, but we'll never know. Plus, we might have handled our pitching changes differently with a different score. I'm not playing the "When a butterfly flaps his wings" argument here, but games can and do turn on single plays.

Look how long it took Pablo to actually be "done here".

That's one game, and you never know what might have happened, if just one thing changes in a game. Nobody can prove we have lost a game or not lost a game based on conjecture or "what ifs" something different happened in a game. Note: we've had multiple games with multiple blunders. It's almost impossible to not have lost a games based on a blunder (or two or three).

I'm not talking about aggressiveness or even slight overaggressieness. I'm talking forgetting about how many outs there are, not running a 1/3 of the way to the next base on pop flies to the OF, running to 3B with a ball hit to the IF in front of you. I'm not talking about 3-4 blunders all year. I'm sure there are at least 15. Sure, some had nothing to do with a win or loss, but I seriously doubt no games have been lost by a running mistake. Defensive blunders have certainly led to several losses. hard to prove, since the "what if" argument kills any conjecture, but the sheer magnitude of the mental mistakes we've made on defense have cost us more than just one game. My guess is 3-6. Add 1 to 3 for running blunders, and I'm sure we've lost at least 4 games to mental mistakes. And no, I haven't documented every tiny mental blunder, but I feel like I'm being conservative with the number 4.

I can't go with the idea of adding nothing more to the 1B mix than Travis/Swihart. I wouldn't even be okay with bringing Moreland back or signing Morrison and hoping lightening strikes twice for him. If we added a DH like JD Martinez, maybe going with HRam and Travis/Swihart at 1B would be acceptable, but I'd still like to do better.

Kimmi, I'm surprised. Just because our base running has netted us one win, we might have been +3 or 4 without running blunders alone. -3 + 4 = +1

Show me. I've provided data that point the other way. For you to be right, I really would like just one example of where terrible baserunning or boneheaded plays cost us even one game, let along several. To me runs scored for and against a team are all about hitting and pitching and occasionally defense, but rarely boneheadedness. I have said the same to moonslav, who has yet to identify just that one game, let alone several. I did respond.. I said no game is won or lost on one play, so the question is worthless. That being said, here's one: the game where Holt held onto the ball as the winning run crossed the plate. Sure, argue, maybe he doesn't get him anyways, but it was a close play, even after he hesitated, There are countless close games we lost where a bonehead play led to a run scored or maybe have prevented us from scoring one or more. Stop pretending no games have been lost by mental mistakes. We've made 343 this year. It's impossible for none to have mattered.

Let 'em peak early. We're saving our peak for October.

Plus, $31M man of nowhere (Price).

Agreed. Unless we trade for a 1Bman, there's no FA 1bman equal to Moustakas. Donaldson would likely cost much less than Votto or Stanton.

I've never said base-running has been a weakness of this team, and none of these numbers capture how many bonehead plays we've made on the basepaths and playing field on defense. Taking an extra base and stealing bases is separate from running into out on account of a mental lapse. If those numebrs somehow account for the mistakes, then I wonder what they'd loom like with just a normal amount of boneheadedness.

Even if he hits well next year, I don't want him back in 2019. I remember saying before last year that even if HRam hit .900 in 2016, we should trade him. I wish I stuck to my guns, and the Sox dumped him last winter. If we go with Moreland and Travis next year, HRam will and should get the PAs needed to vest- baring injury.